Election Betting
Quote: gordonm888Quote: ChumpChangeWill Trump be too busy golfing to run a bloodthirsty fascist dictatorship?
Trump Ally Exposed for Horrific Hit List of Political Enemies
Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “secretary of retribution” is even more bloodthirsty than the former president.
https://newrepublic.com/post/183652/trump-ally-exposed-horrific-hit-list-political-enemies
If there's no Constitution, the sheriffs don't have to follow the law as we know it anymore.
The names on the hit list were to be submitted to Elon Musk so he could hand over the DMs of everybody on the list for further evidence of disloyalty to Trump.
All I've got to say to that is delete your X accounts now! Facebook too.
UNREAL!! Meta Removes All Restrictions on Trump’s Account After Former President Threatens Zuckerberg with Prison
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/meta-removes-all-restrictions-on-trumps-account-after-former-president-threatens-zuckerberg-with-prison/
The decision by Meta comes days after Trump vowed on Truth Social to send Mark Zuckerberg to prison if he is reelected for election fraud.
“They have no shame! All I can say is that if I’m elected President, we will pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” Trump told his followers.
RT: FB really did hire a conservative group (The Dispatch) to “fact check” and they are specifically targeting & suppressing Project 2025 posts. This is insane. Like absolutely madness.
RT: They're also actively suppressing organizing efforts. Just today I've found these two posts, on other people's threads, hidden by Threads. One American, one Canadian.
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7 days for partisan political speech. This wasn't even close.
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Wasn’t close to 14 days???
Quote: darkozQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichDoes anyone really think there is a Democratic candidate that could get more votes than Biden at this late stage? I doubt there is so keeping Biden is probably the best chance for the Democrats even if it doesn't look very good.
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I think ANY Democrat candidate, if announced today, with full support from the party, would get more votes than Biden, who has numerous Democrat Senators, Congressmen, aides, donors, etc.. publicly calling for him to drop out.
As far as the betting odds, it seems like Biden has gone all in on not dropping out. I’d bet on him being the nominee.
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Probably correct. The total Democrat Party message is "our candidate is not Trump." Does Biden even have a theme yet? I have seen just a few commercials for him but they are really simple fluff, no "Yes, we can" or "Make America Great Again" type stuff, One can like or not like either of those, but they did deliver a message.
OTOH, a late change really shows weakness. Like taking 4 cards in draw poker. You can bet big after but the table knows you previously had the weakest hand.
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"Yes we can" and "make America great again" is pretty much fluff.
What exactly is the message from those? What policies do they even represent? If people are voting for a slogan then it's perfect. If they are voting for a purpose, then not so perfect.
."Make America Great Again" sounds awfully good... unless when America was great your people were segregated or enslaved or being shipped off to Vietnam or heavily incarcerated. Which time period was America great again?
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They are both themes. You build a campaign around a theme. It’s what fires your base.
America was great pre-1964. After that Vietnam fired up. Spending was set on a path to eventual collapse. The currency was debased. Around then our cities began to seriously rot. And that is about when our industrial base had been caught up to by the world.
Trump: 58.8%
Biden: 16.5%
Harris: 13.5%
Realclearpolitics is the following:
Trump: 56.7%
Biden: 15.8%
Harris: 14.3%
Fivethirtyeight's non-betting odds are as follows:
Trump: 42.3%
Biden: 40.3%
RFK Jr.: 9.1%
Quote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com has the following odds as of this morning:
Trump: 58.8%
Biden: 16.5%
Harris: 13.5%
Realclearpolitics is the following:
Trump: 56.7%
Biden: 15.8%
Harris: 14.3%
Fivethirtyeight's non-betting odds are as follows:
Trump: 42.3%
Biden: 40.3%
RFK Jr.: 9.1%
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Taking betting sites 1 and 2, there is a GREATER than 1 in 4 chance that our next President is NOT the winner of EITHER the Republican or Democrat primary!!!
I’m guessing most elections that a few % at most.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd that is about when our industrial base had been caught up to by the world.
