tuttigym
tuttigym
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Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 8:28:24 PM permalink
Mr.O: His math is NOT real. The game and its actual outcomes during any given session ARE real.

tuttigym
AlanMendelson
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Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 11:39:37 PM permalink
Many casinos with a $25 minimum will not allow dollar bets on the hardways without at least one $25 bet on the layout.
Mission146
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June 26th, 2021 at 4:03:32 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mission 146: There is no way that I can follow most of the above run of numbers. I realize that the hops are one roll bets and there could be a string without a hit, however, while you might be an anomaly regarding the one hit on the place bet and down, the vast majority of players leave their bets on the table until they are closed down with a 7 out. So do you take your $30 place bet and leave never to place it again? If you are playing the game, you will put it out there and be exposed. The major fallacy with math associated with HA/HE is not the payout, it is the actual edge the house has after a point is established. The oft stated 0% HA on the free odds bet is bogus because winning that bet must accompany a point conversion which is never in the player's favor.

Continuously citing "probabilities" Is truly meaningless because the reality of craps is the overall probability that after a point is established, if one is counting on point conversions, losing during any given session will happen well over 85% of the time.

Are you aware that one can hop the 7, after the point is established, 4 times for $3 each time and on the fifth roll, still win? I can place $6 in hop bets 21 times and lose all to equal one 7 out on the above $125 loss. Can that happen? Sure. But I won't go broke at the table on those 21 rolls, however, it is far more likely that there will be four 7 outs during that time generating much greater losses and possibly bankrupting the "establishment" player. On the other hand if that player, during that time, hits any place bets, and I am on those same numbers, I would win also. If I get two wins, I then would put $30 on the don't odds. Further wins would convert to regular $25 Place bets or I might wait for the next hand. My play is not static nor is it the same with every shooter.

Like you, I do believe in bringing down my bets after a limited number of rolls and wins. For example, placing bets across the board with a $4 Horn allows for me to hit two or three numbers and bring it all down. A 7 out is devastating and has happened, but that is gambling. But just to be clear, a $25 table limits my flexibility in the way I play and is not within my comfort zone. Also, one is not going to win anything of consequence during any session with $1 bets.

tuttigym



Quote: tuttigym

Mission 146: There is no way that I can follow most of the above run of numbers.



ALSO:

Quote:

Mr.O: His math is NOT real. The game and its actual outcomes during any given session ARE real.

tuttigym



Let's go ahead and address a few things here:

1.) So, you're writing the math off as, "Not real," even though, by your own admission, you cannot follow it? I think I'm going to start wholly dismissing everything that astrophysicists have to say about Universal event predictions, even though I don't understand about 75% of the way they get to their conclusions.

2.) There is no, "His math," it's just, "THE math." It applies to everyone and is not my property. It can be the math, "The way he did it," but it's immutable when it comes to expectation.

3.) The outcomes during a session reflect your actual results. Your actual results will not always be to expectation. If you make a single Pass Line bet, for instance, that bet will either win 100% or lose 100%, though it is expected to lose 1.41%...so a single Pass Line bet literally cannot perform exactly to expectation.

If everything went exactly according to expectation, then it wouldn't be gambling. That's what makes it gambling, otherwise, it would be a concept that you might have heard of called, "Subtraction."

Naturally, subtraction is what will ultimately happen sooner or later anyway.

Quote:

I realize that the hops are one roll bets and there could be a string without a hit, however, while you might be an anomaly regarding the one hit on the place bet and down, the vast majority of players leave their bets on the table until they are closed down with a 7 out. So do you take your $30 place bet and leave never to place it again? If you are playing the game, you will put it out there and be exposed.



I don't take down my Place Bets; I was suggesting that you COULD take down your Place Bets after a win. If you were to do that and (in the event that you win on both) can be patient enough to just wait until after the next Come Out roll, then I think you could sometimes enjoy long sessions on a relatively limited bankroll. I definitely think you'll give yourself a better chance to have a profitable session than this Hop idea.

As far as the rest of your post goes, please don't feel the need to defend yourself as I am not attacking. I don't care how you play as your money is none of my business. I simply wanted to demonstrate, for your potential benefit, the expected loss of your idea v. the Place Bets on Six & Eight.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 26th, 2021 at 5:51:26 AM permalink
Mr. Mission 146: First, if I sounded a bit chippy, it is out of my frustration with people using "THE math" as their total guidepost in explaining virtually anything in craps. I want to apologize. Second, "THE math" suggests, in the case of the PL bet, a 1.41% HA. Does that mean that over tens of thousands of PL bets that the player will only lose $1.41?? How is that possible on an even money wager on a $25; $15; or $10 table? It cannot happen. So while "THE math" is, by formula, correct, the reality of outcomes is NOT real. Besides, no one who plays the game just wagers exclusively throughout the totality of a session on just the PL. Because of that, why continuously tout the 1.41 HA? When will those who embrace such tell us all the HA on the PL bet AFTER a point is established? That might truly reflect craps HA reality because that is when the game actually starts.

