How often do you see PSO in the casino?
Maybe my perception is skewed, but after witnessing hundreds of shooters roll at the tables, I remember seeing the dreaded "point-seven-out" only a handful of times.
I've been messing around with a new system where I risk $650 immediately after a point is established by buying the 4 & 10 for $100, placing the 5 & 9 for $100, and placing the 6 & 8 for $120. Once one of the numbers gets rolled, I take everything down and wait for a new point.
Using both random.org and real dice for my simulation, I've been able to win over $12K. I'm surprised my bankroll never got lower than -$1070.
If I manage to win over $50K through more simulations, I'll probably try this system in the casino (risking $64 per roll instead of $650).
I have seen the other end too many times.Quote: drjohnnyI know the odds of sevening out immediately after the point is 1/6 according to the math, but it seems much less than that in real life.
Maybe my perception is skewed, but after witnessing hundreds of shooters roll at the tables, I remember seeing the dreaded "point-seven-out" only a handful of times.
that 1/6 probability for one shooter after setting a point
has a wide range over say 120 shooters (about 1000 dice rolls on average)
the math says the StDev of P (at 1/6) = 3.4021% when N = 120
so a 3SD range (99.7%) should be 6.4605% to 26.8729% over
120 shooters (lots of variation)
or in numbers
8 to 32 7outs right after the shooters' first point is established.
So I agree that around 8 could be the handful you have seen
a fun part of playing Craps.Quote: drjohnnyI've been messing around with a new system
Your new fun system will not *work* all (100%) the time
so do not play scared
and have fun with it
Good Luck
Quote: drjohnnyI know the odds of sevening out immediately after the point is 1/6 according to the math, but it seems much less than that in real life.
Maybe my perception is skewed, but after witnessing hundreds of shooters roll at the tables, I remember seeing the dreaded "point-seven-out" only a handful of times.
"Seems", "remember". Those are the key words. I guarantee it won't "seem" that way if you try out your new system with real money, and you'll certainly remember the result!
Quote: drjohnnyI know the odds of sevening out immediately after the point is 1/6 according to the math, but it seems much less than that in real life.
Maybe my perception is skewed, but after witnessing hundreds of shooters roll at the tables, I remember seeing the dreaded "point-seven-out" only a handful of times.
I've been messing around with a new system where I risk $650 immediately after a point is established by buying the 4 & 10 for $100, placing the 5 & 9 for $100, and placing the 6 & 8 for $120. Once one of the numbers gets rolled, I take everything down and wait for a new point.
Using both random.org and real dice for my simulation, I've been able to win over $12K. I'm surprised my bankroll never got lower than -$1070.
If I manage to win over $50K through more simulations, I'll probably try this system in the casino (risking $64 per roll instead of $650).
I have tried this with $640 across, both in real life and in lots of WinCraps sessions. When I do a WinCraps session, I have it play for 500 throws, which is roughly 4 to 6 hours of play.
Bottom line: You can book quite a few wins playing this way, but the PSO is devastating when it happens. And when it happens it takes way more money than you managed to win in the previous throws.
It is amazing how fast that PSO will show up when you start playing this big bet scheme. At least it did for me.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI have tried this with $640 across, both in real life and in lots of WinCraps sessions.
How much did you win and lose during those live casino sessions?
I don't think I'd have the guts to risk that much unless I could afford an $8K bankroll.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI have tried this with $640 across, both in real life and in lots of WinCraps sessions. When I do a WinCraps session, I have it play for 500 throws, which is roughly 4 to 6 hours of play.
Bottom line: You can book quite a few wins playing this way, but the PSO is devastating when it happens. And when it happens it takes way more money than you managed to win in the previous throws.
It is amazing how fast that PSO will show up when you start playing this big bet scheme. At least it did for me.
And/if you get down a couple or three times the $640.usd it seems impossible to catch back up.
Quote: NokTangAnd/if you get down a couple or three times the $640.usd it seems impossible to catch back up.
During my simulation, my bankroll low was -$1070 after 3 consecutive PSOs, but I was able to build up my bankroll to +$355 after 9 consecutive wins before another PSO. After that, I got another 11 wins before the next PSO. Believe it or not, my longest win streak without a PSO was 33.
