Best way to play
August 25th, 2011 at 7:09:14 AM
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I have been a dice setter for over 40 years and after reading a number of craps articles online I took the time to evaluate my rolls. I sweet talked my wife into recording my last 360 rolls and would like your help for suggestions on the best bets to make to maximize my profits. I always set V3 and here is the breakout per 36 rolls:
Horn 5.5
4&10 5.5
5&9 8
6&8 11.5
7 5.5
I made a very good profit by placing the 6&8 every roll with a minimum Pas with 2xodds on the 4,5,9,10.
Please help. I live in the Houston area and play in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Major Tom
tomlindy@sbcglobal.net
Horn 5.5
4&10 5.5
5&9 8
6&8 11.5
7 5.5
I made a very good profit by placing the 6&8 every roll with a minimum Pas with 2xodds on the 4,5,9,10.
Please help. I live in the Houston area and play in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Major Tom
tomlindy@sbcglobal.net
August 25th, 2011 at 8:37:39 AM
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Quote: majortomI have been a dice setter for over 40 years and after reading a number of craps articles online I took the time to evaluate my rolls. I sweet talked my wife into recording my last 360 rolls and would like your help for suggestions on the best bets to make to maximize my profits. I always set V3 and here is the breakout per 36 rolls:
Horn 5.5
4&10 5.5
5&9 8
6&8 11.5
7 5.5
I made a very good profit by placing the 6&8 every roll with a minimum Pas with 2xodds on the 4,5,9,10.
Please help. I live in the Houston area and play in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Major Tom
tomlindy@sbcglobal.net
Based on your data of n=360. A chi-square test of goodness of fit calculates a p-value of .478 which is interpreted as: there is no significant statistical difference from your dice setting from the expected results if you did not set the dice.
Therefore, I see no betting pattern that can be used.
August 25th, 2011 at 8:49:27 AM
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Download Bonetracker. It's a very nice excel spreadsheet that you'll probably find helpful for selecting bets and dice sets. It also has some statistical functions that can be quite enlightening.
Old enough to repaint. Young enough to sell.
August 25th, 2011 at 9:12:46 AM
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Quote: majortomI have been a dice setter for over 40 years
7 5.5
Tom- There are those of us (me) that believe that using real casino rules and real casino dice and real casino tables make 'dice setting' a fruitless activity. You seem to think you can decrease your 7's to 5.5 out of 36 instead of 6 out of 36. So you think you can get to 55 out of 360, 110 out of 720 instead of the expected 120. You define a sum of money that you would be willing to wager- You get to roll 1080 times- if 165 or fewer are 7's, you win, if 166 or greater are 7's, I win. Dice must hit back wall. I will be in Vegas in October, and if we can arrange it, can be in Mississippi over Thanksgiving. If you could really lower your 7's that much you would not dice set on the come out roll, then make a mint betting the odds after a point is established.
August 25th, 2011 at 9:21:38 AM
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I've been making a profit every year for the last 40 years. So i feel i can consistently roll the # I posted. I looks like my best bets are odds on 6 & 8 after the point. Is it worth playing the other #s.
Thanks,
Major Tom
Thanks,
Major Tom
August 25th, 2011 at 9:22:36 AM
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Thanks! I'll take a look at iy.
Major Tom
Major Tom
August 25th, 2011 at 9:24:48 AM
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Thanks! I've made a profit every year for 40 years setting dice. I never did put much faith in statistics.
August 25th, 2011 at 9:52:21 AM
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You call yourself a dice setter, proclaim that you've made a profit every year for 40 years setting dice... and now, after 40 years you've decided to ask an internet forum how best to make your craps wagers? Denmark - smelly - loon - mrjjj - 98steps - been there, done that.Quote: majortomThanks! I've made a profit every year for 40 years setting dice. I never did put much faith in statistics.
Happiness is underrated
August 25th, 2011 at 9:53:59 AM
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Quote: majortomThanks! I've made a profit every year for 40 years setting dice. I never did put much faith in statistics.
You must understand why you are being met with skepticism... If you have been winning consistently for so long and just NOW are starting to think about how to maximize your 'advantage', well, that seems quite odd... Since you've made the claim... where were you playing dice when the only legal place was in Nevada? Do you have a job, or just make your living playing dice? I can assure you if I could limit my 7's to 5.5 out of 36 (a statistic, by the way), I would never work a day in my life. That HUGE edge over the house would be easily exploitable for vast sums of money. But to answer your question, I think I would find a house with at least 5x odds, and bet max odds whenever a point was established.
August 25th, 2011 at 10:05:31 AM
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Part time in Vegas and New jersey through the 70s and 80s. I've now retired and play 2/3 times a week in Louisiana and Mississippi.
I was just wondering if the sevens advantage was better then the sixes. I've tried both over the years but seem to make more when I'm heavy on the sixes. Thanks for your honest feedback.
I was just wondering if the sevens advantage was better then the sixes. I've tried both over the years but seem to make more when I'm heavy on the sixes. Thanks for your honest feedback.
August 25th, 2011 at 10:07:03 AM
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It certainly is. I'm always looking for better ways.
