2013 BREAK 154!!!!!

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March 15th, 2015 at 11:15:26 AM permalink

Quote: pacomartin
I was thinking about this problem the other day.

i was thinking about eating pizza the other day but am so glad i did not
tea and crackers and chicken noodle soup did the mend, thank you

Quote: pacomartin
The Time Magazine calculation was (36/30)^154 = 1.56 trillion which is the correct calculation for not rolling a 7 one time before reaching 154 tries. Presumably whoever did that calculation did not know how to play craps, or didn't know how to do a Markov analysis.

many say it is extremely a difficult problem to solve
but i (Sally) says this problem can easily be done with adding and multiply in a spreadsheet
i have shown this B4 too (2 or two)
maybe i links to it
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/19743-what-roll-is-a-craps-shooter-most-likely-to-7-out-on/

Quote: pacomartin
The correct way to do this calculation <snip>

you really mean

A
correct way

as there are more than one methods that produce correct answers
i personally have shown 2 ways in me past posts

SN Ethier went and found, using eigenvalues and eigenvectors, a closed form formula even
that is super super SUPER accurate from 2 to 200 rolls

we may not need any more
but to get close, glad you came up with it
fun

the record should be broken in March 2029
i have more work to do on that unless as Alan M says, Ahigh does it first!
Sally

added B4 lunch
for 80 rolls i get close with
=(36/30)^(0.7881645*80)
the average increase per roll going higher = 0.159455591

now lunch and ice cream

you may remember this thread
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=34550879&postcount=27

i mean, the one right above yours
looks to be another start

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pacomartin

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March 15th, 2015 at 12:59:55 PM permalink

Quote: mustangsally
i was thinking about eating pizza the other day but am so glad i did not
tea and crackers and chicken noodle soup did the mend, thank you
many say it is extremely a difficult problem to solve

1 in 27,182,178 is the odds of getting to 117 rolls of a dice (set in Las Vegas Stanley Fujitake of Honolulu previous world record)
1 in 5,590,264,072 is the odds of getting to 154 rolls of a dice (set in Atlantic City by Patricia De Mauru current world record)

Even though I have explained to people that you are so far out on the tail of the probability curve that it is not surprising that you would break a record of 117 by jumping up to 154 (without any recorded instances in between 117 and 154), most people feel that it is counter intuitive.

mustangsally

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March 15th, 2015 at 3:06:17 PM permalink

Quote: pacomartin
Even though I have explained to people that you are so far out on the tail of the probability curve that it is not surprising that you would break a record of 117 by jumping up to 154 (without any recorded instances in between 117 and 154), most people feel that it is counter intuitive.

yes, and those numbers are for just one shooter

think of how many hands there are over a years time
at all craps tables in the world
the chance that at least one hand goes past 117 seems more reasonable, i would think

Sally

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dicesitter

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March 15th, 2015 at 3:12:53 PM permalink

some one may break the 154 but it wont be any time soon, and I don't think it will be anyone
in the AP or DI community, it will have to be some one completely random.

Now I know folks who have had 50's 60's 70's 80 and 90's, but those are damn hard to come by, and they
are light years away from 154.

But I hope it is beaten.. that would be great

dicesetter

mustangsally

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March 15th, 2015 at 3:26:22 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
some one may break the 154 but it wont be any time soon,

why not soon?
it took 20 years to smash the record
should come quicker this time around, more craps tables in the world
more hands per day

maybe the poor quality of the dice the casinos now use?

Quote: dicesitter
and I don't think it will be anyone in the AP or DI community, it will have to be some one completely random.

the 154 roller was random
would love to see a few rolls from the video, if there really is a video

The one at the California Casino (The Cal), he was a pro
there are still people downtown Vegas, some the old timers, that remember Stanley
that IS so cool

Quote: dicesitter
Now I know folks who have had 50's 60's 70's 80 and 90's, but those are damn hard to come by, and they
are light years away from 154.

But I hope it is beaten.. that would be great
dicesetter

maybe just getting to 50 is all shooters of today want

maybe it be 50 years until another gets past Stanley

that is such a cool name too!

Sally

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GWAE

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March 15th, 2015 at 4:54:21 PM permalink

I wonder how much money the right side bettors made? I can imagine playing continuous come bets and getting crushed on a 4 hour roll. That would be so sad.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

dicesitter

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March 16th, 2015 at 7:35:14 AM permalink

ON the 154 roll, the table lost $280,000.... just think of that, there was no one at the table
that happened to be a big better...

