Craps Scam - Cons Busted Bellagio-
November 19th, 2018 at 10:17:41 AM
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Quote: billryanSo if a cashier at Mickey Ds mistakenly gives you change for a hundred instead of a twenty, it's a keeper 𝐞𝐡?
No, I would feel bad for the cashier who I know is going to have his draw counted short.
nothing similar to that could happen at a BJ table - if it's a once in a blue moon thing they'd have to be lucky to spot it with the EITS.
and as I said it could be worse for the dealer if you point out his mistake
𝐞𝐡? Canada guy or just like the lingo?
eh jokes never get tired
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
November 19th, 2018 at 10:37:15 AM
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Quote: billryanSo if a cashier at Mickey Ds mistakenly gives you change for a hundred instead of a twenty, it's a keeper,eh?
When I was much younger and slightly morally bankrupt, I was hoping a Cashier would give me more than my change. :/ I no longer think like that anymore.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
"Olive oil is processed but it only has one
ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D
I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;)
Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D
"For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
November 19th, 2018 at 10:45:13 AM
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Quote: petroglyphChange at Mickey D's, is like a box of chocolates.
Getting change is different. Anyone should know what is correct.
But with rules and payouts there are many people who dont know them fully. If a dealer is making mistakes they probably benefit the players some of the time and benefits the house the other
Its up to the dealer to be trained properly and make correct rule calls and payouts
EDIT: meant to quote Bill Ryan post about change
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
November 19th, 2018 at 10:47:38 AM
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Looks like Judge Joe had it right. It really does come down to home training. Many times, I think about doing something and then think about how my parents would be with it. They are long gone but the moral compass they instilled still guides me. Fools laugh, the wise understand.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
November 19th, 2018 at 11:03:25 AM
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I was going to say, get a sense of humor.Quote: darkozGetting change is different. Anyone should know what is correct.
But with rules and payouts there are many people who dont know them fully. If a dealer is making mistakes they probably benefit the players some of the time and benefits the house the other
Its up to the dealer to be trained properly and make correct rule calls and payouts
I appreciate this part of your post. Until you split up the posters handle like you did, with my cataracts BillRyan, always looked like Billy ran.Quote:EDIT: meant to quote Bill Ryan post about change
November 19th, 2018 at 6:53:54 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterIf you get paid too much or get paid when you shouldn't at a blackjack table, and you accept the overpayment that is not cheating or dishonest by any stretch of the imagination IMO. it is the casino's responsibility to pay you correctly - it is not your responsibility to correct any errors.
Quote: billryanSo if a cashier at Mickey Ds mistakenly gives you change for a hundred instead of a twenty, it's a keeper,eh?
So let's put this back in the context of a casino. I recently made a driving trip stopping at 13 casinos in NY, Canada, MA, NJ, & MD. I played craps where it was available and other games where it wasn't. My primary reason for stopping at all these casinos was to add souvenir chips to my collection. I was expecting to tell this little story when I posted an image of a souvenir in the Casino Chip of the Day thread, but it seems to fit here.
At one casino, I bought in for $200, lost a bit, kept a $2.50 chip as a souvenir (explanation for that to be provided when I post the chip), and cashed in my remaining chips, which had a total value of $157.50.
I think it is possible that the cashier may have gotten confused because she wasn't accustomed to paying out coins when redeeming chips. Whatever the reason, she overpaid me. I'd have to check my records, but I think she gave me $177.50. It didn't look right, so I just stepped to the side to recount while she started serving the next customer in line.
When she was again available, I stepped back to her and reported the overpayment. She seemed overly confused then, and I don't know whether it was because she couldn't believe she had miscounted the cash or because she couldn't believe someone would try to return money in such a situation.
Now after a cashier has made an error like that, I would expect the re-count to be very precise. No. On second try, she short-changed me by a few dollars! After that, I told her exactly how much more she needed to pay me to make it right, and we got it straight.
The whole experience puzzled me. I explained to my wife that I thought someone needed to know that their cashier couldn't count currency. I wasn't sure how to handle this properly, but I eventually described my experience to a pit supervisor. He had a surprised/troubled expression, but I don't know whether he would bother to pass the info along to anyone else.
Just an odd experience.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:20:29 AM
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Quote: Ace2I get 9.28 rolls.
