100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 22nd, 2014 at 7:08:51 PM permalink
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/

I forgot the reason the Wizard recommended Continuous Come so I went to WOO site to refresh my memory.
it no longer lists Continuous Come?!

So refresh my memory. Why was Continuous Come recommended?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
sodawater
sodawater
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April 22nd, 2014 at 7:17:45 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/

I forgot the reason the Wizard recommended Continuous Come so I went to WOO site to refresh my memory.
it no longer lists Continuous Come?!

So refresh my memory. Why was Continuous Come recommended?



I don't know why or if it was, but my guess is that he wrote something along the lines of:

"if you must get more action on more numbers, it is better to make come bets with odds than place bets"
mustangsally
mustangsally
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April 22nd, 2014 at 8:35:55 PM permalink
Maybe in an Ask the Wizard it might say that about different bets.

I understood he was for the don't pass and don't come.
It was that way 3 years ago when I first started here.
He seemed to be the only one on the internet to say that back then.

It says this now
"Optimal strategy in craps is pretty simple.
Bet the don't pass and/or don't come and back it up laying the maximum odds. That is known as "playing the dark side," because the vast majority of players bet the opposite way.
If you don't want to be a contrarian, and enjoy going with the flow, then the pass and/or come bets, plus taking full odds, is almost as good."


He just says "don't come" and not don't come bets as he does with "or come bets"
but in a recent video he makes a don't bet every roll.
Sally
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Mission146
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April 22nd, 2014 at 8:41:16 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I don't know why or if it was, but my guess is that he wrote something along the lines of:

"if you must get more action on more numbers, it is better to make come bets with odds than place bets"



The Wizard did say something very similar to that.

If I had to guess, I would say the Wizard would advocate for strict DP/Pass betting otherwise, without the COME/DC bets, simply because less cash gets exposed to the House Edge all other things equal. I do believe he recommended the Come/DC only if one wants more action.

Further, I have it from him that I don't owe any push-ups if I like to Place 6/8, so that's also an apparently acceptable bet.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
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April 23rd, 2014 at 8:50:30 AM permalink
I think I used to say that that is how I play. However, I probably later felt the advice sounded too much like a betting system, and took it out.

Ultimately, my advice is to make don't pass and don't come bets only and always back them up by laying full odds. How many don't come bets you make and for how much is up to you. That doesn't matter in terms of return.

If you're going to follow the advice above for for pass and come bets, I won't shake my finger at you. Gambling is supposed to be fun, and if you get more fun betting with that table, then the slightly higher house edge is probably worth the price for the additional satisfaction.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
sodawater
sodawater
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April 23rd, 2014 at 10:45:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



Ultimately, my advice is to make don't pass and don't come bets only and always back them up by laying full odds. How many don't come bets you make and for how much is up to you. That doesn't matter in terms of return.

If you're going to follow the advice above for for pass and come bets, I won't shake my finger at you. Gambling is supposed to be fun, and if you get more fun betting with that table, then the slightly higher house edge is probably worth the price for the additional satisfaction.



I don't see why you even bother to make this distinction. If you bet $10,000 lifetime at craps (line bets), the difference between right and wrong betting will amount to exactly $1 in expected loss. This is assuming you always put don't bets back up when they tie. (I've never seen anyone pull them down and walk away after a tie, so safe assumption.)

Saving $1 over the course of $10,000 bet is not really worth discussing. You could save that dollar in so many other, easier ways than to even make it a factor in deciding which line bet to make.

Also, if you're making come bets with right betting, there is a certain probability the dealer will forget to move your come to a point number. This beneficial mistake doesn't exist for don't come. I bet that the occasional dealer error more than makes up for the 0.01% difference in EV.
Wizard
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April 23rd, 2014 at 11:03:09 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I don't see why you even bother to make this distinction.



If I didn't specifically say the don't pass/come is the "optimal strategy" I'd get swamped with perfectionists taking me to task for it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
sodawater
sodawater
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April 23rd, 2014 at 11:14:03 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

If I didn't specifically say the don't pass/come is the "optimal strategy" I'd get swamped with perfectionists taking me to task for it.



good point
mustangsally
mustangsally
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April 23rd, 2014 at 11:53:04 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I don't see why you even bother to make this distinction. If you bet $10,000 lifetime at craps (line bets), the difference between right and wrong betting will amount to exactly $1 in expected loss. This is assuming you always put don't bets back up when they tie. (I've never seen anyone pull them down and walk away after a tie, so safe assumption.)

Yucko! "exactly $1 in expected loss"

That means my spreadsheet is wrong
I show -28/1980 - -27/1925 = -2/17325 = diff
$10,000 * diff = -$1.154401154... not exactly -$1
Ah, got it to -$1 exactly using =ROUNDDOWN(M39*M38,0)

$10,000,000 * diff = -$1154.401154
(This is for the $500 pass bettor I watched at Mohegun Sun last year, never took odds, says they do not help you win your pass line bet and then he winked at me as he lost his bet)

Of course there are many that do bet way more than $500 on the pass line.
I hear some basketball greats, no name names, bet $10,000 on the pass line as easy as I bet $5 there too ;)

Oh well
Sally Oh
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sodawater
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April 23rd, 2014 at 12:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Yucko! "exactly $1 in expected loss"

That means my spreadsheet is wrong
I show -28/1980 - -27/1925 = -2/17325 = diff
$10,000 * diff = -$1.154401154... not exactly -$1
Ah, got it to -$1 exactly using =ROUNDDOWN(M39*M38,0)



Lol... My model assumes you find 15 cents on the floor over the course of your lifetime of betting $10,000

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