Quote: drjohnnyDuring my simulation, my bankroll low was -$1070 after 3 consecutive PSOs, but I was able to build up my bankroll to +$355 after 9 consecutive wins before another PSO. After that, I got another 11 wins before the next PSO. Believe it or not, my longest win streak without a PSO was 33.
I can believe it. However, the mental ability to actually take the bets down after one winner is something reserved to a "breed apart". Most guys will cave and think they can survive leaving the money out there. It's a difficult thing to do taking your wagers down especially after you watch a long roll before/after doing same. It takes more of a man than I am unfortunately.
If I manage to break $100K in profit, I'll bring $800 to the casino and play with a $64 spread.
Quote: drjohnnyMy simulated profit is up to $20K now using random.org.
But there's something more accurate than a simulated profit. It's called "math".
Quote: Beethoven9thBut there's something more accurate than a simulated profit. It's called "math".
If my math is correct, the house edge per roll of this system ain't too bad...
(240/650) x 0.46% + (200/650) x 1.11% + (210/650) x 1.19% = 0.896%
I like playing the all the place numbers, usually at $5 tables , so $32 across.
The first time I played craps I did real well making around $2K (brought $300 to the table).
That got me hooked.
In July I tried $160 across for one roll right after the point was established, for the first time.
Only 3 of us at the table, and yes ... three in a row - PSO !
DOWN $480 in 6 rolls !
I stopped trying it, and not another PSO on the next 4 come out rolls, I left frustrated at that point not wanting to be tempted.
Later that day I did fairly well by just going with a "gut luck feeling" and would place $160 across for one roll at a random time in the game.
After one non-seven roll and taking it down I had at least $35 to play my normal $32 across with casino money.
I didn't make my $480 back, but hit it enough to get about 1/2 back ...
But I had fun, and enjoyed that "risk adrenaline" for that one roll. I think that is why I like craps.
Quote: drjohnny
If I manage to win over $50K through more simulations, I'll probably try this system in the casino (risking $64 per roll instead of $650).
I have a more simple system for you. No need to even mess with points. You start by placing one unit in the field. If it wins you pull the winnings back. If it loses you double to two units. If that wins you pull it back to one unit, but if it loses you double to 4. And so on until it wins. Remember, there are sixteen ways to win in the field and two of them pay double!
Surviving the one win, and then standing there waiting for a new shooter to try again is something very few could be capable of doing.Quote: NokTang...The mental ability to actually take the bets down after one winner is something reserved to a "breed apart". Most guys will cave and think they can survive leaving the money out there. It's a difficult thing to do taking your wagers down especially after you watch a long roll before/after doing same. It takes more of a man than I am unfortunately.
I have a different plan. Bet big, then when the shooter hits, take it down to the minimum. Then start pressing. This gives you the advantage of playing, and still winning, even on a cold table. As long as there's no PSO, you'll do fine.
Discussed here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/
Quote: drjohnnyIf my math is correct, the house edge per roll of this system ain't too bad...Quote: Beethoven9thBut there's something more accurate than a simulated profit. It's called "math".
You missed my point. Even if the House Edge is low, it's still an edge (meaning you will still lose in the long run).
just for the heck of it, I tried your system for a few minutes on the Wiz's simulator (found at the bottom of the WoO Craps page) and thought I'd report back. It allows you to make a come-out roll without a bet to set the point before place/buy bets, as you suggest - some don't. NOT representative of long term results, but it went 7 wins, 2 PSO's, 3 wins, 1 PSO, 3 wins, 1PSO. OUch.
Quote: drjohnnyI know the odds of sevening out immediately after the point is 1/6 according to the math, but it seems much less than that in real life.
Maybe my perception is skewed, but after witnessing hundreds of shooters roll at the tables, I remember seeing the dreaded "point-seven-out" only a handful of times.
I've been messing around with a new system where I risk $650 immediately after a point is established by buying the 4 & 10 for $100, placing the 5 & 9 for $100, and placing the 6 & 8 for $120. Once one of the numbers gets rolled, I take everything down and wait for a new point.
Using both random.org and real dice for my simulation, I've been able to win over $12K. I'm surprised my bankroll never got lower than -$1070.
If I manage to win over $50K through more simulations, I'll probably try this system in the casino (risking $64 per roll instead of $650).
