Winning is my drug
Quote: beachbumbabsI don't remember that particular promotion, but I was fascinated with his ads. They were in Parade Magazine and TV Guide for years iN the 70s aand 80s. It was like, 3 nights in the hotel, 300 in slot tokens, buffet tickets, $99 for a family of 4.
I took advantage of his offers a couple of times. One of them was on my honeymoon January of 1991
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13I took advantage of his offers a couple of times. One of them was on my honeymoon January of 1991
ZCore13
I ran across a picture floating around of a couple who got married at a CRAPS table.
Sounds like one of the stunts a guy like this Stupak would pull. Where was this, the Strato?
Quote: TomGIf Axel doesn’t want to take that bet, I will gladly take it for $10,000
What is the bet?
Quote: horseI ran across a picture floating around of a couple who got married at a CRAPS table.
Sounds like one of the stunts a guy like this Stupak would pull. Where was this, the Strato?
It was called "Vegas World" at the time.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13It was called "Vegas World" at the time.
ZCore13
Thanks. Before my time I guess. Must be the Stratosphere today then
Quote: horseWhen I signed up earlier in the month I recall a statement in the Welcome part of the email from the forum host that said something to the effect that "gambling systems are useless and never work".
I take a very small exception to that.
These people who develop their methods; how many dissers actually read through, talk through, and thoroughly understand or try said systems?
While I agree conventional wisdom and math say bs right off the bat, there could actually be one or two gamblers out there who have come up with, not a crazy system for the masses, but something that somehow, someway works for them and them only because of their quirky personality or the unusual way their brain works or whatever. It's not totally out of the question.
That's why these forum bets are zero in value for all but the claimant IF they ever happen. Who knows if the guy quits the moment he gets ahead by betting a progression or not? He wins/you lose. And he may well do that time and again, which would lead to his claim of "I always win". How many of us could truly play like that? Is it even worth our time? Maybe it is to him, which does make him somewhat special, although his "gambling discovery" is not for the masses.
So why waste your time with this?
You'd have to read the archives, but there are dozens, if not hundreds, of threads on nearly every game casinos offer, systems have been proposed, evaluated, computed, debunked, and/or tested, sometimes in person. It's kind of a specialty of this forum from Mike on through very experienced and professional math guys, designers, programmers, and players. Hasn't been as frequently as when I joined, but you can read 300 pages of discussion on Ahigh's dice setting experiments, for example.
As to whether it's worth it, guess.that's up to the member. Some have a hobby and get into the minutia, some have a financial interest, some just like to argue. So it's worth about whatever someone wants to value it. Worth nothing, block the thread. Worth nothing conceptually, block the sub-forum.
There's a corellary to the "all systems are worthless" theorum that says, "no worthy system, if any, is going to be sold or exposed on an internet forum". If somebody has something, why on earth would they talk about it or even sell it? If there IS something to it, they're just poisoning the well by spreading the word, which means the casinos will take countermeasures and spoil it for them and everyone else. Keep it to yourself and be Scrooge McDuck with piles of cash big enough to swim in.
So if a system gets proposed, usually it comes down to mistaken math, hucksters/con men, or luck making something look like it might work beyond a few run-good sessions. Somebody invents the Martingale every week.
Quote: horseI ran across a picture floating around of a couple who got married at a CRAPS table.
Sounds like one of the stunts a guy like this Stupak would pull. Where was this, the Strato?
Wasn't that Mr 18 yo's in a row? At Caesars?
It was indeed Alan M in one of his marriages in 2006.Quote: DeMangoWasn't that Mr 18 yo's in a row? At Caesars?
Quote: AxelWolfI cant make a bet until I know what he's claiming.
I'm not greedy, I'm willing to split some action with you or anyone interested, assuming we can come up with something feasible.
"The terms just have to be consistent with WatchMeWin’s claims"
It seems to me he is claiming he never has a losing session.