Other than China there isn't a country with more than 20% of our GDP. In five years China's will be half of ours.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com has the following odds as of this morning:
Trump: 58.8%
Biden: 16.5%
Harris: 13.5%
Realclearpolitics is the following:
Trump: 56.7%
Biden: 15.8%
Harris: 14.3%
Fivethirtyeight's non-betting odds are as follows:
Trump: 42.3%
Biden: 40.3%
RFK Jr.: 9.1%
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Taking betting sites 1 and 2, there is a GREATER than 1 in 4 chance that our next President is NOT the winner of EITHER the Republican or Democrat primary!!!
I’m guessing most elections that a few % at most.
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?????????????????
tuttigym
Quote: DRichQuote: AZDuffmanAnd that is about when our industrial base had been caught up to by the world.
Other than China there isn't a country with more than 20% of our GDP. In five years China's will be half of ours.
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More than industry in GDP. China knocks us dead in steel. Japan beat us in autos by the late 70s we caught back up only because they built plants here. On and on we fell behind.
Quote: mcallister3200I don’t own a wizard hat, but firmly believe that 24.7% is not greater than 1/4th
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I guess I’ll have to do the math for everyone. Betting sites 1 and 2.
Trump Biden 75.3 on site 1
Trump Biden 72.5 on site 2
Average of 75.3 and 72.5 is 73.9.
Now here is the magic. 1 - 73.9 = 26.1.
26.1% is. MORE. THAN. 1/4.
I specifically said using sites 1 AND 2.
Please don’t reply….
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200I don’t own a wizard hat, but firmly believe that 24.7% is not greater than 1/4th
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I guess I’ll have to do the math for everyone. Betting sites 1 and 2.
Trump Biden 75.3 on site 1
Trump Biden 72.5 on site 2
Average of 75.3 and 72.5 is 73.9.
Now here is the magic. 1 - 73.9 = 26.1.
26.1% is. MORE. THAN. 1/4.
I specifically said using sites 1 AND 2.
Please don’t reply….
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Declining your wish. I would have never interpreted the way you phrased it as combining the two as an average of the two rather than separate, I’d always interpret that as each unless it said average.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200I don’t own a wizard hat, but firmly believe that 24.7% is not greater than 1/4th
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I guess I’ll have to do the math for everyone. Betting sites 1 and 2.
Trump Biden 75.3 on site 1
Trump Biden 72.5 on site 2
Average of 75.3 and 72.5 is 73.9.
Now here is the magic. 1 - 73.9 = 26.1.
26.1% is. MORE. THAN. 1/4.
I specifically said using sites 1 AND 2.
Please don’t reply….
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Declining your wish. I would have never interpreted the way you phrased it as combining the two as an average of the two rather than separate, I’d always interpret that as each unless it said average.
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I don’t know how when someone says sites 1 and 2 you interpret that as only site 1. But whatever. My point is that it’s amazing that there is ‘around’ a 1/4 chance that our next President was not the winner of the Democrat nor Republican primary.
If two people questioned it, is it more likely that it the phrasing is unclear or that they’re arithmetically challenged?
.Quote: mcallister3200That’s not what I said…each, as in both but seperate is how I would interpret that phrasing.
If two people questioned it, is it more likely that it the phrasing is unclear or that they’re arithmetically challenged?
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So my last comment on this triviality.
Did you actually think that if I did a math problem and came up with 24.7% I’d think that was more than 1/4?
Have the last word if you must. But why not comment on the substance of the post instead?
unbelievably surreal
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Quote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200I don’t own a wizard hat, but firmly believe that 24.7% is not greater than 1/4th
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I guess I’ll have to do the math for everyone. Betting sites 1 and 2.
Trump Biden 75.3 on site 1
Trump Biden 72.5 on site 2
Average of 75.3 and 72.5 is 73.9.
Now here is the magic. 1 - 73.9 = 26.1.
26.1% is. MORE. THAN. 1/4.
I specifically said using sites 1 AND 2.
Please don’t reply….
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Declining your wish. I would have never interpreted the way you phrased it as combining the two as an average of the two rather than separate, I’d always interpret that as each unless it said average.
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I don’t know how when someone says sites 1 and 2 you interpret that as only site 1. But whatever. My point is that it’s amazing that there is ‘around’ a 1/4 chance that our next President was not the winner of the Democrat nor Republican primary.
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So, the next president is the winner of the Green Party primary? BTW the primaries are over, right? Tell me, is Pegasus a dark horse just waiting in the wings?