Ln 452,000,000,000 / Ln 18
You're absolutely right. I did it for 452 million, not 452 billion. Agreed the answer is ln (452000000000)/ln(18) = 9.284946804.
What is my punishment?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 20th, 2018 at 7:31:51 AM
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Either write a post that sneaks in a useage of the old English billion and see who notices, or sneak in a post that explains what kCal means and why Calorie and calorie are used to mean the same thing when they are not.Quote: WizardYou're absolutely right. I did it for 452 million, not 452 billion. Agreed the answer is ln (452000000000)/ln(18) = 9.284946804.
What is my punishment?
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:55:55 AM
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start rolling the dice.Quote: WizardWhat is my punishment?
yes, you can use those trick dice.
I say the ones that have a 5 on all the faces of one die and another die that has three(3) 6s and three(3) 2s.
how long will it take you to roll 7 in a row yos?
when I pointed this out to you, I thought you would catch what you had done.
wrong again (assumptions)
I would have said something about rolling at least 10 yos in a row in 17 tries
as I figured the cheaters would not have won every bet tried. They needed some cover.
X in a row over X rolls
(08:17) gp > 1/(2/36)^6
%1 = 34,012,224
(08:17) gp > 1/(2/36)^7
%2 = 612,220,032
(08:17) gp > 1/(2/36)^8
%3 = 11,019,960,576
(08:17) gp > 1/(2/36)^9
%4 = 198,359,290,368
(08:17) gp > 1/(2/36)^10
%5 = 3,570,467,226,624
streak calculator markov chain results
(do not know how accurate this is - as if it matters)
> runs.r(10,19,2/36)
[1] 2.660716e-12
375,838,684,023.398
> runs.r(10,18,2/36)
[1] 2.396201e-12
417,327,260,943.468
> runs.r(10,17,2/36)
[1] 2.131685e-12
469,112,462,676.2
The article must have used a binomial probability distribution
for 1 in 452 billion
or
dare we not say a Poisson distribution
or
just guessed
***** *****
at least this group was not as 'head scratching' as the guy from Vegas who found that Game King glitch
with video poker jackpots while changing the denominations. some are just too greedy and foolish when it comes to money. (yes, he too got caught. something like 11 jackpots in 1.5 hours)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 20th, 2018 at 10:37:36 AM
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Quote: 7crapsstart rolling the dice.
yes, you can use those trick dice.
I say the ones that have a 5 on all the faces of one die and another die that has three(3) 6s and three(3) 2s.
how long will it take you to roll 7 in a row yos?
This is a little trickier than it sounds, because there are 8 different states the player can be in. Similar problem to AZD's question about getting the same pocket pair three times in a row in one sitting of Texas Hold 'Em.
Using the same matrix algebra, I show the probability of having achieved seven yo's in a row, in 177 rolls, with these loaded dice to be 0.49943822. I hope you'll let the median number suffice, and that is as close to 0.5 as we can get.
This seems off, because the odds of getting seven yo's in seven roll is 128. The problem is a seven overlaps many spans. The distribution of the number of seven-yo sequences in n total rolls, where n>7, is definitely not going to be Poisson. The name of whatever distribution it would have, I don't know, but would be interested to know.
Anyway, I hope this answer will suffice as serving my punishment.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 20th, 2018 at 3:07:24 PM
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The next time you play Craps and its your turn to shoot (obviously you must have a pass or dont pass bet):Quote: WizardYou're absolutely right. I did it for 452 million, not 452 billion. Agreed the answer is ln (452000000000)/ln(18) = 9.284946804.
What is my punishment?
1) you must bet at least $5 on yo every time you roll
2) before each roll you must loudly say ok now big bucks no whammies
Its all about making that GTA
November 21st, 2018 at 6:29:32 AM
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Quote: Ace2
1) you must bet at least $5 on yo every time you roll
2) before each roll you must loudly say ok now big bucks no whammies
my favorite line for a yo bet is:
𝑩𝑨𝑩𝒀 𝑵𝑬𝑬𝑫𝑺 𝑵𝑬𝑾 𝑺𝑯𝑶𝑬𝑺
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
November 21st, 2018 at 8:25:15 AM
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did not expect the heavy artillery.Quote: WizardThis is a little trickier than it sounds, because there are 8 different states the player can be in.