So how did we get here? Without getting too deep into the genesis of the bantering from board members, which has escalated my desire to post more of my opinions and experiences regarding my style of play and aptitude for winning predominantly in craps. I initially voiced my opinion on how to consistently win in craps based upon my experience over the past 25 years of playing. Ive figured out what works for me and I have clearly spelled out how I do it. It is incomprehensible to many that someone can win on a consistent basis in a game that has negative EV and millions of players have failed to succeed in.
As I have mentioned before, the intricacies of who, what, when, where, and why, with respect to size of bets,timing of increasing and decreasing bets, crowded/negative tables, rhythm of the game, discipline, management, knowledge, etc , are all factors which can not be taught or bottled up in a jar to sell... therefore the notion that I am looking to sell something can be eliminated. The idea that I would be trying to con someone into something is not who I am nor is it my intention or character. Ill leave that for Trump.
What I am interested in is winning. Perhaps I have been perceived as a bit braggadocious with my winning posts... or to many full of s#%^, but the fact of the matter is that it is real. I dont mean to come off as an arrogant dude. Im a player that has had amazing experiences over the years with casinos and gaming... in all aspects! I wish everyone would win and beat the casinos... probably the greatest edge the casinos have is the fact that 99% of the people that gamble in casinos don't know when to say when and leave when they are ahead with even a modest W.
Notwithstanding the aforementioned... Ax, I never said that I never lose. I said that I win a great % of the time... and the times I do lose, the losses do not exceed my prior winnings. Here is what I will claim for any bet we have... which will have to take place in Vegas next time I am in town... and it will be with just Ax for the time being as he is the guy that I have come to trust so far... as ironic as that may seem since he is the one guy that has come at me from the get go. haha
- I will win 80% of the time I play a session. 10 sessions should suffice while Im in town. So 8 out of 10 sessions will be Wins.
- A win is defined as profiting 26.5% of my buy-in bank roll on each session. I plan to buy in 1000 each session. Therefore, I will need to win at least 265 by the time I color up and announce that that particular session is closed. I can choose to stop at any time... but in order to have a successful win, I need to have profited 265 on the session at color up. This is what I will call EBATA - Earnings Before Any Tips Awarded.
- If I lose my 1000 in a session.. then that session will be considered a Loss.
- If I lose more than 2 sessions, then I will consider myself defeated in this event.
- If I win at least 8 sessions, then I will consider myself victorious in this event. (if you do the math you will see that if I were to win the minimum 265 in 8 sessions (2120), this will exceed any losses I would incur if I were to lose 2 sessions (2000). Therefore I feel the numbers are relevant with respect to % win vs number of sessions.
Since I have been mocked and scorn repeatedly with claims and accusations that Im full of it and that it is not possible to win consistently as stated, I feel that there should be a multiple on my risk wager as Im a huge underdog and the house is always the favorite. Would 5x - 10x sound fair? I will put up 1000 to your 5000-10,000. Since this is an impossible task.. it is easy money for you. Money in the Bank! I cant get lucky that many times. I will stay hydrated and have lots of energy, dont worry. You mentioned that you will match my win / loss from my sessions as well... and vice versa and dollar for dollar value.
Just thinking out loud... as you came after me first.
Quote: WatchMeWin
- I will win 80% of the time I play a session. 10 sessions should suffice while Im in town. So 8 out of 10 sessions will be Wins.
- A win is defined as profiting 26.5% of my buy-in bank roll on each session. I plan to buy in 1000 each session. Therefore, I will need to win at least 265 by the time I color up and announce that that particular session is closed. I can choose to stop at any time... but in order to have a successful win, I need to have profited 265 on the session at color up. This is what I will call EBATA - Earnings Before Any Tips Awarded.
- If I lose my 1000 in a session.. then that session will be considered a Loss.
- If I lose more than 2 sessions, then I will consider myself defeated in this event.
- If I win at least 8 sessions, then I will consider myself victorious in this event. (if you do the math you will see that if I were to win the minimum 265 in 8 sessions (2120), this will exceed any losses I would incur if I were to lose 2 sessions (2000). Therefore I feel the numbers are relevant with respect to % win vs number of sessions.
