nj2741
nj2741
Joined: Sep 8, 2016
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:39:56 PM permalink
Wanted to ask the math experts if betting the under is profitable with -105 odds instead of -110 given the stats below.Thank you

Total Line Bets in MLB
WINNER SAMPLE SIZE PROBABILITY
Over 11315 46.63%
Under 11812 48.68%
Push 1139 4.69%
Total 24266 100.00%
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:54:12 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

Wanted to ask the math experts if betting the under is profitable with -105 odds instead of -110 given the stats below.Thank you

Total Line Bets in MLB
WINNER SAMPLE SIZE PROBABILITY
Over 11315 46.63%
Under 11812 48.68%
Push 1139 4.69%
Total 24266 100.00%



To be profitable at -105 you need to be right 105/205 percent of the time. So 51.2%. If you had bet every under in the above sample you would have a win to lose of 48.68 / (48.68+46.63) = 51.08%.

So not profitable. Flat betting you would be down 68.75 units.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:55:59 PM permalink
Not profitable.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
nj2741
August 30th, 2018 at 8:56:47 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

To be profitable at -105 you need to be right 105/205 percent of the time. So 51.2%. If you had bet every under in the above sample you would have a win to lose of 48.68 / (48.68+46.63) = 51.08%.

So not profitable. Flat betting you would be down 68.75 units.



You are missing pushes. But still not profitable.
unJon
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:58:34 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

You are missing pushes. But still not profitable.

Can you flush that out? I excluded pushes from the denominator on purpose because they donít matter. You donít pay the vig on a push.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:59:22 PM permalink
If an Under bet of one unit wins 48.68% of the time at -105, then it returns .4636 units. If that Under bet loses 46.63% of the time then:

WIN 0.4636 units
Lose 0.4663 units

So, NO, this is not a profitable bet. It is close, though.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
nj2741
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:02:16 PM permalink
Thanks for prompt response gentleman
nj2741
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:03:29 PM permalink
What about with 8 cent lines like pinnacle has?
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:06:34 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Can you flush that out? I excluded pushes from the denominator on purpose because they donít matter. You donít pay the vig on a push.



Nope, youíre right. The explanation confused me, but the math was right.
nj2741
nj2741
Joined: Sep 8, 2016
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:15:09 PM permalink
Can you guys do the math on -104 please?

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