Dave's System Wincraps graphs?

So Dave's Method is fairly infamous over at heavy axis forums. Essentially it's a dark strategy that sets a pretty low and obtainable win stop number that a retired guy named Dave would play at the casino 7 days a week. One thing I've never seen posted are any graphs on how well an actual strategy would do over the course of say 2+ years, assuming you stuck to it as well as Dave reportedly did. Has anyone ever posted the numbers on this strat vs other dark strategies and common light side strategies?

just went to that site and got tired real quick looking for such a thread

how about just telling us what his method is?

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this is Dave's system which I copied and pasted from that forum which is linked -
I hope that didn't break any rules -
I started reading it and trying to figure it out and my eyes kinna glazed over and I started getting real sleepy
maybe some others will have better luck figuring out why it might be good -
maybe I'll come back to it after I take a nap



"Although I do frequent this website, this is my first actual post. I'm writing about a system that I learned from a guy who's retired and plays everyday. His name is "Dave" and thus I've named it "Dave's" system.

Here's how it works:

1) Dave buys in for $500 at a ten dollar table every morning (yes seven days a week) at the same casino when they open. "When they open?" It's a riverboat casino.

2) Without qualifying the table or the shooters whatsoever, Dave starts immediately betting the DP for $10 with no hedge at all.

3) Once a point is established, he lays the following odds: 6/8= $60 lay, 5/9= $75 lay, 4/10 = no lay. Yes, that's correct, he never, ever lays the four and ten.

4) After point is established he begins making $10 DC bets. When those travel, he places the odds above depending on what number it is. He never hedges with hardways, yo's, nothing.

5) He keeps on placing DC bets until he's either been hit a total of two times (DP or DC)from the same shooter, at which time he takes all remaining odds down, leaves flats working. Or the shooter sevens out.

6) IF the shooter knocks only one of his bets down and then sevens out, Dave goes right back up on him and starts over as if this is a new shooter.

7) He quits when he can see $200 profit in his rack. I've seen him do it in as little as three minutes and I've watched him for three hours. He, friends and the dealers have all attested that he has made money with this system the last 97 out of 100 or so days. I can honestly say that I have never seen him walk away a loser. However, I know there are times he's still playing long after I've left. In fact, just last week he told me after I left he had played another ten hours before calling it quits!

Other notes:
- If first $500 buy in is lost, he brings out another $500 and will keep doing so up to $3k. After he's in over $1k, he starts laying $180 against the 6/8, $150 against the 5/9 and still nothing ever against the four and ten. OF course, at those levels, his flat bets go up accordingly as this casino offers 10x's odds.

-Dave never shoots the dice himself and he only plays one session per day.

-No, the casino never gives him heat. In fact, they all like him as he's always sure to tip them before he leaves.

I have used this system and went twenty-four days in a row winning with the same $200 goal this past June-July. However, unlike Dave, I limit my losses to $1000 per day and won't go any deeper. He's up about $20k year to date so he can afford to go $3k deep and walk away still ahead.

No, I haven't ran this against any software, i.e. "RNG's". This is all live play with money on the line!

Anyone ever heard of this system? Thoughts?"


http://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?t=117


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Quote: odiousgambit

just went to that site and got tired real quick looking for such a thread

how about just telling us what his method is?
link to original post

Sorry was on mobile but user above me copy pasted the entire thing over.

Quote: lilredrooster

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this is Dave's system ...

thanks

Quote:

"Although I do frequent this website, this is my first actual post. I'm writing about a system that I learned from a guy who's retired and plays everyday. His name is "Dave" and thus I've named it "Dave's" system.

Here's how it works:

1) Dave buys in for $500 at a ten dollar table every morning (yes seven days a week) at the same casino when they open. "When they open?" It's a riverboat casino.

2) Without qualifying the table or the shooters whatsoever, Dave starts immediately betting the DP for $10 with no hedge at all.

