Dice setter meetup at ELEMENTS casino, Brantford
I can understand that. I really don't see why any doubters would expect someone like you to risk real money at a craps table.Quote: LaymedownI will gladly compete in any offering, but not for money.
Quote: LaymedownIf I use my favorite dice set rolling tons of NINES, I could just bet that 9 and in 2000 rolls I may average about 240 NINES ...
Assuming a random roll, 2,000 rolls should result in 222.2 nines. The probability of rolling 240 or more nines is 11.03%. Interested in a bet on it?
Quote: rainmanBecause you make crazy ass claims like this,
"As compared to many other TOURIST style casino's, I recommend this place for playing craps. Those visiting from vegas can be assured they can make money here."
That's not a crazy comment. Here i'll re-word it for you.
It is most likely that any craps enthusiasts playing here will make money from the amount of dice setters attending on a regular basis.
Quote: WizardAssuming a random roll, 2,000 rolls should result in 222.2 nines. The probability of rolling 240 or more nines is 11.03%. Interested in a bet on it?
Hang on for a second, what are you saying here? are you saying that if a shooter picks up the dice with out setting them will in fact roll 222 nines?
I just rolled 6 nine's back to back on sunday, If I was to wager against a random shooter, I would have to give some kind of odds.
If I did wager I would give 2 to one that in 2000 rolls, a random shooter will CRAP OUT and not be able to roll more than 6 of the same numbers back to back.
Actually that still isn't fair.
I WOULD OFFER 10 to 1 IF A RANDOM SHOOTER CAN MAKE ANY NUMBER 6 TIMES IN A ROW BACK TO BACK. But i'm still thinking i'm not offering enough odds to make it fair.
What if said I can roll 300 nines within 2000 rolls, how much would you wager? Keep in mind, that's ONE in SEVEN rolls.
I am very confident that I can do it, and would most likely put every penny I have at risk.
SHOOTER'S using RANDOM ROLLS = SEVEN OUT
DICE SETTERS most likely will seven out but not as much as random shooters.
Dice setters will win 75% of any challenge against those just throwing dice randomly. SO THINK LONG AND HARD BEFORE ENTERING YOURSELF INTO A CHALLENGE.
Quote: LaymedownWhat if said I can roll 300 nines within 2000 rolls, how much would you wager? Keep in mind, that's ONE in SEVEN rolls.
I am very confident that I can do it, and would most likely put every penny I have at risk.
I suspect that around here you might get a lot of takers on that wager.
Wizard, I think I would be willing to wager that his result for 2,000 rolls would NOT be 222.2 nines.Quote: WizardAssuming a random roll, 2,000 rolls should result in 222.2 nines. The probability of rolling 240 or more nines is 11.03%. Interested in a bet on it?
;-)
Quote: LaymedownWhat if said I can roll 300 nines within 2000 rolls, how much would you wager? Keep in mind, that's ONE in SEVEN rolls.
I am very confident that I can do it, and would most likely put every penny I have at risk.
Oh WOW! A dice setter that will put his money where his mouth is. As If!!!
I think there are two wagers I'd like to make.
1) No way in hell, this LayMeDown fella would be stupid enough to actually put his money behind this wager. All sorts of stupid logistical obstacles would materialise or he would demand appropriate odds
2) If he was so stupid as to proceed at say even money, I'd like to make a serious bet against him.
Was it him or someone else that said they were independently wealthy?Quote: OnceDearOh WOW! A dice setter that will put his money where his mouth is. As If!!!
I think there are two wagers I'd like to make.
1) No way in hell, this LayMeDown fella would be stupid enough to actually put his money behind this wager. All sorts of stupid logistical obstacles would materialise or he would demand appropriate odds
2) If he was so stupid as to proceed at say even money, I'd like to make a serious bet against him.
No reason a DI should ask for odds since they claim they can defy the odds with skill. They should be the ones giving odds.
Would you give a professional pool player odds on a shot he claims he can make?
