odiousgambit
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April 30th, 2013 at 12:54:39 AM permalink
OK, it's not exactly the doey-don't. I have to think about this though, regrettably I have to sign off now.

I'm not convinced you aren't hedging while trying not to hedge. Seriously.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DrEntropy
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April 30th, 2013 at 9:21:25 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


If you MUST bet more than one free odds bet on the felt at once, the better way to do it is to bet the DC if you have a pass line or the come if you have a don't pass.

Then stop after you have two numbers covered. One on the do and one on the don't.



I use this betting style on occasion, see this thread:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/3184-craps-pass-line-dont-come/

As you can see, however, this method has some hedge aspects as well, and I concluded (based on the variance) that pass + DC is more 'hedgy' then Pass + Come. This makes sense: after you establish your two numbers, the 7 is now a wash, losing one and winning the other. It is a fun play style, and I highly recommend it.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
Ahigh
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April 30th, 2013 at 10:19:59 AM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

I use this betting style on occasion, see this thread:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/3184-craps-pass-line-dont-come/

As you can see, however, this method has some hedge aspects as well, and I concluded (based on the variance) that pass + DC is more 'hedgy' then Pass + Come. This makes sense: after you establish your two numbers, the 7 is now a wash, losing one and winning the other. It is a fun play style, and I highly recommend it.



Of course you only get to the point of being hedged after making the second free bet, and if you start with the DC, hopefully you can just get more sevens before you get that far. But I didn't think it through that far. But I think until you make the second free bet, there's no hedge.
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Mikey75
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April 30th, 2013 at 10:31:34 AM permalink
What is the general opinion here on putting down a come bet. Do you always place a come bet after the point has been established or do you just place one or two come bets and hope one of those numbers win? There was a decent roll on the table the other night while I was playing. I had made a pass line bet and placed $10 odds on the pass. Then I started placing a come bet and taking odds on the come bet. I had every number covered with a come bet and pass line bet with odds on all. As soon as I had the last number covered with a come bet and placed odds the shooter sevened out. After seeing all that money lost I couldn't put that much out again lol. I know I'm stingy and a flea! From then on I placed a pass line with odds and made two come bets with odds and then waited for the point or a come bet to hit. If one of the come bets hit then I would place another come bet to keep two active. Anyone know if there is solid mathematical evidence for placing the come bet on every roll?
Ahigh
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April 30th, 2013 at 10:37:34 AM permalink
One variation if you want to keep your edge down and are happy winning less is to pull everything down when you are happy with your profit for that roll.

This is not a popular move, but when you have more money in the rail at the end than the next guy, betting free bets on an average length roll instead of waiting to get paid until a really long roll occurs can be a good idea.

IE: bet the come and max odds every roll until you get a repeater, or two repeaters, or three repeaters, then EVERYTHING DOWN.

When they ask about taking down a bet with no edge, just tell them you're scared. Or make up a story about how you figured out you need that money for a cheeseburger or something. Have a canned answer for why you can't risk it and move on instead of getting a lecture on how to win bigger.

There's nothing wrong with taking down a free bet IMO if you are too scared to leave your money up there, take it down.

Getting to a profit is a goal. Don't forget that!!!
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odiousgambit
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April 30th, 2013 at 11:54:55 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



If you MUST bet more than one free odds bet on the felt at once, the better way to do it is to bet the DC if you have a pass line or the come if you have a don't pass.

Then stop after you have two numbers covered. One on the do and one on the don't.



after messing with this a bit in simulation, it clearly has a large element of hedging, which becomes clear if a 7 is rolled. But see below.

Quote: DrEntropy

I use this betting style on occasion, see this thread:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/3184-craps-pass-line-dont-come/ ... If the point is 6, and then you roll an 8 on the don't come, you win if you roll a 6 and loose if you roll an 8. A 7 is a wash. You route for the point like everyone else, but you don't want to see an 8. If one of those numbers is rolled, you just place another wager to get a new number... with double odds the variance was less for the pass /don't come case (about 20%)



I remember that thread. Exactly what Aaron was talking about, right?