All systems mathematically fail in the long run.
That having been said, why don't you play the lower edge PL bet and Take Max Odds on the point, and then orchestrate your Place/Buys on the other five numbers such that any of those numbers being hit would cover a loss on the PL+Odds were a loss to occur? You still cover the whole board, and a PSO still clears the felt, but this way you get some Free Odds out there as well as the lower edge PL bet.
I know that you can't take down the PL bet, but you could take down the Odds if you want to effectively go with your, "One hit and down," strategy. Yeah, you can still lose the PL wager, but I think the Free Odds rather than taking that money and bucking the HE of a Place/Buy makes it worth it.
Quote: AZDuffmanI have a more simple system for you. No need to even mess with points. You start by placing one unit in the field. If it wins you pull the winnings back. If it loses you double to two units. If that wins you pull it back to one unit, but if it loses you double to 4. And so on until it wins. Remember, there are sixteen ways to win in the field and two of them pay double!
There's no way I'll try the Marty system of doom after rolling 15 field losers in a row during a practice session several months ago.
Quote: Mission146All systems mathematically fail in the long run.
That having been said, why don't you play the lower edge PL bet and Take Max Odds on the point, and then orchestrate your Place/Buys on the other five numbers such that any of those numbers being hit would cover a loss on the PL+Odds were a loss to occur?
You got me thinking of combining this PSO system with my dynamic 10x odds system. If the table gets extremely cold, hot, or choppy without any PSO's, I'll be golden.
Quote: drjohnnyMaybe my perception is skewed, but after witnessing hundreds of shooters roll at the tables, I remember seeing the dreaded "point-seven-out" only a handful of times.
Quick, based on your perception, is the likelihood of shooter throwing 15 or more times on on his turn MORE OR LESS likely than the dread "point-seven-out"?
Everyone's perception is always "skewed". That's why you do calculations.
Which has a higher percentage of happening? The "point-seven-out" or the shooter rolling more 15 or more times (including the "pay the line" and "craps" on the initial rolls?
Once you've made your point, following it with a seven is 1 out of 6 probability (or 16.67%). The odds of a shooter throwing 15 or more times is 15.26%
So the 15 or more times has a smaller probability - However 14 or more times is 17.7%
I had to make the question a little tricky.
Quote: drjohnnyHow much did you win and lose during those live casino sessions?
I don't think I'd have the guts to risk that much unless I could afford an $8K bankroll.
I tried it when I was up $1K, and it did not go too well. I got away with it some, but mostly my timing sucks, and I get the PSO.
My blog has the details from my Beau Rivage trip where I went on a great roll, and was up over $5k, so I tried $1080 across once, and $1040 across twice. I was leaving the money up for 2 hits, or a max of 4 throws, whichever came first.
The $1080 got paid twice, the $1040 got paid once and then got wiped out, and the last $1040 ran into PSO. So that was an unmitigated disaster for me.
I still like the idea of the big bet, to start, and then regress to playing on the money won. My problem has been playing way too high a level, for the size of my buy-in.
I ran 2 similar systems simultaneously...
1st system: spread $650 on all the box numbers (buy 4 & 10 for $100, place 5 & 9 for $100, and place 6 & 8 for $120)
2nd system: spread $440 on the inner numbers (place 5 & 9 for $100 and place 6 & 8 for $120)
I took down all bets immediately as soon as the shooter hit a box number.
After 1000 shooters, the 1st system yielded a $34,600 profit while the 2nd system yielded a $20,630 profit.
Hopefully I get this lucky when I try this system out in the casino with a $64 spread and don't end up at a table full of PSO shooters!
PSO system results
I've only played craps a number of times since I started this summer, but I can tell you I was in near disbelief when it happened.
The funny thing is I had 50 bucks left over, put it across, and made all my money back plus 20 dollars before the next PSO. Left in a hurry after that.
However, if I was truly dedicated I would have taken the 50 across down after 1-2 hits, and who knows what would have happened after that PSO.
I could fool myself into thinking that this system or any system for that matter is the real deal, but it all comes down to luck/chance no matter which way you look at it. The only value in systems is that they reinforce your willingness to gamble at casinos by giving you confidence, whether its your system or someone elses doesn't really matter.