No reason for a DI to get worse odds than they can get on Fremont street. Otherwise why play just for bragging rights.Quote: AxelWolfNo reason a DI should ask for odds since they claim they can defy the odds with skill. They should be the ones giving odds.
If this bet goes through, I know no respectable gambler is going to want my flea sized bet, could I piggy back on your wager for 20?
I haven't suggested a wager, Im fairly sure this will never happened since I think this guy is full of it. I would happy to be proven wrong. if I were to take some action on a wager you are welcome to have some of it. Anyone who could do what he's claiming would not be wasting their time here since they could have access to a money printing machine 24/7 365.Quote: petroglyphNo reason for a DI to get worse odds than they can get on Fremont street. Otherwise why play just for bragging rights.
If this bet goes through, I know no respectable gambler is going to want my flea sized bet, could I piggy back on your wager for 20?
Quote: AcesAndEightsI bet that LMD will not successfully complete any wager with any WoV member regarding dice control. I'll give you +120 on the YES. (Offer void for LMD, since he could change the outcome.)
Damn it. I guess this post looks silly now given the post directly above it.
I'm not sure how you gamble, but in my neck of the woods, it's ok to bet on trends and trending shooters.
Humble yourself. On Sunday I rolled 11 nines out of 40 rolls. That's one in four using my favorite dice set.
Imagine that!Quote: LaymedownI DO NOT MAKE PERSONAL BETS
That's what most all the people who are full of it (and they know that they are full of it) say when it comes to DI or systems.
Can you explain why is is that you won't/don't make personal bets? I love to hear a good yarn.
I've said it here and other threads on here many many times, how do you not understand that?
I'm talking about setting the dice to your favorite set to possibly avoid rolling sevens and now you think i'm some kind of DICE GURU.
Sorry if I miss-informed you.
AxelWolf I'm sure if you play craps you use a favorite dice set correct?
You can't tell me you simply pickup the dice and toss them to the back wall? If so I strongly suggest walking up to the table and just tip the dealers with all your chips, because you will never ever ever show a consistent profit as a craps player.
Maybe you're one of those guys at the table that bet smart with dice setters? who knows till I hear a reply.
Quote: LaymedownWhat if said I can roll 300 nines within 2000 rolls, how much would you wager? Keep in mind, that's ONE in SEVEN rolls.
I am very confident that I can do it, and would most likely put every penny I have at risk.
And here is why you would have to be incredibly stupid to make that bet.
It is 99.999995% likely that you would fail to roll at least 300 nines within 2000 rolls.
I know you won't take the wager, but I would give you odds of my $100,000 against your $50,000.
I suspect there are members here who would love action in this wager and might even give you odds of 1000:1
T'aint happening though, because your claim is utterly nonsensical.
I see you don't want to put your money where your mouth is after all.
Quote: LaymedownPlease understand, I WILL NOT BET. As confident as I may be about my dice skills. I will not bet even if you meetup at the casino I play,
Money talks.
B.S. walks.
See ya.
100% of the bets on my nine will show profit especially when the payout is 1.5 to my wager. I can not lose on the nine. Sorry. Keep your money. I prefer to earn it at the tables.
However I will give you an offering if you do happen to be in the neighborhood. Simply bet the NINE when I have the dice and I can assure you that you will make profit too in the long term.
There is also another shooter that makes tons of eights, so if he is there that two guys and two numbers that will most likely guarantee you profits in the long term.
If there was more shooters like this, then we all can prosper on these shooters.
OK, I see that.Quote: LaymedownI am very confident that I can do it, and would most likely put every penny I have at risk.
OK, now I guess that means that Laymedown doesn't have a cent.Quote: LaymedownPlease understand, I WILL NOT BET.
Quote: LaymedownI put up my money at the CASINO betting the 9 when I shoot the dice. Your graph is wrong, wrong wrong, because I've won every time so far. The nine has not failed to show profit. True I can not shoot 2000 times, but fact is when I do shoot the dice for maybe 500 numbers in a 5-6 hr day at the casino,
100% of the bets on my nine will show profit especially when the payout is 1.5 to my wager. I can not lose on the nine. Sorry. Keep your money. I prefer to earn it at the tables.
