guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 5:33:47 PM permalink
Okay I'm mostly a don't pass player and I like to bet $10 and I lay 5X odds. I've been made fun of here for trying to different "systems" when I'm getting creamed on the don't pass but for the most part I like to bet $10 and lay 5x odds if it's a 5, 6, 8, or 9 and I don't like to risk $100 to win $50 so I lay $50 or $60 if 4 or 10 is the point.

Anyways at the casino around here you've got people doing all kinds of hop bets, hardways, hop the hardways, and all the other proposition bets which really slows down the game. This is even worse on Friday and Saturday night as the tables are so jam packed that you can barely move. So if I want to gamble I go to the $25 seven stars/diamond table where none of those amateurs are there. There are less players, you feel like you can breathe, you don't 5 people betting $1 or $2 on all the hardways. The problem with this table is the $25 minimum kills me on the don't pass on a bad come out roll. On a $25 table I bet a lot more on flat bets and a lot less on odds. I've seen the $25 table go around with shooter after shooter rolling 2 or 3 naturals and before I know it my bankroll is gone even on a cold table!

Here's my question. If I were to bet both the passline and the don't pass, I understand I would loose on a 12 but if I bet on both the passline and don't pass line at the same time for $25 at the same time and then I put down $60-$75 in odds on the 5, 6, 8, and 9 would this be close to the same house edge as if I only placed a $10 don't pass bet with 5x odds?
ThatDonGuy
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July 12th, 2014 at 6:14:44 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

Here's my question. If I were to bet both the passline and the don't pass, I understand I would loose on a 12 but if I bet on both the passline and don't pass line at the same time for $25 at the same time and then I put down $60-$75 in odds on the 5, 6, 8, and 9 would this be close to the same house edge as if I only placed a $10 don't pass bet with 5x odds?


I would have to crunch some numbers, but my initial reaction is no, it isn't, as the pass bet has a higher house edge than the don't pass, so you're moving $25 of your bet to a worse bet. You might as well increase your odds bets when you bet $50 on don't from 50-60 to 60-75.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 7:45:57 PM permalink
I thought the house edge on the pass was 1.41% and the house edge on the don't is 1.36%. I think the risk of an occasional 12 might not be as big of a risk as a come out roll that goes 7, 7, 11, point; If you get enough of those rolls at a $25 table it can eat into your money fast. I like to play the $10 tables and put $60 on the 6 & 8 and $75 on the 5 & 9; I was at a table earlier today where 4 & 10 were the point 5 times and they made the point all 5 times. Not worth it to put odds on it if it only pays you half IMO.
ThatDonGuy
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July 12th, 2014 at 8:21:30 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I thought the house edge on the pass was 1.41% and the house edge on the don't is 1.36%.


They are - which is why moving $25 from don't pass to pass won't lower the overall house edge.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 8:23:04 PM permalink
I never said move the don't pass to pass, I said have a $25 chip on both so the only way you can loose on the come out is if they roll a 12, and then lay your odds on the don't pass
Ahigh
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July 12th, 2014 at 8:44:36 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I never said move the don't pass to pass, I said have a $25 chip on both so the only way you can loose on the come out is if they roll a 12, and then lay your odds on the don't pass



It's easier to understand this play on a $1 10x odds table such as Joker's Wild. If you bet the pass and don't pass for $1 each as well as the come and don't come for $1 each every roll, the cost to play is $1 every 36 rolls (the twelve). This (continuous-come + continous-dc) strategy costs about $3 per hour to employ with absolutely zero chance to win.

But for that $3 per hour (or 3x minimum bet per hour cost) it opens up both the opportunity for odds and lay odds for at least 1 number 5/6th of all rolls (every roll except immediately after a seven).

Assuming you only play one side, the cost to play this way is exactly double the normal cost of only playing one side, and you completely kill the volatility of the line bets. This leaves you with only the volatility of the odds and lay odds bets.

In order to win, you need to be a lot of odds or lay odds, but you can win with twice cost when the edge on a percentage basis is still under 1% very easily.

The problem most people run into is that they can't afford to have big enough odds for lots of numbers to get the edge down under 1%. If you're not under 1%, you might as well just bet no odds or single odds and keep it simple. But at 10x odds working the comeout, this strategy can work. It's just a LITTLE BIT harder to win.

