Poll

4 votes (36.36%)
1 vote (9.09%)
2 votes (18.18%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (27.27%)
3 votes (27.27%)
2 votes (18.18%)
1 vote (9.09%)
2 votes (18.18%)
2 votes (18.18%)

11 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 10th, 2023 at 4:28:50 PM permalink
Normally, I am not big on betting systems.

Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.

That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.

Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.

  1. You will be making a bet on the pass, don't pass, come or don't come on every roll.
  2. Take a count of active pass+come bets less active don't pass and don't come bets.
  3. If the count from step 2 is less than or equal to zero, make a pass or come bet. Otherwise make a don't pass or don't come bet.


Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.

Net Win Count Probability
-25 3 0.000000
-24 9 0.000000
-23 8 0.000000
-22 16 0.000000
-21 43 0.000000
-20 99 0.000000
-19 242 0.000000
-18 542 0.000001
-17 1,230 0.000001
-16 2,648 0.000003
-15 6,207 0.000006
-14 13,747 0.000014
-13 30,263 0.000031
-12 67,840 0.000070
-11 149,551 0.000154
-10 331,297 0.000341
-9 734,608 0.000756
-8 1,654,083 0.001702
-7 3,764,851 0.003873
-6 8,722,895 0.008974
-5 20,306,935 0.020892
-4 45,152,228 0.046453
-3 83,616,270 0.086025
-2 210,705,556 0.216775
-1 111,946,416 0.115171
0 90,124,053 0.092720
1 141,900,260 0.145988
2 93,713,374 0.096413
3 60,117,182 0.061849
4 38,701,517 0.039816
5 23,968,320 0.024659
6 14,517,057 0.014935
7 8,737,231 0.008989
8 5,232,389 0.005383
9 3,128,644 0.003219
10 1,870,559 0.001924
11 1,117,544 0.001150
12 668,438 0.000688
13 399,534 0.000411
14 238,689 0.000246
15 142,995 0.000147
16 85,904 0.000088
17 51,322 0.000053
18 30,912 0.000032
19 18,730 0.000019
20 11,191 0.000012
21 6,698 0.000007
22 3,927 0.000004
23 2,398 0.000002
24 1,441 0.000001
25 814 0.000001
26 515 0.000001
27 318 0.000000
28 179 0.000000
29 111 0.000000
30 64 0.000000
31 38 0.000000
32 29 0.000000
33 19 0.000000
34 9 0.000000
35 5 0.000000
36 1 0.000000
38 1 0.000000
43 1 0.000000
Total 972,000,000 1.000000


The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.

Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%

Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.

At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.

The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.

Last edited by: Wizard on May 10, 2023
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 6171
May 10th, 2023 at 4:47:02 PM permalink
Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:

If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 10th, 2023 at 4:48:49 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:

If the number of active pass & come bets >= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post



The opposite.

If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 6171
May 10th, 2023 at 4:50:12 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Let me see if I have this right - the quick version is this:

If the number of active pass & come bets >= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post



The opposite.

If the number of active pass & come bets <= the number of active don't pass and don't come bets, bet pass / come;
otherwise, bet don't pass / don't come.
link to original post


Right. I edited my post before seeing your reply.

Question (you would think I would know this by now, but not being much of a come bettor, I don't): are come bets good on a come-out roll?
If so, then I think I can reduce the system further:
1. Start with a pass (or come) bet
2. Alternate between pass / come and don't pass / don't come, except:
(a) If a roll is not a point and not a 7, repeat the previous bet;
(b) If a pass/come bet roll is a 7, all bets are resolved, so start again with another pass/come bet.

Another way to put it:
Start with a pass / come bet
After each roll, if the roll is:
(a) a point number, the next bet is the other way;
(b) a 2, 3, 11, or 12, the next bet is the same way;
(c) a 7, the next bet is Pass / Come
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on May 10, 2023
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1852
May 10th, 2023 at 5:21:23 PM permalink
Blasphemy
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1852
May 10th, 2023 at 6:39:29 PM permalink
I have created and used a system for low volatility to help overcome Rollover. I have entertained the idea
of letting you look at it but its valuable to me and I have trust issues. Although they can't overcome the house edge
in the grand scheme of things they can be useful.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22246
May 10th, 2023 at 7:06:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Normally, I am not big on betting systems.

Let me preface this post by saying, for about the millionth time, that not only can't betting systems beat the houses edge, they can't even dent it.

That said, what I have covered on betting systems seems to be well received. In that light, I present to you the first betting system I've created myself. It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.

