nj2741
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:39:56 PM permalink
Wanted to ask the math experts if betting the under is profitable with -105 odds instead of -110 given the stats below.Thank you

Total Line Bets in MLB
WINNER SAMPLE SIZE PROBABILITY
Over 11315 46.63%
Under 11812 48.68%
Push 1139 4.69%
Total 24266 100.00%
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:54:12 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

Wanted to ask the math experts if betting the under is profitable with -105 odds instead of -110 given the stats below.Thank you

Total Line Bets in MLB
WINNER SAMPLE SIZE PROBABILITY
Over 11315 46.63%
Under 11812 48.68%
Push 1139 4.69%
Total 24266 100.00%



To be profitable at -105 you need to be right 105/205 percent of the time. So 51.2%. If you had bet every under in the above sample you would have a win to lose of 48.68 / (48.68+46.63) = 51.08%.

So not profitable. Flat betting you would be down 68.75 units.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FinsRule
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:55:59 PM permalink
Not profitable.
FinsRule
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nj2741
August 30th, 2018 at 8:56:47 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

To be profitable at -105 you need to be right 105/205 percent of the time. So 51.2%. If you had bet every under in the above sample you would have a win to lose of 48.68 / (48.68+46.63) = 51.08%.

So not profitable. Flat betting you would be down 68.75 units.



You are missing pushes. But still not profitable.
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:58:34 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

You are missing pushes. But still not profitable.

Can you flush that out? I excluded pushes from the denominator on purpose because they don’t matter. You don’t pay the vig on a push.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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August 30th, 2018 at 8:59:22 PM permalink
If an Under bet of one unit wins 48.68% of the time at -105, then it returns .4636 units. If that Under bet loses 46.63% of the time then:

WIN 0.4636 units
Lose 0.4663 units

So, NO, this is not a profitable bet. It is close, though.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:02:16 PM permalink
Thanks for prompt response gentleman
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:03:29 PM permalink
What about with 8 cent lines like pinnacle has?
FinsRule
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:06:34 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Can you flush that out? I excluded pushes from the denominator on purpose because they don’t matter. You don’t pay the vig on a push.



Nope, you’re right. The explanation confused me, but the math was right.
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:15:09 PM permalink
Can you guys do the math on -104 please?
FinsRule
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:16:46 PM permalink
Lol. No. I’m going to bed. But my guess is that it makes it the tiniest bit profitable.
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:17:21 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

Can you guys do the math on -104 please?

Just divide the Under wins by the over wins and you get the number you are looking for (the amount of juice that makes this a break even bet).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:18:31 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Lol. No. I’m going to bed. But my guess is that it makes it the tiniest bit profitable.

Correct.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FinsRule
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:19:40 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Lol. No. I’m going to bed. But my guess is that it makes it the tiniest bit profitable.



I did the math because I’m a fool. Now I can sleep in peace. 50.98
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:20:55 PM permalink
You da man!so is it +ev?
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:23:10 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

You da man!so is it +ev?

Flat betting that sample at -104 would make you up 44.4 units. Past performance is not indicative of future results . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
nj2741
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:24:31 PM permalink
Eureka!!the wizard has found a glitch in the f$!#ing matrix.Daddy likes

(Mod edit. Mask your swears. This board is PG. Warning. )
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Aug 31, 2018
FinsRule
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:28:03 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Flat betting that sample at -104 would make you up 44.4 units. Past performance is not indicative of future results . . .



44 units makes it sound better than it is. You’d be much better off investing that money instead of gambling it for that return. Unless you can get good comps.
unJon
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August 30th, 2018 at 9:39:10 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

44 units makes it sound better than it is. You’d be much better off investing that money instead of gambling it for that return. Unless you can get good comps.

Agreed. It’s 44.4 units over the course of 23,127 wagers. An absurdly low edge. I’m exhausted so may have messed up the formula, but I get a full Kelly bet of $9.41 if you had a $10k bankroll.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
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August 31st, 2018 at 3:56:08 AM permalink
Quote: nj2741

Eureka!!the wizard has found a glitch in the f $!#ing matrix.Daddy likes

Well the results in what you posted are only like 0.6 standard deviations off of a coin flip. So I wouldn’t recommend you draw any glitch-in-the-matrix conclusions. Like FinsRule said, way better off investing the money.

Above is totally wrong. Never mind. It’s more than six sigma. I need coffee.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Aug 31, 2018
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
nj2741
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August 31st, 2018 at 12:10:08 PM permalink
Why does everyone have to rain on my parade?with those mlb stats -104 wins all day
michael99000
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August 31st, 2018 at 12:47:09 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

Why does everyone have to rain on my parade?with those mlb stats -104 wins all day



It’s really nothing noteworthy or even good. You’d have to bet on every single mlb game played for 11 years to be up 44 units. Nothing to see here
nj2741
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August 31st, 2018 at 1:13:10 PM permalink
So your saying theres a chance?
nj2741
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August 31st, 2018 at 4:18:44 PM permalink
What if each unit was 20k?
unJon
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August 31st, 2018 at 4:25:32 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

What if each unit was 20k?

Then your Risk of Ruin would be non-negligible unless your bankroll was more than $21 million.

ETA:

The real problem is that this is not a natural phenomenon that is independent of your bets. $20k bets on MLB totals would probably move the line and eliminate this effect.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TomG
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September 2nd, 2018 at 9:56:31 PM permalink
Quote: nj2741

Why does everyone have to rain on my parade?with those mlb stats -104 wins all day



With those stats, it wins some days and loses other days. It almost never wins all day. You are getting somewhat close to a wizard approved betting system that works. Because no one offers -104 on MLB unders and because even if they did the edge is too close to zero, you'll have to dig a little further
michael99000
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September 3rd, 2018 at 11:27:45 AM permalink
Quote: nj2741

What if each unit was 20k?



As long as you’re ok with putting $320,000 at risk each night for 11 years
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