Quote: friendlydiceI could fool myself into thinking that this system or any system for that matter is the real deal, but it all comes down to luck/chance no matter which way you look at it. The only value in systems is that they reinforce your willingness to gamble at casinos by giving you confidence, whether its your system or someone elses doesn't really matter.
+1
Couldn't agree more, friendlydice.
Quote: RaleighCraps
I still like the idea of the big bet, to start, and then regress to playing on the money won. My problem has been playing way too high a level, for the size of my buy-in.
Not just you, everyone, and that's why the casino's make money. Playing on money won is more fun we can all agree, but it just doesn't always work out that way and we end up trying to win back money lost and go too high etc.. The key which you also allude to is having as many chips as the casino has.
I mean I know we're not there to set a polite good will example to the staff or anything, but I bet they have ways of saying things that make other players think you are slowing the game down, and thus you become the enemy.
Negative energy at the table is always bad.
Quote: cowboyI have to ask of anyone who's tried this in a real casino: Wouldn't you get a lot of "attitude" from the boxman - constantly putting up and taking down your bets? It's not that you just turn them off and on, you have to alter them all after one hit.
I mean I know we're not there to set a polite good will example to the staff or anything, but I bet they have ways of saying things that make other players think you are slowing the game down, and thus you become the enemy.
Negative energy at the table is always bad.
I've seen people do similar things, and the House really didn't have much of a problem with it.
The real pain in the butt is the Center Bets. Wheeling Island Racetrack, Hotel, Casino has a crazy Craps game going on when the table is full because so many of the players love those sucker bets, they just love throwing those Whites all over the place! It's almost like every single roll, then an absolute barrage of calls:
"$4.00, cover all the Hardways."
"Two way Yo!"
"Yeah, two way Yo for me too!"
"C&E, Two ways!"
"$5 Hard Eight, $2 Hard Six, $1 on Hard Four and Hard Ten!"
"Give me a five dollar Any Crap!"
What a mess!
These players haven't read anything up on Craps etiquette, either. People that could put their chips near the Stickman trying to toss them and land them on the desired bet, chips rolling around all over the place from the other tossers, new bets getting made getting all mixed up with chips already on the layout, neatly stacked Whites on the Hard Ways getting knocked down by the tossers.
It's just a mess!
The boxman trying to reiterate everything the players are betting to get that in order, new sucker chips being tossed before winning sucker bets have been all paid off, boxman/stickman completely overwhelmed. Everybody doing everything at once. Small casino, one table open, so they are keen on providing exceptional customer service and extremely hesitant to admonish a player for early betting or chip tossing.
In the meantime, the dealer's just standing in his nice little corner of the table:
"Pressure on the six, take down the Ten and Four."
"Pressure the six, Ten and Four coming down, got it, bud!"
That's really about it for him. The sucker bets pay for that table, perhaps as much as any other you'll ever find. The long hands are what will drain the players, because they'll have made any number of losing sucker bets in the time between the point being established and either made or missed. Guy asking me one time about what it takes to not lose as quickly, I responded, "I don't think you'll ever stop trying those Hardways or that Yo, but if you resolve yourself to not losing more on those bets in a hand than you have on the Pass Line, that might be a good start. Oh yeah, and take the money that you're not putting on the center now, and maybe start getting some money on Odds for a change!"
But, no, I think the dealer's in pretty good shape at that table. Gets 'em paid off, presses what needs pressed, takes down what needs taken down, and he still has thirty seconds to stand and stare while they get those Center Bets sorted out. It's as much fun to watch the Stick and Box try to get things situated as it is to actually be playing the game!
Quote: BozMission, you just described Harrahs Philly (Chester) 100%. I stopped playing there because all of the ame stuff. The house is making so much off these bets they really don't want just Pass or Don't bettors.
That's the nice thing about the Island, like I said, exceptional customer service. They do nothing to discourage us strcit Line+Odds bettors. You should really check it out if you can live with 2x odds.
Quote: Mission146
But, no, I think the dealer's in pretty good shape at that table. Gets 'em paid off, presses what needs pressed, takes down what needs taken down, and he still has thirty seconds to stand and stare while they get those Center Bets sorted out. It's as much fun to watch the Stick and Box try to get things situated as it is to actually be playing the game!
