CHARTING A TABLE

Axel


Well, control, if that is the term you want to use, would mean that a person can go to the
table call 8 and hit an 8, call 9 and hit a 9.

That is dice control.



dicesetter

Axel, in addition, if you look at the last 2 rolls in my 76 round Thursday which
includes a 12 hand and a 13 hand, all the hands on Friday, which included
hands of 17,14,12,15,12,3 you will notice something that is almost identical in
each hand.... I wonder if you can find it, Math would not have a clue?????

Quote: dicesitter

Axel


Well, control, if that is the term you want to use, would mean that a person can go to the
table call 8 and hit an 8, call 9 and hit a 9.

That is dice control.



dicesetter

Axel, in addition, if you look at the last 2 rolls in my 76 round Thursday which
includes a 12 hand and a 13 hand, all the hands on Friday, which included
hands of 17,14,12,15,12,3 you will notice something that is almost identical in
each hand.... I wonder if you can find it, Math would not have a clue?????

You obviously started with 2 dice and hit twelve a few times, but twelve wasn't high enough for you, so you decided used 3 dice and that's how you rolled a seventeen, fourteen, fifteen and thirteen ☻.

Interesting that all had a one, on one of the dice.

What die was it left or right?

FFS, if you knew one of the dice was going to have a one come up you would get stupid rich.

Axel



I could not have gotten stupid rich last night....laughing..... I wish I had those practice rolls at the
casino. But in the end, my wife won so a happen wife means I can go fish this week.

dicesetter

PS I went way out on a limb here and assumed you understand what hand meant

Quote: dicesitter

You never answered my previously posed question about baccarat players who use betting methods/systems (excluding stuff like edge sorting)

Do you think guys like DMSR can beat baccarat.?

Quote: dicesitter

Axel



I could not have gotten stupid rich last night....laughing..... I wish I had those practice rolls at the
casino. But in the end, my wife won so a happen wife means I can go fish this week.

dicesetter

PS I went way out on a limb here and assumed you understand what hand meant

Am I not correct that on every roll a one showed up on one of the dice?

you should check that die for a bias.

Quote: AxelWolf

Am I not correct that on every roll a one showed up on one of the dice?

you should check that die for a bias.

Geez Axel.... He wasn't (OBVIOUSLY!!!!!) listing specific rolls.... He was listing length of rolls..... Your reading comprehension needs a refresher course..... (Golden Touch Reading Comprehension?)

This all comes down to a mistaken and very time-consuming exercise in assuming causality. Dicesitter's working theory is that by observing a few rolls and noting the relationship between the starting and ending orientation of the dice, he can adjust the initial orientation (set) of the dice and achieve his desired results over the next few rolls. On its face, it's not a terrible idea, but it's certainly disprovable and, if he were paying attention and being honest with himself, he should have disproven it by now. It's very easy for the human mind to spot correlations and patterns in random data, and it's instinctive for us to attribute those patterns to some causal factor. Many people see a streak of red at the roulette table and reason "red is hot, time to bet it" or "black is due, time to bet it." Neither are correct.

The OP in this thread, eclectic, has recently been asking about the average length of a hand and whether it is therefore reasonable to pull one's bets down somewhere prior to that length. The answer is no, it's not, because each roll is independent. Go ahead and pull your bets whenever you want, but it's a logical fallacy to make that decision based on statistics like the average length of a hand.

In the case of dice, and dicesitter's perception of a relationship between initial and ending dice orientation -- well, there may in fact be a perceivable correlation over the short term. In fact, that's almost guaranteed to happen! Here's an example: take a single die, with the one side face up and the two side facing you, and drop it on the carpet 12 times from a height of 3 feet, recording the results. The chances are small that you'll see exactly two of each face. Then take the same die, turn it a quarter turn to the left so the three is facing up (with the two still facing you) and drop it another 12 times. There will almost surely be a difference in distribution. Here's what I get from this experiment:

1 up, 2 facing me
6,1,3,6,4,6,1,3,3,6,4,5
In histogram form, that's:
1: 2
2: 0
3: 3
4: 2
5: 1
6: 4

3 up, 2 facing me
2,3,5,3,3,1,6,2,4,6,3,1
Histogram:
1: 2
2: 2
3: 4
4: 1
5: 1
6: 2

Okay, so what can you learn from that? It turns out, absolutely nothing. It may be tempting to notice "I rolled zero 2s when 1 was up, and two 2s when 3 was up" or "four 6s when 1 was up and four 3s when 3 was up", but that's just a correlation and -- say it with me -- "correlation does not imply causation." It is a mistake to assume that the reason the dice distribution changed is because the initial position was changed. That's certainly true if, as was the case with me, I was not perfectly precise in dropping the die. Try dropping a die 12 times and, instead of watching the die bounce on the ground, watch as it leaves your hand. The way it tumbles as it falls is never the same twice. In short, the lack of precision in the experiment means twelve rolls is far too few to discount variance.

The only way you could make a sensible finding that there was a causality in any correlation is if you used super-human (that is, mechanical) precision and sufficient data. That's what Persi Diaconis did when he tested coin flipping with a robotic arm and specifically studied precession and other physical considerations (angular momentum, rigidity, etc.) http://statweb.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf
And while the paper's abstract indicated that "For natural flips, the chance of coming up as started is about .51," the actual conclusion read: "For tossed coins, the classical assumptions of independence with probability 1/2 are pretty solid." And let's not forget the Kapitaniak paper that described how dice throwing was only predictable (w.r.t. a dynamical system) for a very small variance in initial conditions. I believe that variance to be impossible for a human to achieve, and I'm hoping to be able to test that at some point in the future.