To lower the variance wouldn't generally be what I want to do, even though it smarts to be on the wrong side of it, an unhappy situation which all of us get to experience. However, placing the player in a position where he doesnt root for the 7 makes it interesting. Might try it some time but not with double odds.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
jkluv7
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April 30th, 2013 at 8:28:46 PM permalink
I start out laying the 4 & 10 for $41 each(vig is paid up front), and $5 on the PL. After the comeout I want to Place the 6 & 8. If the point is 5/9 then $2 odds.
Cheer and holler when the 6/8/PL hits with the best of them... Moan an complain when the 7 comes out and you lose your Place bets.
Perhaps after 3 paydays on the Right side bets, call them OFF to lock up your $21 win and ride the roll out for the 7.
Wash, rinse, repeat... You play the best of both sides !!
Jeffrey
AcesAndEights
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April 30th, 2013 at 11:54:00 PM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

What is the general opinion here on putting down a come bet. Do you always place a come bet after the point has been established or do you just place one or two come bets and hope one of those numbers win? There was a decent roll on the table the other night while I was playing. I had made a pass line bet and placed $10 odds on the pass. Then I started placing a come bet and taking odds on the come bet. I had every number covered with a come bet and pass line bet with odds on all. As soon as I had the last number covered with a come bet and placed odds the shooter sevened out. After seeing all that money lost I couldn't put that much out again lol. I know I'm stingy and a flea! From then on I placed a pass line with odds and made two come bets with odds and then waited for the point or a come bet to hit. If one of the come bets hit then I would place another come bet to keep two active. Anyone know if there is solid mathematical evidence for placing the come bet on every roll?


There is no solid mathematical evidence for any strategy at craps winning you money! Every bet has an edge, and the more money you put on the table, the more you will lose in the long term.

To your question, it really depends on your bankroll and how much "action" you want. The continuous come bet strategy is great during a long roll! You're always making money every time any number hits! But when that skinny dugan comes, damn, that's a lot down the drain. So basically you win more when the table's hot, and lose more when it's cold. Don't bother trying to find a hot or a cold table, it's voodoo anyway.

In my experience, most pass+come players like to stick to 1 or 2 come bets to limit their exposure. Remember that every chip you put on the table that isn't odds, has a house advantage. To make your money last, I wouldn't suggest the continuous come...unless you're bringing a BIG bankroll compared to your flat bets.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Ahigh
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May 1st, 2013 at 1:15:37 AM permalink
I was continuous come-betting on a $10 crapless table at the Stratosphere for about 4 hours or so tonight. Not just on my rolls, but on random shooters as well.

I started with $3,200, lost $400 very quickly, and then I went up and down from $2,500 to $3,100 and finally ended at $3,000.

I was only doing single odds so that I could limit my exposure, and it was a good thing because I was more unlucky than lucky.

I also worked everything every roll.

The biggest problem I had was the table had several other players who I decided to bet on as well. One of them had some good rolls. He laid the 12 for $600 and lost that on a very long roll. During his long roll, he made no money and I think I made $300 to $400.

Most of the other shooters cost me $100 to $240.

I had some stinkers too where I lost $100 to $300.

This is my first losing session at crapless. I went down and came back $500 at the Plaza on Crapless and ended with a $25 win. That is my current second worst experience to this one (losing $200).

But if you want a good chance to win, 10x odds is the way to go, and with ten points, you're talking about $1,100 in exposure in the worst case scenario.

$1,000 swings are not abnormal at all on a 10x $10 crapless game.

I'm just testing the waters at single odds and continuous come betting. But the action is fun when you hit some outside numbers.

I did double odds on numbers I felt more confident to hit (like ace-deuce, eights, and tens).

My biggest single pay was ace-deuce and yo with $20 odds and $10 come bet. I also hit an aces but it only had $10 odds, so the pay wasn't any better than the ace-deuce or yo with double odds.

I did go green chip on everything and loaded up about 8 numbers and not a single freaking repeater. I had $25 on the aces and $25 on the 12, and nothing hit at all!!! If I had gotten lucky and not rolled that seven maybe I could have milked those green chips for a while but I didn't get the chance.