But try it at Joker's Wild, and you can probably stomach the costs and win with complete continuous come+dc bets if you work the comeout roll with your odds and always take 10x odds on one side of each bet.
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ThatDonGuy
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July 12th, 2014 at 9:00:00 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I never said move the don't pass to pass, I said have a $25 chip on both so the only way you can loose on the come out is if they roll a 12, and then lay your odds on the don't pass


You're still better off in terms of house edge by betting the whole $50 on Don't - that's what I meant by "moving the $25 to Pass". (I forgot that your "original" bet was only $10.)
FleaStiff
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July 12th, 2014 at 9:06:34 PM permalink
>Okay I'm mostly a don't pass player ...
That is like saying I'm mostly a "tails" players. Right and Wrong players at craps are like "heads" and "tails". So close to each as makes no difference whatsoever. Sure, Don't Players have some slight smidgen of a better mathematical chance, but it also takes a bit more bankroll to do the Don't Side properly.

> and I like to bet $10 and I lay 5X odds.
Good for you, that makes you a bit of an "average player".

> I've been made fun of here ...
All in good nature, I'm sure. We don't ridicule people here, though we do try to be humorous at times.

>for trying two different "systems" when I'm getting creamed on the don't pass
The only system to play when you are getting creamed on the Don't Pass is known as "Admit your mistake and Switch to the Pass Line".

>but for the most part I like to bet $10
That's fine as long as the table minimum signs allow it.

>and lay 5x odds if it's a 5, 6, 8, or 9 and I don't like to risk $100 to win $50 so I lay $50 or $60 if 4 or 10 is the point.
Seems okay on the math. Most of your money is the odds bet and that is proper.


>Anyways at the casino around here you've got people doing all kinds of hop bets, hardways, hop the hardways,
>and all the other proposition bets which really slows down the game.
Yeah, but they are players too and the casino wants their money too and only the casino can comment on their style of play.

> This is even worse on Friday and Saturday night as the tables are so jam packed that you can barely move.
Man, that sure does make the casino happy.
Gamblers blowing their bankroll at the end of the week and slurping up some booze and staring a the cocktail waitress's boobs. Whats the world coming too?
I don't know, but the casino is happy and the waitress is making good tips on a Friday or Saturday night, even if its a bit rowdy and the dice are moving slow and she is getting a head ache from all that whoopin' and hollerin' stuff.

> So if I want to gamble I go to the $25 seven stars/diamond table where none of those amateurs are there.
Again, that's just fine. Casinos don't care what game you play as long as you play it at their casino.

> There are less players, you feel like you can breathe, you don't 5 people betting $1 or $2 on all the hardways.
Yeah, its quieter and there are fewer distractions over penny ante stuff.

>The problem with this table is the $25 minimum kills me on the don't pass on a bad come out roll.
Yeah, well that sort of happens. You pay for solitude or relative solitude but they don't sell you any immunity from a come out roll loss. Drat it all.

> On a $25 table I bet a lot more on flat bets and a lot less on odds.
Sorry Charlie, but our fearless leader and just about every dealer in town will tell you that ain't the way to do it.
Some people have different goals: Time at table, make a killing, get that CW into the sack, get drunk, yell the loudest over a one dollar hop bet, talk the loudest to the dice, etc. etc.

> I've seen the $25 table go around with shooter after shooter rolling 2 or 3 naturals and before I know it my bankroll is gone
Boy, you sure are right! Its enough to drive you crazy. That is when I grab the waitress, bury my head in her boobs and ask her to support me and she uses her knees (both of them) and calls security.

> even on a cold table!
Yep. But perhaps you are staying too long on the Don'ts.

Are you "wedded" to the Dark Side? Most players approach a table and try to determine "Do, Don't or Choppy".
Maybe you should not have a "favorite" strategy but should use a strategy that is appropriate to time and place and table.

One thing is certain though. If you really are NOT bankrolled for a 25.00 table, you ain't gonna be happy there for long.
So go back to the ten dollar table with all the elbows and all the whoopin' and hollerin' over a one dollar hardway and all those twenty minuted dances before the shooter actually throws the darned dice. If you are looking for "time at table" the math rules.

Go look at those Gambler's Ruin charts that show how many units you need at a craps table. There are lots of footnotes to those charts but none of them say anything about a nice quiet table. They just say: five dollars, ten dollars, twenty-five dollars, etc.

They explain gambler's ruin at a 90 percent confidence level ... and the reason its not based on "table manners of the players" is that Lady Luck visits are simply not based upon whether the guy next to you whoops and hollers and hops the hardways or not. Gambler's Ruin is based on YOUR bankroll, not the bankroll of the other players or the social behavior of the other players.

So even if you like the dont side very much.... don't get married to it.