Now I cant say for sure this is correct, but I was told from a person that should know that
the casino actually came out ahead that day, all the winners put it back on the table
looking for the next 154 roll.

Sally indicated it could be beat again soon and she is right, but then again it may never be beaten

The tables are harder to beat, the dice vary more than they used to so I have a hard time seeing a
dice controller beating that. For a dice controller, on every roll you are closer to a 7 than is a random
player.... we all dream of a roll like that, but when you get to 50,51,52,53,54,55,56 you begin to understand
what your trying to do.

In the world of baseball this would be like hitting 130 home runs in a year...possible, maybe, likely....not so much

dicesetter

ThatDonGuy

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March 16th, 2015 at 9:56:57 AM permalink

Quote: mustangsally

SN Ethier went and found, using eigenvalues and eigenvectors, a closed form formula even that is super super SUPER accurate from 2 to 200 rolls

That's how I tried to solve it as well, but in order to get the eigenvalues, you have to solve an order-5 polynomial, and I don't know of an "exact" way of doing it. It has been proven that there's no "universal formula" like there are for quadratics, cubics, and quartics; probably the easiest way is to stumble across a root, and then solve the quartic that results when you divide the original polynomial by (x minus the root).

For those of you playing at home, I get this:

[S(N,C)]   [1/3     1/12    1/9     5/36    0]   [1]
[S(N,4)]   [1/6     3/4     0       0       0]   [0]
[S(N,5)] = [2/9     0       13/18   0       0]^N [0]
[S(N,6)]   [5/18    0       0       25/36   0]   [0]
[S(N,E)]   [0       1/6     1/6     1/6     1]   [0]

where the vector on the left is the probability of being in each of the five possible states (Comeout, Point 4, Point 5, Point 6, End (i.e. seven out)) after N rolls (or N or fewer rolls for the end state), and the probability of "surviving" N consecutive rolls is 1 - S(N,E).

However, the first step is to find the five eigenvalues for the 5x5 matrix, which are the values of X for which, if you subtract X from the five elements in the main diagonal, the determinant of the resulting matrix is zero.

Sabretom2

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March 16th, 2015 at 11:09:48 AM permalink

Common factor; both times, it happened in May.

ill be waiting for the math.

mustangsally

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March 16th, 2015 at 12:04:28 PM permalink

Quote: ThatDonGuy
the first step is to find the five eigenvalues for the 5x5 matrix, which are the values of X for which, if you subtract X from the five elements in the main diagonal, the determinant of the resulting matrix is zero.

i think in his paper (he did this with another)
he used a 5x5 matrix

have you read that paper?
EthierHoppe_WorldRecordCraps.pdf

"Is there a closed-form expression, simple enough to
be used by a journalist the next time the record is
broken?"

he also has this that i never really looked at

But we would like something still simpler, usable
on a handheld calculator. We use the approximation
¯t(n) := ¯c1(¯e1)n^−1, (9)
where
¯c1 := 1.211844813 and ¯e1 := 0.862473752,
which are the nine-decimal-place upper bounds.
Then ... should suffice

gosh

a table from 2 to 200 rolls is so easy to make
once made, it will last forever (made of gold)
and one can just look at it
at anytime

Sally

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ThatDonGuy

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March 16th, 2015 at 1:43:12 PM permalink

Some quick analysis shows that the probability of eventually sevening out before N rolls is 1 - A x B^N, where A and B are constants.

Doing some "plug in some numbers and see what you get" analysis with Excel, I get an approximate value of the probability of N consecutive rolls without sevening out = 1.211844707 x 0.862473752^N.

However, for N = 154 rolls, this = 1 in 6,481,663,063 instead of the 1 in 5,590,264,072 that pacomartin got.

Even if I use the 1.211844813 that Hoppe used, I get 1 in 6,481,662,449.

mustangsally

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March 16th, 2015 at 1:58:07 PM permalink

Quote: ThatDonGuy
However, for N = 154 rolls, this = 1 in 6,481,663,063 instead of the 1 in 5,590,264,072 that pacomartin got.

Even if I use the 1.211844813 that Hoppe used, I get 1 in 6,481,662,449.

