guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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March 21st, 2015 at 4:02:42 AM permalink
As I stated in another thread I've been betting usually $15 on the don'ts and I lay $150. Depending on how I was doing I would bet hardways to hedge. Lately I've stopped betting hardways. There have been times where I have been even or up a few hundred dollars and I think (man if I wasn't spending an extra $15 on every 6 or 8 I would be way up), however there are days where I get greedy and don't bet a hard way and it comes and I'm thinking "For only $15 I could have insured most of my $150 lay bet"

How many darikside players in here hedge with a hardway? The one that's most tempting is the hard 10 and hard 4 because there's only one combination that can kill you, but that one combination has killed me many times!
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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March 21st, 2015 at 4:16:29 AM permalink
Don't hedge, it's bad.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 21st, 2015 at 5:01:15 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Don't hedge, it's bad.



An impulse to hedge comes from the beating you take from the variance. This kind of thinking obscures the fact that low variance is good for the House.

If you want less variance*, don't make big odds bets.

*there is an argument that although variance is the only hope for the negative expectation bettor, less is sometimes better for players who want their money to 'last longer'
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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March 21st, 2015 at 9:20:47 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

An impulse to hedge comes from the beating you take from the variance



Isn't hedging also one way to increase your average bet for comps purposes?

I know, I know, "don't gamble for comps," usually followed by, "because you usually end up losing more than what the comps would have cost you had you paid for them."
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 21st, 2015 at 12:09:31 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Isn't hedging also one way to increase your average bet for comps purposes?

I know, I know, "don't gamble for comps," usually followed by, "because you usually end up losing more than what the comps would have cost you had you paid for them."



and each bet carries an expected value. Most of the time, assuming you aren't being over-comped to begin with, the casino should be just fine with all your hedging
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
sc15
sc15
Joined: Sep 28, 2014
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March 21st, 2015 at 2:40:32 PM permalink
Yeah, ok, so when the easy 4 or easy 10 comes out, you lose both bets. Brilliant.

And btw, there's 2 combinations to make an easy 4/10, not 1.

1, 3 and 3, 1
or 4, 6, and 6, 4

2/3rds of 4s and 10s rolled will be easy.
PBguy
PBguy
Joined: Sep 4, 2013
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March 21st, 2015 at 3:01:25 PM permalink
I had a guy that placed a $200 hard 4 bet as a hedge against his lay. I hit the 4 soft. Cost him $2200 instead of $2000.

The way I look at it is that there are 3 outcomes: 7, soft, hard. Using the hardway bet as a hedge will either cost you profit or increase your loss in 2 of the 3 outcomes.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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March 21st, 2015 at 5:39:39 PM permalink
Here's a fun idea: calculate how much you expect to lose just playing DP+odds versuses DP+odds+hedge. You'll soon realize how awful the hedge is (what is it, like 11% HE?).

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