Suprising6
Suprising6
Joined: Dec 21, 2012
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February 28th, 2018 at 8:44:21 AM permalink
HI,

Would it be profitable and is it possible to do the following?

Two people, $500 each, one betting pass line and other don't pass. The amount of free play you win can then be split and used to try and make profit.
Romes
Romes
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
February 28th, 2018 at 9:19:01 AM permalink
Quote: Suprising6

HI,

Would it be profitable and is it possible to do the following?

Two people, $500 each, one betting pass line and other don't pass. The amount of free play you win can then be split and used to try and make profit.

Low variance, but not profitable (unless you always have FP but then it's profitable because of the FP, not your offsetting bets). When you bet pass and don't pass you STILL LOSE to the come out 12 (1/36 = .0278... about 2.8% HE). So you're actually exposing your FP to a WORSE house edge by doing this, rather than just playing it on the pass or the don't pass separately.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Mission146
Mission146
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February 28th, 2018 at 9:25:41 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Low variance, but not profitable (unless you always have FP but then it's profitable because of the FP, not your offsetting bets). When you bet pass and don't pass you STILL LOSE to the come out 12 (1/36 = .0278... about 2.8% HE). So you're actually exposing your FP to a WORSE house edge by doing this, rather than just playing it on the pass or the don't pass separately.



I agree with you in principle, except he said that there are two different people, so presumably each of the two would be getting Free Play. It's really just a question of if the amount of Free Play to be had exceeds expected loss and that's probably going to come down to expected coin-in. Though they would eat a greater House Edge and Expected Loss, a Doey-Don't with a CO 12 Hedge might not be entirely inappropriate to reduce Variance if they have a positive Free Play angle that requires a certain amount of coin-in be met.
Vultures can't be choosers.
RS
RS
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February 28th, 2018 at 9:46:43 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Low variance, but not profitable (unless you always have FP but then it's profitable because of the FP, not your offsetting bets). When you bet pass and don't pass you STILL LOSE to the come out 12 (1/36 = .0278... about 2.8% HE). So you're actually exposing your FP to a WORSE house edge by doing this, rather than just playing it on the pass or the don't pass separately.


It's actually 0.5/36, because they only lose half of their total bet. So it's 1.3888% expected loss of total freeplay.

Is it profitable? Well yeah, but that's because you have freeplay, not because of your method of playing it off.
Joeman
Joeman 
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February 28th, 2018 at 10:18:36 AM permalink
OP, I think what we're saying here is that your strategy will lose on average $13.89 per resolved bet ($500 on pass, $500 on don't pass). So, it is only profitable if you are receiving more than $14.09 in free play per bet.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
klimate10
klimate10
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February 28th, 2018 at 11:03:19 AM permalink
The answer is that it is possible, but you have to find the very rare situation where there is a positive player EV. If youíre playing a negative EV game, then opposing betting just doubles your loss rate and, with two players, dilutes your comps between two people.

I once had a host offer me a very generous comp, loss rebate, and free chip deal if I agreed to play. Iím pretty sure the deal resulted in a positive EV for me, assuming I didnít lose discipline and go play roulette or slots, or extend the trip.

My thought was that I could reduce the variance if I introduced a friend and we each bet light and dark side accordingly, and then split the loss rebate. The real gamble was the amount of the loss rebate, as you are hoping that one side has an enormous win and the other side has a corresponding enormous loss, resulting in a bigger loss rebate. If both sides win and lose equally, then the free chips get eaten up by how often the 12 appears on the come out roll, resulting in one unit lost. The way the host was compensated, he didnít really care.

So I called up my acquaintance, who was actually a member of this board, who I also wonít out, but he was too much of a princess and didnít want to play any where but the beautiful confines of Caesars or Wynn, or whatever big casino was in vogue at the time. So I ended up playing it straight up myself for a long time, until the host got fired.
RogerKint
RogerKint
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February 28th, 2018 at 11:06:06 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

The answer is that it is possible, but you have to find the very rare situation where there is a positive player EV. If youíre playing a negative EV game, then opposing betting just doubles your loss rate and, with two players, dilutes your comps between two people.

I once had a host offer me a very generous comp, loss rebate, and free chip deal if I agreed to play. Iím pretty sure the deal resulted in a positive EV for me, assuming I didnít lose discipline and go play roulette or slots, or extend the trip.

My thought was that I could reduce the variance if I introduced a friend and we each bet light and dark side accordingly, and then split the loss rebate. The real gamble was the amount of the loss rebate, as you are hoping that one side has an enormous win and the other side has a corresponding enormous loss, resulting in a bigger loss rebate. If both sides win and lose equally, then the free chips get eaten up by how often the 12 appears on the come out roll, resulting in one unit lost. The way the host was compensated, he didnít really care.

So I called up my acquaintance, who was actually a member of this board, who I also wonít out, but he was too much of a princess and didnít want to play any where but the beautiful confines of Caesars or Wynn, or whatever big casino was in vogue at the time. So I ended up playing it straight up myself for a long time, until the host got fired.



Call me next time. I'm so down. Btw I have no money so I'll have to use yours :)
100% risk of ruin
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 28th, 2018 at 12:23:16 PM permalink
if it isn't profitable playing it one way, rightside or darkside, it isn't profitable doing the doey don't. Whatever it is, they actually owe you the full amount you are betting in freeplay they have promised - for the full $1000 dollars each bet in this case. You are cheating them out of nothing. It is not cheating.

Though you might find casino personnel who think it is cheating.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darkoz
darkoz
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February 28th, 2018 at 1:00:11 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

if it isn't profitable playing it one way, rightside or darkside, it isn't profitable doing the doey don't. Whatever it is, they actually owe you the full amount you are betting in freeplay they have promised - for the full $1000 dollars each bet in this case. You are cheating them out of nothing. It is not cheating.

Though you might find casino personnel who think it is cheating.



There is a way to make it possible to profit and yes casino personnel definitely consider it cheating

That said the law says its not cheating so what casino personnel believe is moot. If they believe its cheating to wear pink shirts while playing craps that doesnt make it so
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 28th, 2018 at 1:40:46 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

There is a way to make it possible to profit



I have said before I am 'all ears' but alas it remains top secret, even though we have a private message system here.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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