Using the same matrix algebra, I show the probability of having achieved seven yo's in a row, in 177 rolls, with these loaded dice to be 0.49943822. I hope you'll let the median number suffice, and that is as close to 0.5 as we can get.
This seems off, because the odds of getting seven yo's in seven roll is 128.
I agree with your findings.
The 128 value is for the number of attempts and each attempt is not 1 roll in length.
I would also have accepted 254 as the average number of rolls to see such an event
2^(r+1)-2
r=run length
this can (and has) be done easily in a spreadsheet using basic math and using just one column.
here is the link to one I have in Google sheets (was created in Excel 1st)
for those so inclined to investigate more. permissions is set so any one can view
https://goo.gl/LohxN3
punishment served in full.Quote: WizardAnyway, I hope this answer will suffice as serving my punishment.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 21st, 2018 at 10:20:50 AM
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Quote: 7crapsstart rolling the dice.
yes, you can use those trick dice.
I say the ones that have a 5 on all the faces of one die and another die that has three(3) 6s and three(3) 2s.
how long will it take you to roll 7 in a row yos?
On average it will take 2^(7 + 1) - 2 = 254 rolls to do that.
For the median number take 254 * ln (2) = 176.06 for an excellent approximation. You can do the Markov chain and see the actual median is closer to 177.
Its all about making that GTA
November 21st, 2018 at 11:36:59 AM
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I can point out that is nice to know.Quote: Ace2For the median number take 254 * ln (2) = 176.06 for an excellent approximation.
It remains to be seen if it is still 'excellent' on most skewed distributions.
The vast majority know the mean, median and mode is the same (like over X fair coin flips) and I doubt they could be convinced it is not that way all the time.
Being taught or even shown something (especially at math)
at an early age can lead to terrible misunderstandings as one gets older.
some do get wiser, most stay stuck to their early thoughts and beliefs.
(we will not comment on "Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest"
I just found it 'odd' that the Wizard selected the median and not the average
now I have to clean the kitchen
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 21st, 2018 at 12:34:34 PM
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Quote: Ace2For the median number take 254 * ln (2) = 176.06 for an excellent approximation. You can do the Markov chain and see the actual median is closer to 177.
Interesting, I did not know about that approximation. Yet another example that e is the meaning of life (not 42).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2018 at 1:09:35 PM
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Quote: 7crapsI just found it 'odd' that the Wizard selected the median and not the average
I did it the hard way with many matrix multiplications. Here is the easy way to answer the question at hand:
Let:
x0=expected number of rolls from the starting point or after a 7.
x1=expected number of rolls after one yo.
x2=expected number of rolls after two yo's.
x3=expected number of rolls after three yo's.
x4=expected number of rolls after four yo's.
x5=expected number of rolls after five yo's.
x6=expected number of rolls after six yo's.
x0 = 1 + (x0 + x1)/2
x1 = 1 + (x0 + x2)/2
x2 = 1 + (x0 + x3)/2
x3 = 1 + (x0 + x4)/2
x4 = 1 + (x0 + x5)/2
x5 = 1 + (x0 + x6)/2
x6 = 1 + x0/2
Seven equations and seven unknowns and you're ready to solve.
Matrix A =
| 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Matrix B =
| 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
xo= determinant(A)/determinant(B) = 256.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2018 at 1:12:05 PM
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All youre doing is saying this scenario is statistically congruent to a binary event with occurrence 1 in 254. Then solve for x where (253/254)^x = 1/2 = median. X = ~ 176.
So this method works exactly for binary events and is a good estimate for scenarios that can be approximated by a binary event.
But many cant so this doesnt always work
When there are lots of complex states and transitions the median is usually very close to the mean, like 90 % or more but always more than ln (2) 69.3% and always less than 100%
So this method works exactly for binary events and is a good estimate for scenarios that can be approximated by a binary event.