Here is how it works. All bets are one unit. It is optional to back up line bets with odds. Note that many casinos don't rate on odds bets. The goal is to balance active bets for and against all points.

  1. You will be making a bet on the pass, don't pass, come or don't come on every roll.
  2. Take a count of active pass+come bets less active don't pass and don't come bets.
  3. If the count from step 2 is less than or equal to zero, make a pass or come bet. Otherwise make a don't pass or don't come bet.


Here are some statistics, based on a simulation of 972 million shooters. The "net win" is the overall win per shooter. All statistics assume no odds bets.

Net Win Count Probability
-25 3 0.000000
-24 9 0.000000
-23 8 0.000000
-22 16 0.000000
-21 43 0.000000
-20 99 0.000000
-19 242 0.000000
-18 542 0.000001
-17 1,230 0.000001
-16 2,648 0.000003
-15 6,207 0.000006
-14 13,747 0.000014
-13 30,263 0.000031
-12 67,840 0.000070
-11 149,551 0.000154
-10 331,297 0.000341
-9 734,608 0.000756
-8 1,654,083 0.001702
-7 3,764,851 0.003873
-6 8,722,895 0.008974
-5 20,306,935 0.020892
-4 45,152,228 0.046453
-3 83,616,270 0.086025
-2 210,705,556 0.216775
-1 111,946,416 0.115171
0 90,124,053 0.092720
1 141,900,260 0.145988
2 93,713,374 0.096413
3 60,117,182 0.061849
4 38,701,517 0.039816
5 23,968,320 0.024659
6 14,517,057 0.014935
7 8,737,231 0.008989
8 5,232,389 0.005383
9 3,128,644 0.003219
10 1,870,559 0.001924
11 1,117,544 0.001150
12 668,438 0.000688
13 399,534 0.000411
14 238,689 0.000246
15 142,995 0.000147
16 85,904 0.000088
17 51,322 0.000053
18 30,912 0.000032
19 18,730 0.000019
20 11,191 0.000012
21 6,698 0.000007
22 3,927 0.000004
23 2,398 0.000002
24 1,441 0.000001
25 814 0.000001
26 515 0.000001
27 318 0.000000
28 179 0.000000
29 111 0.000000
30 64 0.000000
31 38 0.000000
32 29 0.000000
33 19 0.000000
34 9 0.000000
35 5 0.000000
36 1 0.000000
38 1 0.000000
43 1 0.000000
Total 972,000,000 1.000000


The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.

Here are some probabilities per shooter:
Net win = 40.60%
Tie = 9.27%
Net loss = 50.12%

Yes, the majority of shooters will have a net loss, but the losses are moderate and the wins are bigger. In other words, the average win is greater than the average loss.

At this point, I open it up to questions and comments.

The question for the poll is what do you think of the Hedgehog? Multiple votes allowed.


link to original post

I need royalties for that picture.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 10th, 2023 at 8:25:36 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


Question (you would think I would know this by now, but not being much of a come bettor, I don't): are come bets good on a come-out roll?
If so, then I think I can reduce the system further:
1. Start with a pass (or come) bet
2. Alternate between pass / come and don't pass / don't come, except:
(a) If a roll is not a point and not a 7, repeat the previous bet;
(b) If a pass/come bet roll is a 7, all bets are resolved, so start again with another pass/come bet.

Another way to put it:
Start with a pass / come bet
After each roll, if the roll is:
(a) a point number, the next bet is the other way;
(b) a 2, 3, 11, or 12, the next bet is the same way;
(c) a 7, the next bet is Pass / Come
link to original post



I wrote a system to try to answer this, but now see your concept is a bit different.

What I just ran alternated sides after every roll, including a 2, 3, 11 or 12. Here are the results.

