billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:49:08 PM permalink
The Gentlemen says he has been playing craps since 1960 and seems to think a 1.41 HA means he should lose a dollar forty-one if he brings a $1,000 bankroll. Assuming this is true, why would anyone think he is going to change his thinking now?
Suppose you believed something all your life and after fifty years people started telling you you'd been wrong the whole time? It can't be very easy to accept.
I'd rather read about his fifty years of playing in Vegas.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:49:57 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

No, they aren't fair statements. The additional wagers, other than the passline odds bet, are in no way, shape or form tied to the success or failure of the PL bet. They are independent bets. They are resolved based on their own criteria. They have zero effect on the house edge of the PL bet you already made. Those bets (except the odds bet) carry their own house edge that is greater than 0%.



So all the additional Place bets and prop bets on the table are NOT effected by a 7 Out which closes out the hand and are cleared from the table into the House's stack of chips? While those bets can win independently during the hand, the PL ultimately controls their fate and life span.

tuttigym
sabre
sabre 
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:51:27 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Are you old enough to remember the "science" and "math" that declared the Earth to be the center of the universe or the Earth was flat, or that man could never fly? Well I am here to inform you that that "math" and "science" was wrong. So.............



If this isn't getting into trolling territory I don't know what is.
sabre
sabre 
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:52:44 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

So all the additional Place bets and prop bets on the table are NOT effected by a 7 Out which closes out the hand and are cleared from the table into the House's stack of chips? While those bets can win independently during the hand, the PL ultimately controls their fate and life span.

tuttigym



They have nothing to do with the house edge of the passline bet. They are independent bets that carry their own house edge.

I personally don't believe your motives are pure.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:58:27 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The Gentlemen says he has been playing craps since 1960 and seems to think a 1.41 HA means he should lose a dollar forty-one if he brings a $1,000 bankroll. Assuming this is true, why would anyone think he is going to change his thinking now?
Suppose you believed something all your life and after fifty years people started telling you you'd been wrong the whole time? It can't be very easy to accept.
I'd rather read about his fifty years of playing in Vegas.



Very profound and many times it is true, but one can hope, I guess, in affecting change.

I am not sure that would be a compelling read, but who knows maybe Mr. Mendelson will produce such and become a best selling author.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:10:16 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

They have nothing to do with the house edge of the passline bet. They are independent bets that carry their own house edge.

I personally don't believe your motives are pure.



I did not say they have anything to do with the HE. I simply stated that the PL affects other right side bets on the table. If you think I inferred such, it is not the case. Purity of "motive? Not sure what that means.

tuttigym
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:22:00 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I did not say they have anything to do with the HE. I simply stated that the PL affects other right side bets on the table. If you think I inferred such, it is not the case. Purity of "motive? Not sure what that means.

tuttigym



Tutti…. NO ONE HERE IS SAYING IF YOU PLAY 100 pass lines at $10 you will lose EXACTLY $14.10.

To have a coherent discussion with you, first you must understand what variance is. You clearly do not. So in addition to not understanding g what house edge is, you don’t understand variance either. You’ve gone 80 years and have no clue over any of the math that governs gambling? Really?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:35:45 PM permalink
Mr. Tuttigym, I think I finally know where you are coming from. The HE of Craps on the line bets is often remarked on to be one of the lowest edges of any bet in the casino. You seem to feel this is emphasized too much, that we would be better off just shutting up, because what you have seen over the years is people getting clobbered at Craps. 

Some are taking your comments to mean you don't believe the math. I don't think that's true. 

Some are taking your comments as a subtle attempt to troll. I don't thinks so, but I have to admit I think this thread should have died a long time ago. 

I think you are just saying the low edge on the pass line isn't going to save you. For the most part, if someone becomes a Craps player, you feel such a person better be prepared to forget about 'low house edge' . It has little reality to it as an experience you will get at a session or many sessions. When posters also say the same thing, you feel they still don't get it when they won't also say the 1.41% edge has little practical meaning. 

One reason I have come to this conclusion is you have asked me a lot of questions about the math elsewhere, and I don't get a retort that you don't buy it when I try to explain what I know [which has limits]

Am I right about this?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:43:24 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The key word you have used is 'EXPECTED." Real world craps with "random" rolls do not/have not produced documented results that mirror the possibility of playing 495 hands/PL bets consecutive or not with that "expected" outcome. Just because there are 495 possible ways to win and lose PL bets doesn't mean that it can happen in such a way as to create that 1.41% HA/HE. These continued declarations are unsupported and can be viewed as "guarantees" by the unknowing and gullible.

The "establishment" craps community continues to rely and pontificate that this "math" is ABSOLUTE and UNDENIABLE just because it is there when in fact and practice the vast majority of play (over 70%) occurs after point establishment where the real HA/HE overtakes that puny 1.41% and can cause the player multiple and large losses during any given session.

Only "7 extra losses," is that your guarantee regardless of point outcomes? Sign me up right now.


Thank you. I know that you are sincere in those sentiments. I believe you to be a good person and one with high tolerance because your posts are courteous and respectful.

tuttigym

Seems like you need to work on your basic probability and statistics knowledge.

If you were to make one billion PL bets, you can be about 99.9% confident that your loss will be 1.41% of the total amount you wagered. Flat betting of course

And regarding the HE varying after a point is established, you could say the same thing about blackjack, for instance. The overall HE is about half a percent but if the dealer is showing an Ace and you get dealt a hard 16, it's a lot higher for that hand. Why don't you just bet Don't Pass then...once a point is established you have the edge
It’s all about making that GTA
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
July 3rd, 2021 at 6:12:17 PM permalink
Those of us who have studied statistics and probability theory understand this stuff about craps. We also understand the outcome probability for the flip of a fair coin is 50% heads and 50% tails.

But c'mon, folks, tuttigym has pointed out to us that if that were really true, then every 10 flips of that coin would result in exactly 5 heads and 5 tails. Likewise, every 50 flips would result in exactly 25 heads and 25 tails, and every 5 flips would result in exactly 2.5 heads and 2.5 tails.

Now, we know that can't be, so -- based on tuttigym's expert guidance -- it seams we must abandon the stupidity of expecting a fair coin flip to result in 50% heads and 50% tails. All of that was just absurd mathmaticians talking.

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