The moral of the story is this: if you're going to spend the time to study the behavior of dice tosses, don't study it improperly. Dicesitter's assumption that there is a causal relationship between initial and ending orientation of a dice throw is not only unproven but, based on other literature, actually incorrect. I say this not because I'm expecting dicesitter to change his ways (old dog/new tricks/etc.) but because I hope to discourage anyone else from squandering the kind of time he has, throwing dice in a basement and then thinking you've got the edge when you go to a casino. There's a strong temptation to think "I have skill" when you win and "I got unlucky" when you lose. But that's only confirmation bias rearing it's ugly head -- that's just as much a fallacy as the idea that black is due after a long streak of reds.

Personally, I want someone to devote the time to a proper study of dice influence. I have the resources but not the time. If someone actually wants to take the time, I'm happy to collaborate on protocols. But that should be a topic for another thread.

MathExtremest wrote:

"And let's not forget the Kapitaniak paper that described how dice throwing was only predictable (aka a dynamical system) for a very small variance in initial conditions."

Probably explains why throwing into a practice box at home sometimes indicate a slight edge,which is not transferrable to casino conditions.

When I hear that "PLOP" (dice landing flat) in my practice rig with two layers of felt it is more often than not a good throw. But it's laughable (if not more so?) when most casinos now use foam underlays where the dice take trampoline bounces.

Quote: eclectic

Probably explains why throwing into a practice box at home sometimes indicate a slight edge,which is not transferrable to casino conditions.

When I hear that "PLOP" (dice landing flat) in my practice rig with two layers of felt it is more often than not a good throw. But it's laughable (if not more so?) when most casinos now use foam underlays where the dice take trampoline bounces.

It should be self-evident that practicing, regardless of what, is not useful if the practice conditions are different from the performance conditions. You'd never learn to perform a trumpet concerto by practicing on a piano; you'd never learn to throw a baseball slider by practicing with a golf ball from 80 feet away; and you'd never learn to influence the dice on a casino dice table by practicing on a blanket, a cardboard box, or even a casino-style table that isn't actually like the ones you intend to play on.

If you're going to practice throwing the dice with the intention of actually beating casino craps, it goes without saying that you should practice with equivalent equipment and be able to measure your improvement (and/or detect your failure to improve, which is far more likely). If you spend weeks, months, or years practicing at throwing dice but you can't measure your skill -- or differentiate that alleged skill from sheer, random luck -- then it's just foolish to go into a casino thinking you have the edge.

On the other hand, most people have never learned how to practice properly. Deliberate practice, of the sort undertaken by musicians, artists, or athletes, is not something often taught outside such disciplines. It's not like software engineers "practice" writing software, they just do it and learn from experience. The point is that without understanding how to practice effectively, you can waste an awful lot of time without improving at all.

Axel



I play baccarat, and I have to say I like it a lot, if I cant play craps
which is many times the case, I hope there is a table open.

I have read about it a lot and some of the systems used. I cant say I got
enough into it to offer an opinion, except there are some real smart
people out there and the very best can think outside the box. I would
actually be surprised if there are not people that can beat it, even
beat roulette. You and I will never know if there are.

dicesetter

math



good post

dicesertter

A couple years ago I played at a BJ table for a couple hours with an unusual looking chap two seats to my right. During the latest shoe this chap started placing bets in the same amounts I was about to bet, but just before I did. This was a manual shuffle game, and during the next shuffle I stepped away for a smoke and the chap followed, asked for a smoke and a light. I obliged. He then proceeded to explain that he was an alien and could read the minds of humans, that he had been reading mine during the last shoe.

Needless to say this revelation startled me a bit. I paused, then asked what I was thinking at the moment. He responded that I was thinking I didn't believe him but that if he was telling the truth, that if he was an alien and could read humans minds, then that would be amazing. Those were pretty much my thoughts, almost exactly correct. He then said that I was now bouncing around in my head trying to think of something he couldn't guess. Pretty much spot on again, 2 for 2. I visualized a scene in my head, he proceeded to describe it for me. I was stunned. I excused myself and walked to the restroom just a few feet away. Less than two minutes later I'm back, he's gone, the dealer said he just scooped up his chips w/o coloring up and walked away.

To this day I have no idea if I was talking to an alien that could read humans minds, or if human minds are so predictable that Tom, I call him Tom though he didn't say his name, that Tom could just have been a good predictor of my thoughts. The whole encounter was very weird, weird jhit happens to me....

Now if Tom read thru the last 20 or so pages of this thread, what would he predict? Maybe he'd say that after reading just one or two he could accurately predict the next 18 or 19? Maybe he'd just say that he has seen alot of pride exhibited, by several parties in the discussion. Pride is a good thing I guess, we should all use our brief time here in a way we can be proud of, and then we should be proud of it.

But pride is also a dangerous thing. Too much pride in oneself is often a bad thing. I am no mathematician but there may be some direct correlation between pride that is good and pride that is not so good. Perhaps it boils down to a situation where, the more that others can sense your pride, then the more too much of it you are showing, or sumptin' like that.... Just 2F

Quote: MathExtremist

On the other hand, most people have never learned how to practice properly. Deliberate practice, of the sort undertaken by musicians, artists, or athletes, is not something often taught outside such disciplines. It's not like software engineers "practice" writing software, they just do it and learn from experience. The point is that without understanding how to practice effectively, you can waste an awful lot of time without improving at all.

