CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:08:21 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

How can a 5, 4 10 and 6 be losers if you are playing either pass or don't?I don't get it.



If he's playing the pass line, then this is caused by sevening out, right?

He never hit a 2, 3, or 12. The odds of this are 1:130,392. Not astronomical, but not likely.

When he got 6's, he won 4/18 times. This has a 3.8% chance.

When he got 9's, he won 2/13 times. This has a 5.8% chance.

We definitely need to see more data.
I heart Crystal Math.
Doc
Doc
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:22:43 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

If he's playing the pass line, then this is caused by sevening out, right?

He never hit a 2, 3, or 12. The odds of this are 1:130,392. Not astronomical, but not likely.

When he got 6's, he won 4/18 times. This has a 3.8% chance.

When he got 9's, he won 2/13 times. This has a 5.8% chance.

We definitely need to see more data.


Near the top of the previous page, he noted that most bets were on the don't pass. Losing on a point would mean making it, rather than a seven out. I think this probably means that the low frequencies of wins on point numbers have even lower probabilities of occurring than you calculated, though I haven't performed the calculations and may have misinterpreted your numbers.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:27:52 PM permalink
At this point I don't trust his data -- I think something is missing here ... I need a roll by roll to understand what he is really reporting ... Occam's razor does not favor this poster ...
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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October 28th, 2011 at 9:39:18 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Near the top of the previous page, he noted that most bets were on the don't pass. Losing on a point would mean making it, rather than a seven out. I think this probably means that the low frequencies of wins on point numbers have even lower probabilities of occurring than you calculated, though I haven't performed the calculations and may have misinterpreted your numbers.



Oops, you're right. 7 and 11 were losses - these were don't pass bets and the odds are worse than what I calculated.
I heart Crystal Math.
Lucyjr
Lucyjr
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October 28th, 2011 at 10:17:03 PM permalink
Quote: clempops4

I did record and video 3200 rolls. Here is the first 100 rolls reading across. I had one losing streak of 13 in a row in this 100 rolls. x = loser c = winner. It is 58,000,000 to 1 against losing 78 or more and it happened 4 times in my 32 blocks of 100 rolls. I rolled a 7 or 11 26 times and did not roll a 2 or 3 once.

14-May W L W L
5x 4x 10x 6x 9c 6x 8c 4c 6c 11x 4 6
11x 7x 8x 9x 8c 5x 6x 11x 11x 4c 2 8
9x 5x 5c 10x 4x 8c 10c 7x 6x 6x 3 7
6c 8x 7x 4x 6x 7x 5c 5x 8c 11x 3 7
4x 10c 8x 6c 6c 7x 7x 6x 9c 11x 4 6
7x 7x 11x 10x 4x 7x 9x 8c 9x 9x 1 9
6x 5x 5c 10x 10x 11x 9x 9x 4c 10x 2 8
10x 5c 9x 7x 7x 7x 9x 6x 11x 8x 1 9
6x 7x 6x 10c 8x 6x 7x 10x 7x 5x 1 9
8c 6x 9x 7x 5x 11x 7x 6x 5x 9x 1 9 22 78



I think what he means to say instead of rolls is resolved bets. In the first line across, the point was established as "5" the x denotes that the bet was lost after an unspecified series of rolls. Next point established was a "4" which also lost. The row finishes with a winning point "6" roll followed immediately by an "11", a loss. The 4 6 at the end means he only won 4 of the 10 points while losing the other 6.
dwheatley
dwheatley
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October 29th, 2011 at 6:53:26 AM permalink
This interpretation of the table looks right. So, 22 wins out of 100 resolved DP bets is pretty fishy. The odds of this result or worse are about 1 in 13 million.

This is only one block of 100 trials. If the others are similarly bad, this is a no contest incident of cheating.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
clempops4
clempops4
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October 29th, 2011 at 9:42:54 AM permalink
I keep coming up with 1 in 57,306,590 which happened 4 times out of the 32 blocks of 100. The best record was 37 wins and 63 losses. All but six sessions were bet on the dont pass and the bottom six were bet on the pass line.

W L
22 78
29 71
23 77
25 75
34 66
30 70
25 75
22 78
24 76
27 73
31 69
23 77
25 75
24 76
22 78
23 77
30 70
31 69
27 73
37 63
28 72
29 71
26 74
24 76
27 73
23 77
30 70
25 75
22 78
29 71
27 73
29 71
clempops4
clempops4
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October 29th, 2011 at 9:50:18 AM permalink
I put 4 videos on youtube. I believe the first video is this one. There is some lagging but if you follow closely you will see each result.

