Scotty71
Joined: Mar 5, 2011
• Posts: 289
March 10th, 2011 at 7:27:02 PM permalink
When I am up big I leave my place and buys bets working as well. On a choppy table it can be fun to alternate between the come and DC... I usually dont lay to DC odds though.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because." — E.E. Cummings
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 665
March 10th, 2011 at 9:17:00 PM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."

IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.

The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
PaiGowFan
Joined: Apr 13, 2010
• Posts: 63
April 21st, 2011 at 4:39:16 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Quote: HotBlonde

"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."

IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.

The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.

You're somewhat right, but I think you're being misleading. There are two questions. (1) what is the house edge and how do I lower it? (2) How much do I want to risk? They are separate questions. Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here. I know that and know I will have my odds working, so if I am concerned about how much I will be exposed to, I can put less on the pass and come bets, less on odds and therefore less at risk. I do not look to reduce risk by not placing fair value bets (or working the odds on a comeout roll).

Just to be clear, the odds bets are like flipping coins - that is, it is a fair value bet. It is not that the odds bet is favorable to the bettor. It is that if I'm going to gamble, I might as well bet as much as possible at fair value (or better if that was possible).
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
April 21st, 2011 at 5:07:42 PM permalink
The Kelly criteria suggests for favourable bets, you don't want to get on as much as possible.. because you still run the risk of losing.

Same with a fair bet. Leaving odds on only reduces the house edge as a factor of total bet. It does not reduce the actual house edge as a dollar value.

Odds bets are different from flipping a coin, as the coin itself if biased to losing, while the payouts are increased from 50/50 when winning... so the odds add some variance as well.

Odds bets to me are like getting free variance. And variance is what will make you a winner or loser (or a bigger winner/loser). The base bet is the bet you "pay for" in the house edge. You just got to decide how much variance is enough risk for your bankroll and personal taste. \$5 with \$10-\$15 is enough for me. I keep my come odds off on the come out, but that's just because it's easier and with my flea bets, why waste the dealer's time when he can be dealing with the Green Chippers.

Of course, on a \$5 min table, \$5 with \$25 behind is probably a better bet that \$10 with \$20 behind, in both terms of EV and variance.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
PaiGowFan
Joined: Apr 13, 2010
• Posts: 63
April 21st, 2011 at 5:30:35 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

The Kelly criteria suggests for favourable bets, you don't want to get on as much as possible.. because you still run the risk of losing.

Same with a fair bet. Leaving odds on only reduces the house edge as a factor of total bet. It does not reduce the actual house edge as a dollar value.

Odds bets are different from flipping a coin, as the coin itself if biased to losing, while the payouts are increased from 50/50 when winning... so the odds add some variance as well.

Odds bets to me are like getting free variance. And variance is what will make you a winner or loser (or a bigger winner/loser). The base bet is the bet you "pay for" in the house edge. You just got to decide how much variance is enough risk for your bankroll and personal taste. \$5 with \$10-\$15 is enough for me. I keep my come odds off on the come out, but that's just because it's easier and with my flea bets, why waste the dealer's time when he can be dealing with the Green Chippers.

Of course, on a \$5 min table, \$5 with \$25 behind is probably a better bet that \$10 with \$20 behind, in both terms of EV and variance.

I agree that the additional action adds variance, but why address that by turning off bets at "fair" odds? I would rather just bet less on the pass line and come bets. My goal is to reduce the house edge. Then I address my appetite for risk by increasing/decreasing my pass/come bets.
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 665
April 24th, 2011 at 2:16:07 PM permalink
Quote: PaiGowFan

Quote: goatcabin

Quote: HotBlonde

"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."

IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.

The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.

You're somewhat right, but I think you're being misleading. There are two questions. (1) what is the house edge and how do I lower it? (2) How much do I want to risk? They are separate questions. Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here.