Net win Count Probability
-34 2 0.000000
-33 4 0.000000
-32 5 0.000000
-31 7 0.000000
-30 25 0.000000
-29 27 0.000000
-28 88 0.000000
-27 97 0.000000
-26 268 0.000000
-25 324 0.000000
-24 971 0.000000
-23 1,226 0.000000
-22 3,630 0.000001
-21 4,119 0.000001
-20 13,352 0.000002
-19 14,305 0.000002
-18 49,148 0.000008
-17 49,025 0.000008
-16 182,507 0.000032
-15 169,557 0.000029
-14 678,568 0.000117
-13 578,048 0.000100
-12 2,511,824 0.000434
-11 1,950,433 0.000337
-10 9,115,196 0.001575
-9 6,402,000 0.001106
-8 32,219,767 0.005569
-7 20,226,860 0.003496
-6 110,170,340 0.019041
-5 60,689,565 0.010489
-4 374,554,107 0.064735
-3 173,543,878 0.029994
-2 1,445,832,836 0.249885
-1 421,661,139 0.072876
0 653,319,059 0.112914
1 1,072,061,195 0.185285
2 279,957,698 0.048385
3 633,193,279 0.109435
4 108,521,779 0.018756
5 224,061,599 0.038725
6 38,722,496 0.006692
7 69,699,699 0.012046
8 12,886,620 0.002227
9 20,101,167 0.003474
10 4,026,313 0.000696
11 5,372,787 0.000929
12 1,183,026 0.000204
13 1,367,086 0.000236
14 333,204 0.000058
15 337,083 0.000058
16 90,836 0.000016
17 82,742 0.000014
18 23,911 0.000004
19 20,087 0.000003
20 6,339 0.000001
21 4,950 0.000001
22 1,635 0.000000
23 1,208 0.000000
24 429 0.000000
25 297 0.000000
26 105 0.000000
27 70 0.000000
28 29 0.000000
29 10 0.000000
30 7 0.000000
31 4 0.000000
32 1 0.000000
33 1 0.000000
34 1 0.000000
Total 5,786,000,000 1.000000


Standard deviation = 2.903.

Let me run it your way next.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 4670
May 10th, 2023 at 9:26:18 PM permalink
Well, I need to get at least 35 units ahead. I guess my Win/Loss goals with the above chart would be (-10, +8).
Pretty sure I can win 10 times ahead on the DP before I won 10X ahead on the PL.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2672
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
May 10th, 2023 at 9:30:13 PM permalink
Is this the same as “always coming” except that you do it for both come and DC? Always coming is the final step beyond a six-point-molly.

So you’d keep making come/DC bets (alternating) until (potentially) you have bets on all six points, going both ways. And still with a come or dc bet

Doesn’t this break one of the key rules/commandments ? Betting both sides of the table
It’s all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6481
May 11th, 2023 at 2:39:51 AM permalink
.

re the blue table of statistics - I don't understand why the numbers and probabilities of a net win are greater than those of a net loss for each number

for example - why would you have 111 million plus net losses of 1 with a probability of 0.115171

and 141 million plus net wins of 1 with a probability of 0.145988

thanks for the explanation

.
Please don't feed the trolls
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9524
May 11th, 2023 at 5:39:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It is meant for craps with the goal of low volatility. The player who might use this would be one trying to play for a good rating at minimal cost and variance.

I played for a bit in the free game just to get the feel of it. I would agree it is not for regular Craps play where a player wants to take a ride on the variance train.
Quote:

The standard deviation per shooter is 2.89 units. Keep in mind there are 8.53 rolls per shooter, on average. That makes the ratio of the standard deviation to amount bet, per shooter, a very low 0.34.

link to original post

is 0.34 the SD per bet, versus the standard deviation of "about one" for playing the pass line with no odds?

Well, I never have played for ratings. I get very irritated with high table minimums, so I might use this to be at the table when a friend wants to play but I don't like that minimum.

I added up the outcome probabilities for winning 5 units or losing 5 units [plus the in-between outcomes] and I get 0.946761, or 1 in 1.05623... almost even chances... that you will be up, or down, 5 units or less. At a $25 table, which irks me, that's up or down $125. I think I did that right.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 11th, 2023 at 3:45:28 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Is this the same as “always coming” except that you do it for both come and DC?
link to original post



Yes. You always make a line bet. If you already cover all six points, either for or against, you keep going. The next bet will replace one you win or lose if you throw another point.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 11th, 2023 at 3:47:04 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

re the blue table of statistics - I don't understand why the numbers and probabilities of a net win are greater than those of a net loss for each number

for example - why would you have 111 million plus net losses of 1 with a probability of 0.115171

and 141 million plus net wins of 1 with a probability of 0.145988

thanks for the explanation

.
link to original post



Those probabilities are based on the 972,000,000 shooters in the simulation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
May 11th, 2023 at 3:49:20 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit


I added up the outcome probabilities for winning 5 units or losing 5 units [plus the in-between outcomes] and I get 0.946761, or 1 in 1.05623... almost even chances... that you will be up, or down, 5 units or less. At a $25 table, which irks me, that's up or down $125. I think I did that right.
link to original post



Yes, you did that right, a 94.68% chance of winning or losing five or less units.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 11th, 2023 at 3:52:23 PM permalink
I did a "version 3" of the Hedgehog, where the player alternates sides every throw. No more counting which side has a deficit. Here are the results.