I have no problem with your math.
tuttigym
Quote: gordonm888Shots fired at the Trump Rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump went down, agents got him back up and he was escorted off the stage.
unbelievably surreal
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Shades of when Reagan was shot. Trump's odds just went up again. We love a martyr..
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/13/politics/video/trump-secret-service-butler-pennsylvania-digvid
Quote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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It looked to me like it grazed his ear.
Quote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Seems like a huge secret service failure IMO to let someone even be in the position to take a shot at him.
Quote: ams288Quote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Seems like a huge secret service failure IMO to let someone even be in the position to take a shot at him.
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I disagree. If someone is allowed in public there will always be a chance for something like this. If the shooter is willing to risk their own life I don't think it can be competely stopped.
Quote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Trump's reaction time for a man his age was amazing. He touched his ear saw the blood and immediately dropped. I don't know how he could have been any faster. The Secret Service knocked his shoes off and when they went to get him up he said put my shoes on first. He's just been shot and he's aware that he has no shoes? How many people could do that. Be that aware in that kind of situation.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Trump's reaction time for a man his age was amazing. He touched his ear saw the blood and immediately dropped. I don't know how he could have been any faster. The Secret Service knocked his shoes off and when they went to get him up he said put my shoes on first. He's just been shot and he's aware that he has no shoes? How many people could do that. Be that aware in that kind of situation.
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Take the political fawning over to DT.
Quote: ams288Quote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Seems like a huge secret service failure IMO to let someone even be in the position to take a shot at him.
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Looked like the Keystone cops
Secret Service is trying to keep him covered and not exposed
Yet Trump manages to expose himself with a fist pump
Almost seemed like Trump and the Secret Service had completely different agendas and were at odds.
Quote: DRichQuote: ams288Quote: gordonm888Serious incident. Shooter is dead and two rally attendees are dead. All of this at a televised event. Trump had what appears to be a minor injury. Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Seems like a huge secret service failure IMO to let someone even be in the position to take a shot at him.
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I disagree. If someone is allowed in public there will always be a chance for something like this. If the shooter is willing to risk their own life I don't think it can be competely stopped.
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Looking more and more like a HUGE security failure.
Quote:- Shooter on an unsecured rooftop just 400ft away from Trump with a clear line of sight.
- Bystander sees shooter crawling on roof with rifle minutes before and tries to warn law enforcement.
If you see the aerial pic of the building the shooter was on and where the stage was, it’s just unfathomable that that rooftop wasn’t secured.
Quote: DRichA good thing Liberals are bad shots, a Republican would not have missed.
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I'm also assuming we'll see you in three days.
Quote: gordonm888Everyone is praising the secret service.
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Not everyone.
'Witnesses frantically tried to warn police of rifle-carrying sniper on roof before Trump assassination attempt'
“He was up there for a couple of minutes, absolutely at least three, four minutes. We were pointing at him for the Secret Service, who were looking at us from the top of the barn. They were looking at us the whole time.”
Elon Musk posted the video on X, writing, “The head of the Secret Service and the leader of this security detail should resign.”
Quote: TigerWuI'm assuming this shooting will boost Trump's betting odds, if not his polling odds.
I doubt anyone voting against Trump is now changing his vote.
As for swing voters, do they vote for who survives an assassination attempt or for who they believe will be right for the country?
Impressive
(Don’t worry - not graphic)
https://x.com/spencerguard/status/1812297960065040657?s=46
Quote: darkozQuote: TigerWuI'm assuming this shooting will boost Trump's betting odds, if not his polling odds.
I doubt anyone voting against Trump is now changing his vote.
As for swing voters, do they vote for who survives an assassination attempt or for who they believe will be right for the country?
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The last US presidential shooting created the Jim Brady organization. That's about all I remember as far as something happening politically.
Quote: DRichA good thing Liberals are bad shots, a Republican would not have missed.
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Warning: I know this was intended as a joke, but its too political, especially accusing liberals of being the triggerman. I am factoring in the fact that you are usually on good behavior. Don't do this again or else you'll be suspended.
Quote: EvenBob
Trump's reaction time for a man his age was amazing. He touched his ear saw the blood and immediately dropped. I don't know how he could have been any faster. The Secret Service knocked his shoes off and when they went to get him up he said put my shoes on first. He's just been shot and he's aware that he has no shoes? How many people could do that. Be that aware in that kind of situation.