That's a damn hard game to beat with 1.2% edge per roll on the pass and come bets. But I enjoy the challenge at single odds, even having been beat, it was fun.
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Mikey75
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May 1st, 2013 at 10:16:34 AM permalink
I'd like to hear from some experienced players about their thoughts for placing the 5,6,8 and taking a field bet. This would cover all the numbers except 7. Of course if the 5,6 or 8 wins the field bet loses. I've played around with this on wizards craps game placing $5 units on each one. If any number hit more than twice I raised my bet by $5. This strategy defiantly lowers the BR swings over placing continual come bets because you are not placing as many chips at a time. However I have my doubts about it because you are losing your odds bet which has no house advantage. Any thoughts?
cestanl
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May 1st, 2013 at 11:48:50 AM permalink
$5 pass line bet, single odds on 5,6,8 or 9..... $3 odds on 4 or 10..... Place the 6 and 8 for $6 each.... If the point happens to be a 6 or 8, I'll do a $5 come bet on the first roll after the comeout.
dicesitter
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May 1st, 2013 at 8:53:47 PM permalink
well playing craps is fairly easy, take some classes, get a good throw, make only the bets
smart craps indicates you have some advantage over, never bet on anyone else the first
five rolls.

If you cant do that, just decide how much you want to lose and how often you want to
low that and play anyway you want.

Craps is a fun game, anyone can have a great roll at anytime. If you dont want to
get a good toss, atleast use the 5 count, it wont help you win, but atleast it cuts
down a great deal on the amount you put in play, and the longer you can hang in
there with a set amount of money, the better your chance of hitting a nice roll.

dicesitter
klimate10
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May 1st, 2013 at 9:55:14 PM permalink
If you absolutely insist in playing the field, at least find a triple double/triple field, then use your strategy.

Playing the field increases variance greatly.

I will not play the field unless it is a triple/triple field, (I know of only one triple/triple field), and even on that field, it was not unusual to consistently lose seven or 8 in a row. I have no idea what it would be like to play a double/triple or double/double field, but I imagine it would be worse.

I am a craps professional, and I play craps for a living, so you might say I'm pretty experienced. I'm not a dice influencer/controller. I just understand math. In a 50/50 proposition, like craps, I bet $100 on pass and double until I win. This is called martingale. People fail at martingale because they don't understand that the odds of losing ten in a row is 1 in 1024. So to make sure that I never lose ten in a row, I will only play 1,000 times a year. Never ever play 1024 times in a year or for sure you will lose ten in a row. I make at least $100,000 a year playing this strategy.

Successful craps players come to the table with pen and paper and track their play, being sure to never play more than 1024 times a year.

Of course, I've yet to be inducted into the craps hall of fame. Big conspiracy against me...ask me some other time.
Ahigh
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May 1st, 2013 at 10:02:49 PM permalink
For those who don't understand klimate10's point, you could lose ten times in a row in ten events pretty easily.

If you do believe in Martingale, go to Caesar's because then at least you don't have to leave the casino as quickly (when you hit the bet limit).

Eventually you will lose. If you have enough money to live off Martingale, you have enough money to not need Martingale.

The best martingale strategy is reverse martingale when you have an edge of your own. Make the casino force you to get paid and just double your bet on a win until you hit the limit. It happens pretty damn quick!

All martingale is in the long run is a way to increase the average size of your bet. Whoever has the edge will win.
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mrclean
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May 2nd, 2013 at 2:18:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Standard craps tables offer two free bets. The first type is commonly referred to as "free odds bet." The other type is referred to as the "free lay odds bets."

The "free" bets collectively refers to both of these bets. To be more detailed, there are 12 free bets on the table as each bet is specific to a number, but I definitely didn't want to be that verbose in explaining each of these 12 bets that have a zero house edge, and are therefore referred to as "free" by many people because of the fact that in theory if you bet them long enough they don't cost you anything at all. So they are "free" and are not part of the "negative" part of what people refer to craps as "negative expectation game."

Sometimes referring to these bets as "free" gets people confused about coupons. I apologize if you were confused by this, and I assumed everyone knew what I was referring to here. But you're not the first person who has been confused by the term when I have used it.



I'm probably wrong about this - but since you must make a pass line wager before you can place odds - and the house has an edge on that pass line wager - then the odds bet isn't really free.
Ahigh
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May 2nd, 2013 at 5:02:20 AM permalink
Quote: mrclean

I'm probably wrong about this - but since you must make a pass line wager before you can place odds - and the house has an edge on that pass line wager - then the odds bet isn't really free.