Net Win Count Probability
-43 1 0.000000
-37 3 0.000000
-36 10 0.000000
-35 14 0.000000
-34 26 0.000000
-33 45 0.000000
-32 84 0.000000
-31 150 0.000000
-30 261 0.000000
-29 484 0.000000
-28 801 0.000000
-27 1,428 0.000000
-26 2,558 0.000000
-25 4,603 0.000000
-24 8,000 0.000000
-23 14,002 0.000000
-22 24,639 0.000001
-21 43,121 0.000001
-20 75,225 0.000002
-19 133,387 0.000003
-18 235,323 0.000006
-17 417,184 0.000010
-16 748,030 0.000018
-15 1,356,993 0.000033
-14 2,489,691 0.000061
-13 4,639,129 0.000113
-12 8,798,380 0.000215
-11 16,986,230 0.000415
-10 33,095,270 0.000809
-9 63,940,655 0.001563
-8 122,333,490 0.002991
-7 230,427,295 0.005633
-6 446,713,689 0.010921
-5 818,983,030 0.020022
-4 1,701,332,926 0.041593
-3 2,913,134,258 0.071219
-2 8,679,178,778 0.212184
-1 4,919,388,623 0.120267
0 4,436,029,918 0.108450
1 6,245,052,375 0.152676
2 3,593,149,360 0.087843
3 2,525,579,132 0.061744
4 1,572,668,551 0.038448
5 1,050,422,363 0.025680
6 631,648,949 0.015442
7 379,235,411 0.009271
8 219,823,092 0.005374
9 126,619,555 0.003096
10 71,545,387 0.001749
11 39,659,125 0.000970
12 21,728,568 0.000531
13 11,884,019 0.000291
14 6,513,521 0.000159
15 3,571,597 0.000087
16 1,960,385 0.000048
17 1,079,105 0.000026
18 592,173 0.000014
19 327,781 0.000008
20 180,719 0.000004
21 99,176 0.000002
22 54,880 0.000001
23 30,056 0.000001
24 16,611 0.000000
25 9,103 0.000000
26 5,098 0.000000
27 2,755 0.000000
28 1,547 0.000000
29 875 0.000000
30 442 0.000000
31 230 0.000000
32 135 0.000000
33 82 0.000000
34 47 0.000000
35 27 0.000000
36 14 0.000000
37 9 0.000000
38 6 0.000000
39 2 0.000000
40 1 0.000000
41 1 0.000000
45 1 0.000000
Total 40,904,000,000 1.000000


The standard deviation per shooter is 2.895671. This is 0.007855 greater than the original version. I think I'll go with this "version 3" when I properly write this up. It's easier to explain, for one thing.

Next, I think I'll see how betting/laying the odds affects things.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2672
May 11th, 2023 at 4:01:06 PM permalink
I sort of like this betting style.

However, it could be hard to keep track of your bets, especially after a few drinks. Backing several numbers and also laying a couple
It’s all about making that GTA
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 185
May 11th, 2023 at 4:24:18 PM permalink
Hedgehog strategy looks very similar to "Wait for the Wife" strategy on another thread. 972 million shooters or outcomes of only Pass, Come, DP, or DC. No Odds either Taken or Laid. Negligible variance. Minimal expected loss. Hedgehog specifies an approximate Bright/Dark balancing while Wait permits whimsical bet selection. Indistinguishable net results.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 4670
May 11th, 2023 at 5:31:19 PM permalink
I get confused and just bet the PL on the come-out after a 7-out or after a point is made or until the point is established. Then I start alternating DC & Come. But this strategy seems like a lot of pointless redundancy that's gonna run up the house edge before I ever get far ahead.
If I was gonna add odds to it, it'd probably be triple odds on either side so the DC bets can be divided by 6, ie. a $10 bet with $30 odds, or 10X that if you wanna go broke faster.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on May 11, 2023
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2672
May 11th, 2023 at 6:10:50 PM permalink
I previously simulated the always coming betting style on a per roll basis. The standard deviation is 2.61. So if you’re going to play 900 rolls, for instance, you will have made 900 bets with an expectation of -12.7 units +/- 78.3.