Easiest $100,000 you could ever make, but you prefer to make it from the casino.
What if the members here put up a million bucks against your $100,000? I'm sure we could arrange that.
Please stop it with the talking craps.
Quote: LaymedownI can not lose on the nine.
Wanna bet?
Oh wait a minute: asked and answered.
Never mind, just keep blathering your nonsensical claims, as we can always use a good joke.
When I say I WILL NOT BET it is pertaining to personal bets with members.
Please do not miss-inform yourself.
Quote: OnceDearEasiest $100,000 you could ever make, but you prefer to make it from the casino.
What if the members here put up a million bucks against your $100,000? I'm sure we could arrange that.
Please stop it with the talking craps.
I was told by the wizard to expect stuff like this.
Talk is cheap OnceDear. you keep talking those high numbers. I'm ok with grinding money from the casino's.
I have no intention of taking any kind of money from members on here.
Maybe one day at a meetup, but not till then.
I'm sure we could arrange to do this modest wager at a real casino under real casino conditions. Heck, I reckon we might be able to persuade a casino to take this proposition bet against you - Casino versus you.Quote: LaymedownI said I would bet all my chips yes, bet at the casino.
When I say I WILL NOT BET it is pertaining to personal bets with members.
Please do not miss-inform yourself.
Let's see 2000 rolls at say 1 roll every two minutes. That's 6 and 2/3 hours. Add in a couple of days for traveling time and you have said you could take how many million real dollars off us. (US or Canadian or even Euro or UK pounds)
Money talks: Bullsh1t walks.
Quote: LaymedownAcesAndEights do you not think I can roll a 9 in seven rolls after I just told everyone I just rolled 6 nines back to back on Sunday using my dice set?
I'm not sure how you gamble, but in my neck of the woods, it's ok to bet on trends and trending shooters.
Humble yourself. On Sunday I rolled 11 nines out of 40 rolls. That's one in four using my favorite dice set.
I play craps for fun, with money I can afford to lose, with the knowledge that it is a loser's game over the long run. Fun fact is I'm actually up lifetime at craps, but I haven't played that much in the long term. I stick strictly to line bets (pass/come or don't pass/don't come) and odds, and have probably put more action on the dark side than the light side over my years.
I also play games where you can have a mathematically proven advantage over the casino (with the right skill or conditions), like blackjack and three card poker.
Let me try to give you a clue as to why you are catching so much flack on this board: NO ONE believes you can roll more 9s than would be mathematically expected, or fewer 7s. The reason people are trying to bet with you is not only to win your money, but also to try to disprove dice influence. It is very, VERY difficult for the mathematically minded around here to see you talking about dice influence and winning money from the casinos without any kind of proof. So that's why people want to bet with you...they want to disprove your claims.
I know you SAY that you don't believe in dice influence. But that is exactly what you are describing. You have been using words like rhythm, feel, etc., but at the end of the day you are claiming that you can roll more 9s than would be expected from random dice. If you don't want to call that dice influence, I don't know what to tell you. Everyone here is going to call it dice influence because that is the commonly-understood term for players who believe they can change the probability at craps.
Dice influence has a long and sordid history on this board. Many wagers have been proposed and few (if any) have actually come to fruition. I believe a couple dice throwing challenges actually did happen on Ahigh's personal craps table.
If you actually care to put your money where your mouth is, I think some members will be willing to give you fair odds or better based on your claims. That is, if you can do what you say you can do, you would be expected to win more often than lose. But since you don't make personal bets, it's off the table I guess. I'm sure other members would love to meet up with you at a casino to see you throws in action.
Quote: LaymedownQuote: OnceDearEasiest $100,000 you could ever make, but you prefer to make it from the casino.
What if the members here put up a million bucks against your $100,000? I'm sure we could arrange that.
Please stop it with the talking craps.
I was told by the wizard to expect stuff like this.
Talk is cheap OnceDear. you keep talking those high numbers. I'm ok with grinding money from the casino's.