So there's an etiquette to when the boxman should be ready to take your bet is my understanding. He starts at the closest player and works his way to the center. But I just came home after 13 days on the strip and getting absolutely murdered at Craps. The last place I played was Thursday at Casino Royal. I was playing minimum bet, single (correct for the point) odds plus two come bets and it really seemed to me that my action was always last to be handled and often I had to repeat the bet I wanted once or twice. I really got the impression that the etiquette order there was by bet size.
The silly thing was I only went there because it's the only $3 game on the strip and I wanted to try 3 bet pass/come with odds after having zero luck with pass/place68.
Anyway Casino Royal needs more enhancement then a $3 Craps game to make me come back. Low ceilings, oppressively crowded tables (not Craps or other players so much as all table furniture placements); old, old Casino smell; and draft beer - "get the bottled stuff at the bar". You've got to be kidding me.
You got Really Lucky!Quote: drjohnnyFinally completed my simulation of 1000 shooters using dice results from random.org.
I ran 2 similar systems simultaneously...
I took down all bets immediately as soon as the shooter hit a box number.
After 1000 shooters, the 1st system yielded a $34,600 profit while the 2nd system yielded a $20,630 profit.
Hopefully I get this lucky when I try this system out in the casino with a $64 spread and don't end up at a table full of PSO shooters!
PSO system results
4 standard deviations worth of luck.
You may want to repeat this again before live play
as your one sample shows about the BEST it could be
I see you do not count the Horn #s that roll
so the prob of rolling any place # before a 7 right after the point is established =24/30 or 80%.
That means a 20% chance of hitting a 7 before any place bet # hits on the very next roll.
Your data showed only 150 7s rolled instead of the expected 200
The chance of that many 7s or less over 1k shooters
is about 1 in 16,000 (4 standard deviations)
Of course you had back to back PSO a few times and if you had a friend of yours start
at the 970th shooter, looks like 2 times back to back PSO and a total of 5 PSO over a 16 shooter span.
Your friend would think your method is too crazy to continue playing.
As a side note,
just placing the 6 for the next hit after a point
would have won $550 more than every place number
at $650 to pay $758 and it only rolled 8 times more than expected
Have fun
Quote: cowboySo there's an etiquette to when the boxman should be ready to take your bet is my understanding. He starts at the closest player and works his way to the center. But I just came home after 13 days on the strip and getting absolutely murdered at Craps. The last place I played was Thursday at Casino Royal. I was playing minimum bet, single (correct for the point) odds plus two come bets and it really seemed to me that my action was always last to be handled and often I had to repeat the bet I wanted once or twice. I really got the impression that the etiquette order there was by bet size.
Any sort of etiquette would rarely be strictly adhered to, and it makes sense that the big bettors might get some preference over someone playing minimum. If I could organize a Craps Table anyway I wanted, then Center Bets would start on the shooter's left and work around with the shooter being the last to act. Place/Buy/Come/Field on the side the shooter is on would start on the shooter's left and work the same way while the opposite side would start with the player closest to the stickman and work around from there.
Quote:The silly thing was I only went there because it's the only $3 game on the strip and I wanted to try 3 bet pass/come with odds after having zero luck with pass/place68.
Why Place six and eight? Your luck may have still been absent, but it would have at least taken longer for the absence to manifest itself in the form of an empty rack!
Quote:Anyway Casino Royal needs more enhancement then a $3 Craps game to make me come back. Low ceilings, oppressively crowded tables (not Craps or other players so much as all table furniture placements); old, old Casino smell; and draft beer - "get the bottled stuff at the bar". You've got to be kidding me.
Ha! The $3.00 Minimums might be enough for me, what are the Odds?
It was there that I saw the one time anyone was playing the Don't during the entire trip. Far end of the table from me but I think he had a $3 DP bet and I noticed two greens beside it when the Point was a 4 or 10.
Quote: Mission146Any sort of etiquette would rarely be strictly adhered to, and it makes sense that the big bettors might get some preference over someone playing minimum.
Sounds like complete chaos to me. Confusing to both the players and the boxmen. Players come and go, and many change their bets from one shooter to the next.
Why offer a $3 table if you're going to be rude to those playing the minimum?
Clearly a rhetorical question. They want people to bet more - and many were.