Can someone please simulate the hedgehog style on a per roll basis. The volume and expectation should be the same but the SD should be lower only because there will often be a netting effect when a seven out happens.
It’s all about making that GTA
SkittleCar1
SkittleCar1
Joined: Feb 7, 2014
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 251
Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
May 12th, 2023 at 5:26:37 AM permalink
I tried this on Crapsee. I would start with a Don't Pass. Then Come. As long as you avoid a 7 on the Come Out, you're in good shape for a Point-7-Out. Then alternate Don't Come and Come. I was using the Bubble Craps version with $5 and using 2x odds. After 100 rolls, I was down about 80 cents. Was up as high as $85 at one point.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 12th, 2023 at 6:59:56 AM permalink
Here are the results of version 3 of the Hedgehog (alternating the do and don't sides, starting with do), with 3-4-5-x odds.

Net win Count Probability
-176 1 0.000000
-169 1 0.000000
-164 1 0.000000
-158 2 0.000000
-157 2 0.000000
-155 1 0.000000
-154 2 0.000000
-153 2 0.000000
-152 2 0.000000
-151 3 0.000000
-150 4 0.000000
-149 5 0.000000
-148 1 0.000000
-147 4 0.000000
-146 6 0.000000
-145 6 0.000000
-144 3 0.000000
-143 8 0.000000
-142 1 0.000000
-141 7 0.000000
-140 5 0.000000
-139 12 0.000000
-138 13 0.000000
-137 12 0.000000
-136 11 0.000000
-135 24 0.000000
-134 11 0.000000
-133 29 0.000000
-132 31 0.000000
-131 26 0.000000
-130 34 0.000000
-129 46 0.000000
-128 38 0.000000
-127 54 0.000000
-126 39 0.000000
-125 46 0.000000
-124 61 0.000000
-123 73 0.000000
-122 99 0.000000
-121 102 0.000000
-120 117 0.000000
-119 127 0.000000
-118 162 0.000000
-117 166 0.000000
-116 185 0.000000
-115 214 0.000000
-114 213 0.000000
-113 244 0.000000
-112 272 0.000000
-111 332 0.000000
-110 414 0.000000
-109 454 0.000000
-108 489 0.000000
-107 598 0.000000
-106 740 0.000000
-105 754 0.000000
-104 836 0.000000
-103 833 0.000000
-102 1,009 0.000000
-101 1,088 0.000000
-100 1,186 0.000000
-99 1,397 0.000000
-98 1,598 0.000000
-97 2,021 0.000000
-96 2,461 0.000000
-95 2,851 0.000000
-94 3,206 0.000000
-93 3,577 0.000000
-92 3,899 0.000000
-91 4,140 0.000000
-90 4,321 0.000000
-89 4,680 0.000000
-88 5,126 0.000000
-87 5,783 0.000001
-86 6,934 0.000001
-85 8,323 0.000001
-84 10,170 0.000001
-83 12,034 0.000001
-82 14,144 0.000001
-81 15,509 0.000001
-80 16,571 0.000001
-79 17,662 0.000002
-78 18,513 0.000002
-77 19,386 0.000002
-76 20,968 0.000002
-75 24,011 0.000002
-74 27,797 0.000002
-73 34,644 0.000003
-72 42,978 0.000004
-71 55,362 0.000005
-70 70,628 0.000006
-69 94,181 0.000008
-68 126,929 0.000011
-67 166,274 0.000015
-66 186,390 0.000016
-65 166,679 0.000015
-64 134,740 0.000012
-63 116,544 0.000010
-62 116,743 0.000010
-61 132,260 0.000012
-60 160,920 0.000014
-59 204,649 0.000018
-58 274,622 0.000024
-57 394,905 0.000035
-56 579,698 0.000051
-55 768,326 0.000067
-54 782,485 0.000068
-53 673,599 0.000059
-52 561,053 0.000049
-51 555,337 0.000049
-50 674,727 0.000059
-49 888,885 0.000078
-48 1,170,050 0.000102
-47 1,625,638 0.000142
-46 2,384,061 0.000208
-45 3,637,395 0.000318
-44 5,162,440 0.000451
-43 6,148,720 0.000538
-42 6,295,751 0.000550
-41 5,553,383 0.000486
-40 4,667,047 0.000408
-39 3,761,362 0.000329
-38 3,448,795 0.000302
-37 3,789,844 0.000331
-36 4,640,657 0.000406
-35 6,051,742 0.000529
-34 9,097,224 0.000795
-33 14,342,263 0.001254
-32 21,544,898 0.001884
-31 26,830,383 0.002346
-30 27,285,455 0.002386
-29 24,321,453 0.002126
-28 19,251,124 0.001683
-27 15,836,757 0.001385
-26 16,571,320 0.001449
-25 20,453,612 0.001788
-24 25,297,856 0.002212
-23 32,707,213 0.002860
-22 44,189,537 0.003863
-21 66,870,867 0.005846
-20 105,099,071 0.009189
-19 143,324,289 0.012531
-18 149,289,878 0.013052