Since I have been mocked and scorn repeatedly with claims and accusations that Im full of it and that it is not possible to win consistently as stated, I feel that there should be a multiple on my risk wager as Im a HUGE UNDERDOG and the house is always the favorite. Would 5x - 10x sound fair? I will put up 1000 to your 5000-10,000. Since this is an impossible task.. it is easy money for you. Money in the Bank! I cant get lucky that many times. I will stay hydrated and have lots of energy, dont worry. You mentioned that you will match my win / loss from my sessions as well... and vice versa and dollar for dollar value.
for any person to win $2,120 before losing $3,000 making the lowest house edge bets at craps does not make anybody a HUGE UNDERDOG. it would make anybody a HUGE FAVORITE and it would prove nothing. And you want to get paid 5 or 10/1 for that proposition? You must think people here are stupid.
Quote: lilredroosterfor any person to win $2,120 before losing $3,000 making the lowest house edge bets at craps does not make anybody a HUGE UNDERDOG. it would make anybody a HUGE FAVORITE and it would prove nothing. You want to get paid 5 or 10/1 for that proposition? You must think people here are stupid.
You are misguided. You think that someone to win consistently 80% of the time in a game that has Neg EV.... and the board has already stated that it is impossible to consistently win, you think that guy is a favorite? Im not winning the 2120 at any given point, Im consistently and methodically winning over and over which is the point. You must be smoking tonight! The house is an underdog? haha Thanks for the complement. I guess I can do it after all !
beachb, I did read about a few of the system people here earlier, and I agree most of them (all those I read about) are much more than probably either selling something, they like arguing, or they come to forums as a method of trying to turn others.
But I don't believe all of them do. Some may in fact have something only fit for them, their abilities, and/or their intelligence level. We can't just write them all off to that Welcome statement unless they are all understood thoroughly, explained in detail, questions answered, and the system is proven one way or the other in front of doubters and disbelievers.
I have not found one yet, but I believe a few may be out there just as much as I believe there is other intelligent life in this universe.
What I don't believe in is that Welcome statement. If someone said with such certainty that there is no God, would THAT statement pass the 100% truthful test?
Quote: WatchMeWinYou are misguided. You think that someone to win consistently 80% of the time in a game that has Neg EV.... and the board has already stated that it is impossible to consistently win, you think that guy is a favorite? Im not winning the 2120 at any given point, Im consistently and methodically winning over and over which is the point. You must be smoking tonight! The house is an underdog? haha Thanks for the complement. I guess I can do it after all !
Out of 20 times:
If you won the bet 11 times you would win $23,320
If you lost the bet 9 times you would lose $27,000.
You would win your ridiculous proposition 55% of the time but you would lose money overall on your actual game betting.
And you think somebody here is stupid enough to pay you 5 to 10/1 for that?
Quote: WatchMeWin
- I will win 80% of the time I play a session. 10 sessions should suffice while Im in town. So 8 out of 10 sessions will be Wins.
- A win is defined as profiting 26.5% of my buy-in bank roll on each session. I plan to buy in 1000 each session. Therefore, I will need to win at least 265 by the time I color up and announce that that particular session is closed.
- If I lose my 1000 in a session.. then that session will be considered a Loss.
- If I lose more than 2 sessions, then I will consider myself defeated in this event.
- If I win at least 8 sessions, then I will consider myself victorious in this event. (if you do the math you will see that if I were to win the minimum 265 in 8 sessions (2120), this will exceed any losses I would incur if I were to lose 2 sessions (200
Since I have been mocked and scorn repeatedly with claims and accusations that Im full of it and that it is not possible to win consistently as stated, I feel that there should be a multiple on my risk wager as Im a huge underdog and the house is always the favorite. Would 5x - 10x sound fair? I will put up 1000 to your 5000-10,000. Since this is an impossible task.. it is easy money for you. Money in the Bank! I cant get lucky that many times. I will stay hydrated and have lots of energy, dont worry. You mentioned that you will match my win / loss from my sessions as well... and vice versa and dollar for dollar value.