6,481,679,532.80 is getting past 154 rolls (making roll 155)
the record was to get past 153
5,590,264,220

5,590,277,389.56 = the 1 in chance of making the 154th roll

and NOT the chance to 7 out on the 154th roll
that = 1 in 40,648,588,884.24

so looks to be close enough for an approximation
you have to say yes
Sally

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dicesitter

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March 17th, 2015 at 12:28:24 PM permalink

Sally

I would make a wager with you that 154 roll is not broken in the next 20 years.

what do you think

dicesetter

mustangsally

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March 17th, 2015 at 12:52:17 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
I would make a wager with you that 154 roll is not broken in the next 20 years.

you mean in a real casino and not at my house?
I would win that bet

because I would pull a Frank Scoblete

and claim to the world that the record was broken
with not even an ounce of any proof required from the casino where it happened
remember
148 rolls, July 2005, Atlantic City

funny about that, I have been in AC a few times and asked around
no dealers or boxmen ever heard of that event
in this day and age
haha

Frank Scoblete
"As a writer, a teacher and a speaker, as a former actor, I crave the public performance. I want a readership, an audience. I like the spotlight on me."

gag me please!

oh, i will still bet you
because it will happen
just as Grandma Pat did it
Sally

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dicesitter

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March 18th, 2015 at 7:52:06 AM permalink

Sally

I am 66 so I will bet you 154 will not be beaten in 20 years, hopefully I live long
enough to collect.

As far as what Frank said or did not say, I don't really care about that stuff. I have seen Frank
and Dom and most of the others shoot and all of them can influence the dice to one extent
or another, the one thing I have never seen any one do is control when the 7 comes up.

We all have had some interesting things in practice, I have had several rolls over 50 without a single
7....but the casino is a different animal..

Anyway I am willing to make a friendly wager.........

I don't think Pat has it in her to do it again

dicesetter

mustangsally

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March 18th, 2015 at 9:19:13 AM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
As far as what Frank said or did not say, I don't really care about that stuff.

well, we have a bet then

how much?

FrankS claimed that Stanley's 118 roll record was smashed by a person playing at the same table he was at
not one ounce of proof exists (or 1/100 of an ounce)
proof exists of Stanley's and Pat's record

you want any proof you lost the bet?

I can also use a set of dice at my house that never throws a 7 and the record will be broken very quickly

you will lose your bet

one last chance to say no bet

Quote: dicesitter
I don't think Pat has it in her to do it again
dicesetter

i meant someone like her will do it
not me, I think her name is Mary

Sally

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NokTang

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March 18th, 2015 at 7:48:28 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
the dice vary more than they used to......

For a dice controller, on every roll you are closer to a 7 than is a random
player....

What do you mean by these statements? Thank you.

dicesitter

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March 19th, 2015 at 9:47:06 AM permalink

noktang

1... dice...... the dice are not as consistent as they used to..... now I understand some casinos
will test them in their rotation and even measure them.. but that means nothing.... they don't test
the final resting place of the die, and without that you have no idea if they are balanced. In
addition many dice are water cooled which means that different parts of the dice cool before others.

Now in terms of dice control and the 7. most dice controllers used the hard way set, which is same numbers
on top such as 33. when you use the hard way and your dice have an on access finish, you can get 4/3/3/4, 5/2/2/5
since a hard 6 would be a perfect finish, every time your a tad off you will get a 3/4 4/3 if you are two faces off perfect
you get a 2/5 5/2..... a random roller is never any closer to a 7 no matter how he or she throws the dice.

If you are using a hard way set, and your on a 14 foot table, you throw the dice 8-9 feet and one die rotates only 1
face forward and the other back ..boom its a 7... two faces and 7..... for a random guy, the finish has no correlation
to the start. That's why I say a dice controller will never beat the record.

dicesetter

dicesitter

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March 19th, 2015 at 9:51:39 AM permalink

Sally

First I am not Frank and your not Pat....

I make my money betting on myself, you make yours betting some one will not do well, certainly
these are different approaches to craps, and they both have their place.

Since I am very old and very poor I will go to the bank and borrow a $100 bill. This will
be our bet. I guess we will both have to agree on the validity of a breaking roll, I trust
myself to be honest and reasonable and therefore I will trust you.

dicesetter

mustangsally

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March 19th, 2015 at 10:30:27 AM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
you make yours betting some one will not do well,

not at all true

i bet that a shooter will not hit their point

every point to win is an underdog
so i go with what is to be expected (or just the averages)

i also feel by targeting certain male shooters my winning percentages are higher than the common dice percentages
just what it is, i feel lucky

Quote: dicesitter
Since I am very old and very poor I will go to the bank and borrow a $100 bill. This will
be our bet. I guess we will both have to agree on the validity of a breaking roll, I trust
myself to be honest and reasonable and therefore I will trust you.

dicesetter

"very old and very poor" sounds like a winning combination to me
fyi, only borrow money if your interest rate = 0.0%
Sally

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dicesitter

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March 19th, 2015 at 12:42:17 PM permalink

Sally

To me not making a point is not doing well... but that is a different story, I don't have any
problem with your play... if it works do it.....