Technically, yes, you reduce the house edge, but only because of the odd and misleading way that it's traditionally figured on line bets plus odds. The fact is that the expected loss is a function ONLY of the flat part, so that it is affected in now way by the odds bets, whether none, full, working or not working. I think it makes it much clearer to look at the flat bet and odds separately, because when you say you "lower the house edge", it sounds like you are saying you "save money" that way, which you, of course, do not. They don't combine the place bets into one combined house edge, so why do it with flat + odds? I understand that you cannot make the odds bet without having a flat bet, but they still pay off differently and have very distinct ev's.

Quote: PaiGowFan

I know that and know I will have my odds working, so if I am concerned about how much I will be exposed to, I can put less on the pass and come bets, less on odds and therefore less at risk. I do not look to reduce risk by not placing fair value bets (or working the odds on a comeout roll).

Yes, when you bet less on the pass/come, you not only reduce risk but you reduce expected loss, as well. I no longer make come bets, specifically because I would rather put more money on odds and keep my expected loss at a minimum, but when I used to make come bets I always had my odds working.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 665
April 24th, 2011 at 2:28:29 PM permalink
Quote: PaiGowFan

Just to be clear, the odds bets are like flipping coins - that is, it is a fair value bet.

Not exactly, because the odds of winning/losing and the payoffs are not the same. A coin flip has a very low variance (SD=1.00), whereas the odds bets have 1.10 (6/8), 1.22 (5/9) and 1.41 (4/10).

They all have expected values of zero, of course.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
• Posts: 7895
April 24th, 2011 at 3:34:51 PM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

I just started playing craps, my first time actually on my last Vegas trip. I play just as you do, betting on the passline and then every come bet before each roll. If I just make a passline bet and that's it I find it pretty boring just standing around waiting. The thing is that the way you and I play is fun but our bankrolls can go up and down pretty quickly.

You could play pass line/full odds, one come bet/full odds, and a don't come bet/full odds. If you are lucky and they hit in the right order you will win the come bets before you 7 out. It will reduce your variance a little.

Playing turbo craps is still smarter than throwing a lot of money looking for a jackpot at high house edge. It's much easier to do downtown where \$3 minimums are common coupled with 10X odds.
HotBlonde
Joined: Feb 8, 2011
• Posts: 1712
April 25th, 2011 at 8:25:54 AM permalink
Quote: PaiGowFan

My goal is to reduce the house edge. Then I address my appetite for risk by increasing/decreasing my pass/come bets.

Thumbs up. Isn't this really the whole point of gambling?

Quote: pacomartin

You could play pass line/full odds, one come bet/full odds, and a don't come bet/full odds. If you are lucky and they hit in the right order you will win the come bets before you 7 out. It will reduce your variance a little.

First, wouldn't it be counter-intuitive to play a come bet and don't come bet at the same time? Maybe I'm confused.

Quote: pacomartin

Playing turbo craps is still smarter than throwing a lot of money looking for a jackpot at high house edge. It's much easier to do downtown where \$3 minimums are common coupled with 10X odds.

I agree, and the lower the original bet, the higher the odds you take the better for sure. That's why I mostly played at Excalibur on the strip last time since they had \$5 tables there. I love the MGM Grand and Mirage, Bellagio, and if I was feeling really frisky I would play there at their \$15 and up minimum tables, but to me I felt a little uneasy about that since, like I mentioned earlier, I usually bet on the passline and then EVERY come bet I can, with full odds on all my bets. It can be scary on the one hand to have that much money out at once, but feel good at the same time when I see all the come numbers covered and I keep getting paid off of them. Still, a bit too scary for me when I'm playing at the higher minimum tables.

And to be honest with you, I don't think craps is my game. Just not enough thrill for me. I get more excited playing blackjack. But if I'm considering playing craps again maybe I'll check out the downtown area for the lower minimums and higher odds limits. But in regards to the strip, didn't the Wizard list the Casino Royale as having 100x odds? But then again, who wants to play at the Casino Royale? Not that I'm against it, but it just seems too dirty and murky there for me.
OFFICIALLY and justifiably reclaimed my title as SuperHotBlonde!
kp
Joined: Feb 28, 2011