I have no intention of taking any kind of money from members on here.
Maybe one day at a meetup, but not till then.
OK. How about just an even money bet of one nice steak dinner and a bottle of wine, on this, at a face to face meetup? Name your venue. Travel and incidental expenses to be initially covered by you, but reimbursed to you in full plus the cost of those dinner for both of us when you win.
And why not???Quote: Laymedown
When I say I WILL NOT BET it is pertaining to personal bets with members.
Quote: OnceDearI'm sure we could arrange to do this modest wager at a real casino under real casino conditions. Heck, I reckon we might be able to persuade a casino to take this proposition bet against you - Casino versus you.
Let's see 2000 rolls at say 1 roll every two minutes. That's 6 and 2/3 hours. Add in a couple of days for traveling time and you have said you could take how many million real dollars off us. (US or Canadian or even Euro or UK pounds)
Money talks: Bullsh1t walks.
why are you still talking? I do this at every visit to the casino, who cares if it's 2000 rolls. I do it now with 50 rolls or less. I don't need your money.
Quote: AxelWolfAnd why not???
I'm new here. I don't know anyone. Please accept the facts.
Quote: AcesAndEightsIt is very, VERY difficult for the mathematically minded around here to see you talking about dice influence and winning money from the casinos without any kind of proof. So that's why people want to bet with you...they want to disprove your claims.
Proof is at the tables. Visual proof. Not what is said in books. The game can be beaten regardless of the math.
Little skill and simple betting will beat this game betting on TRENDS (Not titled as DI)
I don't just speak for myself. There are a few shooters out there (Regulars at the table) that I also bet on their trends.
They too are not DI's, they are players that roll to avoid sevens.
Again i'm new here, and i'm sure there will be many meetups at the casino to give you a better understanding.
I can not say I win all the time, but I can tel you this from personal experience, when I bet money on those shooting random dice... I walk home a loser will no money. I blame them... sorry let me rephrase that, I BLAME THEM ALL BECAUSE THEY SUCK AND SHOULD NEVER SET FOOT IN ANY CASINO.
Quote: LaymedownProof is at the tables. Visual proof. Not what is said in books. The game can be beaten regardless of the math.
THEN WHY ARE YOU HERE???? JUST GO MAKE THAT F'ING MONEY!!!!!!!
Quote: IbeatyouracesTHEN WHY ARE YOU HERE???? JUST GO MAKE THAT F'ING MONEY!!!!!!!
i know! I know. I'm leaving at dinner time. Wife is sleeping right now.
Well if s that's the reason, GREAT! You won't be new here for long, either you will be banned or you won't. If you happen to last, you won't be new here anymore. I'm sure this will take some time to set up anyways. Looks like once you are no longer new we have a bet to look forward to.Quote: LaymedownI'm new here. I don't know anyone. Please accept the facts.
I'm too old to care about that stuff. I'm more practical, I like to go to the tables and physically shoot the dice and make real bets. I'm never good at pen and paper calculations.
I do apologize if anyone is getting riled up over this. Sometimes I can not tell if members are serious or joking.
Quote: AxelWolLooks like once you are no longer new we have a bet to look forward to.
I wouldn't bet on it.
But when you fail to realize the conditions and do not emphasize what is involved and what negatives can come out of it. I strongly suggest keeping your mouth shut.
Quote: LaymedownShow me a good bet that you can do and i'll consider in the meantime. ...
But when you fail to realize the conditions and do not emphasize what is involved and what negatives can come out of it. I strongly suggest keeping your mouth shut.
What does that even mean?
Quote: OnceDearWhat if the members here put up a million bucks against your $100,000? I'm sure we could arrange that.
Please stop it with the talking craps.
That's a million bucks says you cannot do what you said you would bet all your money that you can do? Is that a good bet to consider?
I strongly suggest you follow your own advice.
I'm heading out to the casino in a few minutes, does anyone want to make any wagers?
I will keep you posted on how many nines get rolled BY ME tonight.
Here is some food for thought for those visiting the Brantford Casino tonight.
