Craps - Come odds working on come out roll?
I've recently started playing craps. I bet pass line with full odds, and once the point is set, I bet the come with full odds when that new point is set & continue doing this until I crap out. (The tax professor who taught me craps calls this "turbo craps")
The question I have is this: Ordinarily, after an original pass line point is made, the odds on my come bets are not "working" until a new point is established. However, I can tell the dealer that I want my odds "working."
My assumption is that since the casino default is that the odds are not working, it's to my advantage to have them working.
Is that correct? Does it matter how many come bets I have up at the time?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Personally, since dealers are constantly changing, I dislike having to tell each and every one of them each time I want them working. Perhaps if there isn't a lot of noise etc at the table it might be more practical.
Quote: LawDawgGreat site & especially love the Wizard of Odds site - I use the basics to impress my friends with my knowledge of probability & refer them to it when they ask me questions too hard for me to answer.
I've recently started playing craps. I bet pass line with full odds, and once the point is set, I bet the come with full odds when that new point is set & continue doing this until I crap out.
I assume you mean "seven out". "Crap out" means to lose on the comeout roll by rolling 2, 3 or 12. "Seven out" is when you establish a point on the comeout roll and then roll a seven before your point. When you seven out, you lose any come bets that have gone to a point number, but win a bet still in the come area. "Seven out, line away, pay the don't and the last come."
Quote: LawDawgThe question I have is this: Ordinarily, after an original pass line point is made, the odds on my come bets are not "working" until a new point is established. However, I can tell the dealer that I want my odds "working."
My assumption is that since the casino default is that the odds are not working, it's to my advantage to have them working.
Is that correct? Does it matter how many come bets I have up at the time?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Since the odds have a zero expectation, there is no mathematical reason to have them not working - or working, for that matter. OTOH, you might reason that, if the come odds are a good bet any time, they are a good bet on the pass comeout, as well. OTOOH, if you are "rooting" for the seven on the pass comeout, you are also rooting against your come odds of they are working. OTOOOH, if you believe in DI, the shooter is probably using an "all-sevens" set on the pass comeout.
I avoid come bets for two reasons: 1) I'd rather put my money on pass odds, which have zero expectation than on come, with negative expectation AND 2) I don't like the "mixed feelings" of the pass comeout roll if I have come bets outstanding.
Reason 1 does not apply to you if you are already taking max odds on the pass. Once you reach max odds, the only way to win more is to increase your expected loss.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabinI assume you mean "seven out". "Crap out" means to lose on the comeout roll by rolling 2, 3 or 12. "Seven out" is when you establish a point on the comeout roll and then roll a seven before your point. When you seven out, you lose any come bets that have gone to a point number, but win a bet still in the come area. "Seven out, line away, pay the don't and the last come."
Yes, thanks for that - still new enough to not have all of the lingo down.
And thanks for your explanation - makes perfect sense to me.
I was thinking that if I had come bets up on 2 numbers (say 5 & 6) there are more chances at winning that bet than losing on one bet, but the same would not be true if I had only one bet up (anything without a bet being neutral).
And I often feel the same way you describe in #2 (the times I feel kinda smart when the come out roll pays out on my come odds bet are often outweighed by the times I feel stupid when all my come odds bets are lost with a come out 7.)
The trouble with your aggressive style of play is that you can get every point number covered and suddenly hear Seven Out ... happened to me and I still blame the dealer for it because she "caused" it by saying 'you are all over the place'.
Quote: FleaStiffPart of the reason that your odds would be automatically 'off' on a comeout roll is that this saves the dealer having to take them down and put them back up again. I keep mine working.
I'm not sure what that means? When I'm working, the dealer puts a little plastic chip on one of my bets that says "on."
I agree - it sucks to lose when I have every number covered - especially if they haven't paid anything out before it happens. But I like the faster pace of the action.
Thanks for the comments.
Quote: LawDawg
I was thinking that if I had come bets up on 2 numbers (say 5 & 6) there are more chances at winning that bet than losing on one bet, but the same would not be true if I had only one bet up (anything without a bet being neutral).
There are more ways to win ONE of those bets than to lose BOTH.