The term "expectation" is vague and indefinite. It is supposition or guessing and truly unscientific. So to firmly associate that term with "THE math," by definition makes "THE math" unreal.

Because the hop bets are one roll wagers, it is most likely an overall loser vs the standard Place bet. I agree with that statement. The original exercise was to try to thwart the casino with a high table minimum and play with a smaller buy-in. So I demonstrated that.

So when you or Mr. O or Mr. Chmp c or anyone participating in this thread go to the casino, do you make your way to the craps table? Buy-in with how much? and play?
Are you an "establishment" player, i.e. PL + odds + Place bets or are you unorthodox in your gambling or does "THE math" have you so fearful that do not play at all?

tuttigym
Dieter
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June 26th, 2021 at 6:55:15 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

"THE math" suggests, in the case of the PL bet, a 1.41% HA. Does that mean that over tens of thousands of PL bets that the player will only lose $1.41??



The math suggests that the player will lose approximately 1.41 cents per dollar wagered.
May the cards fall in your favor.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 26th, 2021 at 8:00:02 AM permalink
Mr.Dieter: So, again, how does one lose $1.41 on an even money bet on a $10 table and WHAT is the HA on PL bets AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED (emphasis)??

Better yet, tell us exactly how many PL bets one must make in order to lose that $1.41. If "THE math" is real, that number should be an absolute constant, i.e., X number of rolls in EVERY set EVERY time one engages in such a set. (Each roll of the dice is a come out roll only.)

tuttigym
Mission146
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June 26th, 2021 at 8:40:25 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. Mission 146: First, if I sounded a bit chippy, it is out of my frustration with people using "THE math" as their total guidepost in explaining virtually anything in craps. I want to apologize. Second, "THE math" suggests, in the case of the PL bet, a 1.41% HA. Does that mean that over tens of thousands of PL bets that the player will only lose $1.41?? How is that possible on an even money wager on a $25; $15; or $10 table? It cannot happen. So while "THE math" is, by formula, correct, the reality of outcomes is NOT real. Besides, no one who plays the game just wagers exclusively throughout the totality of a session on just the PL. Because of that, why continuously tout the 1.41 HA? When will those who embrace such tell us all the HA on the PL bet AFTER a point is established? That might truly reflect craps HA reality because that is when the game actually starts.

The term "expectation" is vague and indefinite. It is supposition or guessing and truly unscientific. So to firmly associate that term with "THE math," by definition makes "THE math" unreal.

Because the hop bets are one roll wagers, it is most likely an overall loser vs the standard Place bet. I agree with that statement. The original exercise was to try to thwart the casino with a high table minimum and play with a smaller buy-in. So I demonstrated that.

So when you or Mr. O or Mr. Chmp c or anyone participating in this thread go to the casino, do you make your way to the craps table? Buy-in with how much? and play?
Are you an "establishment" player, i.e. PL + odds + Place bets or are you unorthodox in your gambling or does "THE math" have you so fearful that do not play at all?

tuttigym



Here's the thing about it when you want to argue against the math or that the math is not relevant:

1.) In an earlier post, I acknowledged that the expectation will not come to fruition in the context of a single bet. If you bet $100 on the Pass Line, assuming no odds, then you can only win or lose $100---you cannot lose the expected amount of $1.41.

Most people who disregard expectation think they are making some great point that renders the math meaningless when what they are saying is obvious. Anyone presenting the math would say that it's obvious. You can't lose $1.41 on a $100 Pass Line bet.

The more trials of a game that you have; the more likely that the sum of your results will be closer in line to the expected loss. In the case of a single $100 Pass Line bet, you're either running approximately $101.41 better than expected, after resolution, or approximately $98.59 worse than expected.

If the math is insufficient for you and you would like to do an Empirical observation on what is, "Real," then all you need do is go to a physical Craps Table and watch it for 10 hours or so, per day, for thirty days. Count the number of Pass Line bets that are made and index them as to all being for the same amount. Count the number of times the Pass Line wins and the number of times it loses. You will find that the results on those bets only (if you treat all players as having bet the same amount) will be really darn close to a 1.41% loss.

Or, you can acknowledge that the math works which, for most people, is much faster to do.

2.) I'm not, "Touting," anything about the Pass Line. As an alternative to your proposal, I liked the idea of making equal Place Bets on the 6 & 8 for you because I feel like it has a good chance of accomplishing what you seem to wish to get out of a session while giving you a reasonable probability of a profitable session.

3.) The term, "Expectation," is neither vague nor indefinite. (Amount to be Won * Probability of Winning) - (Amount To be Lost * Probability of Losing) = Expectation, at least, when it comes to a bet with a binary result, which the vast majority of Craps bets do have.