Just thinking out loud... as you came after me first.
Just thinking out loud. I agree with the part where you said something about "full of s#%^"
So. thinking aloud myself. Not having any interest in your playing style:-
A hit and run session on a game with low house edge, where you walk away with either 26.5% profit or total session loss will have a probability of success of 79%
OnceDear's rule of thumb
With a bit of help from Bernoulli trials ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial )
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning all 10 sessions is 0.79^10 = 9.5%
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning exactly 9 sessions is (10!/(9!*1!))*0.79^9*(1-.79)^1 = 25.2%
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning exactly 8 sessions is (10!/(8!*2!))*0.79^8*(1-.79)^2 = 30.1%
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning at least 8 sessions is 9.5+25.2+30.1=64.8%
full table of outcomes...
| Wins | Probability | Profit | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.0946827608262685 | 2650 | 250.909316189612 |
| 9 | 0.251688351563499 | 1385 | 348.588366915445 |
| 8 | 0.301070243325957 | 120 | 36.1284291991149 |
| 7 | 0.213416881344982 | -1145 | -244.362329140005 |
| 6 | 0.0992793720180771 | -2410 | -239.263286563566 |
| 5 | 0.031668862972855 | -3675 | -116.383071425242 |
| 4 | 0.00701525445601218 | -4940 | -34.6553570127002 |
| 3 | 0.00106560827179932 | -6205 | -6.61209932651477 |
| 2 | 0.0001062236093724 | -7470 | -0.79349036201183 |
| 1 | 6.27481236798988E-06 | -8735 | -0.0548104860343916 |
| 0 | 1.6679880978201E-07 | -10000 | -0.0016679880978201 |
Remember, I asserted house edge was negligible and I stick with that assertion.
So, ignoring the modest house edge, which is not unreasonable for such short sessions, you have approaching a 64.8% probability of winning your proposition bet. In fact the very most likely eventuality over 10 sessions is that you will win exactly 8 sessions. That has whopping 30% probability on its own.
So asking for odds was very cheeky and no-one here would be stupid enough to even give you even money let alone multiple odds, since you are mathematically much more likely to win the prop bet than lose it.
Doesn't mean you are on to anything though. there is no paradox here. You ARE LIKELY to win more sessions than lose. You are less than 50% likely to double your lifetime bankroll than you are to lose it.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13He's not going to understand that math. His hit and run theory always nets him positive results. He has 25 years of experience.
ZCore13
Maybe he is perfectly au fait with the maths and expects some idiot to rock up and give him odds on his prop bet.
But I concur, maths is not in his toolbox, only some good variance, some selective memory and some cockiness,
The maths is there with enough simple to understand background to warn him that he is on the road to certain ruin.
Frankly I don't care about his future welfare, but I hope I've given enough mathematically challenged newbies a fighting chance of not replicating the error of his ways.
Quote: WatchMeWinand it will be with just Ax for the time being as he is the guy that I have come to trust so far... as ironic as that may seem since he is the one guy that has come at me from the get go. haha
Offering the bet to only one person who wouldn't have any interest under your terms shows that you must not be telling everything. Why not open up a reasonable offer to everyone?
Quote: Zcore13He's not going to understand that math. His hit and run theory always nets him positive results. He has 25 years of experience.
ZCore13
And why these people waste their time gloating about it instead of making MORE money is beyond me.
In WatchMeWin's alternative reality, there is no rule that says that what you place down as a wager is absolutely and directly proportional to what you can expect to pick up. We fools just don't understand that and that's why we could never succeed in replicating his success. Got to know when to run and don't be greedy.Quote: IbeatyouracesAnd why these people waste their time gloating about it instead of making MORE money is beyond me.
If we stood at the same table as him and replicated his bets exactly, except 100 times as much from our bankroll which is 100 times as much as his, then we would jinx influence the table. He doesn't bet bigger for the same reason.
But he's not dumb*. He gets his action in as more frequent, modest length sessions.
I expect he would withdraw from the table if we ever messed up his universe in that way.
All he has is the gloat, and the few dollars he's won over his extensive time at the table.
* Bless him. He will learn.
What about the sessions that fall in between?
Quote: WatchMeWinIf anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.
If... I were in your location...
and if . . . You would accept the wager over 10 'experiments' ( that's 100 sessions for the math challenged )
and if . . . I trusted you
and if . . . You would put $50,000 of your money against $10,000 of my money EACH TIME
and if . . . I could be bothered, which I can't,
I'd be delighted to bank that bet.
The maths just do stack up. It really is quite likely that 8 or more sessions out of 10 would be won.
but WMW doesn't do maths, even when it's done for him, he just brushes it off as irrelevant.
Maybe some US based member would like to take up WMW's challenge..
I take it that WMW read this. https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1677
Quote: OnceDearIf... I were in your location...
and if . . . You would accept the wager over 10 'experiments' ( that's 100 sessions for the math challenged )
and if . . . I trusted you
and if . . . You would put $50,000 of your money against $10,000 of my money EACH TIME
and if . . . I could be bothered, which I can't,
I'd be delighted to bank that bet.
The maths just do stack up. It really is quite likely that 8 or more sessions out of 10 would be won.
but WMW doesn't do maths, even when it's done for him, he just brushes it off as irrelevant.
Maybe some US based member would like to take up WMW's challenge..
I take it that WMW read this. https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1677
That is a nice blog and I appreciate you referencing my termed 'hit n run' play. 35 consecutive wins is a great feat but you were not winning at least 26.5% each session.. not even close. Regardless of how much was won or not, the initial point I was making, when I first started posting about playing craps, is that my belief and my experience tells me that you need to hit n run if you are going to play. Your blog proves my point to a degree. Although it is considered a small sample and in the long hall you say you will get crushed.... I say you are smart enough and disciplined enough to keep it going.
Quote: WatchMeWinThat is a nice blog and I appreciate you referencing my termed 'hit n run' play. 35 consecutive wins is a great feat but you were not winning at least 26.5% each session.. not even close. Regardless of how much was won or not, the initial point I was making, when I first started posting about playing craps, is that my belief and my experience tells me that you need to hit n run if you are going to play. Your blog proves my point to a degree. Although it is considered a small sample and in the long hall you say you will get crushed.... I say you are smart enough and disciplined enough to keep it going.
Cheers WMW,
I really do enjoy playing hit and run for amusement. I also do frequently bank a profit. But it's only about amusement, from an entertainment budget that I won early on.
I am smart enough and disciplined enough to keep it going. I'm also smart enough to not take it seriously and not waste significant money on it. That's the bit you need to learn: It's not sustainable, not even in a medium haul.
You can, and probably have, had lots of winning sessions and for all I know it's made you rich, in which case good for you. It can be amusing to repeat week in week out 'Look at me I keep winning' But it's only right that we members here try to warn you that soon enough you will, like many others before you, just go quiet and fade away on the forum as you start to feel the reality kick in.
I honestly think that you believe your discipline is enough. That's why I used nice simple maths to PROVE that your 80% win rate is perfectly reasonable and ordinary. Then I went on to use the same maths to prove you are heading for ruin. Check my calculations and assessments for yourself. Also work through and understand my assessment of your prop bet.
Anyway, Have a happy and prosperous new year. May you have the sort of luck that you need.
Quote: WatchMeWinIf anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.
I'll take that bet! I'll be in Las Vegas February 9-13. Pick an amount you would like to bet. If you are willing to let The Wizard escrow our bets and be the judge I think I can convince him to do so. I do assure you I have no particular ability at craps, other than knowing the odds and house edge of the bets. You tell me how much you want to risk. I'll be available pretty much any time except dinner time 2/10 as that is GF, oops, fiancee's birthday.