Also I'd seen 50 cent chips downtown on a previous trip (at Binions I think) - so they could pay the correct odds on place68, but they don't exist at Casino Royal. When I asked the stickman about it he said: "They don't have those anymore since the Corporates took over and ruined everything from when the Mob ran things."
Quote: 7crapsYou may want to repeat this again before live play
as your one sample shows about the BEST it could be
I've successfully survived 2 more simulations of 1000 shooters each.
I bet $880 on the inside instead of $650 on all the box numbers so I could win $280 per shooter.
I won $22K from the 1st simulation and $29K from the 2nd simulation.
Crazy bankroll swings during the 2nd simulation!
Quote: cowboySounds like complete chaos to me. Confusing to both the players and the boxmen. Players come and go, and many change their bets from one shooter to the next.
Why offer a $3 table if you're going to be rude to those playing the minimum?
Clearly a rhetorical question. They want people to bet more - and many were.
Because neither the house nor the dealers make any money off of low-limit "grinders"; so theyd rather have you out quicker, to make room for a bigger/crazier better.
That's 24/(36*6) = 1/9 or 11.11% of the time.
Nice.Quote: drjohnnyI've successfully survived 2 more simulations of 1000 shooters each.
I bet $880 on the inside instead of $650 on all the box numbers so I could win $280 per shooter.
I won $22K from the 1st simulation and $29K from the 2nd simulation.
Your first post you mentioned this
"Once one of the numbers gets rolled, I take everything down and wait for a new point."
But twice now you said 1000 shooters.
I do not see you making one bet and then waiting for the next shooter.
Too much waiting.
Is there a reason to wait for the next shooter's first point
instead of just betting on the next point?
FYI
Your sessions ares winning because of a large lack of 7s rolled.
Any right way bettor can win and win big when that happens. Easy $$$
The probability of a net loss betting inside over 1k bets is 73.14% by luck (3 out of 4 sessions on average)
The probability of showing a net profit after 1k bets is just 100% - 73.14% (about 1 in 4 sessions on average)
Quote: 7crapsNice.
Your first post you mentioned this
"Once one of the numbers gets rolled, I take everything down and wait for a new point."
But twice now you said 1000 shooters.
I do not see you making one bet and then waiting for the next shooter.
Too much waiting.
Is there a reason to wait for the next shooter's first point
instead of just betting on the next point?
Oops, I meant 1000 points.
Anyway, I decided against trying this system in the casino and went back to betting pass & don't pass with odds.
Unfortunately, I went on tilt my last 3 casino sessions and ended up losing a big chunk of my profit this year.
I may give up on craps and try card counting with a friend...
Quote: drjohnnyI decided against trying this system in the casino and went back to betting pass & don't pass with odds.
!!?
Quote: drjohnny... went back to betting pass & don't pass with odds ... went on tilt my last 3 casino sessions and ended up losing
Thanks for the honesty, you get credit for that. In fact, I don't think you ever intentionally misled us at any time in this thread, which is why I followed it. You seldom followed my advice [but why would you?] You seem to want to take your own counsel exclusively.
Are you the type of person who can write about the irony of your experience? I mean, come on, it's the classic example of a gambler making plans to do one thing and then, in the environment of the casino, a switch gets flipped and you can only do what a human is programmed to do, the things the house counts on. In another thread you were going to be a 10x or 20x odds player exclusively, and were pretty sure doing your dry runs, it was going to be for you. That didn't last. Did you also have another system before this last one? [I forget]. This last one did well in simulation but didnt even get tried! It's fascinating to me.
Quote: odiousgambit!!?
Thanks for the honesty, you get credit for that. In fact, I don't think you ever intentionally misled us at any time in this thread, which is why I followed it. You seldom followed my advice [but why would you?] You seem to want to take your own counsel exclusively.
Are you the type of person who can write about the irony of your experience? I mean, come on, it's the classic example of a gambler making plans to do one thing and then, in the environment of the casino, a switch gets flipped and you can only do what a human is programmed to do, the things the house counts on. In another thread you were going to be a 10x or 20x odds player exclusively, and were pretty sure doing your dry runs, it was going to be for you. That didn't last. Did you also have another system before this last one? [I forget]. This last one did well in simulation but didnt even get tried! It's fascinating to me.