Now while the $100 is a terrible burden on my standard of living, it is non the less
a reasonable amount as judged against the gravity of the event. It is my opinion the
efforts to break the 154 will take a very long caesura, leaving in its wake only the
payment options available to you.

dicesetter

NokTang

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March 19th, 2015 at 8:09:28 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter

In addition many dice are water cooled which means that different parts of the dice cool before others.

That's true of fish as well. But a fish rots from the head down. How do you explain that?

NokTang

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March 19th, 2015 at 8:16:15 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter

If you are using a hard way set, and your on a 14 foot table, you throw the dice 8-9 feet and one die rotates only 1
face forward and the other back ..boom its a 7... two faces and 7..... for a random guy, the finish has no correlation
to the start. That's why I say a dice controller will never beat the record.

dicesetter

So the conclusion from the above is the "dice controller" is betting the don't pass? The come out roll, no control used. But after a point established, he/she can influence said die to come up on seven, thus the advantage he/she paid so dearly to be taught said technique ? Brilliant. The correlation gives him/her the advantage others don't have and haven't paid for.

petroglyph

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March 19th, 2015 at 8:29:54 PM permalink

Quote: NokTang
That's true of fish as well. But a fish rots from the head down. How do you explain that?

I disagree with the premise. A fish rots from the gills.

dicesitter

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March 20th, 2015 at 12:40:16 PM permalink

Quote: NokTang
So the conclusion from the above is the "dice controller" is betting the don't pass? The come out roll, no control used. But after a point established, he/she can influence said die to come up on seven, thus the advantage he/she paid so dearly to be taught said technique ? Brilliant. The correlation gives him/her the advantage others don't have and haven't paid for.

Look you have no idea what I am talking about so lets just leave it there. You don't understand
the basics of dice sets and their relationship to the landing out comes.

As long as you think dice control has no influence over dice landings you can sleep well.

dicesetter

NokTang

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March 21st, 2015 at 3:00:33 AM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
Look you have no idea what I am talking about so lets just leave it there. You don't understand
the basics of dice sets and their relationship to the landing out comes.

As long as you think dice control has no influence over dice landings you can sleep well.

dicesetter

We all have a complete idea and understanding what you are talking about. 99.9 percent just don't "buy" in to your theory of control. The basics are it's all a sales effort preying on the naive. All that said, I'll sleep fine thanks.

SOOPOO

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March 21st, 2015 at 5:16:13 AM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
Look you have no idea what I am talking about so lets just leave it there. You don't understand
the basics of dice sets and their relationship to the landing out comes.

dicesetter

There is no relationship to dice sets and the outcomes. I understand that. Quite simple actually.

RonC

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March 21st, 2015 at 5:43:10 AM permalink

deleted

dicesitter

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March 22nd, 2015 at 11:33:42 AM permalink

You may think that, but it is 100% false and I can easily prove that to you ( in private)
but again the question is not that a person can or cant get any influence over the dice....
the question is and should be does it make any difference in winning and losing.

If a person picks up a basketball, does he have any influence over where it goes..... certainly, does that
mean it will go in the basket...certainly not.

dicesetter

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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March 22nd, 2015 at 11:38:07 AM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
You may think that, but it is 100% false and I can easily prove that to you ( in private)

I'll be in Vegas Wednesday through Sunday. PM me if you are really interested. Thanks!

dicesitter

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March 22nd, 2015 at 2:33:46 PM permalink

just got back from a month in vegas but will look at other options

dicesetter

NokTang

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March 22nd, 2015 at 8:24:21 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
You may think that, but it is 100% false and I can easily prove that to you ( in private)
but again the question is not that a person can or cant get any influence over the dice....
the question is and should be does it make any difference in winning and losing.

If a person picks up a basketball, does he have any influence over where it goes..... certainly, does that
mean it will go in the basket...certainly not.

dicesetter

Huckster salesmanship 101.