More come bet terminology:
If you have a come 6, say and another come bet (in the come area) and the six is rolled, the dealer will just pay you and say, "You're off and on"; or, if you have an odds bets, (s)he'll pay you the flat and the odds payoff and say "You're off and on with odds". This is on the assumption that you're going to make another come bet and avoids moving cheques around pointlessly. If you don't want to make another come bet, just pick up your checque(s) from the come area, before the dice are out.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: LawDawgI'm not sure what that means? When I'm working, the dealer puts a little plastic chip on one of my bets that says "on."Quote: FleaStiffPart of the reason that your odds would be automatically 'off' on a comeout roll is that this saves the dealer having to take them down and put them back up again. I keep mine working.
Actually, that's why the puck says "On" and "Off", and why there are those little chips to indicate the opposite.
The last trip I only had come bets up 3x, and I lost 2 of them to 7 winners, and the other one was my point, so I got paid my odds. That was the first time I had been on the losing end though. All of the other sessions, I had gotten paid my odds more often than I lost the odds, so working the odds on the come out roll has been a good thing for me, so far.
I just started playing craps, my first time actually on my last Vegas trip. I play just as you do, betting on the passline and then every come bet before each roll. If I just make a passline bet and that's it I find it pretty boring just standing around waiting. The thing is that the way you and I play is fun but our bankrolls can go up and down pretty quickly.Quote: LawDawgI've recently started playing craps. I bet pass line with full odds, and once the point is set, I bet the come with full odds when that new point is set & continue doing this until I crap out. (The tax professor who taught me craps calls this "turbo craps")
You are correct. This is what The Wizard has written on this: "Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."Quote: LawDawgMy assumption is that since the casino default is that the odds are not working, it's to my advantage to have them working.
Is that correct? Does it matter how many come bets I have up at the time?
And here is the link to it:
WizardofOdds.com/Craps
Quote: HotBlonde"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."
IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.
The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabinQuote: HotBlonde"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."
IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.
The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.
You're somewhat right, but I think you're being misleading. There are two questions. (1) what is the house edge and how do I lower it? (2) How much do I want to risk? They are separate questions. Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here. I know that and know I will have my odds working, so if I am concerned about how much I will be exposed to, I can put less on the pass and come bets, less on odds and therefore less at risk. I do not look to reduce risk by not placing fair value bets (or working the odds on a comeout roll).
Just to be clear, the odds bets are like flipping coins - that is, it is a fair value bet. It is not that the odds bet is favorable to the bettor. It is that if I'm going to gamble, I might as well bet as much as possible at fair value (or better if that was possible).
Same with a fair bet. Leaving odds on only reduces the house edge as a factor of total bet. It does not reduce the actual house edge as a dollar value.
Odds bets are different from flipping a coin, as the coin itself if biased to losing, while the payouts are increased from 50/50 when winning... so the odds add some variance as well.
Odds bets to me are like getting free variance. And variance is what will make you a winner or loser (or a bigger winner/loser). The base bet is the bet you "pay for" in the house edge. You just got to decide how much variance is enough risk for your bankroll and personal taste. $5 with $10-$15 is enough for me. I keep my come odds off on the come out, but that's just because it's easier and with my flea bets, why waste the dealer's time when he can be dealing with the Green Chippers.
Of course, on a $5 min table, $5 with $25 behind is probably a better bet that $10 with $20 behind, in both terms of EV and variance.
Quote: thecesspitThe Kelly criteria suggests for favourable bets, you don't want to get on as much as possible.. because you still run the risk of losing.
Same with a fair bet. Leaving odds on only reduces the house edge as a factor of total bet. It does not reduce the actual house edge as a dollar value.
Odds bets are different from flipping a coin, as the coin itself if biased to losing, while the payouts are increased from 50/50 when winning... so the odds add some variance as well.
Odds bets to me are like getting free variance. And variance is what will make you a winner or loser (or a bigger winner/loser). The base bet is the bet you "pay for" in the house edge. You just got to decide how much variance is enough risk for your bankroll and personal taste. $5 with $10-$15 is enough for me. I keep my come odds off on the come out, but that's just because it's easier and with my flea bets, why waste the dealer's time when he can be dealing with the Green Chippers.