The problem I have found with simulations is, your bankroll is just numbers, and you can go down $1000 or $1500 in bankroll and still continue betting your scheme in the simulation. There is no pain threshold that gets hit. Nothing that makes you alter your betting pattern. And, sometimes fortune turns, and that losing session becomes a very nice winner in the simulation.
However, in a real life session, when I go down $1000, I alter my betting patterns, getting much more conservative, and invariably, the shooter goes on a tear, and I miss out on the chance to get my $1000 back on that roll.
This is why my simulations now contain no more than 400 or so rolls (roughly 4 hours of play). I also run with a bankroll that I am comfortable losing for that session.
Of course, this means my simulation can vary quite a bit from the expected outcome, and it could happen that I just get the perfect roll sequence that makes a terrible betting scheme look to be the holy grail, but then again, that is what every real session could look like.
How's it working out for me in real craps play you ask?
As expected, I am down. I have had a few big wins, had a few more where I was up big and gave much of it back, a few more where I was on the table when a good roll took place but my bankroll was too wounded to win much, and quite a few sessions where nothing went right and I just plain lost.
Almost enough to make card counting look like fun. LOL
A lot depends on your throw style.
For a total random thrower 1/6 or 1/7 would seem about right, But being completely
random you have variations. The average roll is around 6, 59% of the players dont
make a point, only 26% make 1 point, 10% make 2 points and 3.1% make 3 points.
Some times people do real well so that means there are times you do terrible, and a few
7 outs in a row would not seem unusual.
Now with a DI all bets are off... I have felt for some time that if you have practiced a
particular style of throwing for many months or even years, when you are throwing
like that you cant be random...period.. now you may not hit your number, or you may hit
lots of 7/s or many 7 outs in a row, but you cant say wow i am random tonight... your
not, you have influence to give some number you did not expect or want over and over.
If your influence at times gives you more 4 or 10 or 6 & 8 it also will
give you more 7's , thats when you need to make an adjustment in betting or set.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitter... I have felt for some time that if you have practiced a
particular style of throwing for many months or even years, when you are throwing
like that you cant be random...period..
The attempts and places one goes to sell a course in setting dice continue to amaze me. It's odd the casino's remain open, I guess not enough people are buying the seminars etc.. The fact remains throwing dice in any fashion other than I suppose sliding is random, each and every throw is random, independent of the last throw and/or the next one. Find a system that beats the casino with that assumption in mind and you have our attention and of course your life may be in danger.
Quote: NokTangThe fact remains throwing dice in any fashion other than I suppose sliding is random.
Would you be willing to bet that I cannot prove that it is not a fact? If you are sure it is fact, then I will take 10,000 to 1 odds and bet you $1 to your $10,000 that I can prove that it is not a fact as you claims that it is that "throwing dice in any fashion other than I suppose sliding is random."
You would be more of a fool to take this bet than to make such an unsubstantiated claim of something being a fact which is in fact not known by anyone at all to be a fact with any degree of certainty whatsoever.
Said simply, you are wrong that "the fact remains." This is your fantasy.
Quote: AhighWould you be willing to bet that I cannot prove that it is not a fact? If you are sure it is fact, then I will take 10,000 to 1 odds and bet you $1 to your $10,000 that I can prove that it is not a fact as you claims that it is that "throwing dice in any fashion other than I suppose sliding is random."
You would be more of a fool to take this bet than to make such an unsubstantiated claim of something being a fact which is in fact not known by anyone at all to be a fact with any degree of certainty whatsoever.
Said simply, you are wrong that "the fact remains." This is your fantasy.
Why do you need me to lay the odds? Why don't you lay some odds if you are so sure? For that matter, you declined the other members kind even money wager of $10,000.usd. So it's time to put up or quite frankly, "shut up" about all this dice control and influence nonsense. Thanks and good luck on the NFL games.
ps: It was mentioned on here that you use cheap low quality chips on your craps table. Why not buy a decent set of chips? It's a nice touch having a table in your home. I admired the concept until I learned you didn't spend a couple dollars for decent custom chips.
"Those are promo chips by Paulson. AHigh has a set of them on his craps table. They are Medium quality."
Quote: AhighWould you be willing to bet that I cannot prove that it is not a fact?
.
You cannot prove something is not a fact? In other words, you're clueless.
That's what your sentence means.