-17 124,316,203 0.010869
-16 86,170,294 0.007534
-15 62,000,317 0.005421
-14 61,644,435 0.005389
-13 79,013,862 0.006908
-12 97,745,180 0.008546
-11 119,436,785 0.010442
-10 137,891,100 0.012056
-9 189,200,797 0.016541
-8 356,106,944 0.031134
-7 973,250,031 0.085089
-6 1,048,544,525 0.091672
-5 838,466,276 0.073305
-4 381,861,182 0.033385
-3 194,327,514 0.016990
-2 177,116,245 0.015485
-1 323,587,345 0.028291
0 504,371,262 0.044096
1 543,369,362 0.047506
2 549,560,581 0.048047
3 406,249,283 0.035518
4 261,980,037 0.022904
5 224,449,549 0.019623
6 218,569,645 0.019109
7 205,268,349 0.017946
8 165,164,178 0.014440
9 125,021,325 0.010930
10 114,430,250 0.010004
11 137,365,793 0.012010
12 169,575,436 0.014826
13 188,665,020 0.016495
14 176,959,437 0.015471
15 155,571,610 0.013601
16 121,696,503 0.010640
17 94,776,016 0.008286
18 77,785,974 0.006801
19 65,588,509 0.005734
20 55,928,052 0.004890
21 48,949,772 0.004280
22 47,918,256 0.004189
23 55,225,508 0.004828
24 66,149,863 0.005783
25 73,590,012 0.006434
26 72,281,356 0.006319
27 63,501,784 0.005552
28 49,674,206 0.004343
29 37,078,988 0.003242
30 28,446,927 0.002487
31 22,377,642 0.001956
32 18,409,705 0.001610
33 15,459,591 0.001352
34 14,461,830 0.001264
35 15,632,017 0.001367
36 17,615,611 0.001540
37 18,698,068 0.001635
38 18,784,149 0.001642
39 16,485,635 0.001441
40 12,860,868 0.001124
41 9,433,877 0.000825
42 6,947,944 0.000607
43 5,472,074 0.000478
44 4,564,949 0.000399
45 4,159,568 0.000364
46 4,260,289 0.000372
47 4,718,517 0.000413
48 5,165,337 0.000452
49 5,521,081 0.000483
50 5,423,010 0.000474
51 4,811,135 0.000421
52 3,768,581 0.000329
53 2,774,400 0.000243
54 2,045,932 0.000179
55 1,539,327 0.000135
56 1,197,072 0.000105
57 956,224 0.000084
58 820,286 0.000072
59 794,384 0.000069
60 855,163 0.000075
61 921,300 0.000081
62 910,208 0.000080
63 790,550 0.000069
64 642,521 0.000056
65 512,819 0.000045
66 405,136 0.000035
67 321,312 0.000028
68 258,078 0.000023
69 218,640 0.000019
70 201,953 0.000018
71 206,712 0.000018
72 223,207 0.000020
73 231,300 0.000020
74 214,372 0.000019
75 182,383 0.000016
76 150,563 0.000013
77 123,676 0.000011
78 98,694 0.000009
79 78,582 0.000007
80 62,987 0.000006
81 51,302 0.000004
82 44,018 0.000004
83 39,497 0.000003
84 37,288 0.000003
85 36,215 0.000003
86 35,515 0.000003
87 33,968 0.000003
88 30,896 0.000003
89 26,869 0.000002
90 22,723 0.000002
91 18,799 0.000002
92 15,300 0.000001
93 12,333 0.000001
94 10,445 0.000001
95 9,186 0.000001
96 8,461 0.000001
97 8,234 0.000001
98 7,671 0.000001
99 7,468 0.000001
100 6,779 0.000001
101 5,826 0.000001
102 5,106 0.000000
103 4,328 0.000000
104 3,505 0.000000
105 2,843 0.000000
106 2,390 0.000000
107 2,063 0.000000
108 1,802 0.000000
109 1,742 0.000000
110 1,604 0.000000
111 1,564 0.000000
112 1,454 0.000000
113 1,278 0.000000
114 1,103 0.000000
115 878 0.000000
116 820 0.000000
117 685 0.000000
118 581 0.000000
119 463 0.000000
120 400 0.000000
121 377 0.000000
122 374 0.000000
123 347 0.000000
124 268 0.000000
125 261 0.000000
126 239 0.000000
127 220 0.000000
128 157 0.000000
129 149 0.000000
130 149 0.000000
131 106 0.000000
132 83 0.000000
133 96 0.000000
134 67 0.000000
135 66 0.000000
136 69 0.000000
137 41 0.000000
138 39 0.000000
139 55 0.000000
140 38 0.000000
141 35 0.000000
142 24 0.000000
143 29 0.000000
144 13 0.000000
145 20 0.000000
146 13 0.000000
147 12 0.000000
148 8 0.000000
149 12 0.000000
150 11 0.000000
151 8 0.000000
152 10 0.000000
153 14 0.000000
154 6 0.000000
155 8 0.000000
156 8 0.000000
157 6 0.000000
158 4 0.000000
159 2 0.000000
160 6 0.000000
161 4 0.000000
162 1 0.000000
163 1 0.000000
164 2 0.000000
166 2 0.000000
167 3 0.000000
169 1 0.000000
170 2 0.000000
172 2 0.000000
173 2 0.000000
174 1 0.000000
175 1 0.000000
181 1 0.000000
189 1 0.000000
197 1 0.000000
Total 11,438,000,000 1.000000