Quote: SOOPOOI'll take that bet! I'll be in Las Vegas February 9-13. Pick an amount you would like to bet. If you are willing to let The Wizard escrow our bets and be the judge I think I can convince him to do so. I do assure you I have no particular ability at craps, other than knowing the odds and house edge of the bets. You tell me how much you want to risk. I'll be available pretty much any time except dinner time 2/10 as that is GF, oops, fiancee's birthday.
Here we go.... Soopoo realised that WMW is offering a great bet. I'd love to watch the spectacle.
Is anyone taking side bets on whether the challenge goes ahead? My money is on the 'no' Hopefully I've demonstrated to WMW that he was unwise to offer up the challenge.
Quote: OnceDearHere we go.... Soopoo realised that WMW is offering a great bet. I'd love to watch the spectacle.
Is anyone taking side bets on whether the challenge goes ahead? My money is on the 'no' Hopefully I've demonstrated to WMW that he was unwise to offer up the challenge.
Just based on watching what goes on here, I'd have to say fair odds would be .... well, let's see, there have been about a dozen of these don't-come-throughs and not one* stand-up-guy, that's infinity ... ummm, Wizard says he had one guy come through ... I'd take the small end of 50:1 even though it might be foolish.
*we did have a dice controller come through, but that is not a betting system thing.
Quote: WatchMeWinIf anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.
If everybody on the forum took that bet depending on the amount the guy would go bankrupt. Not that I'm wishing that on him. I'm not that cruel. But the thought of it is kind of amusing. Also, in his earlier post he said this about the odds he should get:
" Would 5x - 10x sound fair?"
Now on the other side of the bet the 6/1, 7/1, 8/1, 9/1 or 10/1 isn't being offered.
That's a real shame.
Quote: SOOPOOI'll take that bet! I'll be in Las Vegas February 9-13. Pick an amount you would like to bet. If you are willing to let The Wizard escrow our bets and be the judge I think I can convince him to do so. I do assure you I have no particular ability at craps, other than knowing the odds and house edge of the bets. You tell me how much you want to risk. I'll be available pretty much any time except dinner time 2/10 as that is GF, oops, fiancee's birthday.
I doubt I will be there the week of Feb 8 but let me know if you are on the east coast. What state are you in? You are validating my position that it is possible to win consistently. Im not saying it is impossible, im saying most people cannot do it for multiple reasons. If you can do it , that is great! I would love to see it and learn from your style of play. If it can give me a new angle and perspective on play, I welcome it. How do you plan to play craps in the 'event'? I told you my strategy. What is yours? I will put up 1000 to your 200. I only want the two of us on the table and perhaps Wizard and Ax if they want. I will monitor every play, bet and chip that you are engaged in while in your sessions. You will start off with 1000 buy in within each session. You will need to make at least 265 when you color up within that session and announce closed session. New sessions will start whenever you want with the same routine. The location will be decided at random mutually agreed upon casino. If you win at least 8 sessions out of 10, you win my 1000. If you do not win at least 8 sessions out of 10, I win your 200. I wish you luck if and when this occurs. I will gladly pay you for showing me the light and how your bright mind achieves this task.
That position is sound. It's also valueless and meaningless.Quote: WatchMeWinYou are validating my position that it is possible to win consistently.
Soopoo has to put at risk 3000 to the house. Make it worth his risk.Quote:I will put up 1000 to your 200.
But it won't happen, of course.
Quote: WatchMeWinIf anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.
I will take this bet. Let me know whenever you are in Las Vegas
Quote: TomGI will take this bet. Let me know whenever you are in Las Vegas
he plays on the east coast such as A.C.
you probably will want to fly out there if the stakes are big enough and you can get satisfactory verification
you should easily cover your expenses
I'm not a mathlete but I'm sure your edge on the bet is huge.