>Here's my question. If I were to bet both the passline and the don't pass,....
You would be hedging your bets which means you would never win enough to make it worth your time standing there praying the dice gods don't give you no twelves.

> I understand I would loose on a 12
Yes and twelves will indeed roll.
>but if I bet on both the passline and don't pass line at the same time for $25 at the same time
then you are a wuss who can't make up his mind, place his bet and accept the results.
> and then I put down $60-$75 in odds on the 5, 6, 8, and 9 ....
ah come oh, you can play zero odds and it ain't gonna change nuttin'.
> would this be close to the same house edge as if I only placed a $10 don't pass bet with 5x odds?
would also be close to the same house edge as if you only placed a ten dollar PassLine bet with 5x odds too.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 11:20:15 PM permalink
Lost $500 trying this that's the bad news; The good news is that in 3 hours of playing, they only rolled a single 12 the entire 3 hour session. I only lost $25 once on a come out roll which was my goal was to basically break even or loose an insignificant amount of money on the come out roll, and hopefully the table would be cold but lady luck was not on my side tonight. It was a strange table where there were only 3 people there but of the 2 of the 3 people couldn't make any points but the other person was making three or four points every time he shot. If I had been putting money behind my passline bet when he shot instead of the don't pass whenever he shot I would have easily doubled my money, but hindsight is always 20/20.

I was betting $25 on the don't pass, $25 on the passline, and I had 2x odds behind my don't pass bets of 5, 6, 8, and 9 and 1x odds behind my 4 and 10 don't pass bets.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 11:22:43 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

ah come oh, you can play zero odds and it ain't gonna change nuttin'.



If I would have played zero odds I would have left with $475 because they rolled a 12 on the come out roll at the very beginning of the session. I lost an additional $475 laying 2x odds behind my don't pass bet. I *WISH* that I had zero odds or odds behind the passline on the "hot shooter"
Ahigh
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July 13th, 2014 at 10:13:12 AM permalink
Yesterday at Palace Station, I saw a black guy with a black hat that said "AMERICA" on it with each letter upside down with tons of tattoos.

His betting strategy was $160 across after the point was established, $5 pass line to shoot, and $10 hi-lo on EVERY ROLL.

When he got paid on a four or a ten, he also added a four dollar yo from his pay.

The $10 hi-lo was EVERY ROLL even on the comeout.

I saw him buy in for $400 and when I left he had $1600.

He had plenty of spectators (not a ton, but about 4 maybe) and nobody else was shooting, just him.

I enjoyed watching him play, and it was one of those types of plays that was built on the desire to get paid from not rolling a seven, yo, or ace-deuce.

He basically was putting the green chips of his pay in the rack and the red and white chips on the prop bets.

Not a sophisticated strategy. Not a good strategy (except that he was at $25 bets on the 4 and 10).

Looking at the edge per roll, though:

$5 pass line -- 0.41% or $0.02
$10 hi-lo -- 13.89% or $1.39
$160 across -- 0.33% * $50 + 1.11% * $50 + 0.46% * $60 = $0.16 + $0.55 + $0.28 = $0.99
optional $4 yo -- $0.44

Total cost per roll for strategy $0.02 + $1.39 + $0.99 + $0.44 = $2.84 max, $1.41 min, $2.40 median
Total rolls I observed: approximately 50
Approximate cost while I watched for strategy: $125

So if you consider that he won about $1200, it could have been $1325 if there were no edges.

$2.84 / ( $5 + $10 + $160 + $4 ) = 1.5% per roll on a composite basis. That's about twice as cheap as having $180 on a european roulette wheel.

So would I advocate this strategy? No.

Does it totally suck? 1.5% edge per resolution with a resolution on every roll isn't horrible. His big pays were on the hi-lo and he hit about 5 while I watched. You can focus on the edge or you can focus on whatever you want. The way I look at the game, though, is edge per roll. And I like to stay under 0.5% myself. But if you want to go up to 1.5% edge per roll on craps and try to get paid frequently, HEY, I have seen it work!!!!

LOTS OF STUFF WORKS!! It really does.

But on this forum, you're going to find more folks splitting the hairs over the numbers and making advise based on a lifetime of play.

If you want to gamble and roll the dice for a couple of hours and have fun, look at the total edge per roll for all the bets put together and make up your own mind if you like how you're gambling.

That's my view.

Most math guys would focus on the $10 hi-lo every roll based on the percentage. But whatever. He had fun.

Best chance to win is still bold-play. But he got some money's worth for all the people watching and wondering how he made what seemed like a stupid way to play make him money.
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