Wager on Academy Awards

FanDuel, and probably others, are taking bets on the Academy Awards in Indiana. Perhaps this is not as unusual as I think or has been in the past.

Categories:
Best Picture: (favorite) 1917 -223
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4 -112
Original Screenplay: Parasite -121
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit -167
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix -5000
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger -1667
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt -2500
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Durn -2000
Best Director: Sam Mendes -500
Best Original Song: I'm Going to Love Me Again -715
Best Original Score: Joker -400
Makeup: Bombshell -910
Visual Effects: 1917 -167
Cinematography: 1917 -3500
Costume Design: Little Women -334
Film Editing: Ford vs Ferrari -134

Frankly, I do not see enough movies or know much about the industry to wager on these, and these seem like poor values to me.

How do they get these figures? Seeing as how most entertainment industry awards are largely political in nature, I wonder how they are able to accrue enough information to come to wagering conclusions. It's not like sports where there's actual hard data you can look at.

The four acting categories are all a lock at this point.

However, I could see Parasite sneaking in for Best Picture.

I think 1917 is a sure thing for Cinematography, but -3500 is a hard pill to swallow.

I used to routinely bet every favorite, but there have been too many upsets lately. I'm probably staying out of it this year.

Quote: IndyJeffrey

FanDuel, and probably others, are taking bets on the Academy Awards in Indiana. Perhaps this is not as unusual as I think or has been in the past.

Categories:
Best Picture: (favorite) 1917 -223
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4 -112
Original Screenplay: Parasite -121
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit -167
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix -5000
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger -1667
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt -2500
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Durn -2000
Best Director: Sam Mendes -500
Best Original Song: I'm Going to Love Me Again -715
Best Original Score: Joker -400
Makeup: Bombshell -910
Visual Effects: 1917 -167
Cinematography: 1917 -3500
Costume Design: Little Women -334
Film Editing: Ford vs Ferrari -134

Frankly, I do not see enough movies or know much about the industry to wager on these, and these seem like poor values to me.

Looks like the only ones they got wrong were Best Picture and Best Director.

I had a feeling things were trending towards Parasite for Best Picture.

Is anyone else surprised at these odds:: Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix -5000?

If that is truly 5,000 wager to win 100, I didn't think there was much in the Oscars that was that certain.

Yes, Joaquin Phoenix is a heavy favorite, but I it seems there has been a certain prejuduce against comic book movies.

He won "best actor" for the role in every award show this season. Plus the iconic Joker character (once played by Academy favorite Jack Nicholson) already yielded an Oscar to Heath Ledger so there was precedent. I suppose the line came down to the fact that only 3 or 4 guys were willing to bet against him.

I wonder whether Joaquin Phoenix -5000 is the most extreme line (in favor of winning) in the history of the Oscars. Is there any place online where we can get the past betting lines on the Oscars (say right before the announcements?)

Quote: gordonm888

I wonder whether Joaquin Phoenix -5000 is the most extreme line (in favor of winning) in the history of the Oscars. Is there any place online where we can get the past betting lines on the Oscars (say right before the announcements?)

When do the books close their windows? I would cut off bets at least 24 hours prior to the broadcast as there are quite a few folks involved in certifying the ballot results and preparing the announcement envelopes.

Quote: gordonm888

I wonder whether Joaquin Phoenix -5000 is the most extreme line (in favor of winning) in the history of the Oscars. Is there any place online where we can get the past betting lines on the Oscars (say right before the announcements?)

Not that I know of. The biggest upset I can remember is Crash beating Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture, which, as I recall, was about an 8 to 1 favorite.

Quote: gordonm888

Yes, Joaquin Phoenix is a heavy favorite, but I it seems there has been a certain prejuduce against comic book movies.

First comic book movie to win an Oscar was Batman (1989), for Art Direction.

First comic book movie to score a supporting actor nom was Dick Tracy (1990), for Al Pacino. (He lost to Joe Pesci for Goodfellas, which is way more than justified.)

First comic book movie where a supporting actor won an Oscar was The Dark Knight (2008). Heath Ledger as the Joker.

First comic book movie to be nominated for Best Picture was Black Panther (2018).

Joker (2019) has the most nominations for any comic book movie ever, and the first one to win for Best Actor (Joaquin Phoenix).

Interesting that both actor wins are for playing the same character.