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tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 13th, 2022 at 2:52:26 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I answered this question head on and in simple terms in the other thread it was brought up in. Don’t recall you responding, but if you want to then please do in that thread.
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Thank you Mr. unJon. Mr. Ace2 answered below quite adequately, and I shall read, digest, and respond or question at a later time. I have dinner on the table.

tuttigym
AlanMendelson
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DJTeddyBear
January 13th, 2022 at 3:41:37 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: Vegasrider

You would think someone could have created a mechanical device that would be able to toss the dice with the same amount of pressure and velocity and trajectory after setting the dice in a certain position to verify if this is even possible.
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They did built a machine to throw the dice perfectly every time. It could not influence the dice to any statistically significant degree. See attached link

https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1415&context=grrj

But that is not going to stop believers from believing. Nothing will
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I'd like to see the video.

Rolling the dice is not the same as catapulting them. That machine looks like a catapult.

Junk in = junk out.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
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unJon
January 13th, 2022 at 5:45:14 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


I'd like to see the video.

Rolling the dice is not the same as catapulting them. That machine looks like a catapult.

Junk in = junk out.
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I'm not impressed either. I've both reviewed and written peer-reviewed papers and this one is mediocre at best. The machine may have some superficial resemblance to how human arms work but it's very limited (e.g., only 3 settings for the speed of the toss). All they have really proved is that THEIR GIZMO failed the DI test.

To be honest, this "all mechanical" approach seems outdated and behind the times. If I had funding and a bunch of grad students to do most of the work I would:
  1. build a digital twin (i.e., interactive simulation) of a craps table
  2. use one or more robot arms coupled with hi-res motion sensors to verify that the physics of the twin match that of the real table in terms of stiffness, bounce, etc.
  3. hook the twin up to a machine learning algorithm to figure out what the optimal throw is
  4. then use the digital model to calculate the effect of any variability in the throw (e.g., being a1/8" to left of the perfect point on impact)

At that point we've finally got enough data to determine how good somebody has to be to turn craps into a +EV game.

Not that I would expect any rersults to change anybody's mind. I just think it would be a fun study to do and i wouldn't mind getting paid to do it :)
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
cowboy
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January 13th, 2022 at 6:57:26 PM permalink
Well, truly, if the dice stay parallel to the table for the duration of the throw, then nobody has ever seen a DI.
Ace2
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January 13th, 2022 at 7:23:56 PM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones



Not that I would expect any rersults to change anybody's mind. I just think it would be a fun study to do and i wouldn't mind getting paid to do it :)

Results would absolutely change my mind…results are the ONLY thing that would change my mind. But, to my knowledge, no one has ever been able to demonstrate they can throw less than 1/6th sevens over the long term
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jan 14, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
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January 13th, 2022 at 9:26:58 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: AlanMendelson

I have seen it work... but with fewer than 5 shooters. That's five in my lifetime.
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Describe one session with a "successful" DI that you have witnessed, i.e., the number of hands played and the number of rolls/hand and the number of point conversions within those hands. How many sessions with that DI did you witness? Did the "successful" DI 7 out at any time on a "short" hand? How long was he or she at the table, and was the shooter playing with green and black chips?

tuttigym
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I played with a cardiac surgeon many times at Caesars. On two other occasions I played with different DIs once.

What you are asking for is some statistic that shows these shooters win more than random shooters. Well, I have also reported that the biggest/longest rolls I've been on were by random shooters.

DI is not measured by wins. DI is identified by the (for lack of a better word) look of the roll of the dice.

Let me give you an example.

Put a sheet of aluminum foil on your bed and throw your dice so they hit the aluminum foil. Now look at the marks on the foil.

If you see impressions from the dice corners you dont have a controlled throw.

But if you see impressions of the two dice hitting flat or on the edges and the dice land close to each other then you have a controlled throw.

No one controls the dice after they hit the table. But if you have a controlled throw you have a better chance of limiting the movement of the dice after they hit the table.
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You are really talking about “controlled tossing” as opposed to influencing the result for desired outcome.

The former, I see all the time. Rhythm rollers. The latter would require far far too many tosses to get a confirmable answer.

Controlled thrower is a bit different than dice influencer, no?
Dieter
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Dieter
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January 14th, 2022 at 2:28:45 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas


Controlled thrower is a bit different than dice influencer, no?
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My understanding is that a controlled set and a controlled throw are essential in the attempt to make the dice more likely to land one way than another.

If you can change how the dice land within the rules of the game, that's wonderful. More power to you.

I haven't seen anyone who can.
May the cards fall in your favor.
TumblingBones
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January 14th, 2022 at 7:48:13 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TumblingBones



Not that I would expect any results to change anybody's mind. I just think it would be a fun study to do and i wouldn't mind getting paid to do it :)

Results would absolutely change my mind…results are the ONLY thing that would change my mind. But, to my knowledge, no one has ever been able to demonstrate they can throw less than 1/6th sevens over the long term
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Then you are one of the rare exceptions to the norm and there may still be hope for humanity.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 14th, 2022 at 7:54:12 AM permalink
It would take a hell of a sample size, but results that were somehow verifiable would be enough to change my mind. I do not write DI off as totally impossible, but if it is possible at all, I don't think very many people could do it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
onebok
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Mission146SOOPOO
January 14th, 2022 at 8:04:50 AM permalink
Controlled throw and dice influence are quite different...

Alan described a well-known way to show that one has a level of control over the toss using a simple sheet of aluminum foil over a flat
surface. While that does show some control, it is a far cry from dice influence (ie: getting a non-random result). The huge grey areas
of control are simply not easily visible to the naked eye.
Example: While dice may strike the surface without hitting their corners, they still react from surface impact and any slight difference
in force towards one side of the horizontal plane of a die's contact to the table-surface, will cause the ensuing motion of that die to
accrue random behavior as it travels to a stop.

My point is that while the control looks good and the foil shows a good landing, the invisible level of forces upon the dice are still
wreaking havoc upon the reliability of actual results. The physics of a huge mass with the muscular forces of an arm controlling
the relatively gossamer dice are daunting.

Controlled throw and landing are probably not even getting close to the demands of real influence.

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