They are free in the sense that a buy-one-get-one-free buffet coupon is a free buffet.

It's like a lose-one-bet get-a-bet-with-no-edge-as-a-consolation-prize type of thing.

But most people never make the connection, nor do they realize they lose 33.33%, 20%, or 9.09% depending on what box number they roll on the passline.

That's why it's useful to think of the table as "one bet."

If bet $15 on the don't pass, and I roll a four, I just won $5!

Now if I buy the four for $20, there's two ways to look at the resulting $35 on the felt. Most people think they have $35 on the felt and that's it.

The way I would look at it is that if I roll a four, I win $14, and if I don't roll a four I lose $5.

The net effect is that I have a $5 bet on the four that pays $14 for $5.

I prefer to look at everything on the table as a singular bet and try to minimize my exposure (what's the worst thing that can happen here) while still keeping my edges low.

Here's another example of what I might do. If I have a bad toss and I am thinking "oh shit, I'm getting some shitty tosses and I have no idea what is going to happen!" Then I look up and I have 5 points covered with $50 odds on each point on a 10x table with $5. Now I realize I am sweating because I don't want to lose $270 in one roll. So I say "bring everything down for me please." Then I put a green chip in the come.

At this point, instead of having a bet against the seven for $270, now I have a bet against the crap for $25, and anything else besides a four or a ten or an uncovered box number is a push . So I cut my risk by an order of magnitude (1/10th the worst case scenario), and my edge per roll went from 0.00055% to 0.42%.

That is just for that one roll. But let's say the $25 travels to the six now and I had a $5 come bet travelled to the six. Now I lost 9.09% of $25 or $2.27 but I won $5 so that's a net win of $2.72, except now I have $25 locked up on the six. If I still feel scared that I am going to roll a seven, I can lay the six for $24 to $30 ($1 vig up front usually) and put another $25 on the come assuming that I may still get that seven.

You're still betting against the crap ($25 loss if you hit the crap) but you've neutralized most of the loss you might incur on the seven.

If you get confident and your worry passes, then you can put your odds back, and just take less odds on the numbers with $25 come bets on them (not more) and try to pick back in a less stressed state of mind for a familiar roller-coaster ride where you get paid for almost any box number you can roll.

Dealers don't like it when you play this way, and if you roll a seven frequently enough after thinking "oh boy I feel a seven coming on" and then do this and the crew notices your success, they might not like it either.

And NONE of this makes ANY sense at all if you think every roll is 100% random and you always have EXACTLY a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a seven. But if you think you have HIGHER than a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a seven for any reason, the house has the edge on you if that is in fact the case when you lose almost every bet you have when that happens. The math says there is ALWAYS a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a seven. But if you feel otherwise, set your bets up accordingly is my suggestion!

If you do this type of thing on someone else's roll, you can easily piss them off for getting scared of their shot or bringing light to others' minds that "hey I might not win on this roll, uh oh!"

I have mentioned about clearing tables, and anything you do that expresses "Uhm, that seven might be coming" it the type of thing that a superstitious craps player might not want to be around. The whole "superstition" of playing craps amounts to a mentality that the house wants you to have that is something along the lines of "bet more and more and more and don't worry about the possibility of losing ever!!!!"

But as far as clearing the table from a realistic fear of losing the profit you might have already made on this roll if you stop being the type of person that expects to get more lucky than what is realistic, this is that type of thing. So if you do it while others are at the table, the bets are the easy part, but you might as well be betting the don't if you're the only person who won't get hurt by the red.

An extension of this style of betting is to take every free bet you can take looking at how much profit you can preserve on a "per roll" basis by bringing everything down and getting conservative or fearful and consider "how reasonable is it to think I might be so lucky to win EVEN MORE?"

Once you get one, two, three or more repeaters, you can just take all your free odds down and wait and relax. Why wait for the comeout roll to relax? And how relaxed are you when you hit the seven on the roll before the comeout? Some people are just pissed off! In the long run you will lose more money according to the math. But if you have a guaranteed profit at that moment, sometimes it's the moment that matters. Especially if you goal is to get to a specific profit and quit playing instead of the goal of trying to see if it's possible for you to be the luckiest person in the casino on that day, month, year, etc.