But many cant so this doesnt always work
When there are lots of complex states and transitions the median is usually very close to the mean, like 90 % or more but always more than ln (2) 69.3% and always less than 100%
Its all about making that GTA
November 25th, 2018 at 5:13:58 PM
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When I was much younger (maybe 22 or 23), I was playing BJ at Bally's in AC. I was playing BJ by myself for like 20 minutes. They had a variant where you put out 3 equal bets. Rules were mostly standard, but the dealer would draw to her card three times (that is, if the upcard was a 4, the dealer would draw to the 4 three separate times so that the dealer might have, for example, an 18, bust, 20). If you had a 19, your three bets would win, win, lose. In essence, you were playing 3 hands of BJ simultaneously. One result of this set-up was that if you busted, all 3 bets lost immediately. I was steadily losing, but still tipping the dealer $1 from time to time and not complaining about losing. On one hand, I busted. She quickly scooped up two of my bets and used her finger to flick back one of my bets. There was no error possible. It was the first time I saw something like that. I didn't want to run off and I didn't want to appear to be colluding with the dealer, so I stayed for 5 more minutes, didn't tip anymore, and then quietly left.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:25:24 PM
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Quote: WizardI would call it cheating.
Craps dealers leave up bets for their best players frequently. Many times I have played and seen hardways remain up when not hit especially with good tippers.
In a community like Vegas I am guessing collusion happens alot. Obviously there is no reason to do it except if there is a financial gain for the dealer or ifntbe player is friends.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
November 26th, 2018 at 4:07:59 AM
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There are many 'soft hustles'
Bar tender pour stiff drinks and get good tips but its the owner's booze.
Waitresses flirt and get tips but the bar owner would prefer
the money be spent on booze.
"shooter is our friend' is mentioned to a relief base dealer to let him know he should not
be excessively picky on the rules.
a Box can greenlight a soft hustle or turn it off.
I'll correct a casino error once they settle up with me on all the times they cheated me.
Bar tender pour stiff drinks and get good tips but its the owner's booze.
Waitresses flirt and get tips but the bar owner would prefer
the money be spent on booze.
"shooter is our friend' is mentioned to a relief base dealer to let him know he should not
be excessively picky on the rules.
a Box can greenlight a soft hustle or turn it off.
I'll correct a casino error once they settle up with me on all the times they cheated me.
December 6th, 2018 at 6:22:31 AM
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Quote: Fox newsAccording to the paper, the tables at the Bellagio did not have a designated spot for hop bets
I was at the Bellagio last night and can confirm the craps tables have spots for hop bets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 6th, 2018 at 7:23:19 AM
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I would bet Bellagio got new felts with those spots after this scam. I've played craps at many, many casinos in Vegas. Probably 90% of the strip casinos. I have no immediate recollection of Bellagio's layout last time I was there, but I definitely recall some having the designated spots, and some not and the dealers just have to keep track of them.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 6th, 2018 at 9:10:25 AM
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Can someone explain to me why casino management would even consider having a craps layout on the floor without a place to put hop bets? Does it cost more for the felt or something? Not enough room to add the spots?
Other than poker, I cant ever imagine a reason a casino would allow verbal bets.
Other than poker, I cant ever imagine a reason a casino would allow verbal bets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 6th, 2018 at 3:43:53 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfOther than poker, I cant ever imagine a reason a casino would allow verbal bets.
I agree, it just doesn't seem reasonable. If the dealers and a player were in collusion, they could easily have the player win as much as they wanted. To surveillance, it would all look normal as they don't know what verbals were bets were accepted or not.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 6th, 2018 at 4:51:24 PM
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I suspect their policy is probably, "No (winning) call bets" or "No call bets from fleas who won't make good, but if you are a known high roller, feel free", but it doesn't look too classy to put it on a sign like they do downtown.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 7th, 2018 at 5:31:18 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfCan someone explain to me why casino management would even consider having a craps layout on the floor without a place to put hop bets? Does it cost more for the felt or something? Not enough room to add the spots?
Other than poker, I cant ever imagine a reason a casino would allow verbal bets.
My guess is cheaper felt, or perhaps a design decision as the hop bets are not common, and they kind of clog up the layout.
I recall sometimes dealers using some combination of lammers to indicate hop bets.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 7th, 2018 at 11:54:39 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI suspect their policy is probably, "No (winning) call bets" or "No call bets from fleas who won't make good, but if you are a known high roller, feel free", but it doesn't look too classy to put it on a sign like they do downtown.
"NO CALL BETS" has actually been around longer on craps than hop bets. The original meaning was that if an unknown player came to the table and said "Gimme a thousand on the pass line" when the dice were out, there was no bet made if the crew could not see the money.
If a known Credit Player came to the same table and said the same thing, it would be considered a bet if the player had credit available.
