Can you confirm my cost...

Hey, LOVE your website, it has been enormously valuable. Quick question, if I play $10 Pass Line bet and $10 come bets (every time) and max odds (3x4x5x) what is my hourly cost to play. (I have my odds working on come out rolls)

Also what if I limit to 3 come bets?

Thanks so much

This post has links to threads that will answer you questions.
Craps Math 3 4 5 X Odds

You can easily do the math.
If you cant do the math, then you will have to wait for the answers
Enjoy!

Assuming 100 rolls an hour, your expected loss is $14.10.

With three come bets, slightly less. Depending on the number of rolls per hour, and bets resolved, maybe $12.50.

Hey Teddys, thanks for your reply - at the risk of contradicting an answer to a question you tried to answer for me...

Unless I'm mistaken the 1.41% per roll loss at 100 rolls an hour with a $10 bet adds up to $14.10 an hour, BUT if I take all of the come bets too, then this $14.10 becomes something between $14.10 and 6x that number i.e. $84.60 depending on how many points I achieve from the come bets on average before a seven comes along. Does anyone know how many come bet points would on average be achieved?

Thanks again for the answers

Quote: onmybreak

Hey Teddys, thanks for your reply - at the risk of contradicting an answer to a question you tried to answer for me...

Unless I'm mistaken the 1.41% per roll loss at 100 rolls an hour with a $10 bet adds up to $14.10 an hour, BUT if I take all of the come bets too, then this $14.10 becomes something between $14.10 and 6x that number i.e. $84.60 depending on how many points I achieve from the come bets on average before a seven comes along. Does anyone know how many come bet points would on average be achieved?

Thanks again for the answers

Teddys right.
100 rolls is about 30 resolved pass line bets.
(100 / (557/165))

"So, basically, if you make a come bet on every non-comeout roll, your average total of flat bets will be close to 3 1/2 times your basic amount. So, if you are a $10 passline bettor, and you make 60 bets, your total bet handle would be close to $2060, yielding an expected loss of about $29. "
From Alan's post here:
How Many Come Bets is Too Many?

I think the $14.10 per hour is still accurate. Assuming 100 rolls per hour, and each $10 bet (regardless if it's a line or come bet) is subject to a house edge of 1.41%, then the expected hourly loss is $14.10. This is assuming a come bet or line bet on each roll.

Quote: onmybreak

Unless I'm mistaken the 1.41% per roll loss at 100 rolls an hour...
Does anyone know how many come bet points would on average be achieved?
Thanks again for the answers

2/3 of the time you would make a come bet and 2/3 of the time you would get a come point# from a bet on the come line.
General formula when making come bets every roll:
N (number of rolls) * 4/9 = average number of come points

More math when not making a come bet every roll - having a max come points at one time.
Now the number and percentage of the number of come points per roll and per come points is a bit more challenging when not making a come bet every roll.
I have some sim results for this as soon as I can find them.

added:
From sims that averaged 105 rolls, had to wait until the come bets were resolved. (I rounded up)
having max 1 come point avg: 16 per 100 to 105 rolls
having max 2 come point avg: 29
having max 3 come point avg: 38, stdev:4.1, min:23, max:60
having max 4 come point avg: 44
having max 5 come point avg: 47
having max 6 come point avg: 48, stdev:6.3, min:26, max:85

Thanks for the comments guys, really appreciated... what I am not understanding is this....

If I make a $10 bet on the pass line every time I believe I lose $14.10 an hour, right?

If I ALSO bet each come bet I don't believe my loss is still $14.10 an hour, I think it's $14.10 an hour for my pass line bet AND each come bet - as you point out from the other thread, that seems to be on average slightly less than 2.5 come bets (plus one pass line bet) making my loss approx. 3.5 times $14.10 = $49 an hour.

Sorry to come back on this but appreciate the help!

Quote: onmybreak

Thanks for the comments guys, really appreciated... what I am not understanding is this....

If I make a $10 bet on the pass line every time I believe I lose $14.10 an hour, right?