But, yeah, on the do side, until you hit a single repeater or you have low enough odds and/or enough natural winners on the line/come, you are a loser no matter how much is on the felt, that is hope, not a win.
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AlanMendelson
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May 2nd, 2013 at 6:14:12 AM permalink
Quote: mrclean

I'm probably wrong about this - but since you must make a pass line wager before you can place odds - and the house has an edge on that pass line wager - then the odds bet isn't really free.



Unfortunately the name "free odds" is equivalent to the concept that there is "no house advantage" on the odds. Simply it's "math speak."

There is nothing "free" about it, as non-math people think of the word "free."

It's "free" in that in the mathematical sense it pays out as "true odds." What the "non math world" thinks of "the odds bets at craps" is that the house is still more likely to win the odds on the right way side. And while the player is more likely to win on the "don't side" the odds pay less to offset that.

You have to "speak" like a mathematician to undersand "math speak." It's all in the "definitions."
Ahigh
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May 2nd, 2013 at 6:37:36 AM permalink
Yeah, the odds bets are free just like kids are free. I mean kids take care of you when you get old, so that is a zero-edge payoff, right? Forget the fact that most kids are losers!! When you average out all the other people's kids that are millionares, it works out.
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Bohemian
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May 2nd, 2013 at 7:04:47 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

...I just understand math. In a 50/50 proposition, like craps, I bet $100 on pass and double until I win. This is called martingale. People fail at martingale because they don't understand that the odds of losing ten in a row is 1 in 1024. So to make sure that I never lose ten in a row, I will only play 1,000 times a year. Never ever play 1024 times in a year or for sure you will lose ten in a row. I make at least $100,000 a year playing this strategy.

Successful craps players come to the table with pen and paper and track their play, being sure to never play more than 1024 times a year.

Of course, I've yet to be inducted into the craps hall of fame. Big conspiracy against me...ask me some other time.



The above quote in bold has got to be the funniest 2 sentences I have ever read on the internet! You klimate10 are a craps professional wannabe because you have no sense of reality. You are on the right board. Too many on this board seem to think that theory and reality are parallel. THEY ARE NOT. I wish you luck on your journey, but your posts indicate you do not have 1,000 bets of $100 experience.

I chart. I can show you charts of 18 DP wins out of 19 decisions at Caesars in Las Vegas. I can show you 11 straight PL losers at Golden Nugget on a Sunday in Laughlin where your good buddy ahigh was playing. ETC, ETC.
Bohemian
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May 2nd, 2013 at 7:09:52 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Unfortunately the name "free odds" is equivalent to the concept that there is "no house advantage" on the odds. Simply it's "math speak."

There is nothing "free" about it, as non-math people think of the word "free."

It's "free" in that in the mathematical sense it pays out as "true odds." What the "non math world" thinks of "the odds bets at craps" is that the house is still more likely to win the odds on the right way side. And while the player is more likely to win on the "don't side" the odds pay less to offset that.

You have to "speak" like a mathematician to undersand "math speak." It's all in the "definitions."



Quote: Ahigh

Yeah, the odds bets are free just like kids are free. I mean kids take care of you when you get old, so that is a zero-edge payoff, right? Forget the fact that most kids are losers!! When you average out all the other people's kids that are millionares, it works out.



BEST Back-to-back quotes I have ever seen on the internet!
SanchoPanza
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May 2nd, 2013 at 8:35:00 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Make only the bets smart craps indicates you have some advantage over.

Which bets would those be?
SanchoPanza
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May 2nd, 2013 at 8:37:07 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

To make sure that I never lose ten in a row, I will only play 1,000 times a year. Never ever play 1024 times in a year or for sure you will lose ten in a row. I make at least $100,000 a year playing this strategy.

So you play almost three times a day every day of the year, just like customary eating. Could you say about how long a typical session lasts?
MathExtremist
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May 2nd, 2013 at 8:53:22 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

I am a craps professional, and I play craps for a living, so you might say I'm pretty experienced. I'm not a dice influencer/controller. I just understand math. In a 50/50 proposition, like craps, I bet $100 on pass and double until I win. This is called martingale. People fail at martingale because they don't understand that the odds of losing ten in a row is 1 in 1024. So to make sure that I never lose ten in a row, I will only play 1,000 times a year. Never ever play 1024 times in a year or for sure you will lose ten in a row. I make at least $100,000 a year playing this strategy.