variance per shooter = 167.66
std dev per shooter = 12.95
House edge = 0.35%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 4670
May 12th, 2023 at 7:12:24 AM permalink
I might buy-in for 20 units and try to win 15 units. But I guess that chart is for per shooter, so I'm likely woefully underfunded. Maybe buy-in for 300 units and try to win 225 units.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 12th, 2023 at 7:28:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Can someone please simulate the hedgehog style on a per roll basis. The volume and expectation should be the same but the SD should be lower only because there will often be a netting effect when a seven out happens.
link to original post



I was thinking about this too. It seems statistically unkosher to me throw out such a statistic, because there can be multiple overlapping bets. However, if forced, couldn't one divide the per shooter standard deviation by sqrt(8.5255)? The average rolls per shooter is 8.5255.

I could get a direct per roll standard deviation, but it would betray the fact that the player can expect to alternate wins and losses using this system, more or less.

Consider a game where you won a unit and lost a unit alternating back and forth. What would be the standard deviation of 1,000,000 bets? I say 0, but a per roll simulation would say 1,000.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 4670
May 12th, 2023 at 7:37:00 AM permalink
Wouldn't that reduce the standard deviation by 65.75%? That's nearly 2/3rds of the bets overlapping and adding onto the house edge.
How is your hedgehog chart different than a straight Do side run?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 12th, 2023 at 12:18:25 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Wouldn't that reduce the standard deviation by 65.75%? That's nearly 2/3rds of the bets overlapping and adding onto the house edge.
How is your hedgehog chart different than a straight Do side run?
link to original post



You're absolutely right, there is a lot of bet overlapping. One of my Ten Commandments of Gambling is "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." That is exactly what this system is doing.

To that, I would say that sometimes commandments are meant to be broken. A reason for using the Hedgehog would be the casino overrates and overcomps craps players who make only line bets. I have known plenty of advantage players over the years who gave straight up play in low house edge games and craps was one of the most popular.

As to your question, do you mean a player who bets the pass or come on every bet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
May 12th, 2023 at 12:36:28 PM permalink
Just as a point of clarification, my table for version 3 with the odds had all odds bets working, both ways (do and don't) on a come out roll.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
June 1st, 2023 at 2:17:18 PM permalink
Here is my video on the Hedgehog.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6481
June 2nd, 2023 at 3:19:47 AM permalink
.

Mr. Wiz -


in your blog on craps (linked) you state that the house edge on Don't Pass is 1.36 per bet made and 1.40% on bet resolved

I don't quite understand that

I never before heard of this difference in Don't Pass

and I also noticed in the same blog that the house edge is the same - 1.41% for betting Pass on either per bet made or resolved

if the house edge differs in bet made and bet resolved for Don't Pass why wouldn't it differ when betting Pass____?

you also state that there is a much lower house edge per roll on both Pass and Don't Pass

I don't understand this either

please explain - thanks


https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 2, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
June 2nd, 2023 at 11:32:02 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

Mr. Wiz -


in your blog on craps (linked) you state that the house edge on Don't Pass is 1.36 per bet made and 1.40% on bet resolved

.
link to original post



It depends on how you treat a total of 12 on the come out roll of the don't pass. Did it resolve the bet with a push, in which case it's 1.36%. Or do you leave it up there until it is resolved? In that case, it's 1.40%. I prefer to say it's resolved as a push, so I usually say 1.36%, if forced to one number.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1190
June 2nd, 2023 at 2:17:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is my video on the Hedgehog.



