annieone23
annieone23
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November 7th, 2013 at 9:01:44 AM permalink
Ok, this is my first post and I literally just made this account but I've lurked here quite a bit and really love your clinical analysis of gambling odds and games. So for the record I am not some company shill trying to promote this site, nor am I a seasoned veteran of gambling. Also hopefully this is the right place to post this.

So correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the gambling system on ice-dice.com seem inherently flawed (from the online casino's point of view)?? I figure nobody would go through the time of making such a polished site without considering this this through though. Yet if I am allowed to continuously make bets with a (seemingly) positive edge, with (seemingly) no downside in the long run, how do they plan on making any money? Even if the majority make poor bets (how could they though with the win percentage tracker!) and lose their money, I imagine it would only take a few dedicated winners to drain the house. There is even a bot which can continuously bet for you! The heck?! There MUST be a flaw in my understanding of their game though, as they claim to have a 2% edge over the players in their investment section.

I don't understand. Could you pros explain why I will eventually lose my money to them (like you do at any self-respecting casino)? Or if this is just the worlds wackiest fail, what is the optimal betting strategy using the bot which will full-proof win money? Considering BTC hit an all time high of 1 BTC = $300 bucks today, a full proof way to print BTC sounds kinda nice about now ;]

Also in the hopes that this IS a mythical money tree (I bet it isn't) than here is my referral code:Even if this is not all it is cracked up to be they are still offering .005 free BTC for new users since they themselves are new (I don't believe you can redeem it until you hit a certain minimum threshold fyi, I lost mine trying to figure out the game so don't ask me!), but it was by no means the intention of my post. I'm more interested in what their game is! If the game is flawed do they just assume enough people will gamble risky enough to generate a profit? That is uncharacteristically risky for a casino!

PS. I totally sound like a company shill and my account looks super bogus, I swear it isn't! :[ >.>;

EDIT: I have a degree in English, so that should explain my mathematical misgivings :p Looks are deceiving and in the end they have the definitive edge over you, as the posts below explain.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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November 7th, 2013 at 9:42:14 AM permalink
Hmmmm An online casino that seems to good to be true that doesn't even show up in a google search if you seach for ice-dice casino and takes bitcoins. I can't imagine any problems. lol.

TROUBLE!


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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November 7th, 2013 at 9:58:16 AM permalink
Quote: annieone23

Yet if I am allowed to continuously make bets with a (seemingly) positive edge, with (seemingly) no downside in the long run, how do they plan on making any money?


What makes you think you have a positive edge if the casino says they have a 2% edge over you? From fiddling with the min/max range sliders, they're just paying at true odds minus a 2% vig. No different in concept than a buy bet in craps. In other words, when you lose, you lose, but when you win, they're short-paying.

The rest of the site is very obviously (and admittedly) MLM -- you get paid for referrals and, presumably, their handle. The way you make money is to not play at all, but refer a bunch of players into your downline and hope they play. The site doesn't cost the owners much to run, so it's basically free money for them.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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November 7th, 2013 at 10:50:37 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

What makes you think you have a positive edge if the casino says they have a 2% edge over you? From fiddling with the min/max range sliders, they're just paying at true odds minus a 2% vig. No different in concept than a buy bet in craps. In other words, when you lose, you lose, but when you win, they're short-paying.

The rest of the site is very obviously (and admittedly) MLM -- you get paid for referrals and, presumably, their handle. The way you make money is to not play at all, but refer a bunch of players into your downline and hope they play. The site doesn't cost the owners much to run, so it's basically free money for them.



ME, just a quick question: what's MLM? From context, I'm getting something like "Members Line-up Members", sort of a chain recruitment thing. But I haven't seen the abbreviation before. Thanks!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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November 7th, 2013 at 10:53:05 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

ME, just a quick question: what's MLM? From context, I'm getting something like "Members Line-up Members", sort of a chain recruitment thing. But I haven't seen the abbreviation before. Thanks!



