ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 10:03:19 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Two questions in the reality of a session or consecutive sessions: 1: Would you or anyone ever play that way? and 2. Why?


Two questions: 1: Have you or anybody you are acquainted with play that way or EVER witnessed or attempted that strategy? If so, 2: What were the actual results, and if not, why propose a betting plan that has virtually no chance of succeeding? But, in your defense, being outrageous can be lots of fun.

tuttigym



These are theoretical results you should expect, and your luck may vary.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 10:07:48 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I just played for 10 hours of Bubble craps on a $30 buy-in and won 22 cents. So I cashed out before I was down to under a dollar again, but hadn't quite doubled my money. I'm sure there were several hundred rolls. I was betting $2 on the PL, or to switch things up $1 PL + $1 Odds. Sometimes I got down to "case bets" on the 4 or 10 and bet double odds and won (or lost). If I bet $2 PL + $4 Odds, I'd win $10 and get my $6 back. Do that 3 times quickly I can raise my bet to $1 PL + $2 Odds, or go for a $3 PL.


You definitely have too much time on your hands. How do you deal with the boredom? 22 cents, wow, did you report that to the IRS or will you wait for the casino to send you a 1099?

Quote: ChumpChange

I've got a WinCraps chart up and I was just betting PL with Odds. It says there were 188 wagers on the PL with 98 wins & 90 losses, for a net win of 8 or 4.25%. I bet a total of $44,700 and won $22,740 & lost $21,960 for a net win of $780 on the PL or 1.745%. On the PL with Odds section, it says there were 132 wagers, 60 wins, 72 losses for a net loss of 12 on the odds points, or -9.091%. It says I wagered $94,860, won $61,974 and lost $52,920, for a net win of $9,054, or 9.545%. I think I was betting triple odds in the triple digits (like 10X a $15 table). So I'm up $9,834 on a $10K buy-in; I was up $21K halfway through. This was over 662 rolls in a sim period of 5.5 hours. I was also trying a new strategy so these are the good results before Win Craps inevitably goes bonkers negative on me after it learns my strategy.


I just bought WinCraps. My computer blocked the download saying it would harm my system. Bummer. All "remedies" from Steen at WinCraps failed. Waiting for the disc.

So your next foray to the casino I guess you will buy in for what, $10,000? Hope to be able to bet a total of $44,700 during your session to win $22,740 and win a net of $780? In actual real time, how long do you estimate that would take? Any potty or snack breaks? Just asking.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 10:09:33 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

These are theoretical results you should expect, and your luck may vary.



Oh! So nothing is real. OK, I get it now.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 10:21:31 AM permalink
I'll probably buy-in for $60 next time and bet $2 PL + $2 Odds (or $2 PB 6 or 8). I seem to have better luck just betting one or two numbers, but when I roll 26 times in a row before hitting my point and I only hit my place bet once, luck is just avoiding me like the plague.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 10:22:57 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

These are only expected results, based on the odds. With variance…anything can happen. Over prolonged play, years, decades….I’m going to suggest it’s going to be closer to $1.41 than not.


So does the randomness of the game actually mess up expected results and variance? If so, why rely on the formula and concept of the 1.41 HA and why embrace it?

I need to tell you that being as old as I am, I am not sure how many years I have left, certainly not decades.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 10:33:22 AM permalink
If you win $100 and the HA over the time of your session was $100, you would have won $200 without that HA.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 11:54:53 AM permalink
Tuttigym: you should not be playing craps.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 12:24:15 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tuttigym: you should not be playing craps.



Mr. Mendelson: LOL. So your play does not contribute to casino profits and mine does? How can they possibly survive? Without using "THE math,"(dissecting bets according to perceived HA and/or EV), and because you believe me to be totally incompetent with everything craps, provide me with a simple road map that you personally use that allows you winning sessions a comfortable majority of the time. I will start with a buy-in of $600. My modest win target is $250-$300 for the session. The table minimum is $15. The time length of the session should not exceed 90 minutes because I am an old, short, fat, dumpy dude. You up for the throw down?

tuttigym
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 12:32:09 PM permalink
Save yourself some grief. Stop playing. In fact, put yourself on a self exclusion list. Block this website and anything to do with gambling. Enjoy your years.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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Mission146
June 27th, 2021 at 12:35:46 PM permalink
I am sorry; I am scratching my head on that one. How does one know that the HA is $100 when I win $100. Beating the HA for any amount is a + multiplier for the player over the house because the player starts with a negative expectation for any session. Isn't that what the HA is all about?

tuttigym

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