Of course, on a $5 min table, $5 with $25 behind is probably a better bet that $10 with $20 behind, in both terms of EV and variance.
I agree that the additional action adds variance, but why address that by turning off bets at "fair" odds? I would rather just bet less on the pass line and come bets. My goal is to reduce the house edge. Then I address my appetite for risk by increasing/decreasing my pass/come bets.
Quote: PaiGowFanQuote: goatcabinQuote: HotBlonde"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."
IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.
The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.
You're somewhat right, but I think you're being misleading. There are two questions. (1) what is the house edge and how do I lower it? (2) How much do I want to risk? They are separate questions. Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here.
Technically, yes, you reduce the house edge, but only because of the odd and misleading way that it's traditionally figured on line bets plus odds. The fact is that the expected loss is a function ONLY of the flat part, so that it is affected in now way by the odds bets, whether none, full, working or not working. I think it makes it much clearer to look at the flat bet and odds separately, because when you say you "lower the house edge", it sounds like you are saying you "save money" that way, which you, of course, do not. They don't combine the place bets into one combined house edge, so why do it with flat + odds? I understand that you cannot make the odds bet without having a flat bet, but they still pay off differently and have very distinct ev's.
Quote: PaiGowFanI know that and know I will have my odds working, so if I am concerned about how much I will be exposed to, I can put less on the pass and come bets, less on odds and therefore less at risk. I do not look to reduce risk by not placing fair value bets (or working the odds on a comeout roll).
Yes, when you bet less on the pass/come, you not only reduce risk but you reduce expected loss, as well. I no longer make come bets, specifically because I would rather put more money on odds and keep my expected loss at a minimum, but when I used to make come bets I always had my odds working.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: PaiGowFan
Just to be clear, the odds bets are like flipping coins - that is, it is a fair value bet.
Not exactly, because the odds of winning/losing and the payoffs are not the same. A coin flip has a very low variance (SD=1.00), whereas the odds bets have 1.10 (6/8), 1.22 (5/9) and 1.41 (4/10).
They all have expected values of zero, of course.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: HotBlondeI just started playing craps, my first time actually on my last Vegas trip. I play just as you do, betting on the passline and then every come bet before each roll. If I just make a passline bet and that's it I find it pretty boring just standing around waiting. The thing is that the way you and I play is fun but our bankrolls can go up and down pretty quickly.
You could play pass line/full odds, one come bet/full odds, and a don't come bet/full odds. If you are lucky and they hit in the right order you will win the come bets before you 7 out. It will reduce your variance a little.
Playing turbo craps is still smarter than throwing a lot of money looking for a jackpot at high house edge. It's much easier to do downtown where $3 minimums are common coupled with 10X odds.
Thumbs up. Isn't this really the whole point of gambling?Quote: PaiGowFanMy goal is to reduce the house edge. Then I address my appetite for risk by increasing/decreasing my pass/come bets.
First, wouldn't it be counter-intuitive to play a come bet and don't come bet at the same time? Maybe I'm confused.Quote: pacomartinYou could play pass line/full odds, one come bet/full odds, and a don't come bet/full odds. If you are lucky and they hit in the right order you will win the come bets before you 7 out. It will reduce your variance a little.
I agree, and the lower the original bet, the higher the odds you take the better for sure. That's why I mostly played at Excalibur on the strip last time since they had $5 tables there. I love the MGM Grand and Mirage, Bellagio, and if I was feeling really frisky I would play there at their $15 and up minimum tables, but to me I felt a little uneasy about that since, like I mentioned earlier, I usually bet on the passline and then EVERY come bet I can, with full odds on all my bets. It can be scary on the one hand to have that much money out at once, but feel good at the same time when I see all the come numbers covered and I keep getting paid off of them. Still, a bit too scary for me when I'm playing at the higher minimum tables.Quote: pacomartinPlaying turbo craps is still smarter than throwing a lot of money looking for a jackpot at high house edge. It's much easier to do downtown where $3 minimums are common coupled with 10X odds.