Quote: lilredroosterhe plays on the east coast such as A.C.
you probably will want to fly out there if the stakes are big enough and you can get satisfactory verification
you should easily cover your expenses
I'm not a mathlete but I'm sure your edge on the bet is huge.
Are you at least 21?
Quote: TomGI will take this bet. Let me know whenever you are in Las Vegas
What bet? You want to bet on SooPoo or you want to play craps yourself and bet you can win?
Quote: WatchMeWinAre you at least 21?
I'm lazy and don't need the money.
All my life I chased $$$$.
Now my goal in life is to stop caring about money.
Screw money.
I only enjoy trying to figure out the game/angle aspects of speculation.
Quote: WatchMeWinIf anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.
Quote: MaxPen
New year new me, my motto 4 lyfe:
My claim is not that I have any special ability, but rather that ANYONE only looking to win 265 with a starting bankroll of 1000 can do so at craps around 70-75% of the time. So to do so 8 out of 10 times although not 50%, would happen way more frequently than 20%, and you are giving me 5-1 odds.
I know those who want the bet to happen would not want me to post this, but my plan would be to make a single pass line or don't pass bet for $265. If I win, done. If I lose next bet is 530. If I win, done. If I lose I'll bet the 205 and try and double it, then bet 90 to get to 500. Then double it or lose it all. If I go from 410 to 320..... You get the idea.
The smarter math minds on the forum can figure out what my EV is assuming we bet my $1000 against your $5000, as an example. I'm probably losing a few hundred by having to play a negative EV game, but probably getting a few thousand in EV from you.
If you can make it to Buffalo the celebratory dinner (for either you or me!) is on me. Duffs chicken wings are worth the flight. It is not impossible that I could fly to AC but I have a bunch of trips planned already and the earliest I could really even consider it would be April.
All casinos have on all shifts a deputy of the county clerk on duty who can issue a marriage license and start that three hour clock.Quote: horseI ran across a picture floating around of a couple who got married at a CRAPS table.
There was a show 'cabbie confidentials' where, not knowing he was being filmed, a guy proposed to his girlfriend. Upon arriving at their destination casino the driver went in and contacted a supervisor who arranged for the champagne etc. Its always a good opportunity for a casino.
Now as to All Systems Don't Work.... of course that is nonsense. All systems will work sometime and fail at other times. As to seminars on winning systems, they are profitable for the hucksters only and any huckster could make more money applying system in the high limit room than renting out a conference room for teaching some seminar.
Many 'track records' are bogus. Years ago a Vegas huckster was always tweeting his win and loss record at a variety of games in a variety of casinos when in fact he spent his time at a low limit poker table all day long.
Hi Soopoo, I did most of the maths for you HERE, though i assumed you were playing with negligible edge.Quote: SOOPOOI live and play in Buffalo. I rarely play craps, and will do so as a social thing. Last time I played I was with BBB and others in North Carolina for the eclipse in August.
My claim is not that I have any special ability, but rather that ANYONE only looking to win 265 with a starting bankroll of 1000 can do so at craps around 70-75% of the time. So to do so 8 out of 10 times although not 50%, would happen way more frequently than 20%, and you are giving me 5-1 odds.
I know those who want the bet to happen would not want me to post this, but my plan would be to make a single pass line or don't pass bet for $265. If I win, done. If I lose next bet is 530. If I win, done. If I lose I'll bet the 205 and try and double it, then bet 90 to get to 500. Then double it or lose it all. If I go from 410 to 320..... You get the idea.
The smarter math minds on the forum can figure out what my EV is assuming we bet my $1000 against your $5000, as an example. I'm probably losing a few hundred by having to play a negative EV game, but probably getting a few thousand in EV from you.
If you can make it to Buffalo the celebratory dinner (for either you or me!) is on me. Duffs chicken wings are worth the flight. It is not impossible that I could fly to AC but I have a bunch of trips planned already and the earliest I could really even consider it would be April.