3) Once a point is established, he lays the following odds: 6/8= $60 lay, 5/9= $75 lay, 4/10 = no lay. Yes, that's correct, he never, ever lays the four and ten.

well then I can say at least this is different

Quote:

4) After point is established he begins making $10 DC bets. When those travel, he places the odds above depending on what number it is. He never hedges with hardways, yo's, nothing.

5) He keeps on placing DC bets until he's either been hit a total of two times (DP or DC)from the same shooter, at which time he takes all remaining odds down, leaves flats working. Or the shooter sevens out.

he might as well take the line bets down too, he could

Quote:

6) IF the shooter knocks only one of his bets down and then sevens out, Dave goes right back up on him and starts over as if this is a new shooter.

there *will* be a new shooter, so this is odd

Quote:

7) He quits when he can see $200 profit in his rack. I've seen him do it in as little as three minutes and I've watched him for three hours. He, friends and the dealers have all attested that he has made money with this system the last 97 out of 100 or so days. I can honestly say that I have never seen him walk away a loser. However, I know there are times he's still playing long after I've left. In fact, just last week he told me after I left he had played another ten hours before calling it quits!

OK this must be "win and leave" which is avowed to be much better than "hit and run"

Quote:

Other notes:
- If first $500 buy in is lost, he brings out another $500 and will keep doing so up to $3k. After he's in over $1k, he starts laying $180 against the 6/8, $150 against the 5/9 and still nothing ever against the four and ten. OF course, at those levels, his flat bets go up accordingly as this casino offers 10x's odds.

gee I wonder if all those attesting to his success can keep track of all this. Well, I guess they can, 'cuz this is the gospel!

Quote:

-Dave never shoots the dice himself and he only plays one session per day.

-No, the casino never gives him heat. In fact, they all like him as he's always sure to tip them before he leaves.

works for me too! Must have copied me

Quote:

I have used this system and went twenty-four days in a row winning with the same $200 goal this past June-July. However, unlike Dave, I limit my losses to $1000 per day and won't go any deeper. He's up about $20k year to date so he can afford to go $3k deep and walk away still ahead.

No, I haven't ran this against any software, i.e. "RNG's". This is all live play with money on the line!

Anyone ever heard of this system? Thoughts?"


http://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?t=117


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link to original post

my thoughts are this guy might switch from saying "my friend" to admitting it was him all along ... could probably keep the thread going for 13 years

sorry to be such a wise guy but there's nothing to test here with wincraps ... this is "same old stuff"

PS: not too much to criticize either. He's got an overall higher house edge against him by taking no odds action on 4s and 10s. Nothing else to pick at except the 'hit and run' and other superstitions

He's just trying to win 3 or 4 odds bets ahead and calling it a day which seems meager but doable. Quadrupling up for a 3rd buy-in seems like a way to come back. I've had my worst luck with a 3 point Molly, so the 3 point Dolly must be cleaning up.

I'm trying to take notes and make it make some sense to me so it is a little refigured from the original.

$500 buy-in. DP, DC, DC, etc. of $10 with $75 odds on the 5,9 & $60 odds on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.
Win a $200 win goal then leave for the day, come back the next day.
A second buy-in of $500 is allowed. If that loses, a 3rd buy-in of $2K is allowed with:
DP, DC, DC etc. of $15 with $150 odds on the 5,9 & $180 odds on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.

He's won 97% of his sessions and he's up 6 figures so he's refigured his game for a $25 table.

$1.5K buy-in. DP, DC, DC, etc. at $30 with $225 odds on the 5,9 & $180 odds on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.
Win a $600 win goal then leave for the day.
A 2nd buy-in of $1.5K is allowed. If that loses, then a $6K buy in with:
DP, DC, DC, etc. of $50 each with $450 odds on the 5,9 and $540 odds on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.


