The Hedgehog Betting System
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14 members have voted
May 10th, 2023 at 4:28:50 PM
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Normally, I am not big on betting systems.
Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.
That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.
Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.
Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.
The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.
Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%
Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.
At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.
The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.
Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.
That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.
Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.
- You will be making a bet on the pass, don't pass, come or don't come on every roll.
- Take a count of active pass+come bets less active don't pass and don't come bets.
- If the count from step 2 is less than or equal to zero, make a pass or come bet. Otherwise make a don't pass or don't come bet.
Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.
| Net Win | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| -25 | 3 | 0.000000 |
| -24 | 9 | 0.000000 |
| -23 | 8 | 0.000000 |
| -22 | 16 | 0.000000 |
| -21 | 43 | 0.000000 |
| -20 | 99 | 0.000000 |
| -19 | 242 | 0.000000 |
| -18 | 542 | 0.000001 |
| -17 | 1,230 | 0.000001 |
| -16 | 2,648 | 0.000003 |
| -15 | 6,207 | 0.000006 |
| -14 | 13,747 | 0.000014 |
| -13 | 30,263 | 0.000031 |
| -12 | 67,840 | 0.000070 |
| -11 | 149,551 | 0.000154 |
| -10 | 331,297 | 0.000341 |
| -9 | 734,608 | 0.000756 |
| -8 | 1,654,083 | 0.001702 |
| -7 | 3,764,851 | 0.003873 |
| -6 | 8,722,895 | 0.008974 |
| -5 | 20,306,935 | 0.020892 |
| -4 | 45,152,228 | 0.046453 |
| -3 | 83,616,270 | 0.086025 |
| -2 | 210,705,556 | 0.216775 |
| -1 | 111,946,416 | 0.115171 |
| 0 | 90,124,053 | 0.092720 |
| 1 | 141,900,260 | 0.145988 |
| 2 | 93,713,374 | 0.096413 |
| 3 | 60,117,182 | 0.061849 |
| 4 | 38,701,517 | 0.039816 |
| 5 | 23,968,320 | 0.024659 |
| 6 | 14,517,057 | 0.014935 |
| 7 | 8,737,231 | 0.008989 |
| 8 | 5,232,389 | 0.005383 |
| 9 | 3,128,644 | 0.003219 |
| 10 | 1,870,559 | 0.001924 |
| 11 | 1,117,544 | 0.001150 |
| 12 | 668,438 | 0.000688 |
| 13 | 399,534 | 0.000411 |
| 14 | 238,689 | 0.000246 |
| 15 | 142,995 | 0.000147 |
| 16 | 85,904 | 0.000088 |
| 17 | 51,322 | 0.000053 |
| 18 | 30,912 | 0.000032 |
| 19 | 18,730 | 0.000019 |
| 20 | 11,191 | 0.000012 |
| 21 | 6,698 | 0.000007 |
| 22 | 3,927 | 0.000004 |
| 23 | 2,398 | 0.000002 |
| 24 | 1,441 | 0.000001 |
| 25 | 814 | 0.000001 |
| 26 | 515 | 0.000001 |
| 27 | 318 | 0.000000 |
| 28 | 179 | 0.000000 |
| 29 | 111 | 0.000000 |
| 30 | 64 | 0.000000 |
| 31 | 38 | 0.000000 |
| 32 | 29 | 0.000000 |
| 33 | 19 | 0.000000 |
| 34 | 9 | 0.000000 |
| 35 | 5 | 0.000000 |
| 36 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 38 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 43 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 972,000,000 | 1.000000 |
The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.
Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%
Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.
At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.
The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.
Last edited by: Wizard on May 10, 2023
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 10th, 2023 at 4:47:02 PM
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Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:
If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
May 10th, 2023 at 4:48:49 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyLet me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:
If the number of active pass & come bets >= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post
The opposite.
If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 10th, 2023 at 4:50:12 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: ThatDonGuyLet me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:
If the number of active pass & come bets >= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post
The opposite.
If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post
Right. I edited my post before seeing your reply.
Question (you would think I would know this by now, but not being much of a come bettor, I don't): are come bets good on a come-out roll?
If so, then I think I can reduce the system further:
1. Start with a pass (or come) bet
2. Alternate between pass / come and don't pass / don't come, except:
(a) If a roll is not a point and not a 7, repeat the previous bet;
(b) If a pass/come bet roll is a 7, all bets are resolved, so start again with another pass/come bet.
Another way to put it:
Start with a pass / come bet
After each roll, if the roll is:
(a) a point number, the next bet is the other way;
(b) a 2, 3, 11, or 12, the next bet is the same way;
(c) a 7, the next bet is Pass / Come
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on May 10, 2023
May 10th, 2023 at 5:21:23 PM
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Blasphemy
May 10th, 2023 at 6:39:29 PM
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I have created and used a system for low volatility to help overcome Rollover. I have entertained the idea
of letting you look at it but its valuable to me and I have trust issues. Although they can't overcome the house edge
in the grand scheme of things they can be useful.
of letting you look at it but its valuable to me and I have trust issues. Although they can't overcome the house edge
in the grand scheme of things they can be useful.
May 10th, 2023 at 7:06:15 PM
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I need royalties for that picture.Quote: WizardNormally, I am not big on betting systems.
Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.
That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.
Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.
- You will be making a bet on the pass, don't pass, come or don't come on every roll.
- Take a count of active pass+come bets less active don't pass and don't come bets.
- If the count from step 2 is less than or equal to zero, make a pass or come bet. Otherwise make a don't pass or don't come bet.
Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.
Net Win Count Probability -25 3 0.000000 -24 9 0.000000 -23 8 0.000000 -22 16 0.000000 -21 43 0.000000 -20 99 0.000000 -19 242 0.000000 -18 542 0.000001 -17 1,230 0.000001 -16 2,648 0.000003 -15 6,207 0.000006 -14 13,747 0.000014 -13 30,263 0.000031 -12 67,840 0.000070 -11 149,551 0.000154 -10 331,297 0.000341 -9 734,608 0.000756 -8 1,654,083 0.001702 -7 3,764,851 0.003873 -6 8,722,895 0.008974 -5 20,306,935 0.020892 -4 45,152,228 0.046453 -3 83,616,270 0.086025 -2 210,705,556 0.216775 -1 111,946,416 0.115171 0 90,124,053 0.092720 1 141,900,260 0.145988 2 93,713,374 0.096413 3 60,117,182 0.061849 4 38,701,517 0.039816 5 23,968,320 0.024659 6 14,517,057 0.014935 7 8,737,231 0.008989 8 5,232,389 0.005383 9 3,128,644 0.003219 10 1,870,559 0.001924 11 1,117,544 0.001150 12 668,438 0.000688 13 399,534 0.000411 14 238,689 0.000246 15 142,995 0.000147 16 85,904 0.000088 17 51,322 0.000053 18 30,912 0.000032 19 18,730 0.000019 20 11,191 0.000012 21 6,698 0.000007 22 3,927 0.000004 23 2,398 0.000002 24 1,441 0.000001 25 814 0.000001 26 515 0.000001 27 318 0.000000 28 179 0.000000 29 111 0.000000 30 64 0.000000 31 38 0.000000 32 29 0.000000 33 19 0.000000 34 9 0.000000 35 5 0.000000 36 1 0.000000 38 1 0.000000 43 1 0.000000 Total 972,000,000 1.000000
The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.
Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%
Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.
At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.
The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 10th, 2023 at 8:25:36 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy
Question (you would think I would know this by now, but not being much of a come bettor, I don't): are come bets good on a come-out roll?
If so, then I think I can reduce the system further:
1. Start with a pass (or come) bet
2. Alternate between pass / come and don't pass / don't come, except:
(a) If a roll is not a point and not a 7, repeat the previous bet;
(b) If a pass/come bet roll is a 7, all bets are resolved, so start again with another pass/come bet.
Another way to put it:
Start with a pass / come bet
After each roll, if the roll is:
(a) a point number, the next bet is the other way;
(b) a 2, 3, 11, or 12, the next bet is the same way;
(c) a 7, the next bet is Pass / Come
link to original post
I wrote a system to try to answer this, but now see your concept is a bit different.
What I just ran alternated sides after every roll, including a 2, 3, 11 or 12. Here are the results.
| Net win | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| -34 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| -33 | 4 | 0.000000 |
| -32 | 5 | 0.000000 |
| -31 | 7 | 0.000000 |
| -30 | 25 | 0.000000 |
| -29 | 27 | 0.000000 |
| -28 | 88 | 0.000000 |
| -27 | 97 | 0.000000 |
| -26 | 268 | 0.000000 |
| -25 | 324 | 0.000000 |
| -24 | 971 | 0.000000 |
| -23 | 1,226 | 0.000000 |
| -22 | 3,630 | 0.000001 |
| -21 | 4,119 | 0.000001 |
| -20 | 13,352 | 0.000002 |
| -19 | 14,305 | 0.000002 |
| -18 | 49,148 | 0.000008 |
| -17 | 49,025 | 0.000008 |
| -16 | 182,507 | 0.000032 |
| -15 | 169,557 | 0.000029 |
| -14 | 678,568 | 0.000117 |
| -13 | 578,048 | 0.000100 |
| -12 | 2,511,824 | 0.000434 |
| -11 | 1,950,433 | 0.000337 |
| -10 | 9,115,196 | 0.001575 |
| -9 | 6,402,000 | 0.001106 |
| -8 | 32,219,767 | 0.005569 |
| -7 | 20,226,860 | 0.003496 |
| -6 | 110,170,340 | 0.019041 |
| -5 | 60,689,565 | 0.010489 |
| -4 | 374,554,107 | 0.064735 |
| -3 | 173,543,878 | 0.029994 |
| -2 | 1,445,832,836 | 0.249885 |
| -1 | 421,661,139 | 0.072876 |
| 0 | 653,319,059 | 0.112914 |
| 1 | 1,072,061,195 | 0.185285 |
| 2 | 279,957,698 | 0.048385 |
| 3 | 633,193,279 | 0.109435 |
| 4 | 108,521,779 | 0.018756 |
| 5 | 224,061,599 | 0.038725 |
| 6 | 38,722,496 | 0.006692 |
| 7 | 69,699,699 | 0.012046 |
| 8 | 12,886,620 | 0.002227 |
| 9 | 20,101,167 | 0.003474 |
| 10 | 4,026,313 | 0.000696 |
| 11 | 5,372,787 | 0.000929 |
| 12 | 1,183,026 | 0.000204 |
| 13 | 1,367,086 | 0.000236 |
| 14 | 333,204 | 0.000058 |
| 15 | 337,083 | 0.000058 |
| 16 | 90,836 | 0.000016 |
| 17 | 82,742 | 0.000014 |
| 18 | 23,911 | 0.000004 |
| 19 | 20,087 | 0.000003 |
| 20 | 6,339 | 0.000001 |
| 21 | 4,950 | 0.000001 |
| 22 | 1,635 | 0.000000 |
| 23 | 1,208 | 0.000000 |
| 24 | 429 | 0.000000 |
| 25 | 297 | 0.000000 |
| 26 | 105 | 0.000000 |
| 27 | 70 | 0.000000 |
| 28 | 29 | 0.000000 |
| 29 | 10 | 0.000000 |
| 30 | 7 | 0.000000 |
| 31 | 4 | 0.000000 |
| 32 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 33 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 34 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 5,786,000,000 | 1.000000 |
Standard deviation = 2.903.
Let me run it your way next.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 10th, 2023 at 9:26:18 PM
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Well, I need to get at least 35 units ahead. I guess my Win/Loss goals with the above chart would be (-10, +8).
Pretty sure I can win 10 times ahead on the DP before I won 10X ahead on the PL.
Pretty sure I can win 10 times ahead on the DP before I won 10X ahead on the PL.
May 10th, 2023 at 9:30:13 PM
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Is this the same as “always coming” except that you do it for both come and DC? Always coming is the final step beyond a six-point-molly.
So you’d keep making come/DC bets (alternating) until (potentially) you have bets on all six points, going both ways. And still with a come or dc bet
Doesn’t this break one of the key rules/commandments ? Betting both sides of the table
So you’d keep making come/DC bets (alternating) until (potentially) you have bets on all six points, going both ways. And still with a come or dc bet
Doesn’t this break one of the key rules/commandments ? Betting both sides of the table
It’s all about making that GTA
May 11th, 2023 at 2:39:51 AM
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.
re the blue table of statistics - I don't understand why the numbers and probabilities of a net win are greater than those of a net loss for each number
for example - why would you have 111 million plus net losses of 1 with a probability of 0.115171
and 141 million plus net wins of 1 with a probability of 0.145988
thanks for the explanation
.
re the blue table of statistics - I don't understand why the numbers and probabilities of a net win are greater than those of a net loss for each number
for example - why would you have 111 million plus net losses of 1 with a probability of 0.115171
and 141 million plus net wins of 1 with a probability of 0.145988
thanks for the explanation
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 11th, 2023 at 5:39:10 AM
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I played for a bit in the free game just to get the feel of it. I would agree it is not for regular Craps play where a player wants to take a ride on the variance train.Quote: WizardIt is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.
link to original postQuote:The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.
is 0.34 the SD per bet, versus the standard deviation of "about one" for playing the pass line with no odds?
Well, I never have played for ratings. I get very irritated with high table minimums, so I might use this to be at the table when a friend wants to play but I don't like that minimum.
I added up the outcome probabilities for winning 5 units or losing 5 units [plus the in-between outcomes] and I get 0.946761, or 1 in 1.05623... almost even chances... that you will be up, or down, 5 units or less. At a $25 table, which irks me, that's up or down $125. I think I did that right.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 11th, 2023 at 3:45:28 PM
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Quote: Ace2Is this the same as “always coming” except that you do it for both come and DC?
link to original post
Yes. You always make a line bet. If you already cover all six points, either for or against, you keep going. The next bet will replace one you win or lose if you throw another point.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 11th, 2023 at 3:47:04 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
re the blue table of statistics - I don't understand why the numbers and probabilities of a net win are greater than those of a net loss for each number
for example - why would you have 111 million plus net losses of 1 with a probability of 0.115171
and 141 million plus net wins of 1 with a probability of 0.145988
thanks for the explanation
.
link to original post
Those probabilities are based on the 972,000,000 shooters in the simulation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 11th, 2023 at 3:49:20 PM
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Quote: odiousgambit
I added up the outcome probabilities for winning 5 units or losing 5 units [plus the in-between outcomes] and I get 0.946761, or 1 in 1.05623... almost even chances... that you will be up, or down, 5 units or less. At a $25 table, which irks me, that's up or down $125. I think I did that right.
link to original post
Yes, you did that right, a 94.68% chance of winning or losing five or less units.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 11th, 2023 at 3:52:23 PM
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I did a "version 3" of the Hedgehog, where the player alternates sides every throw. No more counting which side has a deficit. Here are the results.
The standard deviation per shooter is 2.895671. This is 0.007855 greater than the original version. I think I'll go with this "version 3" when I properly write this up. It's easier to explain, for one thing.
Next, I think I'll see how betting/laying the odds affects things.
| Net Win | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| -43 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -37 | 3 | 0.000000 |
| -36 | 10 | 0.000000 |
| -35 | 14 | 0.000000 |
| -34 | 26 | 0.000000 |
| -33 | 45 | 0.000000 |
| -32 | 84 | 0.000000 |
| -31 | 150 | 0.000000 |
| -30 | 261 | 0.000000 |
| -29 | 484 | 0.000000 |
| -28 | 801 | 0.000000 |
| -27 | 1,428 | 0.000000 |
| -26 | 2,558 | 0.000000 |
| -25 | 4,603 | 0.000000 |
| -24 | 8,000 | 0.000000 |
| -23 | 14,002 | 0.000000 |
| -22 | 24,639 | 0.000001 |
| -21 | 43,121 | 0.000001 |
| -20 | 75,225 | 0.000002 |
| -19 | 133,387 | 0.000003 |
| -18 | 235,323 | 0.000006 |
| -17 | 417,184 | 0.000010 |
| -16 | 748,030 | 0.000018 |
| -15 | 1,356,993 | 0.000033 |
| -14 | 2,489,691 | 0.000061 |
| -13 | 4,639,129 | 0.000113 |
| -12 | 8,798,380 | 0.000215 |
| -11 | 16,986,230 | 0.000415 |
| -10 | 33,095,270 | 0.000809 |
| -9 | 63,940,655 | 0.001563 |
| -8 | 122,333,490 | 0.002991 |
| -7 | 230,427,295 | 0.005633 |
| -6 | 446,713,689 | 0.010921 |
| -5 | 818,983,030 | 0.020022 |
| -4 | 1,701,332,926 | 0.041593 |
| -3 | 2,913,134,258 | 0.071219 |
| -2 | 8,679,178,778 | 0.212184 |
| -1 | 4,919,388,623 | 0.120267 |
| 0 | 4,436,029,918 | 0.108450 |
| 1 | 6,245,052,375 | 0.152676 |
| 2 | 3,593,149,360 | 0.087843 |
| 3 | 2,525,579,132 | 0.061744 |
| 4 | 1,572,668,551 | 0.038448 |
| 5 | 1,050,422,363 | 0.025680 |
| 6 | 631,648,949 | 0.015442 |
| 7 | 379,235,411 | 0.009271 |
| 8 | 219,823,092 | 0.005374 |
| 9 | 126,619,555 | 0.003096 |
| 10 | 71,545,387 | 0.001749 |
| 11 | 39,659,125 | 0.000970 |
| 12 | 21,728,568 | 0.000531 |
| 13 | 11,884,019 | 0.000291 |
| 14 | 6,513,521 | 0.000159 |
| 15 | 3,571,597 | 0.000087 |
| 16 | 1,960,385 | 0.000048 |
| 17 | 1,079,105 | 0.000026 |
| 18 | 592,173 | 0.000014 |
| 19 | 327,781 | 0.000008 |
| 20 | 180,719 | 0.000004 |
| 21 | 99,176 | 0.000002 |
| 22 | 54,880 | 0.000001 |
| 23 | 30,056 | 0.000001 |
| 24 | 16,611 | 0.000000 |
| 25 | 9,103 | 0.000000 |
| 26 | 5,098 | 0.000000 |
| 27 | 2,755 | 0.000000 |
| 28 | 1,547 | 0.000000 |
| 29 | 875 | 0.000000 |
| 30 | 442 | 0.000000 |
| 31 | 230 | 0.000000 |
| 32 | 135 | 0.000000 |
| 33 | 82 | 0.000000 |
| 34 | 47 | 0.000000 |
| 35 | 27 | 0.000000 |
| 36 | 14 | 0.000000 |
| 37 | 9 | 0.000000 |
| 38 | 6 | 0.000000 |
| 39 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 40 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 41 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 45 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 40,904,000,000 | 1.000000 |
The standard deviation per shooter is 2.895671. This is 0.007855 greater than the original version. I think I'll go with this "version 3" when I properly write this up. It's easier to explain, for one thing.
Next, I think I'll see how betting/laying the odds affects things.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 11th, 2023 at 4:01:06 PM
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I sort of like this betting style.
However, it could be hard to keep track of your bets, especially after a few drinks. Backing several numbers and also laying a couple
However, it could be hard to keep track of your bets, especially after a few drinks. Backing several numbers and also laying a couple
It’s all about making that GTA
May 11th, 2023 at 4:24:18 PM
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Hedgehog strategy looks very similar to "Wait for the Wife" strategy on another thread. 972 million shooters or outcomes of only Pass, Come, DP, or DC. No Odds either Taken or Laid. Negligible variance. Minimal expected loss. Hedgehog specifies an approximate Bright/Dark balancing while Wait permits whimsical bet selection. Indistinguishable net results.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
May 11th, 2023 at 5:31:19 PM
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I get confused and just bet the PL on the come-out after a 7-out or after a point is made or until the point is established. Then I start alternating DC & Come. But this strategy seems like a lot of pointless redundancy that's gonna run up the house edge before I ever get far ahead.
If I was gonna add odds to it, it'd probably be triple odds on either side so the DC bets can be divided by 6, ie. a $10 bet with $30 odds, or 10X that if you wanna go broke faster.
If I was gonna add odds to it, it'd probably be triple odds on either side so the DC bets can be divided by 6, ie. a $10 bet with $30 odds, or 10X that if you wanna go broke faster.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on May 11, 2023
May 11th, 2023 at 6:10:50 PM
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I previously simulated the always coming betting style on a per roll basis. The standard deviation is 2.61. So if you’re going to play 900 rolls, for instance, you will have made 900 bets with an expectation of -12.7 units +/- 78.3.
Can someone please simulate the hedgehog style on a per roll basis. The volume and expectation should be the same but the SD should be lower only because there will often be a netting effect when a seven out happens.
Can someone please simulate the hedgehog style on a per roll basis. The volume and expectation should be the same but the SD should be lower only because there will often be a netting effect when a seven out happens.
It’s all about making that GTA
May 12th, 2023 at 5:26:37 AM
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I tried this on Crapsee. I would start with a Don't Pass. Then Come. As long as you avoid a 7 on the Come Out, you're in good shape for a Point-7-Out. Then alternate Don't Come and Come. I was using the Bubble Craps version with $5 and using 2x odds. After 100 rolls, I was down about 80 cents. Was up as high as $85 at one point.
May 12th, 2023 at 6:59:56 AM
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Here are the results of version 3 of the Hedgehog (alternating the do and don't sides, starting with do), with 3-4-5-x odds.
variance per shooter = 167.66
std dev per shooter = 12.95
House edge = 0.35%
| Net win | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| -176 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -169 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -164 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -158 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| -157 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| -155 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -154 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| -153 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| -152 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| -151 | 3 | 0.000000 |
| -150 | 4 | 0.000000 |
| -149 | 5 | 0.000000 |
| -148 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -147 | 4 | 0.000000 |
| -146 | 6 | 0.000000 |
| -145 | 6 | 0.000000 |
| -144 | 3 | 0.000000 |
| -143 | 8 | 0.000000 |
| -142 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| -141 | 7 | 0.000000 |
| -140 | 5 | 0.000000 |
| -139 | 12 | 0.000000 |
| -138 | 13 | 0.000000 |
| -137 | 12 | 0.000000 |
| -136 | 11 | 0.000000 |
| -135 | 24 | 0.000000 |
| -134 | 11 | 0.000000 |
| -133 | 29 | 0.000000 |
| -132 | 31 | 0.000000 |
| -131 | 26 | 0.000000 |
| -130 | 34 | 0.000000 |
| -129 | 46 | 0.000000 |
| -128 | 38 | 0.000000 |
| -127 | 54 | 0.000000 |
| -126 | 39 | 0.000000 |
| -125 | 46 | 0.000000 |
| -124 | 61 | 0.000000 |
| -123 | 73 | 0.000000 |
| -122 | 99 | 0.000000 |
| -121 | 102 | 0.000000 |
| -120 | 117 | 0.000000 |
| -119 | 127 | 0.000000 |
| -118 | 162 | 0.000000 |
| -117 | 166 | 0.000000 |
| -116 | 185 | 0.000000 |
| -115 | 214 | 0.000000 |
| -114 | 213 | 0.000000 |
| -113 | 244 | 0.000000 |
| -112 | 272 | 0.000000 |
| -111 | 332 | 0.000000 |
| -110 | 414 | 0.000000 |
| -109 | 454 | 0.000000 |
| -108 | 489 | 0.000000 |
| -107 | 598 | 0.000000 |
| -106 | 740 | 0.000000 |
| -105 | 754 | 0.000000 |
| -104 | 836 | 0.000000 |
| -103 | 833 | 0.000000 |
| -102 | 1,009 | 0.000000 |
| -101 | 1,088 | 0.000000 |
| -100 | 1,186 | 0.000000 |
| -99 | 1,397 | 0.000000 |
| -98 | 1,598 | 0.000000 |
| -97 | 2,021 | 0.000000 |
| -96 | 2,461 | 0.000000 |
| -95 | 2,851 | 0.000000 |
| -94 | 3,206 | 0.000000 |
| -93 | 3,577 | 0.000000 |
| -92 | 3,899 | 0.000000 |
| -91 | 4,140 | 0.000000 |
| -90 | 4,321 | 0.000000 |
| -89 | 4,680 | 0.000000 |
| -88 | 5,126 | 0.000000 |
| -87 | 5,783 | 0.000001 |
| -86 | 6,934 | 0.000001 |
| -85 | 8,323 | 0.000001 |
| -84 | 10,170 | 0.000001 |
| -83 | 12,034 | 0.000001 |
| -82 | 14,144 | 0.000001 |
| -81 | 15,509 | 0.000001 |
| -80 | 16,571 | 0.000001 |
| -79 | 17,662 | 0.000002 |
| -78 | 18,513 | 0.000002 |
| -77 | 19,386 | 0.000002 |
| -76 | 20,968 | 0.000002 |
| -75 | 24,011 | 0.000002 |
| -74 | 27,797 | 0.000002 |
| -73 | 34,644 | 0.000003 |
| -72 | 42,978 | 0.000004 |
| -71 | 55,362 | 0.000005 |
| -70 | 70,628 | 0.000006 |
| -69 | 94,181 | 0.000008 |
| -68 | 126,929 | 0.000011 |
| -67 | 166,274 | 0.000015 |
| -66 | 186,390 | 0.000016 |
| -65 | 166,679 | 0.000015 |
| -64 | 134,740 | 0.000012 |
| -63 | 116,544 | 0.000010 |
| -62 | 116,743 | 0.000010 |
| -61 | 132,260 | 0.000012 |
| -60 | 160,920 | 0.000014 |
| -59 | 204,649 | 0.000018 |
| -58 | 274,622 | 0.000024 |
| -57 | 394,905 | 0.000035 |
| -56 | 579,698 | 0.000051 |
| -55 | 768,326 | 0.000067 |
| -54 | 782,485 | 0.000068 |
| -53 | 673,599 | 0.000059 |
| -52 | 561,053 | 0.000049 |
| -51 | 555,337 | 0.000049 |
| -50 | 674,727 | 0.000059 |
| -49 | 888,885 | 0.000078 |
| -48 | 1,170,050 | 0.000102 |
| -47 | 1,625,638 | 0.000142 |
| -46 | 2,384,061 | 0.000208 |
| -45 | 3,637,395 | 0.000318 |
| -44 | 5,162,440 | 0.000451 |
| -43 | 6,148,720 | 0.000538 |
| -42 | 6,295,751 | 0.000550 |
| -41 | 5,553,383 | 0.000486 |
| -40 | 4,667,047 | 0.000408 |
| -39 | 3,761,362 | 0.000329 |
| -38 | 3,448,795 | 0.000302 |
| -37 | 3,789,844 | 0.000331 |
| -36 | 4,640,657 | 0.000406 |
| -35 | 6,051,742 | 0.000529 |
| -34 | 9,097,224 | 0.000795 |
| -33 | 14,342,263 | 0.001254 |
| -32 | 21,544,898 | 0.001884 |
| -31 | 26,830,383 | 0.002346 |
| -30 | 27,285,455 | 0.002386 |
| -29 | 24,321,453 | 0.002126 |
| -28 | 19,251,124 | 0.001683 |
| -27 | 15,836,757 | 0.001385 |
| -26 | 16,571,320 | 0.001449 |
| -25 | 20,453,612 | 0.001788 |
| -24 | 25,297,856 | 0.002212 |
| -23 | 32,707,213 | 0.002860 |
| -22 | 44,189,537 | 0.003863 |
| -21 | 66,870,867 | 0.005846 |
| -20 | 105,099,071 | 0.009189 |
| -19 | 143,324,289 | 0.012531 |
| -18 | 149,289,878 | 0.013052 |
| -17 | 124,316,203 | 0.010869 |
| -16 | 86,170,294 | 0.007534 |
| -15 | 62,000,317 | 0.005421 |
| -14 | 61,644,435 | 0.005389 |
| -13 | 79,013,862 | 0.006908 |
| -12 | 97,745,180 | 0.008546 |
| -11 | 119,436,785 | 0.010442 |
| -10 | 137,891,100 | 0.012056 |
| -9 | 189,200,797 | 0.016541 |
| -8 | 356,106,944 | 0.031134 |
| -7 | 973,250,031 | 0.085089 |
| -6 | 1,048,544,525 | 0.091672 |
| -5 | 838,466,276 | 0.073305 |
| -4 | 381,861,182 | 0.033385 |
| -3 | 194,327,514 | 0.016990 |
| -2 | 177,116,245 | 0.015485 |
| -1 | 323,587,345 | 0.028291 |
| 0 | 504,371,262 | 0.044096 |
| 1 | 543,369,362 | 0.047506 |
| 2 | 549,560,581 | 0.048047 |
| 3 | 406,249,283 | 0.035518 |
| 4 | 261,980,037 | 0.022904 |
| 5 | 224,449,549 | 0.019623 |
| 6 | 218,569,645 | 0.019109 |
| 7 | 205,268,349 | 0.017946 |
| 8 | 165,164,178 | 0.014440 |
| 9 | 125,021,325 | 0.010930 |
| 10 | 114,430,250 | 0.010004 |
| 11 | 137,365,793 | 0.012010 |
| 12 | 169,575,436 | 0.014826 |
| 13 | 188,665,020 | 0.016495 |
| 14 | 176,959,437 | 0.015471 |
| 15 | 155,571,610 | 0.013601 |
| 16 | 121,696,503 | 0.010640 |
| 17 | 94,776,016 | 0.008286 |
| 18 | 77,785,974 | 0.006801 |
| 19 | 65,588,509 | 0.005734 |
| 20 | 55,928,052 | 0.004890 |
| 21 | 48,949,772 | 0.004280 |
| 22 | 47,918,256 | 0.004189 |
| 23 | 55,225,508 | 0.004828 |
| 24 | 66,149,863 | 0.005783 |
| 25 | 73,590,012 | 0.006434 |
| 26 | 72,281,356 | 0.006319 |
| 27 | 63,501,784 | 0.005552 |
| 28 | 49,674,206 | 0.004343 |
| 29 | 37,078,988 | 0.003242 |
| 30 | 28,446,927 | 0.002487 |
| 31 | 22,377,642 | 0.001956 |
| 32 | 18,409,705 | 0.001610 |
| 33 | 15,459,591 | 0.001352 |
| 34 | 14,461,830 | 0.001264 |
| 35 | 15,632,017 | 0.001367 |
| 36 | 17,615,611 | 0.001540 |
| 37 | 18,698,068 | 0.001635 |
| 38 | 18,784,149 | 0.001642 |
| 39 | 16,485,635 | 0.001441 |
| 40 | 12,860,868 | 0.001124 |
| 41 | 9,433,877 | 0.000825 |
| 42 | 6,947,944 | 0.000607 |
| 43 | 5,472,074 | 0.000478 |
| 44 | 4,564,949 | 0.000399 |
| 45 | 4,159,568 | 0.000364 |
| 46 | 4,260,289 | 0.000372 |
| 47 | 4,718,517 | 0.000413 |
| 48 | 5,165,337 | 0.000452 |
| 49 | 5,521,081 | 0.000483 |
| 50 | 5,423,010 | 0.000474 |
| 51 | 4,811,135 | 0.000421 |
| 52 | 3,768,581 | 0.000329 |
| 53 | 2,774,400 | 0.000243 |
| 54 | 2,045,932 | 0.000179 |
| 55 | 1,539,327 | 0.000135 |
| 56 | 1,197,072 | 0.000105 |
| 57 | 956,224 | 0.000084 |
| 58 | 820,286 | 0.000072 |
| 59 | 794,384 | 0.000069 |
| 60 | 855,163 | 0.000075 |
| 61 | 921,300 | 0.000081 |
| 62 | 910,208 | 0.000080 |
| 63 | 790,550 | 0.000069 |
| 64 | 642,521 | 0.000056 |
| 65 | 512,819 | 0.000045 |
| 66 | 405,136 | 0.000035 |
| 67 | 321,312 | 0.000028 |
| 68 | 258,078 | 0.000023 |
| 69 | 218,640 | 0.000019 |
| 70 | 201,953 | 0.000018 |
| 71 | 206,712 | 0.000018 |
| 72 | 223,207 | 0.000020 |
| 73 | 231,300 | 0.000020 |
| 74 | 214,372 | 0.000019 |
| 75 | 182,383 | 0.000016 |
| 76 | 150,563 | 0.000013 |
| 77 | 123,676 | 0.000011 |
| 78 | 98,694 | 0.000009 |
| 79 | 78,582 | 0.000007 |
| 80 | 62,987 | 0.000006 |
| 81 | 51,302 | 0.000004 |
| 82 | 44,018 | 0.000004 |
| 83 | 39,497 | 0.000003 |
| 84 | 37,288 | 0.000003 |
| 85 | 36,215 | 0.000003 |
| 86 | 35,515 | 0.000003 |
| 87 | 33,968 | 0.000003 |
| 88 | 30,896 | 0.000003 |
| 89 | 26,869 | 0.000002 |
| 90 | 22,723 | 0.000002 |
| 91 | 18,799 | 0.000002 |
| 92 | 15,300 | 0.000001 |
| 93 | 12,333 | 0.000001 |
| 94 | 10,445 | 0.000001 |
| 95 | 9,186 | 0.000001 |
| 96 | 8,461 | 0.000001 |
| 97 | 8,234 | 0.000001 |
| 98 | 7,671 | 0.000001 |
| 99 | 7,468 | 0.000001 |
| 100 | 6,779 | 0.000001 |
| 101 | 5,826 | 0.000001 |
| 102 | 5,106 | 0.000000 |
| 103 | 4,328 | 0.000000 |
| 104 | 3,505 | 0.000000 |
| 105 | 2,843 | 0.000000 |
| 106 | 2,390 | 0.000000 |
| 107 | 2,063 | 0.000000 |
| 108 | 1,802 | 0.000000 |
| 109 | 1,742 | 0.000000 |
| 110 | 1,604 | 0.000000 |
| 111 | 1,564 | 0.000000 |
| 112 | 1,454 | 0.000000 |
| 113 | 1,278 | 0.000000 |
| 114 | 1,103 | 0.000000 |
| 115 | 878 | 0.000000 |
| 116 | 820 | 0.000000 |
| 117 | 685 | 0.000000 |
| 118 | 581 | 0.000000 |
| 119 | 463 | 0.000000 |
| 120 | 400 | 0.000000 |
| 121 | 377 | 0.000000 |
| 122 | 374 | 0.000000 |
| 123 | 347 | 0.000000 |
| 124 | 268 | 0.000000 |
| 125 | 261 | 0.000000 |
| 126 | 239 | 0.000000 |
| 127 | 220 | 0.000000 |
| 128 | 157 | 0.000000 |
| 129 | 149 | 0.000000 |
| 130 | 149 | 0.000000 |
| 131 | 106 | 0.000000 |
| 132 | 83 | 0.000000 |
| 133 | 96 | 0.000000 |
| 134 | 67 | 0.000000 |
| 135 | 66 | 0.000000 |
| 136 | 69 | 0.000000 |
| 137 | 41 | 0.000000 |
| 138 | 39 | 0.000000 |
| 139 | 55 | 0.000000 |
| 140 | 38 | 0.000000 |
| 141 | 35 | 0.000000 |
| 142 | 24 | 0.000000 |
| 143 | 29 | 0.000000 |
| 144 | 13 | 0.000000 |
| 145 | 20 | 0.000000 |
| 146 | 13 | 0.000000 |
| 147 | 12 | 0.000000 |
| 148 | 8 | 0.000000 |
| 149 | 12 | 0.000000 |
| 150 | 11 | 0.000000 |
| 151 | 8 | 0.000000 |
| 152 | 10 | 0.000000 |
| 153 | 14 | 0.000000 |
| 154 | 6 | 0.000000 |
| 155 | 8 | 0.000000 |
| 156 | 8 | 0.000000 |
| 157 | 6 | 0.000000 |
| 158 | 4 | 0.000000 |
| 159 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 160 | 6 | 0.000000 |
| 161 | 4 | 0.000000 |
| 162 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 163 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 164 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 166 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 167 | 3 | 0.000000 |
| 169 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 170 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 172 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 173 | 2 | 0.000000 |
| 174 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 175 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 181 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 189 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| 197 | 1 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 11,438,000,000 | 1.000000 |
variance per shooter = 167.66
std dev per shooter = 12.95
House edge = 0.35%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 12th, 2023 at 7:12:24 AM
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I might buy-in for 20 units and try to win 15 units. But I guess that chart is for per shooter, so I'm likely woefully underfunded. Maybe buy-in for 300 units and try to win 225 units.
May 12th, 2023 at 7:28:22 AM
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Quote: Ace2Can someone please simulate the hedgehog style on a per roll basis. The volume and expectation should be the same but the SD should be lower only because there will often be a netting effect when a seven out happens.
link to original post
I was thinking about this too. It seems statistically unkosher to me throw out such a statistic, because there can be multiple overlapping bets. However, if forced, couldn't one divide the per shooter standard deviation by sqrt(8.5255)? The average rolls per shooter is 8.5255.
I could get a direct per roll standard deviation, but it would betray the fact that the player can expect to alternate wins and losses using this system, more or less.
Consider a game where you won a unit and lost a unit alternating back and forth. What would be the standard deviation of 1,000,000 bets? I say 0, but a per roll simulation would say 1,000.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 12th, 2023 at 7:37:00 AM
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Wouldn't that reduce the standard deviation by 65.75%? That's nearly 2/3rds of the bets overlapping and adding onto the house edge.
How is your hedgehog chart different than a straight Do side run?
How is your hedgehog chart different than a straight Do side run?
May 12th, 2023 at 12:18:25 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangeWouldn't that reduce the standard deviation by 65.75%? That's nearly 2/3rds of the bets overlapping and adding onto the house edge.
How is your hedgehog chart different than a straight Do side run?
link to original post
You're absolutely right, there is a lot of bet overlapping. One of my Ten Commandments of Gambling is "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." That is exactly what this system is doing.
To that, I would say that sometimes commandments are meant to be broken. A reason for using the Hedgehog would be the casino overrates and overcomps craps players who make only line bets. I have known plenty of advantage players over the years who gave straight up play in low house edge games and craps was one of the most popular.
As to your question, do you mean a player who bets the pass or come on every bet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 12th, 2023 at 12:36:28 PM
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Just as a point of clarification, my table for version 3 with the odds had all odds bets working, both ways (do and don't) on a come out roll.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 1st, 2023 at 2:17:18 PM
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Here is my video on the Hedgehog.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 2nd, 2023 at 3:19:47 AM
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.
Mr. Wiz -
in your blog on craps (linked) you state that the house edge on Don't Pass is 1.36 per bet made and 1.40% on bet resolved
I don't quite understand that
I never before heard of this difference in Don't Pass
and I also noticed in the same blog that the house edge is the same - 1.41% for betting Pass on either per bet made or resolved
if the house edge differs in bet made and bet resolved for Don't Pass why wouldn't it differ when betting Pass____?
you also state that there is a much lower house edge per roll on both Pass and Don't Pass
I don't understand this either
please explain - thanks
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
.
Mr. Wiz -
in your blog on craps (linked) you state that the house edge on Don't Pass is 1.36 per bet made and 1.40% on bet resolved
I don't quite understand that
I never before heard of this difference in Don't Pass
and I also noticed in the same blog that the house edge is the same - 1.41% for betting Pass on either per bet made or resolved
if the house edge differs in bet made and bet resolved for Don't Pass why wouldn't it differ when betting Pass____?
you also state that there is a much lower house edge per roll on both Pass and Don't Pass
I don't understand this either
please explain - thanks
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 2, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 2nd, 2023 at 11:32:02 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Mr. Wiz -
in your blog on craps (linked) you state that the house edge on Don't Pass is 1.36 per bet made and 1.40% on bet resolved
.
link to original post
It depends on how you treat a total of 12 on the come out roll of the don't pass. Did it resolve the bet with a push, in which case it's 1.36%. Or do you leave it up there until it is resolved? In that case, it's 1.40%. I prefer to say it's resolved as a push, so I usually say 1.36%, if forced to one number.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 2nd, 2023 at 2:17:22 PM
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Quote: WizardHere is my video on the Hedgehog.
Seven after the Point loses the DC and the Passline at the same time.
I prefer to start with a DP, with odds, followed by a Come bet. If the seven rolls, I win all three bets on a single roll.
The last time I played at Foxwoods, shooters rolled five Point-Sevens in a row. Followed by another after a hand in between.
June 2nd, 2023 at 2:48:49 PM
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Always fun to see results of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Amusing that even after 11 Billion outcomes the distribution is so lumpy compared to the smooth Gaussian theoretical model.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
June 2nd, 2023 at 2:58:20 PM
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Quote: pwcrabbAlways fun to see results of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Amusing that even after 11 Billion outcomes the distribution is so lumpy compared to the smooth Gaussian theoretical model.
link to original post
That's intrinsic to the rules of craps. I could run a billion hand simulation of blackjack and wouldn't see a smooth curve either, for example many more wins of +1 and -1 than 0.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 2nd, 2023 at 4:11:38 PM
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Is there a theoretical explanation for those enormous indendations in the graph between -16 and -12 and also between -4 and -1 ??
Perhaps a normal distribution is a theoretical non-starter. Perhaps Bright Side and Dark Side distributions are skewed in opposite directions and they are overlaid together in this joint distribution with multiple local maximums.
Perhaps a normal distribution is a theoretical non-starter. Perhaps Bright Side and Dark Side distributions are skewed in opposite directions and they are overlaid together in this joint distribution with multiple local maximums.
Last edited by: pwcrabb on Jun 2, 2023
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
June 3rd, 2023 at 1:22:00 AM
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.
I don't play craps for real - but have been playing on the Wiz's game
I like a modified iron cross - i.e. - $100 on pass - the point comes 4 - then place $100 on 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 - and $50 on the field
if you have a nice run with no 7 - you can easily go up a couple of thou before you 7 out
and of course, you can get crushed real quick too -
it's kinna fun
.
I don't play craps for real - but have been playing on the Wiz's game
I like a modified iron cross - i.e. - $100 on pass - the point comes 4 - then place $100 on 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 - and $50 on the field
if you have a nice run with no 7 - you can easily go up a couple of thou before you 7 out
and of course, you can get crushed real quick too -
it's kinna fun
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 3, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 3rd, 2023 at 9:24:27 AM
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I'd slow this all down with a 5-count before the 2nd bet and subsequent bets. Let some bets resolve before betting counter to them.
As for an actual Iron Cross, I'd bet $150 on the 5,6,8 and $100 on the Field on a Triple pay 12 table (which don't exist near me at all). I haven't had nearly the luck I expect from this play since shooters can hardly shoot more than 8 times.
As for an actual Iron Cross, I'd bet $150 on the 5,6,8 and $100 on the Field on a Triple pay 12 table (which don't exist near me at all). I haven't had nearly the luck I expect from this play since shooters can hardly shoot more than 8 times.
June 15th, 2023 at 6:30:47 AM
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Hi Winzard,
is Version 3 the best version, can you layout the algorithm of this system?
is Version 3 the best version, can you layout the algorithm of this system?
June 20th, 2023 at 12:36:04 AM
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I tried this out last night on a $25 table with $400 buy in and I gotta say I was impressed! Like all systems, it worked till it didn’t but I was surprised how well the system seemed to work its self out no matter what kind of roll that was being had. The exception of course was when I finally ran into a string of “worst possible situations” like back to back craps on the come, yos on the dont, come bets immediately knocking off your don’t and then a 7 the next roll also taking out your DC, etc.
If I play it again I’ll probably want to buy in with $600 or $800 for a $25 table to feel more secure because even though the average loss per shooter is low, sometimes on a long roll you have to go deep and you need the bankroll to keep the system up.
Have you done any risk of ruin calculations?
My other question is, using version 3, I didn’t know what to do if you hit the point… do you go back to Pass, regardless if you were on Come? Or do you go to DP in that situation?
If I play it again I’ll probably want to buy in with $600 or $800 for a $25 table to feel more secure because even though the average loss per shooter is low, sometimes on a long roll you have to go deep and you need the bankroll to keep the system up.
Have you done any risk of ruin calculations?
My other question is, using version 3, I didn’t know what to do if you hit the point… do you go back to Pass, regardless if you were on Come? Or do you go to DP in that situation?
June 20th, 2023 at 5:38:36 AM
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Quote: TheguyoverthereHave you done any risk of ruin calculations?
My other question is, using version 3, I didn’t know what to do if you hit the point… do you go back to Pass, regardless if you were on Come? Or do you go to DP in that situation?
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Thanks for the report.
No, I haven't done any RoR calculations.
If the shooter hits the point and your last bet was a come bet, your next bet would be on the don't pass. The only time you don't alternate is after betting a come and the roll is a seven-out. Of course, you can do whatever you want. It wouldn't change much if you started with a don't pass with very shooter.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 15th, 2024 at 10:25:34 AM
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I have been experimenting with this system and it is working well for me. Thank you posting it!
In recent weeks, I started taking 2x odds, but also trying to balance out money exposed by placing a bet on 7 that pays 4:1 whenever it is time for the Don't Come bet. Basically, I try to keep the come/don't come numbers balanced, and when I am making a Don't Come bet, I also place a bet on 7 for one unit. On the numbers, I take 2x odds.
However, I seem to be losing more using this hedge and I wonder if I am missing something... I do realize that the more I hedge the more I will lose, but this hedge seems to lose a lot and offset variance only a little... Am I doing something wrong?
In recent weeks, I started taking 2x odds, but also trying to balance out money exposed by placing a bet on 7 that pays 4:1 whenever it is time for the Don't Come bet. Basically, I try to keep the come/don't come numbers balanced, and when I am making a Don't Come bet, I also place a bet on 7 for one unit. On the numbers, I take 2x odds.
However, I seem to be losing more using this hedge and I wonder if I am missing something... I do realize that the more I hedge the more I will lose, but this hedge seems to lose a lot and offset variance only a little... Am I doing something wrong?
July 16th, 2024 at 5:30:27 AM
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Quote: NYCAPI have been experimenting with this system and it is working well for me. Thank you posting it!
In recent weeks, I started taking 2x odds, but also trying to balance out money exposed by placing a bet on 7 that pays 4:1 whenever it is time for the Don't Come bet. Basically, I try to keep the come/don't come numbers balanced, and when I am making a Don't Come bet, I also place a bet on 7 for one unit. On the numbers, I take 2x odds.
However, I seem to be losing more using this hedge and I wonder if I am missing something... I do realize that the more I hedge the more I will lose, but this hedge seems to lose a lot and offset variance only a little... Am I doing something wrong?
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I'm not a math guy but in plain english I think this may sum it up for you:
I think the reason you lose more than you would like is simply that the "Any 7" hedge bet($5) is a relatively
huge 20% of a line bet($25). There are times when the 7 appears more often than expected on DP come-outs
and at those times you are winning, at best, 80% of your DP line bets ($20).
But wait: the "any 7" is a bad bet because it only pays 4-1. The casino must love this bet, especially now that
$25 minimums are the norm and you can't bet on the better odds 5-2,4-3,6-1 hops with less than $15 on a
$25 min table.
When the yo shows up, you've lost $30. At times that will also happen more than expected.
Similarly for the "anycraps" hedge bet($5) on the "do" line bets but its not as bad a bet as the "any 7" is for the "donts".
These can really skew the win/loss amounts, especially in the microscopically short time frame of a "live" craps session.
Simulations don't provide a "feel" for the actual variance that can exist within a mere hundred tosses within the millions
of simulated sessions results.
The fact that you're adding a badly paid hedge is more likely to negatively affect your variance.
The "2x" odds are adding additional variance "after" your bad hedge-bets on the DP come-out.
November 11th, 2024 at 3:46:33 PM
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It’s good and I’ve seen similar systems before but i need the volatility in my life since I don’t get to Vegas much . When I’m there I wanna go hard and win big or lose . LoL