And to be honest with you, I don't think craps is my game. Just not enough thrill for me. I get more excited playing blackjack. But if I'm considering playing craps again maybe I'll check out the downtown area for the lower minimums and higher odds limits. But in regards to the strip, didn't the Wizard list the Casino Royale as having 100x odds? But then again, who wants to play at the Casino Royale? Not that I'm against it, but it just seems too dirty and murky there for me.
Quote: PaiGowFanLeaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here.
Likewise, always placing a field bet when you bet the hardways will lower the house edge.
Quote: kpLikewise, always placing a field bet when you bet the hardways will lower the house edge.
certainly not! but perhaps the variance
Quote: kpLikewise, always placing a field bet when you bet the hardways will lower the house edge.
A good example of what I'm talking about - if you combine a hardway and a field bet, you do lower the combined house edge, since a field bet has a lower edge than a hardway, but you ADD to your expected loss, not subtract from it.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, Ca
Quote: LawDawgGreat site & especially love the Wizard of Odds site - I use the basics to impress my friends with my knowledge of probability & refer them to it when they ask me questions too hard for me to answer.
I've recently started playing craps. I bet pass line with full odds, and once the point is set, I bet the come with full odds when that new point is set & continue doing this until I crap out. (The tax professor who taught me craps calls this "turbo craps")
The question I have is this: Ordinarily, after an original pass line point is made, the odds on my come bets are not "working" until a new point is established. However, I can tell the dealer that I want my odds "working."
My assumption is that since the casino default is that the odds are not working, it's to my advantage to have them working.
Is that correct? Does it matter how many come bets I have up at the time?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Well IMO its just a matter of how large your bankroll is. The house advantage on your come bet once placed on a point or a "put bet" is not going to ever change whether or not your odds are working. Lets assume you have a $5 come bet that moves to the 10 and you place 10X's odds on it ($50) then your pass line point is made. And you are now on a new come out roll. What you need to ask yourself is.......Do I want to risk $5 at a 33.33% house edge or $55 dollars at a 3.03% house edge?
Off topic: I used to pay with a guy at a casino that had 10x odds, and he would play what I like to call "super turbo craps" LOL It was a $1 table. He would place a $1 pass line bet. Once the pass line point was established he would place $10 odds on it. Then he would make a $1 "put bet" with 10X's odd on every other number and a $1 come bet. One night he made 11 passes in a row with 80 plus rolls before "7ing out" and he always had his odds working on the come out. Needless to say the guy had a HUGE night!
Quote: goatcabinA good example of what I'm talking about - if you combine a hardway and a field bet, you do lower the combined house edge, since a field bet has a lower edge than a hardway, but you ADD to your expected loss, not subtract from it.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, Ca
Ah. I stand corrected. At least we agree a player is not accomplishing what he wants.
Quote: pacomartinYou could play pass line/full odds, one come bet/full odds, and a don't come bet/full odds. If you are lucky and they hit in the right order you will win the come bets before you 7 out. It will reduce your variance a little.
I often try this, usually for 2comebets or 3comebets and then switching to the DontCome. It always seems to annoy the dealers for some reason.
I usually have my odds working on ComeOut rolls but often this doesn't work out too well for me.
This is assuming the last point was made.
So, you've got all your odds working and the guy rolls a 7. It sucks to be you!
Remember, the 7 comes up more than any other number.
Quote: BenJamminOdds working on the Come Out you just lose your odds and original bet if the shooter rolls a 7.
This is assuming the last point was made.
So, you've got all your odds working and the guy rolls a 7. It sucks to be you!
Remember, the 7 comes up more than any other number.
This is no different than having your odds working when it's not the pass comeout. If you want to bet odds, why not have them working?
It's the pass comeout, and you have a come bet behind the four, with working odds. The shooter rolls a four. You win your come and and 2-to-1 odds. It's great to be you!
If you think there's any difference between the pass comeout roll and any other roll, you're confused.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabinSince the odds have a zero expectation, there is no mathematical reason to have them not working - or working, for that matter.