Place the 9 and HOP THE NINES!!!!
Quote: LaymedownWhat if said I can roll 300 nines within 2000 rolls, how much would you wager? Keep in mind, that's ONE in SEVEN rolls.
I am very confident that I can do it, and would most likely put every penny I have at risk.
SHOOTER'S using RANDOM ROLLS = SEVEN OUT
DICE SETTERS most likely will seven out but not as much as random shooters.
Dice setters will win 75% of any challenge against those just throwing dice randomly. SO THINK LONG AND HARD BEFORE ENTERING YOURSELF INTO A CHALLENGE.
First, let me thank you for at least having interest in doing a challenge. Not since there was a 500-roll challenge several years ago at BJ21, has a dice setter been willing to put his alleged skill to the test, at least that I'm aware of.
I'm definitely want to do a challenge on you or any dice setter you appoint. It will prove nothing to bet on what a random thrower can or can't do.
Second, assuming random rolls, the probability of 300 or more nines in 2000 rolls is 1 in 14,172,593. I know you don't think your rolls are random, which is the essence of our bet.
Third, I think that 2000 rolls is a ridiculously large number. I pretty much have the condition that every roll be done in a casino and called a fair roll by the dealers. I also would like at least two monitors on every roll. So, I'd like to suggest we lower this to 500 rolls. Assuming the same ratio, I'd like to suggest the goal being to throw 75 nines or more in 500 rolls.
We are having a site get-together in May 19, so perhaps around then we could get volunteers to help monitor.
Finally, we need to address the issue of trust. I would suggest we escrow funds with a mutually trusted source, and hopefully we can find one. Frank Scoblete would be fine with me.
With that, I hit the ball back to you. If you continue to be serious, I think I'll make a separate thread for this.
Quote: WizardFirst, let me thank you for at least having interest in doing a challenge. Not since there was a 500-roll challenge several years ago at BJ21, has a dice setter been willing to put his alleged skill to the test, at least that I'm aware of.
I'm definitely want to do a challenge on you or any dice setter you appoint. It will prove nothing to bet on what a random thrower can or can't do.
Second, assuming random rolls, the probability of 300 or more nines in 2000 rolls is 1 in 14,172,593. I know you don't think your rolls are random, which is the essence of our bet.
Third, I think that 2000 rolls is a ridiculously large number. I pretty much have the condition that every roll be done in a casino and called a fair roll by the dealers. I also would like at least two monitors on every roll. So, I'd like to suggest we lower this to 500 rolls. Assuming the same ratio, I'd like to suggest the goal being to throw 75 nines or more in 500 rolls.
We are having a site get-together in May 19, so perhaps around then we could get volunteers to help monitor.
Finally, we need to address the issue of trust. I would suggest we escrow funds with a mutually trusted source, and hopefully we can find one. Frank Scoblete would be fine with me.
With that, I hit the ball back to you. If you continue to be serious, I think I'll make a separate thread for this.
It's actually ONE in SEVEN that I can show a 9, I will do it again tonight just for my own proof.
I know you have a few members in Niagara falls area, but if they want to give me a specific time, I can do it there or if they want to come up to brantford I can also do it there.
A member on here under the name ONTARIODEALER says he is a craps dealer at FALLSVIEW casino, maybe he can arrange a time he is working and I can drive down there and do the challenge in front of him just to prove I can do it.
Everytime I get the dice, I will let him know how many 9's I roll. Basically all I have to do is roll a 9 within 7 rolls.
As far as the MONEY. We can re do the challenge at an actual annual WOV meetup.
About the 75 nines or more in 500 rolls, because there will be so much money involved from the members I'd be willing to make that 100 nines or more in 500 rolls. This to me will put a bit of a gamble on my integrity and also will give the members a better bang for their buck.
There are no health risks involved in this challenge so It's safe to set this up.
Quote: WizardSecond, assuming random rolls, the probability of 300 or more nines in 2000 rolls is 1 in 14,172,593. I know you don't think your rolls are random, which is the essence of our bet.
