Odds question...
I am very curious about the odds of a shooter (or shooters) who establish a Point and then IMMEDIATELY 7ing-out on the very next roll 4 times in a row. Has to be astronomical (or almost), right?
Thanks to one and all for your help! :)
Quote: ROBROY01Hi! I'm new to this forum and there seems to be no search option that I am aware of to search for the answer to my question. So, sorry if this is a repeat question! :(
I am very curious about the odds of a shooter (or shooters) who establish a Point and then IMMEDIATELY 7ing-out on the very next roll 4 times in a row. Has to be astronomical (or almost), right?
Thanks to one and all for your help! :)
If you look at the top (dark blue) row just under the Wizard of Odds logo, towards the right you will see "search". That will likely help. If you search PSO, that's what the craps guys on here call that, fwiw.
6 rolls will be a 7, and 30 won't, so 16.6667% chance of the 7 being next.
If you take those times each other 4 times (since the dice have no memory), that should give you 1.5241548544147233691512087527355e-4 or 1 in 6561.0131
Quote: beachbumbabs24 rolls will set a point, and 12 won't, so 66.6667% chance of rolling the first point.
6 rolls will be a 7, and 30 won't, so 16.6667% chance of the 7 being next.
If you take those times each other 4 times (since the dice have no memory), that should give you 1.5241548544147233691512087527355e-4 or 1 in 6561.0131
WOW! You must be the Wizard himself! ;) THANK YOU!!!
NoQuote: ROBROY01I am very curious about the odds of a shooter (or shooters) who establish a Point and then IMMEDIATELY 7ing-out on the very next roll 4 times in a row.
Has to be astronomical (or almost), right?
I get also
24/36 * 6/36 = 1/9
1/1/9^4 = 1 in 6,561
that is also just for the very next 4 shooters.
edit:
How about the very next 10 shooters?
that would be about 1 in 1036
20 shooters?
1 in 432
I see a trend here
How about the shooter that rolls a 2,3 or 12 on the first roll, then establishes a point and then 7 outs?
Does that count against or for your thoughts?
Quote: ROBROY01WOW! You must be the Wizard himself! ;) THANK YOU!!!
More like a Witch. But a beautiful one.
Quote: ROBROY01WOW! You must be the Wizard himself! ;) THANK YOU!!!
Everyone else will find that highly amusing, but thank you. I am a grasshopper.
Quote: 7crapsNo
I get also
24/36 * 6/36 = 1/9
1/1/9^4 = 1 in 6,561
that is also just for the very next 4 shooters.
How about the next 10 shooters?
How about the shooter that rolls a 2,3 or 12 on the first roll, then establishes a point and then 7 outs?
Does that count against or for your thoughts?
No. I wouldn't be playing the Pass/Don't Pass line.
You see, I saw a series of videos on YouTube for Al "The Professor" Kaufman. His "444 System" has this kind of losing scenario, be he never showed his math. It seemed pretty simple enough for you guys. I wonder why he didn't do it, although he said he was a "math genius"! LOL He says he's been running a gambling school in Vegas for some time and that he's taught thousands of players.
Well, the odds seem pretty good in our favor now, although his bankroll requirements are HUGE. What I am really interested in, are his Intermediate/Advanced systems. Intermediate will have 1 loss every 24 hrs. and Advanced will have a loss every 72 hrs. Anyone know anything about them?
Thanks again for all of your help, gentlemen! :)
yes, I have seen it.Quote: ROBROY01Al "The Professor" Kaufman.
His "444 System" has this kind of losing scenario,
fun stuff.
he only talks about winning in his videos and when you do lose your wins and comps will be higher than your losses.
so he claims.
that is why he does NOT show any math for more than one session
His overall results are terrible.
There are better ways to win and lose, but maybe not as fun as his.
He likes bullets
His Blackjack method was talked about here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/15825-al-the-professor-kaufman-3-questions/
Quote: 7crapsyes, I have seen it.
fun stuff.
he only talks about winning in his videos and when you do lose your wins and comps will be higher than your losses.
so he claims.
that is why he does NOT show any math for more than one session
His overall results are terrible.
There are better ways to win and lose, but maybe not as fun as his.
He likes bullets
His Blackjack method was talked about here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/15825-al-the-professor-kaufman-3-questions/
Yeah, I caught that video before as well, but I knew I wouldn't be too happy with that method because it is VERY possible to lose MANY hands in a row at Blackjack.
In one of his videos, he stated that he has methods for Craps, Blackjack, and Roulette. However, I think he is ONLY focusing on Craps right now.
So, what is the gist of his other methods? Is it worth the $500 asking price?
Thanks again! You guys are AWESOME!!!! :)
Quote: beachbumbabs24 rolls will set a point, and 12 won't, so 66.6667% chance of rolling the first point.
6 rolls will be a 7, and 30 won't, so 16.6667% chance of the 7 being next.
If you take those times each other 4 times (since the dice have no memory), that should give you 1.5241548544147233691512087527355e-4 or 1 in 6561.0131
So Babs, am I correct in my math that one would have a probability of that NOT happening as 98.47585%? Thanx!
I have not seen any other than his videos. I would guessQuote: ROBROY01So, what is the gist of his other methods?
Is it worth the $500 asking price?
Bigger bankrolls and different type bets.
Not at all difficult to turn $6000 into $7000 one time.
on average maybe 86 out of 100
The challenge is many many times
His $500 fee is for an hour lesson or so at his school, IIRC
Time is money. You would be paying for his time.
It may be great entertainment.
Only you can decide if $500 would be worth the experience.
it might just be
Quote: ROBROY01Yeah, I caught that video before as well, but I knew I wouldn't be too happy with that method because it is VERY possible to lose MANY hands in a row at Blackjack.
In one of his videos, he stated that he has methods for Craps, Blackjack, and Roulette. However, I think he is ONLY focusing on Craps right now.
So, what is the gist of his other methods? Is it worth the $500 asking price?
Thanks again! You guys are AWESOME!!!! :)
I would have to say that you would be wasting your $500, and you will get more free information here and on the WizardofOdds.com companion site than Professor Kaufman could ever hope to provide. Then take your $500 and try it at a casino. I would suggest you spend some time (it will take you weeks) to read just the "craps" threads in this forum, learn what you can there, and go play. But the mathematicians on here will tell you that every craps bet is independent of every other, and so there is no system that will turn that into a positive. There is no series of bets that will turn positive. There are no predictable trends, and the dice have no memory. So anybody selling a system, like Professor Kaufman is, is simply earning money off of you by claiming to teach you one that will work.
Quote: ROBROY01So Babs, am I correct in my math that one would have a probability of that NOT happening as 98.47585%? Thanx!
Rob,
More like 99.9985% of the time it will not happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WorleGIgO1g
Quote: BuzzardWell, except for this winning craps system.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WorleGIgO1g
HAHAHAHAHA! Good one, Buzz! hehehe ;)
Quote: beachbumbabsRob,
More like 99.9985% of the time it will not happen.
So, a pretty good hit-and-run system, but nothing long-term. Right?
So I'm curious. What system do you play Craps with?
Quote: ROBROY01So, a pretty good hit-and-run system, but nothing long-term. Right?
So I'm curious. What system do you play Craps with?
I'm not a craps player; I like cards.
IF I were to play, which I've done twice in my life so far, I think I like what Alan Mendelson was talking about, where you place a pass bet and a fire bet, then start hedging at the 4th point (search recent craps threads; you'll see it within the last couple of weeks). I also like the place 6 and/or 8, depending on the point, along with max odds behind my place bet. But I'm a rank beginner, so let some of the others suggest ideas. I'm not a system player at all.
I actually ran a sim on this some time agoQuote: ROBROY01Al "The Professor" Kaufman. His "444 System"
to see the probability of doubling the starting bankroll before ruin.
I recall it was about 31% or so. Not good at all.
Just pass with some odds is about 45%
added:
This sim ended after a double-up on the starting bankroll of $6206
or after losing the 4 step progression.
That is why after some sessions ended, like #2, there was still something left, but not enough to start over.
And because he only bets once a point is established
the probability of no win from all the place bets is 6/30 or 20% {2,3,11,12} are meaningless
0.20^4 = 0.0016 or 1 in 625
99.84% is does not happen 4 times in a row.
That sounds good to start with but the chance of winning 432 times in a row is only 50% - a coin flip
How much can you make those 432 times. Does it cover a total loss?
do the math and see?
It is all gambling and luck.
Quote: 7crapsI actually ran a sim on this some time ago
to see the probability of doubling the starting bankroll before ruin.
I recall it was about 30% or so. Not good at all.
Just pass with some odds is about 45%
I would have to look up that sim.
later after football
And because he only bets once a point is established
the probability of no win from all the place bets is 6/30 or 20% {2,3,11,12} are meaningless
0.20^4 = 0.0016 or 1 in 625
99.84% is does not happen 4 times in a row.
That sounds good to start with but the chance of winning 432 times in a row is only 50% - a coin flip
How much can you make those 432 times. Does it cover a total loss?
do the math and see?
It is all gambling and luck.
You know, when I was watching his 444 video, I couldn't help but think it would've been so much better by adding a Field bet to it - making it an Iron Cross.That would've increased his chances to a 5:1 advantage, instead of 4:1. What are your thoughts on this? I know it would've increased bankroll significantly.
Speaking of bankroll, it also looks like he's using a Grand Marty too. Wouldn't it have been better to just use a regular Marty and increase his base unit by one?
Would ANY of these changes made a difference to make this system more viable or not?
Quote: ROBROY01Would ANY of these changes made a difference to make this system more viable or not?
Craps is a negative expectation game. No system is going to change that.
Quote: Beethoven9thCraps is a negative expectation game. No system is going to change that.
Thank you Helpy Helperton. OF COURSE it's a negative expectation, but still we try. Personally, I feel it's about finding the best short-term system and tweaking it so it performs better. HELPFUL comments are appreciated. SHILLS STAY AWAY!!!!!!! AAAAAaaaaaaa......* ;)
so much better?Quote: ROBROY01You know, when I was watching his 444 video,
I couldn't help but think it would've been so much better by adding a Field bet to it - making it an Iron Cross.
That would've increased his chances to a 5:1 advantage, instead of 4:1.
What are your thoughts on this? I know it would've increased bankroll significantly.
it what way? winning more often
are you certain?
or going by just a thought.
it is not the chances of you winning something that matters
but how much you win when you do win
compared to
how much you lose when you do lose.
His bets after a loss are designed to produce a profit from one roll win andQuote: ROBROY01Speaking of bankroll, it also looks like he's using a Grand Marty too.
Wouldn't it have been better to just use a regular Marty and increase his base unit by one?
that has to cover the losses up to that point in the betting sequence.
So he increases his bet after a loss just enough to show a small profit and starts all over again.
probably not.Quote: ROBROY01Would ANY of these changes made a difference to make this system more viable or not?
to tweak his system to be better, he should be buying the 4 & 10 at and above the $30 level.
He actually places the 4&10 for $30, $125 and $660
Only a fool would do that
(fool = One who is deficient in judgment, sense or understanding)
that would win more when he wins and lower the required bankroll.
That fact right there shows his lack of understanding the bets available at Craps.
You really want to give this guy $500 for a lesson to win in a casino?
he does claim that.
"I'm the best (gambler) there is"
"I have what everybody wants. How to win in the casinos"
The Wizard of Odds makes no such claim.
I like being a fool
Quote: ROBROY01Thank you Helpy Helperton. OF COURSE it's a negative expectation, but still we try. Personally, I feel it's about finding the best short-term system and tweaking it so it performs better. HELPFUL comments are appreciated. SHILLS STAY AWAY!!!!!!! AAAAAaaaaaaa......* ;)
Who are people who point out that it's -EV shilling for?
If anything the people who tout short-term systems are the shills. It's the belief in this stuff that gets a lot more people to bet a lot more money on -EV games than they otherwise would.
Remember that if you keep going back to the casino over and over again, you are not playing a short-term system. You are playing a long-term system with a bunch of pauses in between. The only way it's short term is if you play for a bit, and then stop and never play again.
I have no problems with -EV games... it's just paying for entertainment. But to talk about betting systems as though they will stop you from losing money is dangerous. You need to treat craps in the same way that you treat going on vacation -- you pay your money and you have some fun.
You missed my point. No system & no amount of "tweaking" are going to help you. All you need to do is go here:Quote: ROBROY01Personally, I feel it's about finding the best short-term system and tweaking it so it performs better.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps
Look for the bets with the lowest House Edge, and there you go. No "system" needed.
+1Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf anything the people who tout short-term systems are the shills
Quote: 7craps
are you certain?
or going by just a thought.[/q
5:1 vs. 4:1? Yes, I am certain that is better. lol
[q/]probably not.
to tweak his system to be better, he should be buying the 4 & 10 at and above the $30 level.
He actually places the 4&10 for $30, $125 and $660
Only a fool would do that
(fool = One who is deficient in judgment, sense or understanding)
that would win more when he wins and lower the required bankroll.
I agree about Buying vs. Placing anything above $25
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWho are people who point out that it's -EV shilling for?
If anything the people who tout short-term systems are the shills. It's the belief in this stuff that gets a lot more people to bet a lot more money on -EV games than they otherwise would.
Remember that if you keep going back to the casino over and over again, you are not playing a short-term system. You are playing a long-term system with a bunch of pauses in between. The only way it's short term is if you play for a bit, and then stop and never play again.
I have no problems with -EV games... it's just paying for entertainment. But to talk about betting systems as though they will stop you from losing money is dangerous. You need to treat craps in the same way that you treat going on vacation -- you pay your money and you have some fun.
I agree! I have always thought of casinos as "Adult arcades" - entertainment only! :) Some shills sell systems AND lurk in the various forums!
Quote: Beethoven9thYou missed my point. No system & no amount of "tweaking" are going to help you. All you need to do is go here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps
Look for the bets with the lowest House Edge, and there you go. No "system" needed.
+1
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on "luck" or a method? At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.
IMO,Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBut to talk about betting systems as though they will stop you from losing money is dangerous.
Just another opinion without stating why and showing proof.
Al "the Professor" Kaufman
says things like:
"I'm the best (gambler) there is"
and there may be people that believe him 100% and the Wizard of Odds?
"What a Joker. he does not know what he is talking about". I have heard this one more than one time
especially talking about how to play Blackjack.
more from Al "the Professor" Kaufman
"I have what everybody wants. How to win in the casinos"
"trust me I'm The Professor
I've unturned every stone and every rock
I've gone over these things 24 hours a day with mathematicians
I know what I am talking about
I'm here to help you
Please, don't out-think me."
OP either believes or he does not or wants something different for why?
we do not know
One must prove these things to themselves.
The Wizard will not do it for you
Neither will I
It should be about the truth of what really happens.
the proof of the truth.
for example:
The longer one plays at a -EV game, the less chance he has of ending a winner, the greater chance he has of being a net loser.
is that true?
or is this true
no one can win playing -ev games
why?
where is the proof?
what is house edge and why does the casino short pay it's players when they win?
is this true?
why?
*facepalm*Quote: ROBROY01Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on "luck" or a method?
Uh...craps is a game of 100% chance. No "method" is going to change that.
Quote: ROBROY01Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on "luck" or a method? At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.
What do you mean by "a better chance"? A better chance to do what?
There are certainly systems that give you a better chance of winning for a session. Martingale does this. The downside is that you are risking a lot more than you stand to win. So your wins are common and small, and your losses are rare and big. If you want to win 90% of the time, I can give you a system to do that, so long as you're happy with your losses being much, much larger than your wins.
Beethoven's "system" of making the lowest house edge bets gives him a "better chance" in that he will lose less money in the long term.
what about a "lucky method"Quote: ROBROY01Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on "luck" or a method?
a better chance of ???Quote: ROBROY01At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.
what?
winning more often?
playing longer with same bankroll
playing longer and winning more often, more than losing?
gaining more in comps?
winning more and losing less?
losing more and winning less?
when you lose you lose BIG?
the best chances of coming out ahead after X number of bets made?
state what you are really after
then that can be looked at more closely
"method gambling"
that is the Professor's term he also uses
I'm just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhat do you mean by "a better chance"? A better chance to do what?
+1Quote: 7crapsa better chance of ???
what?
Quote: ROBROY01I'm just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?
Familiar with what? You keep using the word "better". What exactly are you talking about??
Quote: 7crapswhat about a "lucky method"
a better chance of ???
what?
winning more often?
playing longer with same bankroll
playing longer and winning more often, more than losing?
gaining more in comps?
winning more and losing less?
losing more and winning less?
when you lose you lose BIG?
the best chances of coming out ahead after X number of bets made?
state what you are really after
then that can be looked at more closely
"method gambling"
that is the Professor's term he also uses
7craps, in Al's 444 video, (while playing one of his progressed levels after a loss) a 4:1 chance of winning the very next roll after establishing your Point and being able to drop back to Level One. IMO adding the Field bet and bring your advantage up from 4:1 to 5:1, to me, is a much better chance of winning that bet. Understand now?
Method gambling vs. System gambling...to me it's all the same. Is there a diff between a method and a system? Seems like I heard a long time ago that there was. I think it's splitting hairs for the average Punter.
Not me.Quote: ROBROY01I'm just curious what those better systems are all about.
Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?
Then for $500 you will know.
most piss away $500 every year. some every month.
and you may have way more fun playing the Professor's way
for as long as your bankroll lasts
than the boring, IMO, way the Wizard says to play Craps.
Line bets and max odds. yuk
Good Luck
Quote: Beethoven9th+1
Familiar with what? You keep using the word "better". What exactly are you talking about??
Read the previous posts from the beginning. Your answer is there on more than one occasion. :)
Unfortunately, no one else knows what you're talking about either. You need to define "better" for us.Quote: ROBROY01Read the previous posts from the beginning. Your answer is there on more than one occasion. :)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhat do you mean by "a better chance"? A better chance to do what?
Quote: 7crapsa better chance of ???
what?
Quote: Beethoven9thFamiliar with what? You keep using the word "better". What exactly are you talking about??
Quote: Beethoven9thUnfortunately, no one else knows what you're talking about either. You need to define "better" for us.
*Sighs* As I previously stated, Al says he has these "better" systems of play than the free "444 System" we have been discussing in this thread. He calls them "Intermediate", which would lose once every 24 hrs. and "Advanced", which would lose once every 72 hrs.
If other people don't know what I am talking about either, then "they" haven't expressed it. Look again! It's there! Keep up! :)
Quote: ROBROY01If other people don't know what I am talking about either, then "they" haven't expressed it.
Yes, they have. Reread my post.
Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: ROBROY01If other people don't know what I am talking about either, then "they" haven't expressed it.
Yes, they have. Reread my post.
Nooooo. That was about something else! LOL
Quote: ROBROY01Nooooo. That was about something else! LOL
Nope, they were responding directly to a post that you wrote to ME.
LOL!
Let me see.Quote: ROBROY017craps, in Al's 444 video, (while playing one of his progressed levels after a loss) a 4:1 chance of winning the very next roll after establishing your Point and being able to drop back to Level One.
IMO adding the Field bet and bring your advantage up from 4:1 to 5:1, to me, is a much better chance of winning that bet.
Understand now?
The winning probability of the 4:1 is only 80%. 24/30 (24 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose)
One still has a 20% chance
of losing all 6 place bets before winning just one of them.
(2 out of 10. so you are down 12 units. does winning 8 out of 10 cover the losses?)
so now at 5:1
30/36 chance of winning (30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose)
is 83.3%.
That is it
not impressed at all with the small increase in winning percentage
with the increase of the number of bets
verses the increase in the net loss.
I am a believer in
fewer larger bets than
many smaller bets
more fun in length of play and hitting win goals for me
Quote: Beethoven9th^^^^^^^^^^^
LOL!
IMO, Professor Al is the snake-oil-salesman. He wants to sell you something, so he makes claims, he gives away samples, he might even have guys who did what he told them and got immediate results. That their results were due to variance (luck) in the short term, not due to him having a foolproof winning method, is to him beside the point.
He's not in the business of gambling and winning. He's in the business of selling guys a system. No different from selling time-shares, snake oil, or cars; it's worth the value the buyer places on it. If you want to spend the 500 to look behind the curtain, it's your 500.
Quote: Beethoven9thNope, they were responding directly to a post that you wrote to ME.
*Sighs again* Beethoven, you are still confused. 7Craps and I were discussing how Al's 444 System "might" be a bit better if a Field bet we added. He wanted clarification on how I thought it might be better. THAT was what he was questioning. What YOU were questioning was was my statement about his so-called "better" systems he says he has from quite a while back and again just a few short posts ago.
You see? THIS is why I hate forums! They have such bad reps! Just because I am new to this forum does NOT mean that I am new to gambling in general or Craps. I am what you would call an "advantage player". I think I got my numbers question answered. I will still play my own systems. I was merely exploring what else was out there because I was bored.
Thanks to everyone who gave helpful advice. :)
P.S. Beethoven, you say Craps is a negative expectation game and yet here you are. Where is the logic in that? LOL You also say you hate stupid arguments, and yet you are so good at perpetuating them? WOW.
Bye. I have better things to do now. If not, then I will INVENT them! LOL
Sorry, but they posed the SAME question that I did. Nice try.Quote: ROBROY01*Sighs again* Beethoven, you are still confused.
Sure you are! (wink wink)Quote: ROBROY01I am what you would call an "advantage player".
Coming to this thread and making a factual statement is illogical to you? Huh?!?Quote: ROBROY01P.S. Beethoven, you say Craps is a negative expectation game and yet here you are. Where is the logic in that?