According to the Wizard, Come Odds should always be left on, since the Come bet itself cannot be turned off. He elsewhere once gave an example of a Come bet up on 5 with maximum Odds behind it increasing the overall house edge by 0.377% by turning the Odds off through come-out.
Quote: NowTheSerpentAccording to the Wizard, Come Odds should always be left on, since the Come bet itself cannot be turned off. He elsewhere once gave an example of a Come bet up on 5 with maximum Odds behind it increasing the overall house edge by 0.377% by turning the Odds off through come-out.
To perfectly grasp why the Wizard likes free odds at all, you have to understand that he is framing the use of it in the context of the amount of action the player wants. In other words, if you are at a $25 min table and that *is* also the size bet you are comfortable with, IMO Michael would not say to that gambler to use free odds to try to increase how much he will win.
At a $5 min table, it would pain him [and most of us] to see the same player place that same $25 bet on the passline with no free odds.
Quote: kp....[A]lways placing a Field bet when you bet the hardways will lower the house edge.
Hardways 2&2 (or 5&5) with a Triple-12 Field: (-1*8 + 7*1 + 2*1 + 3*1 + 1*14 - 1*20)/(9 + 36) = -4.2553% (v. -6.3830% with a Double-12 Field).
Hardways 3&3 (or 4&4) with a Triple-12 Field: (-1*10 + 9*1 + 2*1 + 3*1 + 1*14 - 1*20)/(11+36) = -4.0816% (v. -6.1224%).
Per-roll for Hardways 2&2/5&5 + T12 Field: (2*1 + 3*1 + 1*14 - 1*20 + 7*1 - 1*8 + 0*27)/(2*36) = -2.7778% (v. -4.1667%).
Per-roll for Hardways 3&3/4&4 + T12 Field: (2*1 + 3*1 + 1*14 - 1*20 + 9*1 - 1*10 + 0*25)/(2*36) = -2.7778% (v. -4.1667%).
Quote: odiousgambitOK, yeah, but what happens to the HE when you hit the field then *take down* the hardway, and give it to me *per roll* like that.
I don't understand what you mean exactly.
Any Hardway bet per roll has an EV = -2.7778% (-1/36), as does a Field bet with a triple-pay 12. So, if you take the Hardway bet down, the EV doesn't change; you just have the Field by itself.
Quote: NowTheSerpentI don't understand what you mean exactly.
I'm poking fun at those who take the calculation of the HE of bet combinations - which seems to me to be heading in the direction of smoke and mirrors - and further mystify it by looking at a 'per roll' change - and further mystify it by looking at 'per roll if part of combination is taken down after other part wins'.
It may be true that I am just showing how dense I am. If so, further examples of bet combination HE isn't going to clear it up for me. A complete need to show how this isn't as muddled thinking as 'betting systems that win' bet combinations seems to exist.
You may have missed some of the threads.
Quote: odiousgambitI'm poking fun at those who take the calculation of the HE of bet combinations - which seems to me to be heading in the direction of smoke and mirrors - and further mystify it by looking at a 'per roll' change - and further mystify it by looking at 'per roll if part of combination is taken down after other part wins'.
You may have missed some of the threads.
I probably have; I've been away for a while, but your point is well taken. I also think that the terms "per bet resolved" and "per decision" don't always make for a clear distinction from "per roll", as one can speak of "per roll losses per bet resolved" and think of multi-roll bets on box numbers or hardways against the seven being resolved "per roll" as push "decisions" whenever the box number (win) or seven (loss) doesn't roll.
When the field pays triple (the ONLY time you should EVER bet the field if you do bet it at all) the edge is 2.78% per roll.
The same as the hardways here in America.
No difference.
I corrected the Wizard about his edge per roll on the hardways in his FAQ. I don't know if he has updated it.
Please don't be confused when it comes to comparisons of one bet to another. IMO, *ALWAYS* use the edge per roll AND DONE
If you were to count the number of threads where people argue about comparing one bet to another bet with a different number of rolls, it's a high number.
For the math inclined on this thread (especially those who are new to the forum) you have to realize that most people reading the craps forums are interested in learning the game, not debating the technical details of terms used to describe the ten billion combinatorial possibilities for bets you can come up with and what the edge per resolved bets are and/or whether or not "pushes" count. To many of these readers, a "push" is what you give when you leave the table.