No.
In 100 rolls there will be on average 30 pass line decisions made. (100 / (557/165)) is the formula

So your ev for just the pass line bet in 100 rolls would be (-7/495) * $10 * 30 = -$4.24
That makes 3.5 * -$4.24 a better answer.
But in the same 100 rolls you can make on average 67 come bets.
(-7/495) * $10 * 67 = -$9.47

But why split them up?
Every roll has a pass or come bet made.
So, (-7/495) * $10 * 100 = -$14.14

Thanks so much - I'lll take this as a definitive answer as you obviously know what you're talking about!

I play $10 pass line, max odds all come bets max odds - its clearly a game requiring $10,000 of bank roll - but the true average cost after 30% comps and $20 of 'free' wine an hour is less than zero it seems!


Appreciate the help!

Quote: onmybreak

If I make a $10 bet on the pass line every time I believe I lose $14.10 an hour, right?

If I ALSO bet each come bet I don't believe my loss is still $14.10 an hour, I think it's $14.10 an hour for my pass line bet AND each come bet - as you point out from the other thread, that seems to be on average slightly less than 2.5 come bets (plus one pass line bet) making my loss approx. 3.5 times $14.10 = $49 an hour.!

No. If you are making a come or pass bet at every opportunity, you are having a bet resolved on every single roll. So the calculation of you expected loss is simple:( No. of rolls/hour x $10) x 0.0141.

If you are only making pass bets (no comes), you will lose about a third less.

Also remember there is a smaller chance that one player will see the ev playing one time.
Greater chance of seeing the ev when many players play one time.

Variance becomes more important in seeing the range of possible outcomes and in calculating the Bankroll needed when dealing with Risk of Ruin.
Your average single bet would be, with 345X odds,
$37.78
with a SD of $49.16
Good Luck to you.

Quote: onmybreak

Thanks so much - I'lll take this as a definitive answer as you obviously know what you're talking about!

I play $10 pass line, max odds all come bets max odds - its clearly a game requiring $10,000 of bank roll - but the true average cost after 30% comps and $20 of 'free' wine an hour is less than zero it seems!


Appreciate the help!

The true expected cost is less than zero. The casino is hoping you will get bored, or you will be anxious to try some proposition bets. If you are betting every single roll, and taking maximum odds the variance is huge.

But try the El Cortez or one of the smaller places. They will pay more attention if you cash in $10K, and are likely to give you a room and dinner after an hour of play. You can play $5 or sometimes $3 at 10X odds. That way if things are going well, you can jump to $10 or $25 and play max odds.

I am learning this is what makes craps such a great game if you have discipline and can stand +/- $10,000 (let me check that when you say huge, you don't mean significantly more than that!).

I have a place in LV, so not a lot of value in a room for me.

I did get bored once, and got into the 'All' bet that requires all points to be rolled, (6% house edge, 178-1 pay out), mistake #2, I decided it would be a good idea to double up my bet as it didn't seem to be coming up... when I got to $25 bet I realized I had not thought carefully enough about the possibility of it not rolling it in 4 hours, or 8 or 20 given that $25 each 7 (which resets the bet) is around $500 an hour... anyway, I managed to roll it before I was *too* deep in, but lesson learned.

Quote: onmybreak

I am learning this is what makes craps such a great game if you have discipline and can stand +/- $10,000 (let me check that when you say huge, you don't mean significantly more than that!).

And, It is not all always about Bankroll.
Your bet size, type of bets and the Bankroll can all work together.

But a big stake does not always mean profits from play.
From my sims, one has about an 88% chance of winning $1000 before losing all $10,000 playing your full method of play.
(come bets every roll with 345x odds)
If you bump up to 10X odds you can get the winning goal % to about 91%. Not much of a difference.
(the big difference being 521 rolls vs. 107 for median session length)

For me, that is a very high RoR for a $10k stake, but for some, excitement of winning big and entertainment carries more weight.

Hope to cross paths with you in Vegas.

Quote: 7craps

Hope to cross paths with you in Vegas.

I concur...always nice to find someone who loves gambling but understands the mathematical underpinnings.