Except craps isn't a 50/50 proposition. The passline wins 49.29% of the time and loses 50.71%, and as a result the chance of losing a 10-step martingale is only 1 in 890, not 1 in 1024. And over the course of 1000 sessions, you have over a 2/3 chance of seeing at least one sequence of 10 losses. Too rich for my blood.

And where did you find a dice table that will book both $100 and $100000 bets? The top bet in your $100 10-step martingale is $102,400, and in my experience, only ultra high limit tables ($500 minimum or more) allow six figure wagering.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ahigh
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May 2nd, 2013 at 8:57:51 AM permalink
You guys, I'm pretty sure he's being sarcastic here. But who knows?
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odiousgambit
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May 2nd, 2013 at 8:58:29 AM permalink
Perhaps it needs to be said asap that Klimate10 is 'tongue in cheek' at least 889 times out of 890 ... in order to catch him not making a joke you have to wait 890 posts - if not 1024 !
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
petroglyph
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May 2nd, 2013 at 9:37:13 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Yeah, the odds bets are free just like kids are free. I mean kids take care of you when you get old, so that is a zero-edge payoff, right? Forget the fact that most kids are losers!! When you average out all the other people's kids that are millionares, it works out.




Ahigh, those were some of excellant posts!
I like the part about kids'
The free odds are also analogous to if your married, sex is free.
odiousgambit
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May 2nd, 2013 at 12:08:34 PM permalink
Yesterday, I indulged my once-in-a-while 10x play. I like to do this darkside with few players at the table for one session.

I decided some time ago that it can be a more sensible session. Instead of 90 rightside $10 line bets or so, including Come, for a session at 3x4x5x full odds, change to 20 bets, none on Come, at 10x full odds darkside, counting only those bets that resolve a point though. The total amount of money risked is less, and at less HE. As long as it is true that a player has the discipline to limit the session, then what seems a bit insane becomes actually more sane and quite exciting [I sure sweat the big bets of $210]

Yesterday, instead of counting the line bets, I decided to play until certain events kick in. Normally playing this way I will call it quits if I lose 4 odds bets in a row darkside [at 10x], but quits at 3 in a row if laying $200 [the latter almost never happens]. This time I decided at the point where roughly '20 when with odds' has played out I would increase the 'quit' level to any 3 in a row. If luck prevails so that I want to keep playing after a period with that rule [edit], increase it again to 2 in a row.

So I was playing it out and doing OK with winning, but just OK. Quit level hasn't kicked in at about 20 big bets and I can see I've grown a few black chips. I'm having a good time. Going over to the 3-in-a-row for quits, it happens [the quit level] after staying up about the same for a while. Of course it means to quit then I have given it back a bit. A winner or a loser? I color up and am at dead even plus $7 !!

[dealers were on the line for $1 a few times]. It was plenty exciting. BTW one time the line bet pushed for rolling a 12, so even though at the time it seemed like a big nothing...
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SanchoPanza
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May 2nd, 2013 at 12:11:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You guys, I'm pretty sure he's being sarcastic here. But who knows?

On the Casino Royale thread, he said he is ordered to give his Social Security number every time he plays. Here he says he plays 1,000 sessions a year. That would seem to mean that he files 1,000 W-2G's every April 15. If that's not the case, what is the case?
odiousgambit
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May 2nd, 2013 at 12:13:21 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

On the Casino Royale thread, he said he is ordered to give his Social Security number every time he plays. Here he says he plays 1,000 sessions a year. That would seem to mean that he files 1,000 W-2G's every April 15. If that's not the case, what is the case?



That 1000 sessions thing was to make a joke.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
bushman
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May 2nd, 2013 at 12:27:53 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

That 1000 sessions thing was to make a joke.



It wasn't lost on me.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
SanchoPanza
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May 2nd, 2013 at 2:35:00 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

That 1000 sessions thing was to make a joke.