AxelWolf

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March 22nd, 2015 at 9:08:56 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
You may think that, but it is 100% false and I can easily prove that to you ( in private)
but again the question is not that a person can or cant get any influence over the dice....
the question is and should be does it make any difference in winning and losing.

And the answer in NO.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

dicesitter

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March 23rd, 2015 at 8:28:23 AM permalink

NokTang

Again... there is a vast difference in dice influence and dice control where you can beat the
casino when ever you want.....does not happen

Here is an example of what happens when you change sets which is an axis change...

9,9,6,8,7(3-4)

6,10,9,8,8,7(3-4)

change set

5,7(6-1)10,8,7 (6-1) 4 7 (6-1)
6,9,7 (6-1) 5,5,6

change back to original set

9,2,2,9,7 (3-4) 10
10,12,10,9,10,4

change set

5,6,3,5,8,3
8,7(6-1) 8 6 7(5-2) 5

this is an example of changes and norms for different sets where the dice
start and where the finish is changed by starting set

first set.....11 or 24 numbers over 8
second set 2 of 24 numbers over 8

first set ... all sevens are 3/4 4/3
second set 5 of 6 7/s are 6/1 1/6

It is easy to show influence over the dice with set and axis changes... but as this shows and it would not show
any different for a larger sample.........if you cant control the 7 you cant change the outcome of the game.

dicesetter

NokTang

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March 24th, 2015 at 9:44:45 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter

this is an example of changes and norms for different sets where the dice
start and where the finish is changed by starting set

Thanks for being polite. However, you will only convince the most ignorant on the forum. I "bet" you will gladly play with my money to prove your point? and when "we" win want a share of the winnings?

dicesitter

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March 25th, 2015 at 7:16:00 PM permalink

Noktang

I am always polite, and my purpose in this whole thing is that people like you
and a number of others on here that are not polite are still and I am afraid will
always be confused with influence over control.

The data I presented shows clear influence and it will all day long, but as I said that does
not mean it will make you a winner at the table.

The only question I have is why are you and others afraid of that ?????

Dicesetter

MrV

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March 25th, 2015 at 7:28:19 PM permalink

Your "data" is meaningless and proves nothing.

Nobody influences or controls dem bones: they're engines of randomness.

Were it otherwise, the casinos wouldn't let guys like you set and waft the dice.

I guess we all choose our own delusions.

"What, me worry?"

NokTang

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March 25th, 2015 at 10:24:42 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter

The data I presented shows clear influence and it will all day long, but as I said that does
not mean it will make you a winner at the table.

The only question I have is why are you and others afraid of that ?????

Dicesetter

It doesn't show a "clear influence" of anything. Of course if you can "influence" the outcome you can make money, be a winner.

We aren't afraid of anything related to your claims. We have a sense of caring about other people being taken advantage of which selling of said "influence" techniques certainly is doing i.e. the most gullible among mankind are your victims and we are just protecting them, it's our natural way to care about others.

If I'm dealing a deck of cards, an honest deck, one deck, and four aces have already been dealt....the fact that no more aces can be dealt from that deck proves nothing to anyone with an ounce of sense. Your "argument" is that knowing this proves something called "influence". But it doesn't. It's a straight forward reality. There are only four aces, all have been dealt. The next hand won't have an ace. So what? With dice however, you basically shuffle after each toss. We all know this and so do you.

Some NCAA basketball sweet 16 locks would be more useful at this point.

AxelWolf

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March 25th, 2015 at 11:06:31 PM permalink

Quote: dicesitter
Noktang

I am always polite, and my purpose in this whole thing is that people like you
and a number of others on here that are not polite are still and I am afraid will
always be confused with influence over control.

The data I presented shows clear influence and it will all day long, but as I said that does
not mean it will make you a winner at the table.

The only question I have is why are you and others afraid of that ?????

Dicesetter

No one but complete idiots are confused with DI an DC. It's obvious no one can control the dice. Some die-hards still think they can influence the dice slightly enough to beat the house, unfortunately that's not possible.

There's probably a few LUCKY guys that are ahead after many sessions and they still believe, eventually they lose and quit or you see them scrounging arounnd trying to find the smallest limits possible.

No one can explain why all the "good shooters" are not flocking to Albuquerque.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

NokTang

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Joined: Aug 15, 2011

March 26th, 2015 at 1:32:16 AM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf

No one can explain why all the "good shooters" are not flocking to Albuquerque.

What's in Albuquerque ? Isn't that near Roswell?

dicesitter