Full Proof Craps system
Place a dollar on the 12. Loses..progressively increase each bet a dollar for each loss in a row....1 then 2 then 3 etc until it hits. Say you get to 30 dollars....you win....yes you spent 435 dollars to get there but you yield a winning of 465 bucks...Anyone have experience with this? Obviously for each win you bring it back to 1 dollar.
Let me ask you this:
The chances of getting a 12 are 35 losers and 1 winner. But they only pay 30 to 1. So every single bet you make, you are taking the worst of it. How do you add up a bunch of negative numbers to get a positive number? If you know please PM me.
Quote: Tim1492I know how to spell..
No you don't.
Quote:lmao....But a 12 could not show up for a while...you need a sizable bankroll..
I think you mean infinite bankroll.
Quote:but it is nearly full proof..
See, there you go not knowing how to spell again.
Quote: Tim1492but if you go 50 rolls without a 12 that's just bad luck.
A full proof, or heck even a fool proof system....should never rely on having to avoid bad luck.
60 rolls: 18%
70 rolls: 14%
80 rolls: 10%
90 rolls: 8%
100 rolls: 6%
That's a fairly high risk of ruin.
Quote: Tim1492Well 50 rolls you need a bankroll of roughly 1300.....but if you go 50 rolls without a 12 that's just bad luck...But if you get to the 50th roll and it does hit...that's still 300 dollar profit however it will take much longer
What do you think that the probability of going 50 rolls without a 12 is?
Suppose that you are going to do this until you win 10 times, then quit (so, 10 12's will have been rolled). What do you think the probability of going 50 rolls without a 12 at some point during that time is?
The really funny part about this is that you are looking to risk n(n-1)/2 units to win 30*n units. If your math was as good as your spelling, you might notice that the first term is quadratic and the 2nd term is linear. This is not going to end well. (hint: what happens when your streak of no-12 rolls passes 61?).
But don't worry. That will never happen! If by "never" you mean, more often than 1 time in 6. Sort of like how 7's "never" roll at craps. I don't understand why everyone just doesn't win money at this game.
Quote: Sabretom2How's that for a nice, friendly, "welcome to the forum".
Oh, come on. He didn't even get suspended for violating rule 10.
Quote: Sabretom2How's that for a nice, friendly, "welcome to the forum".
Well, s2pid posts aren't generally welcomed with open arms around here.
I checked it out and the variance is wild, wild, wild. Your bankroll can be positive after a lot of rolls, thousands of rolls, but the big dips in the meantime are murderous. Long before 10,000 rolls the dive off the cliff ensues where you've lost 10s of thousands. The first image shows one high point. Could you have manned-up for the nearly six grand down in the meantime?
The last image shows the big dive you'll never come back from. This was the longest run I saw before I got bored, btw, other theoretical players did not do so good.
Quote: Tim1492So last night I was thinking about it...i'm new to the site by the way....However I came up with a full proof system. Its like the martingale but it can't lose....well it can in a short run but eventually is a winner.
Place a dollar on the 12. Loses..progressively increase each bet a dollar for each loss in a row....1 then 2 then 3 etc until it hits. Say you get to 30 dollars....you win....yes you spent 435 dollars to get there but you yield a winning of 465 bucks...Anyone have experience with this? Obviously for each win you bring it back to 1 dollar.
I've never tried it nor have I ever seen anyone else try it. Why not give it a try yourself? If I were to implement a system like this I would take myself to the roulette table and stick with one number. Sure the chances are 1/38 in roulette instead of 1/36 in craps but roulette pays 35:1 and craps pays 30:1. $1 roulette minimum may be more difficult to find but if you're that positive your system will work then it's worth finding $1 min.
Most craps tables I've played require you to have another bet placed besides the $1 bet on the 12. That has to be considered too.
Quote: Tim1492I'm being honest...I'm rather disappointed at all the scrutiny around here. It was something I thought about and seemed like a good idea. Where the spelling mistakes were? I have no idea but I am not to pleased with the reactions of others. Could be a little more gracious instead of self righteous pricks.
That's your problem right there. It's not a "good idea". Not even close. Any other silly idea would get the same reaction.
However, your post falls more into the category of betting systems; maybe you would have gotten a more receptive response there (but I doubt it).
More to the point, your thread title and first post were rather over confident. The tone of this site is very negative towards betting systems. However, I can tell you that "just say no" is probably the safest message regarding those. The fact that you know of and compared your idea to Martingale is a good sign you should have had a bit more caution.
Sorry.
Quote: Tim1492Could be a little more gracious instead of self righteous pricks.
Profanity + personal insult = five-day suspension
Quote: Tim1492I'm being honest...I'm rather disappointed at all the scrutiny around here. It was something I thought about and seemed like a good idea. Where the spelling mistakes were? I have no idea but I am not to pleased with the reactions of others. Could be a little more gracious instead of self righteous pricks.
Scrutiny is inevitable around here. Some people on this forum are infatuated with proving others wrong. Frequently I find it in the form a snarky comment or an overstated essay.
I posted a constructive response. Hopefully you read it that way.
Two things happened, first they stopped giving him the 60 rating (which they should have had all the time) and second, one friday the yo didn't come, he progressed right up to the table max $800 yo and still no yo...after a few 800 dollar shots he called it a day figuring this was the one bad day (he was still up for the three or four months he played). He came back the next day and still no yo....right up to 800 and quite a few shots at 800 until he broke down sobbing and had to be helped out. Never seen him again.,
Quote: ontariodealerI've told this story on another board before....a couple of years ago we had a player who tried this system on the yo. He would come to the high limit table and start with a $1 yo and then progress. First thing he did was piss off all the bigger players but he won for a few months. Not only that but to shoot he would go 30 pass, 30 DP and a buck on the 12 and was getting rated for 60 bucks. He played quite often and his wife loved him because they started getting some pretty good comps.