Quote: AhighIf you want to compare one bet to another bet, the "per roll" is the only way to do it.
Perhaps I take too many cues from the Wizard, but he does evidently think it is valid to look at HE per roll. I can see that it should be for players who constantly pick up their bets and make different bets.
Quote: AhighIf you were to count the number of threads where people argue about comparing one bet to another bet with a different number of rolls, it's a high number.
It can be valid or not, depending on the player; not everybody picks up bets. If you don't pick up bets, the rolls that don't affect your bet are like rolls that never happened.
In the context of bet combinations and HE, it seems to me that smoke and mirrors are around the corner; when bet per roll is thrown in when the OP did not have that, or vice-versa, I really get suspicious.
Quote: AhighMost people reading the craps forums are interested in learning the game, not debating the technical details of terms used to describe the ten billion combinatorial possibilities for bets you can come up with and what the edge per resolved bets are and/or whether or not "pushes" count. To many of these readers, a "push" is what you give when you leave the table.
Most people? The game is the numbers. And I never (and I repeat, never) invoke combinatorics when dealing with craps! Yahtzee, maybe, but never craps! And, of course, eight-card poker.
Quote: odiousgambitnot everybody picks up bets. If you don't pick up bets, the rolls that don't affect your bet are like rolls that never happened.
Right. I think of the Place-8 as an eleven-sided die, with five faces bearing an 8 and six faces bearing a 7. One throw, and done. Same math. I never take bets down per roll. It annoys dealers. But, when you combine multi-roll with one-roll, e.g. on the Iron Cross or Buffalo, the model changes somewhat. You need to think about 36 rolls at a time. For per-roll, box bets have to be "resolved" somehow on every roll, to put them on equal ground with ORBs.
Quote: spadeknightThe reason why its better to leave them working is because a seven can roll on any throw including the come out roll. the seven isnt more probable on the come out roll just because its the come out roll. The seven can roll at any time. If the seven doesnt roll however and you hit a number you get paid the full amount of your odds bet instead of just the flat bets which always work when going through the come. some may say......" you can lose all your bets on one roll if you turn them on". yea but you can lose them all in one roll on the next throw as well. since the odds are free bets with no house edge you will be giving up a bet with no edge in exchange for one with a house edge of 1.41 instead.
There is something mystical/mysterious about the come out. For example, it seems to me that I see more 7s in succession on the come out than any other time. Well, and in many cases the 11, and craps numbers. When I'm only a few $$ above going broke, I'll be damned if I don't see more craps numbers successively than any other time. Probably just a matter of perception. But, there's a lot of things about craps that defy the math.
How does it defy it odd occurrences are a part of the math. Streaks and hot shooters are real, AFTER THE FACT.Quote: Sonny44But, there's a lot of things about craps that defy the math.
Quote: spadeknightI think the reason you see more sevens on the come out than any other time is because once a seven is thrown all bets lose and then you have the come out. you will always see more on the come out because sevens dont "ride along side points". Just today i was playing craps and leaving my bets working on the come out. I hit five of them in 2 hours. more of the time you will actually see a point rolled other than a seven on the come out because there are 12 ways to either roll a seven or craps but there are 24 ways to roll anything else. If you dont like keeping your bets working try lowering the amount on the odds so you dont "feel upset" if a seven wipes them all out. In the long run you will come out winning more odds bets by keeping them working all the time.
30% of all rolls are comeout rolls.
70% of all rolls are non-comeout rolls.
1/6th of all rolls are sevens.
.30 * (1/6) = # of sevens on comeout
.70 * (1/6) = # of sevens on non-comeout
Quote: Ahigh30% of all rolls are comeout rolls.
70% of all rolls are non-comeout rolls.
1/6th of all rolls are sevens.
.30 * (1/6) = # of sevens on comeout
.70 * (1/6) = # of sevens on non-comeout
Hmmm. Where is the adjustment for a new stick man or when the shooter is really feeling it?