4.) If you want to thwart the casino, then I would recommend simply not playing at a $25 minimum. If nobody would play $25 minimums, then eventually, they would either have to get rid of Craps or reduce the minimums. It doesn't matter HOW you play a $25 minimum table, if you play it at all, then they are expected to win.

You're not, "Thwarting," anything by playing a game that you are expected to lose and by making high house edge bets. The only thing you're accomplishing is having a lower absolute loss on any given roll.

5.) I already detailed how I play Craps. My sub-optimal bets are my Place Bets and my terrible bet is that I have a, "Crap Check," for $1 working every Come Out roll. I have analyzed the expected loss on these bets and find the sum of my expected losses acceptable given:

A.) How rarely I play Craps.

AND:

B.) The most, in terms of actual money, that I am willing to lose when I do play Craps.

The math says what the math says. Nobody is demanding that you play in the mathematically optimal way. In fact, if you're playing at all, you're not playing in the mathematically optimal way. The mathematically optimal way to, 'Play,' a negative expectation game is NOT to play it at all.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Jun 26, 2021
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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June 26th, 2021 at 8:57:21 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr.Dieter: So, again, how does one lose $1.41 on an even money bet on a $10 table and WHAT is the HA on PL bets AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED (emphasis)??

Better yet, tell us exactly how many PL bets one must make in order to lose that $1.41. If "THE math" is real, that number should be an absolute constant, i.e., X number of rolls in EVERY set EVERY time one engages in such a set. (Each roll of the dice is a come out roll only.)

tuttigym



What is the House Advantage on Don't Pass bets AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED? There isn't one. A point having been established, Don't Pass is expected to profit, which is the precise reason that a casino will generally allow you to pick up a DP bet after a point is established, but not a PL bet.

To answer your question:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#defining-the-house-edge

I would say that the HA on a PL bet AFTER A POINT IS ESTABLISHED does not change, because the HA is predicated upon the fact that you are more likely to win a PL bet on the CO roll than you are to lose.

There is a separate bet that can be made on the point after it has been established and that is called a, "Put Bet," the House Edges for which you can find on the link above.

Your second paragraph is nonsense due to a mathematical concept called variance. If there were, "Absolute constants," in terms of actual results, then it wouldn't be gambling...it would just be subtraction.

That's like saying a 50% probability of heads on a coin flip doesn't mathematically exist because a single flip is either going to be heads or tails. It would be like asking, "How many coin flips until the number of heads and tails flipped are going to be equal as an, 'Absolute Constant,'" there is no such number. That's why you get into concepts, given a particular number of bets made, such as standard deviation.

Giving you the base expectation is as simple as gambling mathematical concepts get. We can get into higher level mathematical concepts, but if you cannot accept expectation being what it is, then you'll consider the higher level concepts similarly irrelevant, or alternatively, will not understand them as you stated (by your own admission) that you could not follow my math vis-a-vis expectation.

I also can't emphasize enough that I don't care what you decide to do with your own money. If we were at the Craps Table and you said, "Give me $110 inside, a nickel on every hard way, two dollar midnight, two dollar snake eyes, and a $5 Yo," whilst tossing in $139 in chips, I wouldn't say a word to you as it's none of my concern what happens with your bets. If nothing else, I'd hope to go on a serious heater and then maybe you'd toss a shooter toke my way!

But, this isn't a Craps Table. This is a gambling forum that is a spin off of the WizardofOdds site which has always been primarily focused on mathematical expectation and identifying the lowest house edge bets. Some of us talk about the underlying math here. That's what I am here to do. If you don't want to play in a fashion that has the lowest expected loss, then that's your choice.

Honestly, if you understand the expectation when it comes to the bets that you are proposing and decide you want to do that---I couldn't be happier for you. I'm happy that you understand the expectation of the way that you are choosing to play and can sleep easily knowing I have done my job.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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June 26th, 2021 at 9:01:38 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr.Dieter: So, again, how does one lose $1.41 on an even money bet on a $10 table and WHAT is the HA on PL bets AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED (emphasis)??

Better yet, tell us exactly how many PL bets one must make in order to lose that $1.41. If "THE math" is real, that number should be an absolute constant, i.e., X number of rolls in EVERY set EVERY time one engages in such a set. (Each roll of the dice is a come out roll only.)

tuttigym



It means if you made 10,000 of them the most likely outcome is you have lost $1,410 on your handle of $100,000.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TDVegas
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June 26th, 2021 at 9:32:13 AM permalink
$1.41 in losses is tied to $100 in action on the pass line. Thatís what you are expected to lose.

$14.10 on $1,000 in action.

$141 on $10,000 in action.

$1,410 on 100,000 in action.

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