Actually I sometimes practice writing code with a new library or framework or API. Do something small and easy, call it a "proof of concept" if you will, then move on to the actual project. You could say this is a form of practicing software development.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

A couple years ago I played at a BJ table for a couple hours with an unusual looking chap two seats to my right. During the latest shoe this chap started placing bets in the same amounts I was about to bet, but just before I did. This was a manual shuffle game, and during the next shuffle I stepped away for a smoke and the chap followed, asked for a smoke and a light. I obliged. He then proceeded to explain that he was an alien and could read the minds of humans, that he had been reading mine during the last shoe.

Needless to say this revelation startled me a bit. I paused, then asked what I was thinking at the moment. He responded that I was thinking I didn't believe him but that if he was telling the truth, that if he was an alien and could read humans minds, then that would be amazing. Those were pretty much my thoughts, almost exactly correct. He then said that I was now bouncing around in my head trying to think of something he couldn't guess. Pretty much spot on again, 2 for 2. I visualized a scene in my head, he proceeded to describe it for me. I was stunned. I excused myself and walked to the restroom just a few feet away. Less than two minutes later I'm back, he's gone, the dealer said he just scooped up his chips w/o coloring up and walked away.

To this day I have no idea if I was talking to an alien that could read humans minds, or if human minds are so predictable that Tom, I call him Tom though he didn't say his name, that Tom could just have been a good predictor of my thoughts. The whole encounter was very weird, weird jhit happens to me....

Now if Tom read thru the last 20 or so pages of this thread, what would he predict? Maybe he'd say that after reading just one or two he could accurately predict the next 18 or 19? Maybe he'd just say that he has seen alot of pride exhibited, by several parties in the discussion. Pride is a good thing I guess, we should all use our brief time here in a way we can be proud of, and then we should be proud of it.

But pride is also a dangerous thing. Too much pride in oneself is often a bad thing. I am no mathematician but there may be some direct correlation between pride that is good and pride that is not so good. Perhaps it boils down to a situation where, the more that others can sense your pride, then the more too much of it you are showing, or sumptin' like that.... Just 2F

I always knew aliens were dumb. He's sitting there reading your mind when he should be playing poker or something and reading his opponents minds.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Actually I sometimes practice writing code with a new library or framework or API. Do something small and easy, call it a "proof of concept" if you will, then move on to the actual project. You could say this is a form of practicing software development.

Sure, and I do the same thing whenever I code. The difference is that once it's working, I just cut-and-paste into whatever it needs incorporation into. I don't need to do it anymore because there's no variance in runtime execution (or if there is, it's a bug). Imagine if software only executed correctly 40% of the time, everyone would freak out. Yet a baseball hitter who executes correctly 40% of the time is a hall-of-famer.

Quote: MathExtremist

Imagine if software only executed correctly 40% of the time, everyone would freak out.

Ugh, don't even say such evil things.

Quote: AxelWolf

I always knew aliens were dumb. He's sitting there reading your mind when he should be playing poker or something and reading his opponents minds.

Maybe he's saying that you need to be an alien mind-reader to parse this thread.

If I had mind-reading powers (and nobody else did), casino poker wouldn't be where I'd spend my time. Think about high-stakes multinational corporate negotiations or litigation. Or politics. Or if you could read many minds at once, just stand on the floor of the NYSE and scoop everyone's trades.

As I mentioned on page 41, the problem of practicing DI is far more difficult than that of practicing most other skills.
While a novice instrumentalist can hear/feel the sonic and/or physical benefits of making and experimenting with
specific changes (assuming a disciplined mind/ear), or at least start playing a basic set of notes/tunes, the DI is stuck
with a change/result that is rather unfathomable unless they have already reached an exalted (perhaps unattainable)
level of proficiency and skill where changes can actually be causal to a reliable effect. Until then it is just shots in the
abyss while deluding oneself into perceiving expertise and influence where simple variance is its only explanation.

It's a Catch-22 practice-hell where nothing you did, which you think improved your shot, can be reliably reproduced and
produce steady gains even the next day, not to mention at a live casino.

Quote: onebok

As I mentioned on page 41, the problem of practicing DI is far more difficult than that of practicing most other skills....
It's a Catch-22 practice-hell where nothing you did, which you think improved your shot, can be reliably reproduced and
produce steady gains even the next day, not to mention at a live casino.

Not exactly. More precisely, the problem with practicing DI is that the practitioners judge their improvement by examining financial results. That's like judging one's musical skill based on financial results. The problem with that is it leads to incorrect conclusions, such as "Selena Gomez or Kanye West are better musicians than Alison Balsom or Chris Potter."

Never heard of Alison Balsom or Chris Potter?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds_5cLu4FUk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si-7m7u84Do

Well you can say that about the vast majority of DI-wannabees who may try to justify their improvement financially.

I was trying to figure out how to overcome physical hurdles and realized what a nightmare it was because of my rather
precise analysis of the practice difficulties.

Quote: MathExtremist

Never heard of Alison Balsom

She has a nice Embouchure

Petroglyph


Do that mean what I think it means, or are you just saying she approaches a
horn the correct way??

dicesetter

Quote: onebok

As I mentioned on page 41, the problem of practicing DI is far more difficult than that of practicing most other skills.
While a novice instrumentalist can hear/feel the sonic and/or physical benefits of making and experimenting with
specific changes (assuming a disciplined mind/ear), or at least start playing a basic set of notes/tunes, the DI is stuck
with a change/result that is rather unfathomable unless they have already reached an exalted (perhaps unattainable)
level of proficiency and skill where changes can actually be causal to a reliable effect. Until then it is just shots in the
abyss while deluding oneself into perceiving expertise and influence where simple variance is its only explanation.