If you take the challenge, you MUST ensure that in none of your sessions is there any chance of exceeding your win target, because to do so would be to take on significant unneeded risk of not achieving your win goal.
You should have about 64% probability of winning at least 8 sessions.
Also, of course, define the start of each set of ten sessions. If, from that point onwards you lose 3 sessions before winning 8, you should concede that 'set of ten' and settle up as there is risk and no value in playing any more sessions from that set.
But, of course, it won't happen.
Huh? You only risk any thing on the succeeding rolls that LOSE. If that next roll wins, you are still in the plus column.Quote: OnceDearthat in none of your sessions is there any chance of exceeding your win target, because to do so would be to take on significant unneeded risk of not achieving your win goal. .
Quote: OnceDearHi Soopoo, I did most of the maths for you HERE, though i assumed you were playing with negligible edge.
If you take the challenge, you MUST ensure that in none of your sessions is there any chance of exceeding your win target, because to do so would be to take on significant unneeded risk of not achieving your win goal.
You should have about 64% probability of winning at least 8 sessions.
Also, of course, define the start of each set of ten sessions. If, from that point onwards you lose 3 sessions before winning 8, you should concede that 'set of ten' and settle up as there is risk and no value in playing any more sessions from that set.
But, of course, it won't happen.
Thanks for helping, but I am pretty sure you have made some mistake in your calculations. In a negative EV game it should be impossible to win 265 8 times out of ten more than half the time while losing 1000 2 times out of ten less than half of the time. Even in a totally fair game the same is true.
I am aware that I will always bet the minimum to win exactly enough to get my bankroll to 1265.
Of course if I lose 3 I'm done. No need to remind me of that! And if I win the first 8, same thing.....
I also think when you figure out your error, you should not use a 50-50 game, as craps is not. I'll be playing against a 1+% house edge with either bet, and it definitely makes a difference, although not insurmountable.
I did make a mistake in the strategy I posted in that when betting after initial losses I was going for 1000, not 1265. If the bet occurs, I would not make that mistake. It is possible someone smarter than me might suggest a lower pass line bet, or don't pass bet, to then take advantage of possible 'free' odds bets. That would likely require a greater math calculating ability than I have.
I confess I don't know or play craps, so your game plan means little to me. However to maximise your probability of a successful session to 79%, you must eliminate any probability of significantly exceeding your target. Eg. if you were martingaling on an even money bet and only needed to win another $10 to hit target, you would obviously not stake more than $10 or you would be introducing possibility of overshooting target at the cost of reduced possibility of achieving it later if needed.Quote: FleaStiffHuh? You only risk any thing on the succeeding rolls that LOSE. If that next roll wins, you are still in the plus column.
Quote: OnceDearI confess I don't know or play craps, so your game plan means little to me. However to maximise your probability of a successful session to 79%, you must eliminate any probability of significantly exceeding your target. Eg. if you were martingaling on an even money bet and only needed to win another $10 to hit target, you would obviously not stake more than $10 or you would be introducing possibility of overshooting target at the cost of reduced possibility of achieving it later if needed.
I know that! Trust me.......
Nope. Maths is right, if counter intuitive. It's 64.8% in a fair game. Don't overlook that you could lose 3. The alternative to winning 8 or more times is losing 3 or more times, not 2.Quote: SOOPOO
Thanks for helping, but I am pretty sure you have made some mistake in your calculations. In a negative EV game it should be impossible to win 265 8 times out of ten more than half the time while losing 1000 2 times out of ten less than half of the time. Even in a totally fair game the same is true.
Quote: OnceDearNope. Maths is right, if counter intuitive. It's 64.8% in a fair game. Don't overlook that you could lose 3. The alternative to winning 8 or more times is losing 3 or more times, not 2.
We shall see who is correct. I'll solicit some others to see if they agree with you or me.
Please do. I have been known to make maths errors. I acknowledge there is some rounding in my table, but the probability column does add up to one, as expected.Quote: SOOPOOWe shall see who is correct. I'll solicit some others to see if they agree with you or me.