Multi Level Marketing.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
chickenman
chickenman
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November 7th, 2013 at 10:53:44 AM permalink
Try this it may not be what you think
Zcore13
Zcore13
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November 7th, 2013 at 11:48:15 AM permalink
Quote: chickenman

Try this it may not be what you think



I'm pretty confident it is what I think... Multi Level Marketing is when people get paid based on people under them referring or selling. Many are classic pyramid schemes, where people early in on the "game" make some money and just about everyone else loses out.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
annieone23
annieone23
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November 7th, 2013 at 2:27:59 PM permalink
Alrighty! I appreciate your insight. Like I said, I am not the Wizard by any stretch of the imagination. So I see the sliders allow you to make a bet which it claims has, for example, a 51% chance of winning. In my mind that appears to be the edge. I have a 1% edge over the casino in the game, meaning if I play long enough I will win the most. That is my mental thought process.

So, pardoning my ignorance, how do you see it as "true odds minus a 2% vig." It's not that I don't believe you, it is that I don't understand it haha. Help me correct where I must be wrong!

Also as for the MLM scheme, I'm not a fan. Even if everyone who clicked my referral became a player, I appear to only get paid if I either have 2BTC in the game at the close of every day OR have spent .1 BTC in that day. So either keep ~600 dollars in the game forever in the hopes of getting paid or spend about 30 bucks a day. I can see where they hope to profit off that "tempting" offer. (Arguably BTC isn't always 300 bucks a coin but it is still a lot of money usually)
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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November 7th, 2013 at 2:55:55 PM permalink
Quote: annieone23

So, pardoning my ignorance, how do you see it as "true odds minus a 2% vig." It's not that I don't believe you, it is that I don't understand it haha. Help me correct where I must be wrong!


Just play with the sliders. Push them all the way together; you have 1% chance of winning but you get paid 98 (not 100) for 1 on a win. Slide them all the way apart; you have 100% chance of winning but you get paid 0.98 (not 1) for 1 on a win. There's your 2% vig. It's a simple formula: calculate the probability of a win, take the multiplicative inverse (divide into 1) and then take 2 points off the top. What's left is what you get back if you win. If you lose, you lose it all.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
thecesspit
thecesspit
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November 7th, 2013 at 3:03:56 PM permalink
Quote: annieone23

Alrighty! I appreciate your insight. Like I said, I am not the Wizard by any stretch of the imagination. So I see the sliders allow you to make a bet which it claims has, for example, a 51% chance of winning. In my mind that appears to be the edge. I have a 1% edge over the casino in the game, meaning if I play long enough I will win the most. That is my mental thought process.



Having a 51% chance of winning doesn't mean you win twice your stake back. You win about 1.98 times. So you don't have an edge. The game is constructed to return less than it should on a win.

Quite easy for them to stay in business. Why anyone would want to gamble on such a dreary site with bitcoins, I don't know.... they could at least dress it up, like a slot machine does.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
annieone23
annieone23
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November 7th, 2013 at 4:15:46 PM permalink
Ooh! Ok, I finally got it, I think. My degree is in English, not Math! In laymans terms, you win less than they do on a win every time. So over time they will always win more because they get your entire stake while you only get your stake plus a small percentage back. Right?
chickenman
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November 8th, 2013 at 9:34:26 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Quote: chickenman

Try this it may not be what you think



I'm pretty confident it is what I think... Multi Level Marketing is when people get paid based on people under them referring or selling. Many are classic pyramid schemes, where people early in on the "game" make some money and just about everyone else loses out.


ZCore13


Uh, yeah, it's a little hard to convey tongue-in-cheek on the internet so I usually don't bother so YMMV
Zcore13
Zcore13
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November 8th, 2013 at 9:47:28 AM permalink
Quote: chickenman

Quote: Zcore13

Quote: chickenman

Try this it may not be what you think



I'm pretty confident it is what I think... Multi Level Marketing is when people get paid based on people under them referring or selling. Many are classic pyramid schemes, where people early in on the "game" make some money and just about everyone else loses out.


ZCore13


Uh, yeah, it's a little hard to convey tongue-in-cheek on the internet so I usually don't bother so YMMV




Yam Mild Mosaic Virus ???



ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
chickenman
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November 8th, 2013 at 9:50:16 AM permalink
touche, forgive us thinking you have no sense of humor...
Doc
Doc
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November 8th, 2013 at 10:06:47 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Yam Mild Mosaic Virus ???



You reminded me of a comic strip for today.
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