100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 640
  • Posts: 4303
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
April 19th, 2012 at 5:12:25 PM permalink
i've tried this. i've lost more $ because of a Passline '7' than hitting one of my #s.

What's the theory on having the #'s 'working' during a Passline roll?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
jml24
jml24
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 295
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
April 19th, 2012 at 5:22:39 PM permalink
I think the theory is that your come odds bet has zero house edge. As such it reduces the overall house edge on your aggregate bets. This does not change just because it is a come out roll so why would you turn the odds off?

That said, the reason the bet is normally off is because people like to limit the amount of money they have bet "against the table." If you have more fun with the odds bet off then maybe it is better for you even at the cost of a slightly increased edge for the house.
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 640
  • Posts: 4303
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
April 19th, 2012 at 6:57:18 PM permalink
ahh.. 'free odds'

so if it's place/Buy bets, then leave it off during the Passline roll?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
bushman
bushman
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 183
Joined: Feb 17, 2010
April 19th, 2012 at 8:13:52 PM permalink
I say no to having the Place/Buy bets (I would guess only if the Buy bets are free) off. I had asked this question back in this post.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 19th, 2012 at 10:33:55 PM permalink
What is worst is for it to happen just after I tell the dealer my bets are always working.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9577
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
April 20th, 2012 at 12:19:57 AM permalink
IMO it's not worth the hassle to keep your free odds on at a busy table. The crew keeps rotating and you keep getting somebody new to tell over all the noise. The EV of the decision is zero anyway.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
FourFiveFace
FourFiveFace
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 84
Joined: Feb 26, 2012
April 20th, 2012 at 2:10:22 AM permalink
You also get your odds returned to you if the seven comes on the come out roll. Then again, I guess you could turn your odds off anytime during the point stage if you requested that (but I've never seen anyone do that). I hear people say that it's just a time to take a break from the action, and also to reduce exposure a bit like someone said earlier in this thread.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
April 20th, 2012 at 10:03:55 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

i've tried this. i've lost more $ because of a Passline '7' than hitting one of my #s.

What's the theory on having the #'s 'working' during a Passline roll?



I started working my come odds last year. The reason I did this was I got tired of getting a couple of Come bets out on the table, and then after a point, invariably the shooter would roll one of my Come bet numbers. I'd get the $10 back from the Come bet, but I just lost the chance the get paid on the odds. So, I had beat the odds of the shooter rolling the same number twice before a 7, but I didn't get paid for it. And it seemed like it was happening a lot to me. So I started working my odds, and when the number rolled, then I got paid on those odds.
Worked quite well for a while. Now I am on the other side of the luck. Lately, nothing but 7s have been coming, costing me me my odds. As a concession, I have stopped working my odds, if I have more than 3 Come bets up. In reviewing my trip reports, I have easily lost over a G in odds money the last few trips, and I have not won anywhere near that much. However, since I am a staunch supporter of the gambler's fallacy, I know that it just means I am due to start winning again on the Come out rolls. :-)
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
slyther
slyther
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 691
Joined: Feb 1, 2010
April 20th, 2012 at 10:12:58 AM permalink
For awhile I would work my place bets on the comeout. Then I stopped because regardless of actual result it' felt' like i was losing more than hitting. Decreased my fun.
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
  • Threads: 115
  • Posts: 5692
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
April 20th, 2012 at 10:16:07 AM permalink
Know what you mean.
Plus...I want a winner-7 to have NO downside to it.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Ahigh
Ahigh
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 5197
Joined: May 19, 2010
April 20th, 2012 at 10:32:34 AM permalink
Sometimes I not only keep my bets off, but I could up my total working bets and divide by 15 and multiply by 3 and bet a 3-way red.

IE: if I have 30 in travelled come bets, I'll take a 6 dollar three way red.

The edge that the house matters in the long run.

In the short run, the difference between a 1.41% edge and a 0.374% edge when you have $150 on the table is $2.11 vs $0.56 .. so for the win/lose event it's a buck fifty or 1%. But when a seven wipes out $145, that's about a hundred a fifty times worse in the short run. So you'd have to keep your odds working for the next 150 come out rolls even when the math works out to make back the money you lost on that one roll.

Edges and lowering them is important. To a point. Then luck is going to be the predominate force that you observe.

Variance is another thing. The variance betting the passline and come on every roll is actually pretty low. Especially if you only take a few numbers. Seven winners on the comeout tends to lower your variance as money at risk goes back to the rail.

But if you are lucky, the money is better on the table.

I know all of these facts are obvious to the experienced, but in short, the edge is only one thing to consider.

I am constantly told by dealers about my lack of odds bets. Yet I don't constantly remind them of their lack of funds in their bank accounts from being a dealer.

IE: I am the one with the money, and I know the game plenty well to know when I should take an odds bet.

One final note on taking odds: martingale is a betting strategy that does in fact work. It simply requires an infinite bankroll. When you increase your bets following losses .. or even in the face of the lack of wins (loading up the numbers with odds bets) .. you are subject to necessary bankrolls.

And when it comes to bankroll battles, most people don't hit the table limits even at low-roller casinos. That means the house will martingale you any day of the week you want to because they have the bigger bankroll.

This matters more often than the edge, and it's a reason why the house just doesn't care that the dealers are ENCOURAGING you to take the max odds. Most players do not understand the necessary bankroll required to get past the down parts of the up and down cycle in high variance play such as max odds .. REGARDLESS of the house edge being low, the variance means you will go up and you will go down and you have to not frown, and sometimes go digging for big backups in the wallet to keep from getting knocked out of the game.
aahigh.com
teddys
teddys
  • Threads: 150
  • Posts: 5527
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
April 20th, 2012 at 11:35:02 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

In the short run, the difference between a 1.41% edge and a 0.374% edge when you have $150 on the table is $2.11 vs $0.56 .. so for the win/lose event it's a buck fifty or 1%. But when a seven wipes out $145, that's about a hundred a fifty times worse in the short run. So you'd have to keep your odds working for the next 150 come out rolls even when the math works out to make back the money you lost on that one roll.

Yes, but what if the come out roll is a box number AND THEN immediately a seven? Same result: lose $150.

The debate is somewhat moot. It's personal preference. The only difference turning bets off on the comeout is that you get a short "break" from the variance. Sometimes that can be refreshing.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
  • Jump to: