The Hedgehog Betting System

Normally, I am not big on betting systems.

Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.

That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.

Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.

1. You will be making a bet on the pass, don't pass, come or don't come on every roll.
2. Take a count of active pass+come bets less active don't pass and don't come bets.
3. If the count from step 2 is less than or equal to zero, make a pass or come bet. Otherwise make a don't pass or don't come bet.

Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.

Net Win	Count	Probability
-25	3	0.000000
-24	9	0.000000
-23	8	0.000000
-22	16	0.000000
-21	43	0.000000
-20	99	0.000000
-19	242	0.000000
-18	542	0.000001
-17	1,230	0.000001
-16	2,648	0.000003
-15	6,207	0.000006
-14	13,747	0.000014
-13	30,263	0.000031
-12	67,840	0.000070
-11	149,551	0.000154
-10	331,297	0.000341
-9	734,608	0.000756
-8	1,654,083	0.001702
-7	3,764,851	0.003873
-6	8,722,895	0.008974
-5	20,306,935	0.020892
-4	45,152,228	0.046453
-3	83,616,270	0.086025
-2	210,705,556	0.216775
-1	111,946,416	0.115171
0	90,124,053	0.092720
1	141,900,260	0.145988
2	93,713,374	0.096413
3	60,117,182	0.061849
4	38,701,517	0.039816
5	23,968,320	0.024659
6	14,517,057	0.014935
7	8,737,231	0.008989
8	5,232,389	0.005383
9	3,128,644	0.003219
10	1,870,559	0.001924
11	1,117,544	0.001150
12	668,438	0.000688
13	399,534	0.000411
14	238,689	0.000246
15	142,995	0.000147
16	85,904	0.000088
17	51,322	0.000053
18	30,912	0.000032
19	18,730	0.000019
20	11,191	0.000012
21	6,698	0.000007
22	3,927	0.000004
23	2,398	0.000002
24	1,441	0.000001
25	814	0.000001
26	515	0.000001
27	318	0.000000
28	179	0.000000
29	111	0.000000
30	64	0.000000
31	38	0.000000
32	29	0.000000
33	19	0.000000
34	9	0.000000
35	5	0.000000
36	1	0.000000
38	1	0.000000
43	1	0.000000
Total	972,000,000	1.000000

The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.

Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%

Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.

At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.

The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.

Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:

If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:

If the number of active pass & come bets >= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post

The opposite.

If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:

If the number of active pass & come bets >= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post

The opposite.

If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post

Right. I edited my post before seeing your reply.

Question (you would think I would know this by now, but not being much of a come bettor, I don't): are come bets good on a come-out roll?
If so, then I think I can reduce the system further:
1. Start with a pass (or come) bet
2. Alternate between pass / come and don't pass / don't come, except:
(a) If a roll is not a point and not a 7, repeat the previous bet;
(b) If a pass/come bet roll is a 7, all bets are resolved, so start again with another pass/come bet.

Another way to put it:
Start with a pass / come bet
After each roll, if the roll is:
(a) a point number, the next bet is the other way;
(b) a 2, 3, 11, or 12, the next bet is the same way;
(c) a 7, the next bet is Pass / Come

Blasphemy

I have created and used a system for low volatility to help overcome Rollover. I have entertained the idea
of letting you look at it but its valuable to me and I have trust issues. Although they can't overcome the house edge
in the grand scheme of things they can be useful.

Quote: Wizard

Normally, I am not big on betting systems.

Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.

That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.

Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.

1. You will be making a bet on the pass, don't pass, come or don't come on every roll.
2. Take a count of active pass+come bets less active don't pass and don't come bets.
3. If the count from step 2 is less than or equal to zero, make a pass or come bet. Otherwise make a don't pass or don't come bet.

Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.

Net Win	Count	Probability
-25	3	0.000000
-24	9	0.000000
-23	8	0.000000
-22	16	0.000000
-21	43	0.000000
-20	99	0.000000
-19	242	0.000000
-18	542	0.000001
-17	1,230	0.000001
-16	2,648	0.000003
-15	6,207	0.000006
-14	13,747	0.000014
-13	30,263	0.000031
-12	67,840	0.000070
-11	149,551	0.000154
-10	331,297	0.000341
-9	734,608	0.000756
-8	1,654,083	0.001702
-7	3,764,851	0.003873
-6	8,722,895	0.008974
-5	20,306,935	0.020892
-4	45,152,228	0.046453
-3	83,616,270	0.086025
-2	210,705,556	0.216775
-1	111,946,416	0.115171
0	90,124,053	0.092720
1	141,900,260	0.145988
2	93,713,374	0.096413
3	60,117,182	0.061849
4	38,701,517	0.039816
5	23,968,320	0.024659
6	14,517,057	0.014935
7	8,737,231	0.008989
8	5,232,389	0.005383
9	3,128,644	0.003219
10	1,870,559	0.001924
11	1,117,544	0.001150
12	668,438	0.000688
13	399,534	0.000411
14	238,689	0.000246
15	142,995	0.000147
16	85,904	0.000088
17	51,322	0.000053
18	30,912	0.000032
19	18,730	0.000019
20	11,191	0.000012
21	6,698	0.000007
22	3,927	0.000004
23	2,398	0.000002
24	1,441	0.000001
25	814	0.000001
26	515	0.000001
27	318	0.000000
28	179	0.000000
29	111	0.000000
30	64	0.000000
31	38	0.000000
32	29	0.000000
33	19	0.000000
34	9	0.000000
35	5	0.000000
36	1	0.000000
38	1	0.000000
43	1	0.000000
Total	972,000,000	1.000000

The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.

Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%

Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.

At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.

The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.


link to original post

I need royalties for that picture.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question (you would think I would know this by now, but not being much of a come bettor, I don't): are come bets good on a come-out roll?
If so, then I think I can reduce the system further:
1. Start with a pass (or come) bet
2. Alternate between pass / come and don't pass / don't come, except:
(a) If a roll is not a point and not a 7, repeat the previous bet;
(b) If a pass/come bet roll is a 7, all bets are resolved, so start again with another pass/come bet.

Another way to put it:
Start with a pass / come bet
After each roll, if the roll is:
(a) a point number, the next bet is the other way;
(b) a 2, 3, 11, or 12, the next bet is the same way;
(c) a 7, the next bet is Pass / Come
link to original post

I wrote a system to try to answer this, but now see your concept is a bit different.

What I just ran alternated sides after every roll, including a 2, 3, 11 or 12. Here are the results.

Net win	Count	Probability
-34	2	0.000000
-33	4	0.000000
-32	5	0.000000
-31	7	0.000000
-30	25	0.000000
-29	27	0.000000
-28	88	0.000000
-27	97	0.000000
-26	268	0.000000
-25	324	0.000000
-24	971	0.000000
-23	1,226	0.000000
-22	3,630	0.000001
-21	4,119	0.000001
-20	13,352	0.000002
-19	14,305	0.000002
-18	49,148	0.000008
-17	49,025	0.000008
-16	182,507	0.000032
-15	169,557	0.000029
-14	678,568	0.000117
-13	578,048	0.000100
-12	2,511,824	0.000434
-11	1,950,433	0.000337
-10	9,115,196	0.001575
-9	6,402,000	0.001106
-8	32,219,767	0.005569
-7	20,226,860	0.003496
-6	110,170,340	0.019041
-5	60,689,565	0.010489
-4	374,554,107	0.064735
-3	173,543,878	0.029994
-2	1,445,832,836	0.249885
-1	421,661,139	0.072876
0	653,319,059	0.112914
1	1,072,061,195	0.185285
2	279,957,698	0.048385
3	633,193,279	0.109435
4	108,521,779	0.018756
5	224,061,599	0.038725
6	38,722,496	0.006692
7	69,699,699	0.012046
8	12,886,620	0.002227
9	20,101,167	0.003474
10	4,026,313	0.000696
11	5,372,787	0.000929
12	1,183,026	0.000204
13	1,367,086	0.000236
14	333,204	0.000058
15	337,083	0.000058
16	90,836	0.000016
17	82,742	0.000014
18	23,911	0.000004
19	20,087	0.000003
20	6,339	0.000001
21	4,950	0.000001
22	1,635	0.000000
23	1,208	0.000000
24	429	0.000000
25	297	0.000000
26	105	0.000000
27	70	0.000000
28	29	0.000000
29	10	0.000000
30	7	0.000000
31	4	0.000000
32	1	0.000000
33	1	0.000000
34	1	0.000000
Total	5,786,000,000	1.000000

Standard deviation = 2.903.

Let me run it your way next.

Well, I need to get at least 35 units ahead. I guess my Win/Loss goals with the above chart would be (-10, +8).
Pretty sure I can win 10 times ahead on the DP before I won 10X ahead on the PL.

Is this the same as “always coming” except that you do it for both come and DC? Always coming is the final step beyond a six-point-molly.

So you’d keep making come/DC bets (alternating) until (potentially) you have bets on all six points, going both ways. And still with a come or dc bet

Doesn’t this break one of the key rules/commandments ? Betting both sides of the table