He keeps on placing DC bets until he's either been hit a total of two times (DP or DC) from the same shooter,
at which time he takes all remaining odds down, leaves flats working. Or the shooter sevens out.
IF the shooter knocks only one of his bets down and then sevens,
Dave goes right back up on him and starts over as if this is a new shooter.
Only odds losses count toward this.
The answer to your question is that he would put up another DP bet.
Remember, he waits for a shooter to hit him twice.
Whether it's one DC and a DP bet, whether it's two DP bets or two DC bets or any combination,
doesn't matter.
He keeps putting up bets until his bets with lays have been knocked off twice.
Again, naturals don't count and yo's on the DC don't count.
********************************************************************
For Bubble Craps, there's only 2X odds locally, so Place to Lose on the 6,8 for the rest of the odds and Lay on the 5,9 for the rest of the odds.

$100 buy-in. DP, DC, DC, etc. of $2 with $4 odds and $11 lay on the 5,9 & $4 odds and $8 P2L on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.
Win a $40 win goal then leave for the day, come back the next day.
A second buy-in of $100 is allowed. If that loses, a 3rd buy-in of $400 is allowed with:
DP, DC, DC etc. of $3 with $6 odds and $24 lay on the 5,9 & $6 odds and $30 P2L on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.

He's won 97% of his sessions and he's up 5 figures so he's refigured his game for a $5 table.

$300 buy-in. DP, DC, DC, etc at $6 with $12 odds and $33 lay on the 5,9 & $12 odds $24 P2L on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.
Win a $120 win goal then leave for the day.
A 2nd buy-in of $300 is allowed. If that loses, then a $1.2K buy in with:
DP, DC, DC, etc. of $10 each with $20 odds and $70 lay on the 5,9 and $20 odds and $88 P2L on the 6,8 & no odds on the 4,10.

****************************************************************
I've seen some posters say they would only use this if they were shooting because you never know the intentions of the other shooters. It could be easy to rack up 3 points on the Don'ts then throw a 7-out. But if you were planning on throwing five 7-winners on the come-out, maybe the Don'ts aren't for you when you shoot.

I ran it on WinCraos using the 35K Zumma actual dice rolls. Instead of increasing the bet sizes after a loss of $1,000, I kept the don't bets at $10, and the odds bets at $60 on the 6/8 and $75 on the 5/9.

Increasing the average bet size does not ensure a player will recover a loss. I will most probably add to the losses.

120 roll sessions

Won 131
Lost 156
Even 5

Total loss over 291sessions was $6,150

Ran it again. This time doubled the bet size when down $1,000 or more.

120 rolls per session
293 sessions
0x 4x 5x odds

Won 135 sessions
Lost 158
Total Lost $5,192
Average loss per session $177.20


Tried it again with 3X odds on the 4 and 10 added
3x 4x 5x odds

Won 138
Lost 155
Total Lost $4,952
Average loss per session $169.00

Tried it with Zero odds on any number

Won 96
Lost 176
Even 21
Total Lost $6,568
Average loss per session 224.16

Thank you Tanko! I suspected as much but it's good to see the data on it.

Odiousgambit this guy apparently did/does exist since multiple forum goers over there have met Dave and watched him in action. He's retired and who knows how giant his bankroll is.

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Thank you Tanko! I suspected as much but it's good to see the data on it.

Odiousgambit this guy apparently did/does exist since multiple forum goers over there have met Dave and watched him in action. He's retired and who knows how giant his bankroll is.

link to original post

well, like I say, not too much to criticize

Some of the things he evidently thinks work in his favor, like picking up bets and skipping some of the freebet action, don't matter much ... thinking there are shooters who will 'get him' based on about nothing, that sounds like me too, however, I would never claim it has any reality... if he thinks so it might help him because anything that has you stop betting is good with -EV. Win and leave [as opposed to hit and run] I actually sort of recommend ... again, anything that has you stopping is good, plus it is good for your morale to walk away with a winning session.

Meanwhile he doesn't do middle table sucker bets , nor even any bet with more than a 1.4% edge as I recall. Yes I think that means you can go a long time on a big bankroll ... it can be cheap entertainment overall. If it gets people who watch him to make only the low edge bets, then let’s celebrate this guy, sure. But I think I know better than to expect that.