OK, if that was a joke what is the real number, even approximately, to produce his claimed result. If that's not another joke.
bushman
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May 2nd, 2013 at 2:47:38 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

OK, if that was a joke what is the real number, even approximately, to produce his claimed result. If that's not another joke.



From a thread started earlier by klimate10: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/other-casinos/8205-santa-ana-star-trip-report/

He also said he blew his bankroll in Las Vegas at the Riviera, using their 1000x odds promotion.

Perhaps he will weigh in.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
mrclean
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May 3rd, 2013 at 3:58:41 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Unfortunately the name "free odds" is equivalent to the concept that there is "no house advantage" on the odds. Simply it's "math speak."

There is nothing "free" about it, as non-math people think of the word "free."

It's "free" in that in the mathematical sense it pays out as "true odds." What the "non math world" thinks of "the odds bets at craps" is that the house is still more likely to win the odds on the right way side. And while the player is more likely to win on the "don't side" the odds pay less to offset that.

You have to "speak" like a mathematician to undersand "math speak." It's all in the "definitions."



Thanks. I understand true odds and how they work. But that doesn't take away from the fact that you can't simply make an odds wager. You must make the pass line wager. An odds bet is not a stand alone bet. It is for lack of a better phrase an add-on bet to the pass line wager.

The effect being that you can reduce the house's edge on the pass line wager by adding odds. I think the house's edge for a pass line wager is around 1.4%. If you add 10x odds that gets reduced to around .18%.
SanchoPanza
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May 3rd, 2013 at 5:45:00 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

That 1000 sessions thing was to make a joke.

Quote: SanchoPanza

OK, if that was a joke what is the real number, even approximately, to produce his claimed result. If that's not another joke.

It is certainly most disappointing that it appears we will not be given the information on how $100,000 a year has been earned at craps tables. But then again, one has to concede that the silence is no great surprise.
jkluv7
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May 3rd, 2013 at 7:15:48 PM permalink
Quote: mrclean

... But that doesn't take away from the fact that you can't simply make an odds wager. You must make the pass line wager. An odds bet is not a stand alone bet. It is for lack of a better phrase an add-on bet to the pass line wager.



Actually, you CAN make just an odds wager. Is it normally done? No... but can be done, and I take advantage of it whenever I can.

I'm a Don't bettor, laying the 4 & 10 all the time. To wit, my neighbor is betting the PL and a 6 or 8 rolls... He puts up only 1 unit for odds. I then ask him/her nicely if I can buy $10 in odds with his bet... 99/100 always say 'yes'.. Most are unaware of the 7-hump they have to get over to make that odds bet. I just choose not to take that risk while betting the don'ts...

Jeffrey
Bohemian
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May 4th, 2013 at 4:13:56 AM permalink
Quote: jkluv7

Actually, you CAN make just an odds wager. Is it normally done? No... but can be done, and I take advantage of it whenever I can.

I'm a Don't bettor, laying the 4 & 10 all the time. To wit, my neighbor is betting the PL and a 6 or 8 rolls... He puts up only 1 unit for odds. I then ask him/her nicely if I can buy $10 in odds with his bet... 99/100 always say 'yes'.. Most are unaware of the 7-hump they have to get over to make that odds bet. I just choose not to take that risk while betting the don'ts...

Jeffrey



Although this can be done, it is probably technically illegal in the United States (but quite the norm in Macau), and you can be called on it especially if you have a dealer/box that hasn't been laid recently. People have been arrested/banned/escorted out for less in a casino.

Quote: Ahigh

... Anyway, I've learned a lot looking at how turning off your odds bets on the comeout makes it harder to overcome the house edge. This simple fact makes it a huge advantage to only bet a single number as you never have opportunity for odds on the comeout if you never bet the come. So that's a simple approach too if you can handle the boredom.

... But there is a bottom line and that is that if you don't work odds on the comeout, be careful betting 3 or 4 numbers at once as it's easier to lose since you're not having a proper chance to get lucky winning odds on the comeout roll. Much easier to bet one number, and two you can still be alright, but 3, 4, or more come bets and not working the odds on the comeout and/or with not enough odds can be deadly!