August 25th, 2011 at 10:08:49 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOYou must understand why you are being met with skepticism... If you have been winning consistently for so long and just NOW are starting to think about how to maximize your 'advantage', well, that seems quite odd... Since you've made the claim... where were you playing dice when the only legal place was in Nevada? Do you have a job, or just make your living playing dice? I can assure you if I could limit my 7's to 5.5 out of 36 (a statistic, by the way), I would never work a day in my life. That HUGE edge over the house would be easily exploitable for vast sums of money. But to answer your question, I think I would find a house with at least 5x odds, and bet max odds whenever a point was established.
Here's how I'd bet under that scenario:
1) Bet pass and come with odds, all the time. Put 2/3 of each win back on the table somewhere, in the form of increased line bets or greater odds.
2) Put up inside place bets and come down with odds when those hit
3) Put up $5 hard 6 and 8, and press those to the next highest chip color each time they hit ($25, $100, $500, $1000).
You could easily have a +EV of several hundred dollars per hour if your dice control is as effective as your numbers indicate.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 25th, 2011 at 10:45:30 AM
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Thanks! I've not been pushing that hard. I'll try that next time. I've been flat betting the 6 & 8 with place bets and pass with odds. I didn't think I was maximizing my long runs. I am very conservative by nature.
August 25th, 2011 at 11:53:20 AM
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If you're right about your numbers, you have a *huge* edge. Don't waste time being conservative. Based on your own numbers, you have >10% edge on the place 6 & 8 bets. I can't tell what your edge is on the 6 & 8 hardways (you didn't give the breakdown of hard/soft), but I'm guessing it's at least that much of a player edge as well. You can start small and press aggressively with the house's money -- this minimizes your losses but still increases your average wager (and therefore your average win).
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 25th, 2011 at 12:33:55 PM
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My hard 6&8 is 2.5 per 36 rolls, about 13% and I have my place 6&8 at about 22% 4&10 are even with odds and 5&9 about 9% with odds. I just haven't been as aggressive with pressing the hardways. Yesterday I had 2 different rolls where I hit 3 hard 6s before craping out. I made some money but could have hit for $10,20,40 or $5,25,100 not 10,10,10.
Since my odds are double on place 6/8 vs 6/8 hard that's the way I've been betting.
Thanks for your input.
Since my odds are double on place 6/8 vs 6/8 hard that's the way I've been betting.
Thanks for your input.
August 25th, 2011 at 2:37:18 PM
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In that case, I was right - you have a 11% edge on the hard 6/8. If you're already putting $10 on the bets to start with, I'd say do $10, $50, $250, $1000 (unless $500 is the table max). Your average bet will be just about $18 (each) and you'll be making $125/hour while you're shooting just from the hard 6 & 8 bets. If I were you, I'd be at the tables right now.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 25th, 2011 at 2:58:49 PM
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Thanks! I'm going in the morning. What happens when I roll a soft six at $250? Just start the sequence over. I won't have it covered on my place bets.
August 25th, 2011 at 3:53:40 PM
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Yes, start over at $10. If you roll a soft 6 at $250, you've already taken at least that much off the table: $50 hard 6 on the last roll pays $450; press $200 to $250, pocket the other $250. Don't worry about the place bets -- those are separate. You can press those too if you want -- aim for between 1/2 and 2/3 of your winnings each time. The only thing I'd avoid is the 4 and 10.
Good luck.
Good luck.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 25th, 2011 at 5:13:39 PM
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Thanks, I'll let you know how it goes. This was exactly what I was looking for. Thanks again.
August 26th, 2011 at 9:31:36 AM
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That's what I've been doing as of late (sorta)
Just pressing back my wins, and ONNNLLLY playing the line with max (3/4/5) odds
Go from:
$5 -> $10 -> $20 -> $40 -> $80 -> $160 -> $320 -> $640 -> $1280
So far I've only gotten up to the $160 level (probably 3 times), but then again, I just started this last month.
I've locked up a couple ~$1000 wins, and my losses aren't usually more than $250 for a weekend.
Just pressing back my wins, and ONNNLLLY playing the line with max (3/4/5) odds
Go from:
$5 -> $10 -> $20 -> $40 -> $80 -> $160 -> $320 -> $640 -> $1280
So far I've only gotten up to the $160 level (probably 3 times), but then again, I just started this last month.
I've locked up a couple ~$1000 wins, and my losses aren't usually more than $250 for a weekend.
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
August 26th, 2011 at 11:04:15 AM
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Just got back from the casino. Most fun I've ever had. Hit 3 hard sixes in 7 rolls 10 50 200 then lost 500 to a soft six. Instead of hitting 10 10 10 and a few hundred dollar session, I made a multiple thousand dollar profit. Can't wait to hit the 500 bet. Soon I hope.
How do you play the come out roll with large bets up should I have the hardways and place bets working or not? Please let me know.
Thanks again for your help.
How do you play the come out roll with large bets up should I have the hardways and place bets working or not? Please let me know.
Thanks again for your help.