Someone with a big wad of cash showing, or a handful of chips could make a last minute verbal bet and the crew would try to book it if possible.
The scam with the hop bets at Bellagio was completely different. These players dropped chips on the layout and mumbled a bet.
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
December 7th, 2018 at 12:41:35 PM
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Quote: FCBLComish"NO CALL BETS" has actually been around longer on craps than hop bets. The original meaning was that if an unknown player came to the table and said "Gimme a thousand on the pass line" when the dice were out, there was no bet made if the crew could not see the money.
If a known Credit Player came to the same table and said the same thing, it would be considered a bet if the player had credit available.
Someone with a big wad of cash showing, or a handful of chips could make a last minute verbal bet and the crew would try to book it if possible.
The scam with the hop bets at Bellagio was completely different. These players dropped chips on the layout and mumbled a bet.
Sorry, I didn't see in any of the news stories a mention that chips were dropped before a bet was "mumbled".
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 7th, 2018 at 1:50:46 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaSorry, I didn't see in any of the news stories a mention that chips were dropped before a bet was "mumbled".
I saw the videos. Player standing next to dealer drops chips. Dealer books bet verbally. Bet gets set up and paid after the roll.
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
December 7th, 2018 at 3:53:12 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfCan someone explain to me why casino management would even consider having a craps layout on the floor without a place to put hop bets? Does it cost more for the felt or something? Not enough room to add the spots?
Other than poker, I cant ever imagine a reason a casino would allow verbal bets.
It would be impractical to stop call bets in craps where player has chips. Casino would lose revenue. Player tosses a green chip towards stickman when dice are out and says nickel hard ways, the green chip usually stays where it lands until the roll is over. No way for eye in sky to tell what the bet was. But the casino wants to book those four $5 Hard way bets and makes money on average vs risk of some dealer collusion.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 8th, 2018 at 8:29:44 AM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsMy guess is cheaper felt, or perhaps a design decision as the hop bets are not common, and they kind of clog up the layout.
I recall sometimes dealers using some combination of lammers to indicate hop bets.
What can make it even more complicated is different dealers and boxmen use different techniques.
Some will point the chips in a direction, like on a clock. To the left is 9, down to the right is 5. Others will point to the left as being an 8, because 8 is to the left of 6 on the layout, and point the chips to the right for 6. Someone else set them up some other way, I could never figure out the rhyme or reason. Other boxmen just said I dont care, just dont f*** up and make me work harder than I have to, do what you want. Frequently, dealers would just splash chips in the hop bet area and verbally say what the bet is so basically every bet looks the same.
December 8th, 2018 at 4:46:11 PM
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Richard Marcus a casino cheat who claims he's made millions on ABC's Today Show
pretty strong scam in roulette IMO he calls "Savannah"
he places one $5K chip and on red chip on one of the column bets that pays 2/1.
the red chip is forwardly placed so the croupier can't see the $5K chip which is behind it and underneath
he has a drink in his hand and is looking really drunk
if the bet loses he pulls the 2 chips back and puts them in his pocket
if the dealer catches him and tells him to put it back he goes into a drunk routine
he says "I'm sorry, I'm sorry I didn't know the bet lost" and reaches into his pocket and puts the chips back on the losing bet where they were
but instead of one $5K chip and one red chip he puts down 2 red chips worth only ten dollars
of course, when he wins he wins he makes sure the croupier saw the $5K chip and he wins $10,010
not a clear upload but still fun to watch - the roulette scam starts at 5:20 into the vid
pretty strong scam in roulette IMO he calls "Savannah"
he places one $5K chip and on red chip on one of the column bets that pays 2/1.
the red chip is forwardly placed so the croupier can't see the $5K chip which is behind it and underneath
he has a drink in his hand and is looking really drunk
if the bet loses he pulls the 2 chips back and puts them in his pocket
if the dealer catches him and tells him to put it back he goes into a drunk routine
he says "I'm sorry, I'm sorry I didn't know the bet lost" and reaches into his pocket and puts the chips back on the losing bet where they were
but instead of one $5K chip and one red chip he puts down 2 red chips worth only ten dollars
of course, when he wins he wins he makes sure the croupier saw the $5K chip and he wins $10,010
not a clear upload but still fun to watch - the roulette scam starts at 5:20 into the vid
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
