clempops4
clempops4
Joined: Oct 23, 2011
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October 28th, 2011 at 8:50:18 AM permalink
I was playing craps on a sports betting site that apparaently contracts out the casino and takes a percentage of the win. I was winning for a while averaging slightly over 50% but all of a suddden I begin losing most of my bets. I emailed my agent that I won only 27 of 114 bets and then followed with 126 wins of 450 bets. He told me I was just running bad. I knew I was being cheated so I decided to run a number so far out that it would be impossible to deny. I made 3200 decisions that I won only 843 and lost 2347. I documented these rolls in blocks of 100 each, the best block I won 37 bets and the worst I won 22 bets which happened 4 times out of the 32 blocks. The response I got was that they checked their software and did not find any abnrmalities. I need suggestions on what I should do next.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:06:13 AM permalink
Quote: clempops4

I was playing craps on a sports betting site that apparaently contracts out the casino and takes a percentage of the win. I was winning for a while averaging slightly over 50% but all of a suddden I begin losing most of my bets. I emailed my agent that I won only 27 of 114 bets and then followed with 126 wins of 450 bets. He told me I was just running bad. I knew I was being cheated so I decided to run a number so far out that it would be impossible to deny. I made 3200 decisions that I won only 843 and lost 2347. I documented these rolls in blocks of 100 each, the best block I won 37 bets and the worst I won 22 bets which happened 4 times out of the 32 blocks. The response I got was that they checked their software and did not find any abnrmalities. I need suggestions on what I should do next.



You won 25% of your decisions? In 3200 trials, that's not even improbable let alone impossible.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
iwannaiguana
iwannaiguana
Joined: Jun 4, 2011
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:27:25 AM permalink
depends on what bets you're making
dm
dm
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:36:06 AM permalink
Quote: clempops4

I was playing craps on a sports betting site that apparaently contracts out the casino and takes a percentage of the win. I was winning for a while averaging slightly over 50% but all of a suddden I begin losing most of my bets. I emailed my agent that I won only 27 of 114 bets and then followed with 126 wins of 450 bets. He told me I was just running bad. I knew I was being cheated so I decided to run a number so far out that it would be impossible to deny. I made 3200 decisions that I won only 843 and lost 2347. I documented these rolls in blocks of 100 each, the best block I won 37 bets and the worst I won 22 bets which happened 4 times out of the 32 blocks. The response I got was that they checked their software and did not find any abnrmalities. I need suggestions on what I should do next.



Go to a REAL, live casino.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:49:55 AM permalink
Quote: clempops4

I was playing craps on a sports betting site that apparaently contracts out the casino and takes a percentage of the win. I was winning for a while averaging slightly over 50% but all of a suddden I begin losing most of my bets. I emailed my agent that I won only 27 of 114 bets and then followed with 126 wins of 450 bets. He told me I was just running bad. I knew I was being cheated so I decided to run a number so far out that it would be impossible to deny. I made 3200 decisions that I won only 843 and lost 2347. I documented these rolls in blocks of 100 each, the best block I won 37 bets and the worst I won 22 bets which happened 4 times out of the 32 blocks. The response I got was that they checked their software and did not find any abnrmalities. I need suggestions on what I should do next.

When you say you won 843 and lost 2347 decisions, won and lost what? What is the decision you are winning and losing? Are you making pass line bets? Come bets? Proposition bets? A mixture? You are giving no useful information ...

--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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October 28th, 2011 at 10:00:39 AM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

When you say you won 843 and lost 2347 decisions, won and lost what? What is the decision you are winning and losing? Are you making pass line bets? Come bets? Proposition bets? A mixture? You are giving no useful information ...



Couldn't have said it better myself.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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October 28th, 2011 at 10:05:39 AM permalink
Quote:

Impossible 843 of 3200 wins


That's far from impossible...
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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October 28th, 2011 at 1:04:47 PM permalink
If it is pass line bets, I would say it's damn near impossible.
I heart Crystal Math.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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October 28th, 2011 at 1:11:35 PM permalink
I agree. That is way off the charts for the pass/DP lines. Now, if there are other bets mixed in there, the results are meaningless.

But if that is pass line resolutions, the OP has a reason to be concerned.

The #s break excel's binomdist() function. Even 85 successes (or worse) in 320 trials is in the range of e-17. I estimate the actual results are on the order of e-150.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 28th, 2011 at 1:11:49 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

If it is pass line bets, I would say it's damn near impossible.



Agreed, of course.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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