Impossible 843 of 3200 wins
October 31st, 2011 at 4:35:37 PM
permalink
Online casinos are in buisiness to make money. The only thing they can't control is the outcome of sports games (unless they have the refs and players on payroll, which isn't out of the question). The softwares uses are extremely sofisticated and ensure that the house will win. Random my ass! I dont trust them for a second. They don't have any ramifications for cheating and who would audit them anyway. Save your money and dont play casino games online. It is a no win situation. They will suck you in an let you win a few at first..... then the assault ensues.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
October 31st, 2011 at 4:44:45 PM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistI'm not sure it's exploitable, but based on my knowledge of online casino software developers, I doubt they spent too much time on their craps implementation. Craps is a remarkably low-revenue game online. As a result, while I can't rule it out, I would doubt that the engineers spent much effort on their risk-mitigation software. The test I proposed above should yield a relatively low-cost answer.
I agree, it might not be exploitable. But, these same people thought that at 25% win rate on a pass/don't pass would go un-noticed. I'd be willing to bet they didn't think too far into this.
I heart Crystal Math.
October 31st, 2011 at 4:55:29 PM
permalink
Quote: CrystalMathI agree, it might not be exploitable. But, these same people thought that at 25% win rate on a pass/don't pass would go un-noticed. I'd be willing to bet they didn't think too far into this.
I just don't see how what I described is "too far" ... I think, it is the first thing that comes to mind. Way simpler than trying to devise some kind of a "universally rigged" distribution, that would increase the house edge only in some cases, but in others.
Besides, it seems to go opposite to the OP's experience, who was losing both pass, and don't pass line bets. So, it seems that the software is indeed aware of where the money is.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
October 31st, 2011 at 5:03:57 PM
permalink
Keeping in mind of course that a gaming site that has rigged its games is even going to pay anyone who finds a way to win...
Happiness is underrated
October 31st, 2011 at 5:15:02 PM
permalink
Quote: TheNightflyKeeping in mind of course that a gaming site that has rigged its games is even going to pay anyone who finds a way to win...
Bingo. If I could trust them, I'd deposit $500 today. So, I'm really hoping the OP tries some different suggestions. I'm happy to watch videos and record data to help him out.
I heart Crystal Math.
October 31st, 2011 at 6:14:10 PM
permalink
Without knowledge of the site, I am almost willing to bet that a person cannot bet both sides of the dice. You won't be able to play doey-don't. And if you bet pass, you then can't lay a point, and vice-versa. That way, the software doesn't have to be too particular sophisticated, simply adjust the possibility of certain rolls based on whether the person is playing on the do or don't side.
October 31st, 2011 at 6:59:11 PM
permalink
Here are the results of 328 pass line bets on a BLR-Tech software casino, according to the type of win/loss.
The lower right cell shows a chi-squared statistic of 89.61, with 13 degrees of freedom. The probability of results this skewed or more are 1 in 6,036,452,793,441.
If that isn't convincing enough for you, let's look at just the wins and losses.
Total wins = 81
Total losses = 247
Total bets made = 328
That is a win rate of 24.7%. How unlucky is that?
The standard deviation of 328 throws is 18.11. Over 328 rolls the expected loss is 4.64 units. My actual loss was 166 units. That is 161.36 below expectations. The number of standard deviations south of the expected loss of 4.64 units is 161.36/18.11 = 8.91. The probability of results that unlucky or worse in a fair game are 1 in 3,940,183,270,432,190,000.
The prosecution rests. I plan to publish my results on my Odds site in the next day or two. First, if anyone can find a flaw in my case, have at it.
| Event | Probability | Actual Results | Expected Results | Chi sqd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Come out roll win | 22.22% | 33 | 72.89 | 21.83 |
| Come out roll loss | 11.11% | 66 | 36.44 | 23.97 |
| Point 4 win | 2.78% | 4 | 9.11 | 2.87 |
| Point 5 win | 4.44% | 10 | 14.58 | 1.44 |
| Point 6 win | 6.31% | 7 | 20.71 | 9.07 |
| Point 8 win | 6.31% | 11 | 20.71 | 4.55 |
| Point 9 win | 4.44% | 10 | 14.58 | 1.44 |
| Point 10 win | 2.78% | 6 | 9.11 | 1.06 |
| Point 4 loss | 5.56% | 26 | 18.22 | 3.32 |
| Point 5 loss | 6.67% | 25 | 21.87 | 0.45 |
| Point 6 loss | 7.58% | 39 | 24.85 | 8.06 |
| Point 8 loss | 7.58% | 38 | 24.85 | 6.96 |
| Point 9 loss | 6.67% | 31 | 21.87 | 3.81 |
| Point 10 loss | 5.56% | 22 | 18.22 | 0.78 |
| Total | 100.00% | 328 | 328.00 | 89.61 |
The lower right cell shows a chi-squared statistic of 89.61, with 13 degrees of freedom. The probability of results this skewed or more are 1 in 6,036,452,793,441.
If that isn't convincing enough for you, let's look at just the wins and losses.
Total wins = 81
Total losses = 247
Total bets made = 328
That is a win rate of 24.7%. How unlucky is that?
The standard deviation of 328 throws is 18.11. Over 328 rolls the expected loss is 4.64 units. My actual loss was 166 units. That is 161.36 below expectations. The number of standard deviations south of the expected loss of 4.64 units is 161.36/18.11 = 8.91. The probability of results that unlucky or worse in a fair game are 1 in 3,940,183,270,432,190,000.
The prosecution rests. I plan to publish my results on my Odds site in the next day or two. First, if anyone can find a flaw in my case, have at it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:34:55 PM
permalink
I have absolutely no doubt in your findings, and sorry that you lost $166.
The five casinos that support BLR are:
5Dimes Casino and Sportsbook, Heritage Sports, Legend Sports, WorldWide Wagering, and Loose Lines Casino and Sportsbook.
CasinoMeister has picked up this thread.
The five casinos that support BLR are:
5Dimes Casino and Sportsbook, Heritage Sports, Legend Sports, WorldWide Wagering, and Loose Lines Casino and Sportsbook.
CasinoMeister has picked up this thread.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
October 31st, 2011 at 7:38:22 PM
permalink
Quote: boymimboI have absolutely no doubt in your findings, and sorry that you lost $166...CasinoMeister has picked up this thread.
I asked the casino to return the money, let's see if they do. I'm glad Bryan has taken notice.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
October 31st, 2011 at 8:46:19 PM
permalink
Wiz, did you make any attempt to bet both sides?
Happiness is underrated