14-May W L W L
5x 4x 10x 6x 9c 6x 8c 4c 6c 11x 4 6
11x 7x 8x 9x 8c 5x 6x 11x 11x 4c 2 8
9x 5x 5c 10x 4x 8c 10c 7x 6x 6x 3 7
6c 8x 7x 4x 6x 7x 5c 5x 8c 11x 3 7
4x 10c 8x 6c 6c 7x 7x 6x 9c 11x 4 6
7x 7x 11x 10x 4x 7x 9x 8c 9x 9x 1 9
6x 5x 5c 10x 10x 11x 9x 9x 4c 10x 2 8
10x 5c 9x 7x 7x 7x 9x 6x 11x 8x 1 9
6x 7x 6x 10c 8x 6x 7x 10x 7x 5x 1 9
8c 6x 9x 7x 5x 11x 7x 6x 5x 9x 1 9 22 78


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpRDZWF44Rs&feature=feedu
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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October 29th, 2011 at 9:51:10 AM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

So, what to do next? Name & Shame. Tell us, tell casinomeister, tell everybody! Maybe the bad publicity will help them change their attitude. It has worked before.



I think your case could be cleaned up a bit. Strike that, a LOT. Perhaps a breakdown of how often you won each pass and don't pass bet. A breakdown by the COR would be even better.

I'm not saying you were not cheated but if you're going to make the accusation the evidence should be presented in as organized a fashion as possible. I'm available to analyze any results but you have to explain them better.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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October 29th, 2011 at 11:41:15 AM permalink
OK, I watched the entire video and recorded every roll of the dice ... then I did some chi-squared testing on the "come out" roll and the rolls after the come out roll ... based on this analysis, both the come out roll and subsequent rolls are at the edge of being statistically normal, but not over the edge.

I'll leave the data here so someone else can do additional statistical tests. Something seems very funny, I agree. But ...

I would be very helpful if you could organize your data in the same way ... and make as much of it available as you can ...

Here are my summary results:



Overall
Roll Number EXP Chi
2 11 9.78 0.15
3 10 19.56 4.67
4 19 29.33 3.64
5 56 39.11 7.29
6 55 48.89 0.76
7 52 58.67 0.76
8 48 48.89 0.02
9 47 39.11 1.59
10 26 29.33 0.38
11 16 19.56 0.65
12 12 9.78 0.51
Total 352 20.41
0.0256

Come out roll
Roll Number EXP Chi
2 0 2.78 2.78
3 0 5.56 5.56
4 8 8.33 0.01
5 22 11.11 10.67
6 14 13.89 0.00
7 20 16.67 0.67
8 10 13.89 1.09
9 13 11.11 0.32
10 8 8.33 0.01
11 3 5.56 1.18
12 2 2.78 0.22
Total 100 22.50
0.0127

Other rolls
Roll Number EXP Chi
2 11 7.00 2.29
3 10 14.00 1.14
4 11 21.00 4.76
5 34 28.00 1.29
6 41 35.00 1.03
7 32 42.00 2.38
8 38 35.00 0.26
9 34 28.00 1.29
10 18 21.00 0.43
11 13 14.00 0.07
12 10 7.00 1.29
Total 252 16.21
0.0937






All data (note -- I may have mixed up 1 or 2 of these, but not enough to change this in any meaningful way).


4 12 11 6 9 8 11 8 7
5 8 6 8 5
7
6 7
5 6 5
7
7
7
7
4 7

5 8 8 10 7
4 8 11 11 7
4 10 7
8 8
10 8 11 7
12 7
7
5 6 11 7
8 6 5 6 8
11

10 7
9 5 5 4 9
7
7
6 10 8 6
5 6 5
5 10 7
5 5
6 12 2 7
5 6 6 12 5

10 10
7
7
7
8 8
9 7
9 9
7
9 7
8 7

5 9 10 6 9 6 4 9 5
8 9 2 8
7
4 8 11 9 5 2 4
6 6
8 6 11 6 3 3 7
8 9 5 8
7
6 8 8 2 8 10 7
6 7

9 3 2 12 10 4 3 8 7
9 9
5 5
7
7
5 5
10 7
6 11 5 2 3 10 5 12 6
9 6 11 10 6 2 6 4 10 5 5 9
8 10 6 5 8

5 11 9 8 6 11 8 8 9 8 5
10 7
7
9 6 8 5 9
4 12 4
6 7
5 6 5
8 6 7
9 6 9
5 2 6 12 12 9 4 12 6 10 5

6 5 6
6 8 6
6 9 6
11
4 9 6 9 7
7
5 9 12 5
4 2 8 6 2 5 7
5 6 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 5
7

5 5
9 10 8 6 10 4 9
5 6 7
9 3 9
7
5 5
5 11 8 9 10 8 9 3 5
8 6 6 4 4 7
11
5 8 9 5

10 4 3 9 5 5 6 3 7
9 5 9
5 7
6 9 9 6
9 8 9
6 8 6
10 5 3 7
6 9 10 2 8 6
10 7
12 7


--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"

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