August 26th, 2011 at 11:08:58 AM
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I hit for multiple thousands using mathexterme's progression on the hardways. I'm going to start pushing my place bets +1/2 after every hit and see how that goes. Doubling the 6/8 place is too aggressive for me.
Thanks for your input. I had a blast winning a $200 9to 1 shot and having a working $500 9 to 1 shot.
Good luck!
Thanks for your input. I had a blast winning a $200 9to 1 shot and having a working $500 9 to 1 shot.
Good luck!
August 26th, 2011 at 11:39:27 AM
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Quote: majortomJust got back from the casino. Most fun I've ever had. Hit 3 hard sixes in 7 rolls 10 50 200 then lost 500 to a soft six. Instead of hitting 10 10 10 and a few hundred dollar session, I made a multiple thousand dollar profit. Can't wait to hit the 500 bet. Soon I hope.
How do you play the come out roll with large bets up should I have the hardways and place bets working or not? Please let me know.
Thanks again for your help.
Awesome! I hope you keep it up. I accept thanks in the form of nice bottles of Scotch. :)
To your question: if you're not changing your set at all, the dice don't know it's the come-out roll. Keep your bets working, including the hardways. Many casinos work hardways on the come-out anyway unless called off.
If you're throwing differently on the come-out vs. other rolls, I'd need to know how you're doing that before commenting further. But if I were you, I wouldn't change anything -- I'd just keep the bets working.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 26th, 2011 at 12:07:24 PM
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I will start keeping them working. I still set V3 on the comeout. and have been missing many winners.
Next time I see you I'l buy the scotch.
Thanks again.
Next time I see you I'l buy the scotch.
Thanks again.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:13:31 AM
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Pass odds with place bets: Here is a betting scheme that has good results in 4 day sessions played, all wins in the $150 to $300 range.
Start the new shooter with $5 Pass then $10 odds and $12 6 OR 8. So 2 bets to start the new shooter. WAIT for a hit on either of these two bets before any furthur bets.
IF get a hit, then start $10,12 place betting each AFTER each box number is rolled until all boxes are covered. Also continue with pass-odds for the remainder of the hand. Using a $600 session bankroll. Most in the negative to date has been about $400 before recovering into the positive..
Start the new shooter with $5 Pass then $10 odds and $12 6 OR 8. So 2 bets to start the new shooter. WAIT for a hit on either of these two bets before any furthur bets.
IF get a hit, then start $10,12 place betting each AFTER each box number is rolled until all boxes are covered. Also continue with pass-odds for the remainder of the hand. Using a $600 session bankroll. Most in the negative to date has been about $400 before recovering into the positive..
August 29th, 2011 at 9:21:26 AM
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Quote: MathExtremistMany casinos work hardways on the come-out anyway unless called off.
I disagree. They're off on the comeout in every place I've played. General rule of thumb for carryover bets is that if a 7 will hurt your bet, that bet is off on the comeout by default.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:03:15 AM
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The Horseshoe in Shreveport and L'auberge in Lake Charles have the hardways working on all comeout rolls. All the other Louisiana casinos they're off.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:05:04 AM
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Thanks! I'll take a look at that for playing the other shooters.
August 30th, 2011 at 4:20:25 AM
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Ok so this is not going to be an anti dice setting rant BUT......I really dont get it.....I think most of you know I think dice setting is complete BS BUT.....carps is entertainment and if you get more entertainment setting your dice a certain way...then have at it unless you slow down the game by doing it......So I guess here is the question.....
When I argue with people about dice setting being a scam....they explain it works but not all the time becasue it takes "skill" just like a pitcher cant throw a curve for a strike every time.... you cant get the dice on the same axis all the time ect ect......and the dice setter will say.." it only changes the odds maybe 1 or 2% and put the shooter at a slight advantage......
So if it only changes the house advantage 1 or 2% into the players favor...why are you guys betting hardways?......you would have to change the house edge by 10 or 11% to put the odds in the shooters favor.......
Are any of you "dice setters" saying by setting dice you can beat the the 9% house edge on the hard 6 and 8 by "dice setting"?
When I argue with people about dice setting being a scam....they explain it works but not all the time becasue it takes "skill" just like a pitcher cant throw a curve for a strike every time.... you cant get the dice on the same axis all the time ect ect......and the dice setter will say.." it only changes the odds maybe 1 or 2% and put the shooter at a slight advantage......
So if it only changes the house advantage 1 or 2% into the players favor...why are you guys betting hardways?......you would have to change the house edge by 10 or 11% to put the odds in the shooters favor.......
Are any of you "dice setters" saying by setting dice you can beat the the 9% house edge on the hard 6 and 8 by "dice setting"?
August 31st, 2011 at 4:03:00 PM
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I've had numerous big wins playing the hard ways with a big 1,5 25,100, 500 progression suggested by mathextreme in the last few days but I'm not sure that I could overcome the house edge long term. I play the hard 6/8 in conjunction with placing them and I've had 5 of 7 winning session since last week. My long runs are longer with dice setting. More 6/8 and less 7s. I'm not sure I can consistently beat the hard 6/8. But it sure is fun having $100 and 500 bets working on them.