There are over a 1000 ways to win at a Craps table, but in my opinion, this is another reason the Come Bet has to be one of the most stupid bets allowed. To begin with, you have to hit the number 2x before you get paid. And in reality, most Come Bets travel with only single or double odds. This is still a dumb bet compared to placing the number. Sure Come Bets occasionally win and win big, but so will Yo bettors.
Ahigh
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May 4th, 2013 at 9:13:33 AM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

There are over a 1000 ways to win at a Craps table, but in my opinion, this is another reason the Come Bet has to be one of the most stupid bets allowed. To begin with, you have to hit the number 2x before you get paid. And in reality, most Come Bets travel with only single or double odds. This is still a dumb bet compared to placing the number. Sure Come Bets occasionally win and win big, but so will Yo bettors.



The fact that such a high percentage of rolls are the comeout roll really works against the guy who makes come bets without working the odds on the comeout.

Functionally the come bet is the same as the pass line except the "off for the comeout" rule that everybody just assumes is a great superstition to follow on the house's recommendation.

So the bet can and should be the same.

And of course, you win the come bet in one roll exactly half as often as you win the field bet in one roll. IE: 8 in 36 compared to 16 in 36. Almost one in four times you WIN the come bet in a single roll.

Where you get in trouble is giving up volatility by betting against yourself with one or more come bets in addition to the passline PLUS neutralizing half your free bets on 29% of the rolls. The edge still is pretty low at 0.42%, but it's damn hard to win betting the pass line, and a couple of come bets for the same amount if you're not betting anything else! The odds bets are your only real hope to win. Even just changing your bet amount on the come gives you a better chance to win in some cases than letting your odds bets get turned off so much!
aahigh.com
MrV
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May 4th, 2013 at 11:43:50 AM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

Although this can be done, it is probably technically illegal in the United States (but quite the norm in Macau), and you can be called on it especially if you have a dealer/box that hasn't been laid recently. People have been arrested/banned/escorted out for less in a casino.



I recall reading about this in a book about craps; the author called it "the Oddsman's bet," and mentioned it with approval.
"What, me worry?"
FrankScoblete
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May 4th, 2013 at 1:59:04 PM permalink
My favorite author wrote that. It's legal everywhere I've ever played.
jkluv7
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May 4th, 2013 at 8:15:59 PM permalink
I bet other's odds all the time in AC. We call it the odds-vulture. You just have to make sure the other person understands it, and I usually have the dealer quote what the payment will be to me based on my odds bet.
Jeffrey
Mission146
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May 5th, 2013 at 7:52:40 AM permalink
Quote: jkluv7

I bet other's odds all the time in AC. We call it the odds-vulture. You just have to make sure the other person understands it, and I usually have the dealer quote what the payment will be to me based on my odds bet.
Jeffrey



Yeah, I did that once. There was a kid with whom I was playing one time who absolutely refused to make the Odds Bet, despite my protestations, because he knew just enough math to know he'd probably lose at that point. There were two other people at the table in addition to the two of us. I didn't make any bet except for his Odds Bet when I wasn't shooting, and then a PL+Odds as well as his odds when I was shooting.

I know that I should have just hung out all day and made his Odds Bets with a long-term expectation of 0.00, but shooting has enough utility to me that I didn't mind eating the HE 1/4 rounds. Besides, it actually ended up being a really great session after the kid and a guy I called (in my head) Mr. Fat Cigar each went on some pretty decent rolls, four points each.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SanchoPanza
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May 7th, 2013 at 6:26:13 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Make only the bets smart craps indicates you have some advantage over.

Yet more information that us peons will never be let in on.
dwm
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May 8th, 2013 at 10:36:34 AM permalink
Have been playing this betting scheme the latest few weeks with positive results thusfar: Pass-odds and place the 6 and 8 to start the new shooter. If the point is 6 or 8, then add the 5 or 9 to get to three bets to start. Then place bet the next uncovered box number rolled to get to 4 total bets. Stop at 4 bets, 3 place bets and pass-odds. Collect 3 hits, then press-take, press- take for two presses per number.

I am playing with $15 bets, $1100 day bankroll. Presses take the bets to $30 on the first press, then $60 on the final press. Then same bet for remainder of hand. The max of four total bets, and two presses per number after collecting 3 hits seem to help my results.
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