Two things happened, first they stopped giving him the 60 rating (which they should have had all the time) and second, one friday the yo didn't come, he progressed right up to the table max $800 yo and still no yo...after a few 800 dollar shots he called it a day figuring this was the one bad day (he was still up for the three or four months he played). He came back the next day and still no yo....right up to 800 and quite a few shots at 800 until he broke down sobbing and had to be helped out. Never seen him again.,
Was he martingale-ing? Or some other progression? (I'm just curious, how many steps from 1 to 800?)
Quote: kubikulannExcuse my less-than-good mastery of English. Maybe he was meaning "full of craps"?
WHAMMY!
Also tested Australian circuits and really got lost occasionally. While working on a trouble, an Australian girl named Angel asked me if I wanted her to POST me a VIEW. I said no thanks, having no idea what I had turned down. Later found out from one of the guys, that she had offered to MAIL me her PICTURE, in a bikini most likely.
I also found out that Canadians do say EH a lot, Not just in a Saturday Night Live skit, EH ?
Quote: ontariodealerNot only that but to shoot he would go 30 pass, 30 DP and a buck on the 12 and was getting rated for 60 bucks. He played quite often and his wife loved him because they started getting some pretty good comps.
... they stopped giving him the 60 rating (which they should have had all the time) ...
A player betting $30 pass and $30 dp simultaneously should be rated at $60 per hand. Why would you disagree with this? He is paying $60* the mean house edge for the line bets. In fact the casinos should love this customer. He pays double the house edge of a $30 player with the additional benefit that he can never win, he can only lose. He deserved the full $60 rating and frankly any casino employee who disagrees has shown he doesn't understand how house edge works.
Quote: sodawaterA player betting $30 pass and $30 dp simultaneously should be rated at $60 per hand. Why would you disagree with this? He is paying $60* the mean house edge for the line bets. In fact the casinos should love this customer. He pays double the house edge of a $30 player with the additional benefit that he can never win, he can only lose. He deserved the full $60 rating and frankly any casino employee who disagrees has shown he doesn't understand how house edge works.
Yeah but if he only bets when he is shooting, then he doesn't deserve the full rating. At a 6-player table he should be rated at $10 plus whatever he gets for his yo bets (which, honestly, should be multiplied by something since the house edge is so high on those bets)
1. Be female
2. Be hot
3. Have a basic understanding of craps
4. Buyin at a high roller table for $500 or so
5. Flirt with the players, get them to place bets for you
6. ????
7. +EV
Quote: sodawaterA player betting $30 pass and $30 dp simultaneously should be rated at $60 per hand. Why would you disagree with this? He is paying $60* the mean house edge for the line bets. In fact the casinos should love this customer. He pays double the house edge of a $30 player with the additional benefit that he can never win, he can only lose. He deserved the full $60 rating and frankly any casino employee who disagrees has shown he doesn't understand how house edge works.
Absolutely right sodawater. In Vegas, Wynn, Aria and all MGM casino, Caesars and Harrahs count the Doey/Don't as your avg bet! I have a friend who plays 1000 don't with 600 odds and 700 pass most of the time. He doesn't play full odds which is 6*..(Don't know why) His avg, 1,700.00... He does throw 25.00 on the 12 every other time which has saved him from big losses.
Quote: sodawaterA player betting $30 pass and $30 dp simultaneously should be rated at $60 per hand. Why would you disagree with this? He is paying $60* the mean house edge for the line bets. In fact the casinos should love this customer. He pays double the house edge of a $30 player with the additional benefit that he can never win, he can only lose. He deserved the full $60 rating and frankly any casino employee who disagrees has shown he doesn't understand how house edge works.
no you don't understand, stick to serving fries. He gets rated for his a % of his expected loss which in this case is minimal.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWas he martingale-ing? Or some other progression? (I'm just curious, how many steps from 1 to 800?)
he had a progression, I had seen a similar one years ago (larry edell maybe)....it goes up one unit at a time then eventually 2 units etc etc.
Quote: ontariodealerhe had a progression, I had seen a similar one years ago (larry edell maybe)....it goes up one unit at a time then eventually 2 units etc etc.
Any idea how many rolls to get to $800? Not that it matters, but I am curious to see how unlikely of a scenario getting to $800 twice in a row without winning is?
Quote: ontariodealerno you don't understand, stick to serving fries. He gets rated for his a % of his expected loss which in this case is minimal.
Expected loss of a player who bets $60 pass only: $60 * 1.41% = $0.85 per bet made
Expected loss of a player who bets $60 don't pass only: $60 * 1.36% = $0.82 per bet made
Expected loss of a player who bets $30 pass and $30 don't pass simultaneously : $30 * 1.41% + $30 * 1.36% = $0.83 combined per bet made
Care to apologize? Care to admit that you've worked in a casino for several years and STILL don't understand the grade-school math that pays your salary?
Quote: ontariodealerno you don't understand, stick to serving fries. He gets rated for his a % of his expected loss which in this case is minimal.
What do you mean his theo remains unchanged. On a roll of 12 he loses the pass bet and push the don't pass. That means 1/36 rolls he will lose 1/2 of his bet or 1.39% which is the average of the expected loss from a pass and don't pass. Any other scenario he gets 0 dollars so yeah his expected loss is hardly minimal it is exactly what it would be expected to be. He doesn't change theo all he did is change variance.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAny idea how many rolls to get to $800? Not that it matters, but I am curious to see how unlikely of a scenario getting to $800 twice in a row without winning is?
I don't count the rolls but he was there 4 to 5 hours, the second day all by himself.