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EvenBob:
Warning: This has the tone of "He's something wonderful." I understand you may be emotional at this moment, but you are not supposed to be gushing over a candidate in this thread. Please knock it off.
Quote: DRichA good thing Liberals are bad shots, a Republican would not have missed.
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Well, this post certainly didn't age well.
Quote: calwatchIf DJT can leave the revenge seeking talk to his surrogates and not pile on I think that number will tick up to 80% by the end of the Republican convention next week.
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Absolutely ridiculous
Quote: DRichA good thing Liberals are bad shots, a Republican would not have missed.
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Oh, the irony of this dumb post.
Quote: TigerWu
Well, this post certainly didn't age well.
No it did not.
Quote: DRichQuote: TigerWu
Well, this post certainly didn't age well.
No it did not.
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But if he was the ultimate never-Trumper, that would make him Republican
Quote: SOOPOO.Quote: mcallister3200That’s not what I said…each, as in both but seperate is how I would interpret that phrasing.
If two people questioned it, is it more likely that it the phrasing is unclear or that they’re arithmetically challenged?
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So my last comment on this triviality.
Did you actually think that if I did a math problem and came up with 24.7% I’d think that was more than 1/4?
Have the last word if you must. But why not comment on the substance of the post instead?
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No. And no good reason for the latter.
Back to the topic at hand after this nonsense and the non trivial shooter nonsense which may or may not affect anything as far as odds.....
On betting markets, using round numbers so I can weasel out of minor goofing the math....
Trump is around 60% to win at the moment. Biden or Harris account for around 95% of that 40% of democrats winning, but combined Biden and Harris are only about 80% of the chance to be the democrat nominee. This would imply only a 5% chance of another democrat winning the election despite a 20% chance at the nomination.
I'm not betting on any of all that, but if I did, I think I'd make a small longshot bet on one or all of Newsom, M. Obama, Whitmer to win the presidency as the odds just don't really add up.
Former President Donald Trump, not Biden, had been ahead by 3 points in a multicandidate race, according to a statement from the company. The company acknowledged its mistake Sunday night, well after many Democrats had seized the poll as an opportunity to buoy Biden.
'We made an important mistake on the filled in released today. On the multi-candidate ballot (Q8, corrected here) we flipped the numbers,' it added. 'President Biden is not ahead with 40% to 37% for former President Trump. In fact, Trump is ahead 40% to 37%.' "
<Headslap>
Politician Specials - Joe Biden Specials (2)
Will Hunter Biden Be Pardoned By Joe Biden In His First Term As President?
Yes+275 No-400
Applies to a presidential pardon for tax misdemeanors and gun charge within first term as President.
Quote: rxwineI'm convinced Biden needs to be traded out and that it's a mistake not to do so.
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I think that is the popular thought but I can't think of a candidate that will get more votes than him (except maybe Taylor Swift).
Quote: rxwineI'm convinced Biden needs to be traded out and that it's a mistake not to do so.
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Political statement. Three days.
Quote: DRichI think that is the popular thought but I can't think of a candidate that will get more votes than him (except maybe Taylor Swift).
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Harris, for one. Maybe Shapiro or Whitmer, although they would have to deal with the KHive backlash. Definitely not Newsom because he has John Edwards-style picadilloes in his background (and not just Kimberly). Obviously Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey, but neither are running.
Interesting thing on JD Vance.......he is the first politician at this level to wear a beard in what....100 years? Wondering if that will be talked about. Just curious.
Quote: AZDuffmanNot quite on betting but not political.
Interesting thing on JD Vance.......he is the first politician at this level to wear a beard in what....100 years? Wondering if that will be talked about. Just curious.
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There have been plenty of Senators/Congressmen with facial hair well within the last 100 years. Or are you talking about VP candidates specifically?
Quote: TigerWuQuote: AZDuffmanNot quite on betting but not political.
Interesting thing on JD Vance.......he is the first politician at this level to wear a beard in what....100 years? Wondering if that will be talked about. Just curious.
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There have been plenty of Senators/Congressmen with facial hair well within the last 100 years. Or are you talking about VP candidates specifically?
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Potus/vp. Or anyone in congressional leadership. Once mr gillette made shaving easier beards got rare the higher you went in business or politics.