It's a Catch-22 practice-hell where nothing you did, which you think improved your shot, can be reliably reproduced and
produce steady gains even the next day, not to mention at a live casino.

I think my alien friend Tom may actually be a member here. I hope I didn't say anything about him that could be construed as an insult ;-)

Quote: MathExtremist

Maybe he's saying that you need to be an alien mind-reader to parse this thread.

If I had mind-reading powers (and nobody else did), casino poker wouldn't be where I'd spend my time. Think about high-stakes multinational corporate negotiations or litigation. Or politics. Or if you could read many minds at once, just stand on the floor of the NYSE and scoop everyone's trades.

I agree there would be billions to be made in other areas and only millions to be made at poker. Just being a company negotiator would probably earn significantly more money than poker. IE they are willing to pay 2 billion over what we are willing to take or they are willing to take half of what they are offering to sell for.

However, since we were talking about a casino situations I kept in tune with that.

Quote: dicesitter

Petroglyph


Do that mean what I think it means, or are you just saying she approaches a
horn the correct way??

dicesetter

She does it right, I was a pressure player like Dizzy Gillespie

Quote: MathExtremist

If you're worried that the casinos will learn of your secret techniques and change the game rules, don't be. That's already happened, and it wasn't you that caused the rule changes.

Could you elaborate on this a bit? What has changed other than the alligator bumps on the end wall, if you wouldn't mind, TIA.

Well, one of the changes is the requirement that both dice have to touch the back wall.

Sure, the box has discretion and won't "no roll" the occasional errant toss, especially by a greenhorn, but I've seen the box "no roll" dice setters who refuse to heed the command.

I've also heard the box tell people not to throw dem bones higher than eye height.

Finally, some casinos don't give players a lot of time to fix / set the dice to their satisfaction, as such an affectation only slows the game down.

Quote: petroglyph

Could you elaborate on this a bit? What has changed other than the alligator bumps on the end wall, if you wouldn't mind, TIA.

Scarne goes into this at great length in chapter 14 of Scarne on Dice. When it comes to casino craps tables, they've had the bumps there basically since the game became legal in the 30s. As far as foiling the attempts of dice controllers, it's enough to ensure that the dice bounce, hit the wall above the lower 1 inch, and bounce back a foot or so. Dicesitter's approach appears to be throwing the dice so they skitter across the table and hit gently of the bottom of the back wall where it meets the tabletop, and that's a similar approach to what the on-axis rollers intend to do. The problem with that method is it's immediately apparent that's what you're doing, and it's easy enough for a casino to tell someone "throw harder or pass the dice." I've seen casinos remove the dice from attempted dice controllers myself for exactly this reason -- one time, a shooter was setting the dice and then throwing them just a tad too gently so they came to rest just before the table. He didn't seem to exhibit any control that I could see -- the dice were moving very erratically despite his efforts -- but he was clearly trying. The dealer said "all the way down" one too many times and then eventually ended up saying "you're done, next shooter." The stick delivered the dice to the next shooter who finished out the setter's hand, then got to play his own.

If someone has the ability to control the dice after they bounce off the rubber bumps, good for them. But I don't think anyone can.

Curious. Are you saying that a toss where both dice travel to the backwall
and hit the lowest 1 inch and react backwards a few inches is an illegal toss
because the dice didn't contact the pyramidal bumps of the backwall area?

Quote: onebok

Curious. Are you saying that a toss where both dice travel to the backwall
and hit the lowest 1 inch and react backwards a few inches is an illegal toss
because the dice didn't contact the pyramidal bumps of the backwall area?

Not at all. There's nothing illegal about trying to control the dice (without cheating, that is), but that particular method is also impossible to conceal -- anyone can see where the dice came to rest. If someone could actually do that regularly, it's a simple matter for the house to tell them to stop. There have been stories more than once about casinos implementing various policies around how the dice need to travel, from not hitting the back wall on the fly to bouncing back more than a certain distance. I think Alan Mendelson mentioned a policy at the Bellagio that the dice had to bounce off the wall more than a foot, but I can't recall the actual distance. Some states have policies about that, others don't, but at a minimum it's at the casino's discretion whether to allow a roll.

The point is that someone who is thinking about devoting lots of time to attempting to control the dice with the method where the dice stop near or at the back wall should consider that the house can require them to throw the dice differently or take the dice away, and then all your practice would be for naught. You don't have the right to throw the dice at a craps table however you want. You don't have the right to throw the dice at a craps table at all.

Quote: MathExtremist

Scarne goes into this at great length in chapter 14 of Scarne on Dice.

I have read "Scarne on Dice", maybe I quoted you out of context, but not maliciously when I posted a part of a sentence of yours? I guess properly I should have used

Quote:

....If you're worried that the casinos will learn of your secret techniques and change the game rules, don't be. That's already happened, and it wasn't you that caused the rule changes....

Quote:

Petro... Could you elaborate on this a bit? What has changed other than the alligator bumps on the end wall, if you wouldn't mind, TIA...

I was aware of the "keeping the dice low enough below the dealers eyes" [although some of them are pretty short, lol], and dice must hit the wall. I read your statement where it said "and change the game rules, " to mean maybe something other than the casino protections mentioned.

Quote:

As far as foiling the attempts of dice controllers, it's enough to ensure that the dice bounce, hit the wall above the lower 1 inch, and bounce back a foot or so.

