WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 31st, 2016 at 7:36:37 AM permalink
Match play is great... however many casinos are doing away with them now because players have gotten smart. I typically get 300 in match play per visit at places I get rated. I could take the 135 guarantee money or sometimes I break it down to 100 increments. Win 45 on the first two match plays. They on the third 100 match play I put it on the dont pass, then 160 across the box numbers. The only way I lose is if the point is made buck shot...(but i already won 90 previously, so I really cant lose overall). Otherwise, the first number rolled I press whatever the point is... now I cant lose and have a free shot for a long roll. Ill press to the heavens and take in here and there.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 31st, 2016 at 7:42:41 AM permalink
Harrahs started to disallow players to play the pass and dont pass with match play.... what a bunch of bs. They shouldnt send out the match play promotions if they are scared of the way people bet it.

However, casinos should know that regardless of how the player uses his/her match play, they are getting the players on property, which should be and typically is the number one goal of any promotion. Even if the player takes in free money, the odds are that he/she will give it back and then some while on property.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 31st, 2016 at 8:13:13 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Harrahs started to disallow players to play the pass and dont pass with match play.... what a bunch of bs. They shouldnt send out the match play promotions if they are scared of the way people bet it.

However, casinos should know that regardless of how the player uses his/her match play, they are getting the players on property, which should be and typically is the number one goal of any promotion. Even if the player takes in free money, the odds are that he/she will give it back and then some while on property.

Why in gods name would a expert winning craps player like yourself need to hedge your bets and lock up a few hundred bucks? Isn't that dumb to do if it irks the casino and possibly makes them discontinue giving out match play? Especially if you are just going to take that money and play it on craps anyways(face palm).

I have seen this many times before. A guy goes to the roulette table(or whatever) and hedges his match play. Then win or lose he buys in and starts betting "normal". I'm thinking...what's the point? I then realize its some kind of mental thing and poor understanding of gambling that coincides with gamblers fallacy.

I would understand if it was a huge match play above your comfort level, or if you didn't plan on playing craps again.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
monet0412
monet0412
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December 31st, 2016 at 8:42:17 AM permalink
Someone told me long ago that Hedging was never a good idea. Sure it seems good in your mind cause your thinking you can't lose but in the long run you are hemorrhaging cash like you can't believe. I know some sports bettors who bet 4 or 5 team parlays and when they have the 4 out of 5 they go and hedge the last game killing the return on the ticket! I usually have some smart a** remark about why in the world did you bet a 5 teamer if your gonna hedge once you get 4 out of 5? Why didn't you just bet a 4 teamer? Sometimes I see them when they make the bet before the games go off and I give them the needle saying: "Who cares? Your just gonna hedge the stupid ticket anyways!"

About hedging match plays or free bets or whatever. If you want to do that you don't have to be so damn obvious about it! You can get someone to help you bet the other side in dice or roulette but why on earth play those games when you can play Baccarat and not have to worry about the 12 or 0/00? Pretty simple when you have someone help you cause they are going to bet chips only covering the other side for you and you won't get slack because they are betting chips only. Do it when the table is busy and rotate through different shifts as well. Do it on grave when nobody gives a sh*t! Pick your spots, it isn't hard to spot some pit boss who is gonna give you trouble... those guys have a certain look about them :) !!
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 31st, 2016 at 9:08:08 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Why in gods name would a expert winning craps player like yourself need to hedge your bets and lock up a few hundred bucks? Isn't that dumb to do if it irks the casino and possibly makes them discontinue giving out match play? Especially if you are just going to take that money and play it on craps anyways(face palm).

I have seen this many times before. A guy goes to the roulette table(or whatever) and hedges his match play. Then win or lose he buys in and starts betting "normal". I'm thinking...what's the point? I then realize its some kind of mental thing and poor understanding of gambling that coincides with gamblers fallacy.

I would understand if it was a huge match play above your comfort level, or if you didn't plan on playing craps again.



Actually, the question is why in god's name would anyone give up free guaranteed money? To do otherwise would just be plain foolish... even for an expert as you say.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
TomG
TomG
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December 31st, 2016 at 9:13:15 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Actually, the question is why in god's name would anyone give up free guaranteed money?



Because you end up with less money overall. Virtually every casino game you must give up "guaranteed" money for a chance to win even more money
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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TomG
December 31st, 2016 at 9:20:52 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Someone told me long ago that Hedging was never a good idea. Sure it seems good in your mind cause your thinking you can't lose but in the long run you are hemorrhaging cash like you can't believe. I know some sports bettors who bet 4 or 5 team parlays and when they have the 4 out of 5 they go and hedge the last game killing the return on the ticket! I usually have some smart a** remark about why in the world did you bet a 5 teamer if your gonna hedge once you get 4 out of 5? Why didn't you just bet a 4 teamer? Sometimes I see them when they make the bet before the games go off and I give them the needle saying: "Who cares? Your just gonna hedge the stupid ticket anyways!"

About hedging match plays or free bets or whatever. If you want to do that you don't have to be so damn obvious about it! You can get someone to help you bet the other side in dice or roulette but why on earth play those games when you can play Baccarat and not have to worry about the 12 or 0/00? Pretty simple when you have someone help you cause they are going to bet chips only covering the other side for you and you won't get slack because they are betting chips only. Do it when the table is busy and rotate through different shifts as well. Do it on grave when nobody gives a sh*t! Pick your spots, it isn't hard to spot some pit boss who is gonna give you trouble... those guys have a certain look about them :) !!



Hedging on the last game in sports parlays ( 4 teams or more ) is smart because the odds increase exponentially to your favor after the 4th, 5th, 6th , etc games. On a 4 team parlay the payout is 10-1 and it goes up to 20-1 on a 5 teamer. Lets say you have a 5 teamer. the fifth game you pick of on monday night so you can hedge. If the first 4 win.... why on earth would you not hedge the last game and at least collect something for you work done on the first 4 games. If you bet 1000 on the parlay, it would pay 20k.. so after the first 4 games win, it would be wise to put say 9k on the opposite side and guarantee yourself 8k or 11k depending on who wins. If you bet all 5 teams for 1000, you would only win 5k if they all win. But if they all lose you will lose 5k. The risk/reward is quite different. There is a good chance you will go 3-2 or 2-3 and wind up being up 800 or down 1300.... so its not a big deal.

If you take the last game of 5 team parlay on mon night as a ml favorite, then if the first 4 win, you can take the dog ml hedge and make even more on the hedge ... but the 20-1 payout will not be as high either because of the ml favorite put into the parlay.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
monet0412
monet0412
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December 31st, 2016 at 10:12:18 AM permalink
I know that hedging can be the right play at times in the right circumstances but as a general rule it is always bad to hedge. The way I understand it for the long run and maximum return on almost any bet it is always costing you cash to hedge. I could be wrong because I am not usually in many hedging situations and as a rule I just don't hedge. I might change my mind after I see some of the smarter guys on this site show me with the math that I will make more cash in the long run if I hedge compared to if I don't hedge. As far as Match Play / Free Bets go I am certain that it is always better to play them for the full value. I am guessing your going to tell me I should sell my Free Play to the people who go around town and buy free play as well.

I was trying to be nice to these parlay bettors because the real question is why on Earth are you betting 4 and 5 Team Parlays? You know that you can't win in the long run you sap?
billryan
billryan
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December 31st, 2016 at 10:34:07 AM permalink
I believe there is a time and place to hedge, but doing so on match plays isn't it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
djatc
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December 31st, 2016 at 12:37:42 PM permalink
I only play my matchplays and freebets when the moon is at its highest peak, and the dealers name starts with a H. It wins all the time, almost every time.
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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 31st, 2016 at 12:38:52 PM permalink
locking in wins is arbitrage, not hedging
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TomG
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December 31st, 2016 at 3:17:56 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

why on earth would you not hedge the last game and at least collect something for you work done on the first 4 games.



Because most of us would rather win more money instead of less money.

Quote: WatchMeWin

If you bet 1000 on the parlay, it would pay 20k.. so after the first 4 games win, it would be wise to put say 9k on the opposite side and guarantee yourself 8k or 11k depending on who wins.



Which would be an average win of $9,500. Not hedging would give you an average win of $10,000.

Quote: WatchMeWin

There is a good chance you will go 3-2 or 2-3 and wind up being up 800 or down 1300.... so its not a big deal.



If $800 one way or $1300 the other is no big deal, why are you so concerned with hedging to give yourself $135?

If hedging is the right thing to do, why not just take a 20 team parlay ($10 to win $5 million) and bet the other side after every single game that the parlay is still alive?
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 31st, 2016 at 6:13:16 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Because most of us would rather win more money instead of less money.



Which would be an average win of $9,500. Not hedging would give you an average win of $10,000.



If $800 one way or $1300 the other is no big deal, why are you so concerned with hedging to give yourself $135?

If hedging is the right thing to do, why not just take a 20 team parlay ($10 to win $5 million) and bet the other side after every single game that the parlay is still alive?



Genius ! Ill take your advice!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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January 1st, 2017 at 1:40:22 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Match play is great... however many casinos are doing away with them now because players have gotten smart. I typically get 300 in match play per visit at places I get rated. I could take the 135 guarantee money or sometimes I break it down to 100 increments. Win 45 on the first two match plays. They on the third 100 match play I put it on the dont pass, then 160 across the box numbers. The only way I lose is if the point is made buck shot...(but i already won 90 previously, so I really cant lose overall). Otherwise, the first number rolled I press whatever the point is... now I cant lose and have a free shot for a long roll. Ill press to the heavens and take in here and there.

Then what? You go shopping at Aldis? If you're staying there anyways, casinos are just being anal. Obviously you earned them or they thought you earned them. What is worse are coupon restrictions like even money black jacks. Nobody likes that. If you want to be paid properly, have to make an unnecessary step playing at another table. Then you can't use them if someone else you don't even know is using them or forced one way. It's like bitching and nagging by the casino just to give you a headache.
I am a robot.
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