Quote: thecesspitLeaving odds on only reduces the house edge as a factor of total bet. It does not reduce the actual house edge as a dollar value. ... Odds bets to me are like getting free variance.
Yes, that concept is often misunderstood. People often advocate "you have to take max odds." But my odds bet does not impact my expected dollar loss at all! I don't care as much about the percent edge as I care about dollar EV. And furthermore, I care about dollar EV per hour, which is a concept I'm surprised doesn't get more discussion in gambling explanations. I'd rather play 20 hands an hour at a 2% disadvantage than 100 at a 1% disadvantage.
If I'm at a $10 table, max odds will have me risking about $40 extra for every established point (assuming 3x4x5x), which is more than I want. If the casinos I visit had a $1 table with 10x odds, I'd play max odds, but they don't.
I don't usually want more variance than I get with my normal strategy of pass line with 1x odds. I'll never go from $200 to $5000 with my low-variance style, but I probably won't bust in five minutes either. If I have the same dollar EV, I'd rather lower my chance of busting out quickly.
Quote: PaiGowFanQuote: goatcabinQuote: HotBlonde"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."
IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.
The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.
You're somewhat right, but I think you're being misleading. There are two questions. (1) what is the house edge and how do I lower it? (2) How much do I want to risk? They are separate questions. Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here. I know that and know I will have my odds working, so if I am concerned about how much I will be exposed to, I can put less on the pass and come bets, less on odds and therefore less at risk. I do not look to reduce risk by not placing fair value bets (or working the odds on a comeout roll).
Just to be clear, the odds bets are like flipping coins - that is, it is a fair value bet. It is not that the odds bet is favorable to the bettor. It is that if I'm going to gamble, I might as well bet as much as possible at fair value (or better if that was possible).
Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here.
And
Do I want to risk $5 at a 33.33% house edge or $55 dollars at a 3.03% house edge?
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
THIS!
Clearly the best reduction of the house advantage on any game in a casino is not to play. But if I'm choosing to play, I'm hoping in the "short run" I might actually win. I seriously doubt I will get to that goal by playing a game where the casino has an 11% advantage versus a game that has a !% advantage. Why we have to twist things and try to make them so difficult is beyond me. Thank you Hot Blonde and Pai Gow Fan.
Want to eat 3 Big Macs and be healthy? Just drink a gallon of water! Water away those calories..
As said by me: To say having odds on a come or line bet decreases the house edge is to say that the odds bet has a house edge. Or in other words, water by itself has no calories, but if you pour it into a coke - now water has calories.
everything else is how you want to look at it. After Steen shocked me with his argument I've decided everyone is going to view it his way and is going to be deaf to all other arguments.
this does not at all result in average bets (and total action) being equal.Quote: odiousgambitthe only thing indisputable is that the guy who puts $50 on the pass line and never adds odds could lower his EV and HE both by putting $10 on the line and $40 on free odds.
the no odds has an average of $50
$10 with $40 looks like $50
looks like $50
buts only 2/3 of the time IS $50
the other 1/3 = $10
1/3*10 + 2/3* 50 = 10/3+100/3 = 110/3 = $36.67
I say $10 with $60 odds has the same average bet as a $50 flat
or even
$30 flat with $30 odds = $50 average bet (even)
yes/no
no/yes
Sally
of course
the expected loss from the average $50 bet is different
with different flat bets - as expected.
Sure, but once you've bet the $50, taking odds doesn't change your expected loss at all, whether you keep them working during comeouts, only when a point is established, or not at all. RS's example of adding water to flour and eggs is on point here. A 150-calorie shortbread cookie is small, and a 150-calorie slice of challah is large, but both have 150 calories. The focus on house edge as a percentage is misplaced in craps when it comes to the odds bets because that house edge percentage is reduced not by decreasing the numerator (the expected loss), but by increasing the denominator (the total wager). It's a qualitatively different issue than, say, doubling down vs. hitting on 11 vs. dealer 6.Quote: odiousgambitthe only thing indisputable is that the guy who puts $50 on the pass line and never adds odds could lower his EV and HE both by putting $10 on the line and $40 on free odds.