I wasn't aware there is a written or implied distance the dice need to bounce back after hitting the bumps. I have heard that from a dealer before, but it seems to me they [and maybe you?] are making up rules on the fly. Do you just want the dice to knock over stacks of players chips, by bouncing back "a foot or so"? Doesn't that slow down the game?

Since we all know that DI is a myth, and as long as the dice bounce up and hit the wall, anyone pretending [player or house] that it is a possibility is just being superstitious, and I now enjoy walking away from the table soon after, "getting heat". I have said before, if I owned a casino, I would be giving dice control lessons for free. They ought to put Scoblete and Heavy, and the dice doctor, [and MP] down there every week and advertise it on billboards. I will say, most di's at least don't bounce them off the table very often, and do know the rules.

Speaking of bounce, I wondered what happened to that ultra bounce underlayment of the felt they were using so much? lol

I find it hard to believe that [1] casinos haven't sent trusted people to these dice schools to find out the truth about dc, and [2] that if di were possible, that they would allow players to set the dice. Most dealers have enough experience that if I throw a hundred tosses and maybe 3 come up short and generally those aren't winners, that I am trying to hit the wall. If somebody is trying to cheat, they deserve what they get, sliding etc. But merely setting the dice and throwing smoothly, does not alter the outcome of the numbers over random, which you offered to wager on.

Where are all these mythical di's? Where is the threat to the casino's bottom line? Those schools have went on for a long time now, and I have yet to see even one person who can effectively alter the outcomes beyond random would dictate. DI's draw players to the tables, like flies to rotten meat. The casino's should hire these guys. I can't believe how many times I have approached an empty table, buy in and attract a swarm of crap players, who had to have been waiting, for someone to open the game?

Quote:

Dicesitter's approach appears to be throwing the dice so they skitter across the table and hit gently of the bottom of the back wall where it meets the tabletop, and that's a similar approach to what the on-axis rollers intend to do. The problem with that method is it's immediately apparent that's what you're doing, and it's easy enough for a casino to tell someone "throw harder or pass the dice."

Why would they do that? That is superstitious and silly, and it runs away players. It is the owners prerogative to mismanage if they wish. Still, not one player anywhere, anytime in the history of craps, has been shown to influence or control the dice, why create the animosity and take the dice away?

Quote:

I've seen casinos remove the dice from attempted dice controllers myself for exactly this reason

Should they do this to me, I will vehemently attempt to pick up my passline wager, as they have altered the contract after the fact. trying to cheat me, and leave.

It is no wonder that Vegas is losing market share with their hostile attitude toward craps players. Money goes where it is most appreciated, remember not one time, ever, has anyone shown the ability to influence the dice

Quote:

one time, a shooter was setting the dice and then throwing them just a tad too gently so they came to rest just before the table. He didn't seem to exhibit any control that I could see

See what? I have seen shooters, throw over hand, underhand, side hand, spin, no spin, hop skip and a jump, two twirls and a backflip, repeatedly, and...it...doesn't...matter. Some casinos care, some don't, so what, it doesn't matter.

Quote:

he was clearly trying.

According to NGC, everybody is trying, again, if it worked the info is available to everyone, it doesn't work, so why the animosity toward di's?

Quote:

The dealer said "all the way down" one too many times and then eventually ended up saying "you're done, next shooter." The stick delivered the dice to the next shooter who finished out the setter's hand, then got to play his own.

Like I said, I will try to pick up all of my money, as I feel they are cheating me out of my pass line bet if they won't let me pick it up. Just what does the "contract" in contract bet say, anyway?

If I didn't originally bet on the new shooter, they are stealing. Give me my money and I will leave.

Quote:

If someone has the ability to control the dice after they bounce off the rubber bumps, good for them. But I don't think anyone can.

You have shown you are willing to wager on it, I believe you. If the bet had went forward, you could have faded my twenty bucks.

I think you misunderstand my take on things. Dice control absolutely exists. There are even names for certain controlled shots: the blanket roll or pad roll, the whip shot, the Greek shot, the slide, etc. If you've read Scarne on Dice, you already know this. The default rules in the casino game prevent these shots from working, and the most important rule in the casino game prevents every other shot from working: they can require you to throw differently or pass the dice. You suggested I was making up rules on the fly? It's not my rule. The casino can call no-roll whenever they want.

My position on the topic is that nobody can control the dice long enough or consistently enough to make any money in a casino. Of course, making money in a casino is the only reason to do it, unless there's a juicy illegal street craps game in your neighborhood (but count me out for that. I stay clear of illegal gambling).

I don't care if someone practices for eight years and masters a controlled shot in their basement. When they go to a casino and starts using their carefully practiced throw and the casino says "hey, don't do that," all that practice is wasted. Even if you get away with it for a few rolls before they shut you down, what's your gain? A few percentage points on a few hundred dollars worth of action? Congratulations, that play was worth $10 and now it's over. The house won't let you get away with a slide for more than one or two rolls. Why do you think they'd let you get away with some other controlled shot indefinitely?

And that's why I insisted on that aborted bet with Dicesitter happening in a casino. I'm not about to get in an argument with someone who's sliding the dice or short-rolling or doing something else specious. The point is to be able to control the dice in a casino. If the casino won't accept the roll, I'm certainly not going to. I'd still love to take Dicesitter's whisky (or money), but I have a feeling he's not game any longer. We both know his mojo doesn't work in a casino, if it even works at all.

Now, if there's someone out there controlling the dice in such a way that the casino can't tell it's happening but they can, that's news to me. That person actually would have the long-term edge, but I don't think they exist. Everyone else who's trying to throw gently against the wall and have the dice come to rest there, either touching the back wall or within an inch or two -- they can't camouflage that. It's too easy for the casino to spot, too easy to for the casino to tell whether it was luck or skill, and too easy for the casino to take the dice away from you if you don't comply with their requests to throw the dice differently. That's their prerogative. Like I said, you don't have the right to throw the dice. I tried using the blanket roll in a casino once. The dealer said "it's not a yo-yo, just shake them and throw them."

And to your point about having the dice removed and picking up your line bet, that wouldn't go over so well. The line bet is a contract bet regardless of who's shooting. The contract is "we'll give you a bet with a favorable first roll if you agree to keep the bet up afterwards if it doesn't resolve. You don't get to remove your line bet even if the casino removes the dice from your hand.

Quote: MathExtremist

I think you misunderstand my take on things. Dice control absolutely exists. There are even names for certain controlled shots: the blanket roll or pad roll, the whip shot, the Greek shot, the slide, etc. If you've read Scarne on Dice, you already know this.

I didn't realize anyone on the wizard's board was so thick, that I had to spell out it wasn't in a game of blanket or street craps. All of those shots are defeated by the bumps.

Quote:

You suggested I was making up rules on the fly? It's not my rule. The casino can call no-roll whenever they want.

Of course the casino can no roll anybody anytime. What I said was

Quote:

I have heard that from a dealer before, but it seems to me they [and maybe you?] are making up rules on the fly. Do you just want the dice to knock over stacks of players chips, by bouncing back "a foot or so"?

I didn't "suggest", I asked in brackets and with a ?. You said "a foot or so" is a rule, I asked for clarification, as some casino's passline is at nine inches and bouncing back "a foot or so" will continually knock over players chips. Makes a big mess, but if you want to insist on shooters knocking over players chips, I wanted to tell the floor where I got the rule, just in case? So, it is either a rule, or you are making it up. I didn't accuse you, I asked, and politely, I might add.

Quote:

Of course, making money in a casino is the only reason to do it, unless there's a juicy illegal street craps game in your neighborhood (but count me out for that. I stay clear of illegal gambling).

I think someone said you live in Wa.? You have never made a friendly wager over a sporting event of even 5$, good for you. Never a friendly poker game for nickels either? You are like a saint. But I disagree with you on "that is the only reason to do it". People enjoy all kinds of hand eye coordination games with no money involved, darts, air hockey, etc. I would say someone with a regulation table in their house "enjoys the game".

Quote:

The house won't let you get away with a slide for more than one or two rolls. Why do you think they'd let you get away with some other controlled shot indefinitely?

What I said was DI isn't real, it isn't happening, it's bullcrap, phony, phooey, not possible with human hands. IN A LEGAL GAME OF BANK CRAPS IN A CASINO. Sorry for shouting, but I said before, since it isn't possible "with a legal shot in a casino" because it has never been shown to be real in the history of craps, ergo, there is no reason for the floor to get all uppity.

Quote:

And that's why I insisted on that aborted bet with Dicesitter happening in a casino.

You also suggested Ahigh's table. not in a casino.

Quote:

I'm not about to get in an argument with someone who's sliding the dice or short-rolling or doing something else specious. The point is to be able to control the dice in a casino. If the casino won't accept the roll, I'm certainly not going to.

I have played with him in a casino, that isn't how he plays. He agreed repeatedly to have Axel present and another believable witness and a competent stick. Are you trying to suggest with all that, that he would trick you so convincingly as to be able to collect your money? He's a craps player not a magician.

Quote:

I'd still love to take Dicesitter's whisky (or money), but I have a feeling he's not game any longer. We both know his mojo doesn't work in a casino, if it even works at all.

I wanted him to show up, "only after it appeared he was going to anyway", [ I knew it would turn into a circus, is why I asked why would he do it? ] I totally understand him not wanting to perform at a clown show, which it seems is where you started steering it.

Quote:

That person actually would have the long-term edge, but I don't think they exist.

I have said that repeatedly. So, has "the long term" been defined? I thought the bet was 10 or 20 turns. I will still bet the 20$ that in that scenario, DS will beat you. Not that he has an advantage, as I said.

Quote:

It's too easy for the casino to spot, too easy to for the casino to tell whether it was luck or skill,

Spot what? Dice floating through the air prettily has nothing to do with the outcome, nada.

Quote:

That's their prerogative. Like I said, you don't have the right to throw the dice.

No I don't, I don't have a "right" to be in their casino, but I do have the right to complain about being treated unfairly, like a mark and cheated out of my money.

Quote:

The dealer said "it's not a yo-yo, just shake them and throw them."

Yep, their are a lot of mouth dealers, I don't believe that was a house rule. I'm not sure about how you tossed "your blanket toss", but I have a good idea. I hear all kinds of things from dealers that have no association with legitimate rules of the casino they work for.

Two weeks ago, I placed a dc bet and it traveled to the six. The dealer wouldn't let me take it down. I asked the floor a few days ago and he said he was sorry, the dealer should have known. Busy game, flowing fun, I wasn't ready to fight over a red chip. What I have absolutely learned is, a player has to watch his own money, and know when he is suppose to get payed. They make more mistakes all the time.

Quote:

And to your point about having the dice removed and picking up your line bet, that wouldn't go over so well. The line bet is a contract bet regardless of who's shooting. The contract is "we'll give you a bet with a favorable first roll if you agree to keep the bet up afterwards if it doesn't resolve. You don't get to remove your line bet even if the casino removes the dice from your hand.

I don't think that is just at all. In order for me to enter into a contract we would need to agree on the terms. When I placed my line bet, there were certain conditions of the table that I was willing to wager on. I didn't put a line bet down on the next shooter. They materially changed the terms of the contract without my permission.

Yes, they will take and keep my money and there isn't one thing I can do about it. But that doesn't change my mind, that is an unfair practice and they are unfairly confiscating my money. Just like the casino taking dealers tips has been ruled illegal, it only takes someone with enough money and tenacity to prove this is cheating. Put it this way, "it ain't right, but it's so"...Ivan T

I had to post this observation. Maybe someone has already pointed this out. Some of you probably know this guy: "Mad Professor" from the web, or maybe by living in Vegas. When trying to see what the DI's fix was for 'bouncy tables' I see where he has a toss called the "Low, Slow and Easy Toss". This is similar to FS's statement to 'lower the angle and hit closer to the back wall'.

Now, I'd like them to tell me how is this physically possible since when the angle is changed, one has to toss the dice HARDER and with greater FORCE or MOMENTUM
in order for the die to even REACH the back wall!!!!!!!!!!! It seems they are able to defy the law of gravity in order for this to happen, eh?

From my reading of MP's postings over the years, IMHO he is a shill for some casino and gets paid to provide useful disinformation that propels a wildly unsuccessful group of DI-wannabees into the slaughterhouse. They don't notice the lack of specificity in anything he says about how to physically affect dice, either in his book or in his repetitive rants that follow a formulaic pattern? It's all about how you can easily beat the casino and make gobs of money.

As far as the low,slow,easy shot he talks about, you're observations are correct.

Here is part of one of many MP posts that made me think he was not what the DI crowd made of him. This section of his "Lady is a PRO" post shows him extolling the fabulous and easy progression of DI prowess by one of his latest girlfriends. This is to entertain those on this site who may not have read any of this "legendary" guru's posts. My sarcastic remarks are in [brackets]:

"Let me list her progress over the last couple of years:

· I first taught her on the low-rent tables of Gaughan’s Plaza in Downtown Vegas when it was still a 25-cent game. She liked the action, and quickly understood the math of the game."

[She is smarter than most!]

" Several sessions at Golden Nugget, Four Queens, Fitzgeralds and the Fremont Hotel over a period of three weeks honed her skills from a rank beginner to where she was pretty consistent in throwing about 10 times before sevening out."

[Absolutely stunning! Fabulous progress in just several sessions IN LIVE PLAY! SRR 9-ish. She is a real prodigy!]

" A month later, in Biloxi, Mississippi, she continued to improve her skills, and started to notice her own ability to throw all of the Field-numbers, but not the 5, 6 & 8 (even when she was trying). I showed her the simplest of methods to take full advantage of that."

[So now she is IN LIVE PLAY improving yet unable to hit the numbers that should properly result from her physical toss characteristics and her choice of set.]

"She didn’t accompany me on all my gaming-destination excursions, but by the time I took her to Lake Tahoe several months later, her shooting skills weren’t as rusty as I thought they would be. Her roll-count average increased substantially by the end of that trip, but she was a little intimidated by the higher than usual table limits that I had her playing at."

[ So now she is with SRR nearer 10? Amazing progress for what should have been a rusty shooter!]

Eclectic: Don't waste your time puzzling over his comments on dice mechanics since they are all full of errors or worse. His regression betting rants only promote financial ruin by his hapless groupies.

Math

That statement is very misleading at best. There is nothing wrong with a shot that hits the bottom inch of the
back wall and comes to rest several inches from it. I use that shot all the time.

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

That statement is very misleading at best. There is nothing wrong with a shot that hits the bottom inch of the
back wall and comes to rest several inches from it. I use that shot all the time.

I know you do, and you've admitted that your wife and any ten-year-old child can execute that shot too. Given that, it should be obvious that the casino doesn't perceive a threat to its bottom line -- that's why nobody at the casino is stopping you.

Do you actually believe that any ten-year-old child can beat the game by throwing the same shot you use? There's a world of difference between "getting the dice to hit the bottom inch of the back wall and come to rest several inches from it" and "altering the dice probabilities." It doesn't matter where the dice come to rest if the odds don't change.

Quote: petroglyph

I didn't realize anyone on the wizard's board was so thick, that I had to spell out it wasn't in a game of blanket or street craps.

I may be long-winded, but thick is a bit much. If you had read an additional few sentences instead of taking an abbreviated quote out of context, you would have read the salient point: "My position on the topic is that nobody can control the dice long enough or consistently enough to make any money in a casino."

You also misunderstood the premise when I said that it's easy for a casino to tell when someone is controlling the dice. Slides are easy to spot (unless the dealer is being blocked but that's illegal). The whip shot is also easy to spot, and you're wrong about the backboard necessarily taking that out of play because a whip shot only needs to control one die, not two. Dicesitter says he uses a throw that comes to rest inches from the wall. That's also easy to spot. He thinks he's influencing the dice by doing so, but at the same time he's said anyone can do that, so clearly it's not an influenced throw just to get the dice to land near the wall. Maybe if they didn't tumble sideways at all after they hit the wall it would be an influenced shot, but guess what? That's also easy to spot. The point is that it doesn't matter what technique anyone uses in their attempt to control the dice. If they're ever successful, the casino will notice and simply ask the shooter to stop it. That's their prerogative. They don't have to let you shoot and then you have no influence at all.

Do you think there's a plausible way of influencing the dice that would somehow go undetected by the casino? I'd love to hear about it because that would be the only thing even remotely worth practicing. All these dice setting seminars though, the ones teaching you how to get the dice to come to a rest touching the wall and rolling once or twice on axis but not tumbling sideways? That's not worth paying a penny for (maybe unless there's a lunch involved). The only way you'll be permitted to use such a skill in a casino over hundreds or thousands of rolls is if you're not actually good enough to make money with it. If you *are* good enough, since you can't camouflage it at all, it's a simple matter for the casino to tell you to stop it after a few dozen rolls. And you're only going to make a few bucks in theo during that timeframe. That doesn't even cover the cost of the seminar. So the whole thing is a lose-lose proposition for you. The only winners there are the casino and the seminar hucksters.

math


yes I think a 10 year can throw a shot to hit the very lower portion of the back
wall , I know my wife can. that is far different than the shot I use. I am surprised you
cant do that.

But as usual you can't stick with what you said because you are embarrassed you said it. "

this is what you said " The point is that someone who is thinking about devoting lots of time to attempting to control the dice with the method where the dice stop near or at the back wall should consider that the house can require them to throw the dice differently or take the dice away, and then all your practice would be for naught."

I said I have been doing this for a long time, and have played at many casino's across the country including
Las Vegas, Laughlin, St Louis, Tunica, New Orleans, Mississippi, Michigan. Wisconsin, Iowa. No one asked me
to quit playing or took the dice away.

Now you change your mind and want to talk about something else "There's a world of difference between "getting the dice to hit the bottom inch of the back wall and come to rest several inches from it" and "altering the dice probabilities." It doesn't matter where the dice come to rest if the odds don't change."

Laughing... Math your funny



dicesetter

Quote: eclectic

Now, I'd like them to tell me how is this physically possible since when the angle is changed, one has to toss the dice HARDER and with greater FORCE or MOMENTUM
in order for the die to even REACH the back wall!!!!!!!!!!! It seems they are able to defy the law of gravity in order for this to happen, eh?

Once you have learned to defy gravity, quantum mechanics, and time travel, controlling the dice gets easier.

Quote: dicesitter

I said I have been doing this for a long time, and have played at many casino's across the country including
Las Vegas, Laughlin, St Louis, Tunica, New Orleans, Mississippi, Michigan. Wisconsin, Iowa. No one asked me
to quit playing or took the dice away.

That's because you're not changing the odds. Why is this hard for you to understand?

Quote: onebok

· I first taught her

After I saw that, I knew the rest was a fib.

math


Again you were saying there is no reason to work on a shot like that because they wont
allow you to us it, did you forget already, I said your wrong as long as you do hit the
back wall..... now your wondering around somewhere lost with odds....

stay on topic if you actually believed what you said..... give me a little proof where are
all the casinos that will not allow me to use that shot.... maybe just a half dozen or so
would be fine.


Thanks, I sure don't want to drive to all those places and not be able to play.


dicesetter

What I said was that it's a trivial exercise for a dealer to see that you're actually influencing the dice (if you are) and tell you to stop. The fact that you're using your allegedly-skillful throw everywhere you go should be ample proof that your throw isn't actually skillful and you're not actually influencing the dice.

If you had statistics to demonstrate otherwise, maybe there would be people willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. A statistically significant sample with an interesting chi-squared result, for example -- and you've been directly asked for this quantitative evidence more than once (and have always failed to deliver).

Nobody's going to believe you just because you keep bragging how long you've been practicing in your basement. Blind faith and guesswork don't cut it. You can't provide a shred of evidence that you can influence the dice at all, and you shouldn't expect anyone to believe in your dice-flinging mastery until you can.

math


This is almost unbelievable...you were talking about hitting close to the back wall or a little
off it and that you cant throw like that, well I said your wrong...... I read my post again and
again I did not say anything about dice influence, I did not say anything about how I had been
doing, I simple said your dead wrong by saying you cant throw a shot that hits the bottom of
the wall and comes to rest close to it.

You don't take being wrong to well do you??????

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

You don't take being wrong to well do you??????

Fortunately for me, your perception of whether I'm right or wrong has no bearing on my income.

Unfortunately for you, it doesn't have any bearing on yours either.

The heat is on! The popcorn is popping! Now Mad Professor is under attack! Who's next?

Quote: MathExtremist

That's because you're not changing the odds. Why is this hard for you to understand?

This lack of understanding is universal. The house edge is simply unfair payouts for the odds. You can't change the payouts in casino games, but you can change the odds, although not in every casino game, and not in all circumstances.

MathExtremist, After 5000 posts, you must be going nuts trying to explain basic mathematics. I assume this or similar websites has a simple page that explains the basics. I created one myself, but some people still don't understand it, although I made it as simple as possible. It didn't work, so I created software that showed people from a practical point. Specifically it can check roulette spins for sequences like a zero, zero, zero, compared to 34,2,3 to demonstrate the odds of such a sequence are exactly the same, assuming spins were random. But again, people didn't learn from it. I've put it down to people believe what they want to believe. Casinos thrive on delusions and fallacy. I assume you know your times tables, so I know you already know this. I'm new here. Hi.

RoulettePhysics



If you are new here I will offer some advice, don't disagree with Math or there will be
hell to pay.

Even when he is clearly wrong, which is much of the time, he will find some way to
insult you . For gods sake, don't talk about anything you have worked on.

You are 100% correct in your opinion that casinos thrive on delusions and fallacy, and one of those
is that the out come of every person that enters that casino is 100% random.


dicesetter