Seven after the Point loses the DC and the Passline at the same time.

I prefer to start with a DP, with odds, followed by a Come bet. If the seven rolls, I win all three bets on a single roll.

The last time I played at Foxwoods, shooters rolled five Point-Sevens in a row. Followed by another after a hand in between.
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 185
June 2nd, 2023 at 2:48:49 PM permalink
Always fun to see results of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Amusing that even after 11 Billion outcomes the distribution is so lumpy compared to the smooth Gaussian theoretical model.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
Thanks for this post from:
pwcrabb
June 2nd, 2023 at 2:58:20 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Always fun to see results of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Amusing that even after 11 Billion outcomes the distribution is so lumpy compared to the smooth Gaussian theoretical model.
link to original post



That's intrinsic to the rules of craps. I could run a billion hand simulation of blackjack and wouldn't see a smooth curve either, for example many more wins of +1 and -1 than 0.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 185
June 2nd, 2023 at 4:11:38 PM permalink
Is there a theoretical explanation for those enormous indendations in the graph between -16 and -12 and also between -4 and -1 ??

Perhaps a normal distribution is a theoretical non-starter. Perhaps Bright Side and Dark Side distributions are skewed in opposite directions and they are overlaid together in this joint distribution with multiple local maximums.
Last edited by: pwcrabb on Jun 2, 2023
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6481
June 3rd, 2023 at 1:22:00 AM permalink
.
I don't play craps for real - but have been playing on the Wiz's game

I like a modified iron cross - i.e. - $100 on pass - the point comes 4 - then place $100 on 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 - and $50 on the field

if you have a nice run with no 7 - you can easily go up a couple of thou before you 7 out

and of course, you can get crushed real quick too -

it's kinna fun

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 3, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 4670
June 3rd, 2023 at 9:24:27 AM permalink
I'd slow this all down with a 5-count before the 2nd bet and subsequent bets. Let some bets resolve before betting counter to them.

As for an actual Iron Cross, I'd bet $150 on the 5,6,8 and $100 on the Field on a Triple pay 12 table (which don't exist near me at all). I haven't had nearly the luck I expect from this play since shooters can hardly shoot more than 8 times.
mrkent
mrkent
Joined: May 8, 2023
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 4
June 15th, 2023 at 6:30:47 AM permalink
Hi Winzard,

is Version 3 the best version, can you layout the algorithm of this system?
Theguyoverthere
Theguyoverthere
Joined: Sep 4, 2011
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 31
June 20th, 2023 at 12:36:04 AM permalink
I tried this out last night on a $25 table with $400 buy in and I gotta say I was impressed! Like all systems, it worked till it didn’t but I was surprised how well the system seemed to work its self out no matter what kind of roll that was being had. The exception of course was when I finally ran into a string of “worst possible situations” like back to back craps on the come, yos on the dont, come bets immediately knocking off your don’t and then a 7 the next roll also taking out your DC, etc.

If I play it again I’ll probably want to buy in with $600 or $800 for a $25 table to feel more secure because even though the average loss per shooter is low, sometimes on a long roll you have to go deep and you need the bankroll to keep the system up.

Have you done any risk of ruin calculations?
My other question is, using version 3, I didn’t know what to do if you hit the point… do you go back to Pass, regardless if you were on Come? Or do you go to DP in that situation?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26336
June 20th, 2023 at 5:38:36 AM permalink
Quote: Theguyoverthere

Have you done any risk of ruin calculations?
My other question is, using version 3, I didn’t know what to do if you hit the point… do you go back to Pass, regardless if you were on Come? Or do you go to DP in that situation?
link to original post



Thanks for the report.

No, I haven't done any RoR calculations.

If the shooter hits the point and your last bet was a come bet, your next bet would be on the don't pass. The only time you don't alternate is after betting a come and the roll is a seven-out. Of course, you can do whatever you want. It wouldn't change much if you started with a don't pass with very shooter.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

  • Jump to: