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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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November 17th, 2013 at 9:25:31 PM permalink
an introduction
Al 'The Professor' Kaufman

"I'm the best (gambler) there is"

"I have what everybody wants. How to win in the casinos"

also: stop losing at the casinos
The Gambling Professor


The Gambling Professor from
http://www.thegamblingprofessor.com/



Now from the video collection on YouTube (yeah! now has transcriptions)
Blackjack system


Q: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?
Answer Al: It's virtually impossible.

Professor Al also says this:
11:05
Now remember it's possible to lose 8 hands in a row
it doesn't happen that often
But you have to be there when it happens
and remember we are cutting down the odds
because it has to happen the second you get to the table


Question #1: agree with The Professor?
Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?
and are they different playing at one table or over ten tables?
I like this one. I get about 1 in 161 tables. 1 / 0.53^8

so we win about $12 (high) on average per table 160 times and lose $2380 one time.
$1920 + (-$2380) = a net loss on average
will comps make up for this? Comps playing an average 2.07 hands per table?
what casino now?

if our average win per table increases to $15, that = a profit of $2400 ($15*160)
about equals our expected (average) one loss at $2380.
Now to get a $15 average win, means we have to bet more and deviate from the Professor's unit betting chart.

I think The Professor needs to go back to the drawing (white) board

Looking at the binomial probability distribution will help out.
The chance of NO tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.5856%
The chance of just ONE table losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.9025%
Wow! see that. the same!
but they do not add up to 100%.

The chance of TWO or MORE tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables is 26.5119%
better than 1 in 4

The Professor's method IS gambling!

more (that do not want to watch the video)
0:24
"Hi
I'm Al "The Gambling Professor"
I reside here in Las Vegas because I gamble for a living.

I'm probably the best there is.
and I'm going to make you a winner in the casino today
IF you listen to my rules."

He is a Method Gambler.

From the video:
"We are looking to earn money.
you need horrific bad luck to lose"

2:44 has the BJ Basic Strategy chart
BJ bankroll $2380
starting bet $5
goal is to win 1 hand, before losing 8 in a row,
10 times for about $100 earned winnings.
after the first win, move on to another table.

No splitting, never double downs.
Play 10 tables you stop
repeat this 5 times a day

Progression after each loss go to the next level.
on a win start back at $5
5,15,35,75,150,300,600,1200
works for Craps too!

19:00
but what are the odds of him sitting down
the first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?
It's virtually impossible.


at 20:40
Dealer misplays his hand.
a J showing. did not peek for an Ace and hit players hand with a 9
That 9 belongs in the very next hand.
That next hand would have pushed instead of a win.

22:10
"Most of the time you are going to win between the 2nd and 3rd hand."
Sally says
This statement is also an error. Everyone should know the player wins about 47% of the hands (not counting pushes)
right after the last win. (the relative frequency from a frequency table)
To win on the 2nd or 3rd hand is only about 38% chance
It is about 72% of hands won happen on the 1st and the 2nd hand played
in the video, 15 hands did just that for a 75% hit rate.
Just watching the two tables played in the video, the player won 12 out of 20 hands on the very first hand, that is 60% for this small sample size.

Back to Al
"This is a piece of cake.
You can make a living.
You can make $500 a day with a $2380 bankroll"


Looks like The Professor shows no math but speaks of it and his experiences gambling.
Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?

Sally

Questions are again

Question #1: agree with The Professor?

Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?

Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?
I Heart Vi Hart
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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November 17th, 2013 at 9:35:27 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


Questions are again

Question #1: agree with The Professor?

Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?

Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?


I don't know the answer to #2, but the answer to #1 is hell no, and #3 would be hilarious but not worth the Wizard's time.

Bonus Question #4: is this guy just another asshat systems seller who happens to look more professional?
DING DING DING
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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November 17th, 2013 at 9:43:39 PM permalink
What tickles my pickle is (if the background is found to be authentic) he films inside a convention space of some or the other casino.

Did he get permission to film such a spot inside a casino? What casino would give a charletan such as this the opportunity to sell his wares using a casino facility?

Why does he not quote the actual math involved? If someone asks you what the odds are of losing 8 hands in a row, should you not be able to present that in a factual way for everyone to understand?

I must admit I didn't watch the video and I have absolutely NO intention of doing so either. This dude is high off his ass is my final summation.

Thanks
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 17th, 2013 at 10:07:08 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
kewlj
kewlj
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November 17th, 2013 at 11:07:24 PM permalink
Do we even know if this fella is still living? The video appears quite old. Cars were driving down Fremont Street between The Fremont, The Mint And Golden Nugget. Before my time in Vegas, but Wikipedia says the Mint closed in 88, about the time I was heading off to kindergarden. :-)
Perdition
Perdition
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November 17th, 2013 at 11:50:21 PM permalink
He put this up as of 3 months ago

Craps lesson

Seems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.

He has another one where he bet the pass/don't pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ.

If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn't you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that's why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.
bahdbwoy
bahdbwoy
Joined: Aug 23, 2013
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November 18th, 2013 at 4:02:24 AM permalink
except most $5 table limits are $500? i have not been to that many diff casinos so just from what i have seen..

i have done this progression on craps after 1 pass made and have bust at $300 ;) (so 7 made mostly naturals).
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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November 18th, 2013 at 8:19:37 AM permalink
Quote: Perdition

He put this up as of 3 months ago

Craps lesson

Seems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.

He has another one where he bet the pass/don't pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ.

If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn't you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that's why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.


Any casino would welcome this guy's action. Unless the "secret sauce" in his system is actually cheating (capping/pinching etc.), he would be a gold mine for the casinos and they would be stupid to back him off.

There's an old quote...something about casinos sending a limo to the airport for anyone with a "system."
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 18th, 2013 at 8:22:48 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 18th, 2013 at 9:22:15 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


Questions are again

Question #1: agree with The Professor?

Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?

Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?



Question 1: I agree that The Professor is a clown.

His system is just a four-step +1 Grand Martingale that fades into a regular Martingale on the fifth step. The aspect of that system that really confuses me is, "Why not just continue to double and add one base unit?" You're already down that amount of money on a system base of $5 in the first place, you're already risking (up to) $2,380, so why not continue to increase the unit and risk a little more?

Question 2: According to the Wizard:

http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/

The probability of a win, discluding pushes, is .4636 which makes the probability of a loss .5364.

Those probabilities aren't going to be exactly right because Professor Clown refuses to double or split hands. The refusal to split is going to increase his overall probability of losing a hand, while the refusal to double is actually going to INCREASE his probability of winning a hand in many situations. For example, if you hit a 9 or 10 against a dealer showing 8, then many of those hits are going to result in a total less than seventeen, in which event, BS would then suggest that the player take another hit. The EV of NOT doubling will be worse, but the actual win rate will be better.

I'm just not sure how this offsets, so I'm going to use the Wizard's numbers assuming proper Basic Strategy.

The overall probability of losing eight in a row (assuming proper BS): (.5364)^8 = 0.00685346427756715 = 1/0.00685346427756715 = 1 in 145.912

AND:

This is a very rough approximation of what will happen:

Step 1: WIN (Wins $5) = .4636 * 5 = 2.318

Step 2: LOSS/WIN (Wins $10) = (.5364 * .4636) * 10 = 2.4867504

Step 3: LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $15) = (.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 15 = 2.0008393718399997

Step 4: LOSS/LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $20) = ((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 20 = 1.431000318739968

Step 5-8 (Step 8 WIN): (All will win $20)

((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 20 = 0.7675885709721187

((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 20 = 0.41173450946944445

((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 20 = 0.22085439087941003

((.5364)^7 * .4636) * 20 = 0.11846629526771554

STEP 8 LOSS:

(.5364)^8 * (-2380) = -16.311244980609817

OVERALL ER: 2.318 + 2.4867504 + 2.0008393718399997 + 1.431000318739968 + 0.7675885709721187 + 0.41173450946944445 + 0.22085439087941003 + 0.11846629526771554 -16.311244980609817 = -6.556011123441159

Do I want to determine the average total bet?

Not really, but I guess I will.

(.4636 * 5) = 2.318

(.5364 * .4636) * 20 = 4.9735008

(.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 55 = 7.336411030079999

((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 130 = 9.301502071809793

((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 280 = 10.746239993609663

((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 580 = 11.94030077461389

((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 1180 = 13.030409061885192

(WIN OR LOSE) (.5364)^7 * 2380 = 30.408734117467965

2.318 + 4.9735008 + 7.336411030079999 + 9.301502071809793 + 10.746239993609663 + 11.94030077481389 + 13.030409061885192 + 30.408734117467965 = 90.05509784966651

***DISCLAIMER***

-The effects of not splitting or doubling are reasonably well-incorporated into the Expected Loss because the Win/Loss rate accounts for perfect Basic Strategy, but perfect Basic Strategy would alter the bet amounts at each level (as the possibility of a Split or Double would necessarily increase the average bet amount, per level) so I think my formula approximates not splitting/doubling well-enough for the analysis of what will be a losing system anyway.

-The second disclaimer is that I did not include the possibility of being dealt a winning Natural into the calculations. While this results in inexact numbers with respect to the Expected Loss value (though it does not change the average bet) there's no indication that The Professor's method relies upon the player being dealt a Natural in any way to work, and in most cases, the player will either win or lose eight in a row without a Natural being involved at all.

-If anyone wants to figure out the Expected Loss of each run of the system factoring in Naturals, (I don't) then determine the probability of a winning Natural and subtract same from the overall probability of winning. Multiply the amount to be won (per level) by the overall probability of winning by any means other than a winning Natural and add the result of the amount to be won with a winning Natural multiplied by the probability of a winning Natural.

Sorry, I'm not doing it. Too labor intensive for what is guaranteed to be a losing system (not to mention a horrible way to play) anyway.

QUESTION 3:

No, why should he? The Professor has clearly not visited the Blackjack page of www.wizardofodds.com, or he would not be playing a system in which the player refuses to Double/Split to begin with.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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