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TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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March 31st, 2013 at 9:36:16 PM permalink
Let's keep it simple.. No theatrics... One agenda.... Shatter the 154 roll record.

A simple way disprove all of this is to just shatter a simple little record... Can it be done this year?

I'm not worried about the chi-squared test, pro test, or anything else... Can a dice influencer beat this record, this year?
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 31st, 2013 at 9:43:10 PM permalink
I would be very surprised if Ahigh doesn't break it. :-)
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 31st, 2013 at 9:45:38 PM permalink
It would be cool if it was the guy that wears the mask. And then after he breaks the record he emphatically pulls of the mask and throws it into the gathered crowd revealing his true identity. I want the movie rights!

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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March 31st, 2013 at 9:59:52 PM permalink
In math, the "wait time" for an event to happen
is earlier than later, for each trial of course.

On May 28th, 1989, a Hawaii man walked up to “Craps Three” and set a record.
Stanley Fujitake 118 roll hand
Mr. F was a 20 year regular at the casino.

May 23, 2009
Patricia Demauro
154 rolls in AC
Only her second attempt at shooting

Is there a pattern there??


"It was widely reported in the media that, on 23
May 2009, at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City,
Patricia DeMauro, playing craps for only
the second time, rolled the dice for four hours and 18
minutes, finally sevening out at the 154th roll.
Initial estimates of the probability of this event ranged
from one chance in 3.5 billion [3] to one chance in
1.56 trillion [6]. Consensus was reached within days:
one chance in 5.6 billion [1, 5].

According to various sources, this established a
new world record, previously held by Stanley Fujitake
(118 rolls, May 1989, Las Vegas) and more recently
by a gentleman known only as The Captain (148 rolls,
July 2005, Atlantic City) [4], though the latter event
is not as well documented and was unknown to
Borgata officials.
Presumably, such events have also occurred in situations
where no precise count of the
number of rolls was kept"

A world record at an Atlantic City casino
and the distribution of the length
of the crapshooter’s hand
S. N. Ethier and Fred M. Hoppe
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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April 1st, 2013 at 4:47:10 AM permalink
Until proven, The Captain, if he ever existed, has no record anywhere of doing anything.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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April 1st, 2013 at 7:53:23 AM permalink
Quote:


DeMango
Until proven, The Captain, if he ever existed, has no record anywhere of doing anything.



How true this is, you can’t take a marketing plan and turn it into a record, you need witnesses to any earth breaking record, not the hearsay of someone that is trying to market becoming a DI, so he can sell books and teach schools.

http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/Search.aspx?q=longest+craps+roll

Maybe Frank can find out how to set the record and he can become the first one in the Guinness Book of World Records, I can just see it now FS sets new world record for dice control 14 rolls of the dice its official!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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March 15th, 2015 at 10:56:51 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

"It was widely reported in the media that, on 23 May 2009, at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City, Patricia DeMauro, playing craps for only the second time, rolled the dice for four hours and 18 minutes, finally sevening out at the 154th roll. Initial estimates of the probability of this event ranged from one chance in 3.5 billion [3] to one chance in 1.56 trillion . Consensus was reached within days: one chance in 5.6 billion



I was thinking about this problem the other day. The Time Magazine calculation was (36/30)^154 = 1.56 trillion which is the correct calculation for not rolling a 7 one time before reaching 154 tries. Presumably whoever did that calculation did not know how to play craps, or didn't know how to do a Markov analysis.

The correct way to do this calculation was spelled out by the Wizard, but I was wondering if there was a good approximation. By trial and error, I discovered that if we allow 20% of the rolls to be coming out rolls (for rolls over 80) then you can get a reasonable approximation.

So (36/30)^(0.8*154) = 5,690,225,965 which is just over 1% too large than the true probability of 5,590,262,513

It's a good starting point, but it is an approximation.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 15th, 2015 at 11:15:26 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I was thinking about this problem the other day.

i was thinking about eating pizza the other day but am so glad i did not
tea and crackers and chicken noodle soup did the mend, thank you
Quote: pacomartin

The Time Magazine calculation was (36/30)^154 = 1.56 trillion which is the correct calculation for not rolling a 7 one time before reaching 154 tries. Presumably whoever did that calculation did not know how to play craps, or didn't know how to do a Markov analysis.

many say it is extremely a difficult problem to solve
but i (Sally) says this problem can easily be done with adding and multiply in a spreadsheet
i have shown this B4 too (2 or two)
maybe i links to it
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/19743-what-roll-is-a-craps-shooter-most-likely-to-7-out-on/
Quote: pacomartin

The correct way to do this calculation <snip>

you really mean

A
correct way

as there are more than one methods that produce correct answers
i personally have shown 2 ways in me past posts

SN Ethier went and found, using eigenvalues and eigenvectors, a closed form formula even
that is super super SUPER accurate from 2 to 200 rolls

we may not need any more
but to get close, glad you came up with it
fun

the record should be broken in March 2029
i have more work to do on that unless as Alan M says, Ahigh does it first!
Sally

added B4 lunch
for 80 rolls i get close with
=(36/30)^(0.7881645*80)
the average increase per roll going higher = 0.159455591

now lunch and ice cream

you may remember this thread
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=34550879&postcount=27

i mean, the one right above yours
looks to be another start
I Heart Vi Hart
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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March 15th, 2015 at 12:59:55 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i was thinking about eating pizza the other day but am so glad i did not
tea and crackers and chicken noodle soup did the mend, thank you
many say it is extremely a difficult problem to solve



1 in 27,182,178 is the odds of getting to 117 rolls of a dice (set in Las Vegas Stanley Fujitake of Honolulu previous world record)
1 in 5,590,264,072 is the odds of getting to 154 rolls of a dice (set in Atlantic City by Patricia De Mauru current world record)

Even though I have explained to people that you are so far out on the tail of the probability curve that it is not surprising that you would break a record of 117 by jumping up to 154 (without any recorded instances in between 117 and 154), most people feel that it is counter intuitive.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
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March 15th, 2015 at 3:06:17 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Even though I have explained to people that you are so far out on the tail of the probability curve that it is not surprising that you would break a record of 117 by jumping up to 154 (without any recorded instances in between 117 and 154), most people feel that it is counter intuitive.

yes, and those numbers are for just one shooter

think of how many hands there are over a years time
at all craps tables in the world
the chance that at least one hand goes past 117 seems more reasonable, i would think

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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