I had it as 1 in 20251595. I get your probability as being for 299 or more nines.
But what's 600,000 between friends? I concede I may have been a bit wrong.
For 75 or more out of 500, I estimate odds of 1 in 312 or thereabouts. So I'd put up a wager at 2 to 1 with some confidence.
Quote: LaymedownIt's actually ONE in SEVEN that I can show a 9, I will do it again tonight just for my own proof.
I know you have a few members in Niagara falls area, but if they want to give me a specific time, I can do it there or if they want to come up to brantford I can also do it there.
A member on here under the name ONTARIODEALER says he is a craps dealer at FALLSVIEW casino, maybe he can arrange a time he is working and I can drive down there and do the challenge in front of him just to prove I can do it.
Everytime I get the dice, I will let him know how many 9's I roll. Basically all I have to do is roll a 9 within 7 rolls.
I know of a long-time member, who I consider a friend, who lives in the area. Perhaps we could do a mini-challenge there, just to get the ball rolling and establish some trust. I'd suggest the bet being that you can or can't achieve 20 or more nines in 140 rolls. The probability of a random shooter achieving this is 14.5%.
LMD,Quote: LaymedownIt's actually ONE in SEVEN that I can show a 9, I will do it again tonight just for my own proof....
Everytime I get the dice, I will let him know how many 9's I roll. Basically all I have to do is roll a 9 within 7 rolls.
Just for your benefit, if you say that you can roll one 9 in 7 rolls, that is an entirely different and easier proposition.
ANYONE can expect to do that with 56% probability of success. It means nothing of any significance. I'll wager you can do one 9 in 7 rolls with ease.
It's just maths matey. Not gut or instinct: Maths!
Even when Wizard and I squabble over 600,000 or so we are both still closer than your estimate by 10 million or so.
I don't think any of us saw that coming.....
I'm on my way, to do this challenge. No money, just to prove I can do it. If there is any witnesses available, I may construct a video of some sort.
I'm out. Have a great evening everyone.
Quote: LaymedownI'd suggest the bet being that you can or can't achieve 20 or more nines in 140 rolls.
I'm on my way, to do this challenge. No money, just to prove I can do it. If there is any witnesses available, I may construct a video of some sort.
I'm out. Have a great evening everyone.
Let me know how it goes.
At this point, can I get a show of hands of members in the Niagara Falls area who may be interested in serving as monitors for a more serious challenge?
Have a great evening as well.
Are you saying this casino pays 3-2 on a place [9] bet, or are you talking the free odds?Quote: Laymedown...100% of the bets on my nine will show profit especially when the payout is 1.5 to my wager.
Axle, thanks for your generous offer, I won't try to abuse that. Even if shooter takes the bet, I didn't think he would want to book all that are interested.
Quote: WizardFirst, let me thank you for at least having interest in doing a challenge. Not since there was a 500-roll challenge several years ago at BJ21, has a dice setter been willing to put his alleged skill to the test, at least that I'm aware of.
I'm definitely want to do a challenge on you or any dice setter you appoint. It will prove nothing to bet on what a random thrower can or can't do.
Second, assuming random rolls, the probability of 300 or more nines in 2000 rolls is 1 in 14,172,593. I know you don't think your rolls are random, which is the essence of our bet.
Third, I think that 2000 rolls is a ridiculously large number. I pretty much have the condition that every roll be done in a casino and called a fair roll by the dealers. I also would like at least two monitors on every roll. So, I'd like to suggest we lower this to 500 rolls. Assuming the same ratio, I'd like to suggest the goal being to throw 75 nines or more in 500 rolls.
We are having a site get-together in May 19, so perhaps around then we could get volunteers to help monitor.
Finally, we need to address the issue of trust. I would suggest we escrow funds with a mutually trusted source, and hopefully we can find one. Frank Scoblete would be fine with me.
With that, I hit the ball back to you. If you continue to be serious, I think I'll make a separate thread for this.
Both dice have to hit the back wall every time, otherwise its a re-roll, correct?
