Merits of One Big Bet

Quote: rdw4potus

What is your goal? What happens when/if you lose?

Quote: rdw4potus

What is your goal? What happens when/if you lose?

Quote: RaleighCraps

I think you then plan on playing $64 across, and banking the remaining amount?

This will work, as long as you never lose that $430, but just as in my case, when it happens, and it will, you lose more than you are probably ahead.

I still think risking big money on one roll, and then regressing to play on the winnings could be a way to play. But you need to be very lucky to not lose the big bet. I certainly would not play this way with any money that is important to you.

If I get a good roll and get up again this weekend at Beau Rivage, I will be trying this again.

Quote: imaginal

Place: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10…$50 $75 $90 $90 $75 $50 = $430

Bring everything down after 1 hit.

Then an Initial Steep Regression... play with half the winnings.

Thoughts and suggestions?

Quote: imaginal

Place: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10…$50 $75 $90 $90 $75 $50 = $430

Bring everything down after 1 hit.

Then an Initial Steep Regression... play with half the winnings.

Thoughts and suggestions?

Quote: TheWolf713

It's possible, just play between what I call the "low roll averages"...
Okay even though the dice are independent, the average Roller goes between 4-6 rolls...
Now they also do a lot of PSO as well, but has any ever done the math on the 3 and outs..

Quote: TheWolf713

I bet if you did, you would find that number to be significantly lower than the PSO.

Quote: TheWolf713

So all you have to do is commit for 2-3 rolls after that and you can make some pretty good money....

Quote: imaginal

Limit exposure...increase winnings.

Quote: petroglyph

On the order you posted there, shots till the seven out[3,2,4,]
does that include the come out roll as 1, or does the count start on the first roll after the come out?

Quote: petroglyph

Would that make the #2 a pso or not?

Quote: petroglyph

The #4 there after the #2, not sure I can ask this right but is that because there's fewer shooter's making it that far?

Length	Count	%	or less	count
2	448	10.71%	10.71%	448
3	520	12.43%	23.14%	968
4	432	10.33%	33.47%	1400
5	424	10.14%	43.61%	1824
6	333	7.96%	51.57%	2157
7	270	6.45%	58.02%	2427
8	241	5.76%	63.78%	2668
9	205	4.90%	68.68%	2873
10	184	4.40%	73.08%	3057
11	159	3.80%	76.88%	3216
12	142	3.39%	80.28%	3358
13	115	2.75%	83.03%	3473
14	98	2.34%	85.37%	3571
15	97	2.32%	87.69%	3668
16	79	1.89%	89.58%	3747
17	58	1.39%	90.96%	3805
18	44	1.05%	92.02%	3849
19	37	0.88%	92.90%	3886
20	39	0.93%	93.83%	3925
21	43	1.03%	94.86%	3968
22	24	0.57%	95.43%	3992
23	28	0.67%	96.10%	4020
24	21	0.50%	96.61%	4041
25	21	0.50%	97.11%	4062
26	15	0.36%	97.47%	4077
27	19	0.45%	97.92%	4096
28	8	0.19%	98.11%	4104
29	9	0.22%	98.33%	4113
30	9	0.22%	98.54%	4122

Quote: TheWolf713

Thanks 7 craps...the data was very insightful... And it does show two sides of the spectrum... In one column it's show it as being the highest at 12 percent... But if the seven doesn't come it's the second lowest at 23 %... So if there is a 77% chance that the 7 will not come on the third roll... And from 4-6 rolls are all plus 50%... And at the 6th roll it goes back to the advantage of the house that the 7 is more likely to come (51% and rising)... So if you can see that perspective it technically makes that way of betting a profitable way of playing...

As you said this is over 4000 shooters... If we cut that variance down, I bet those numbers would change so much that people will say ,"why in the he'll haven't I played this way my whole life" .. Casins don't like it... Its really a hit and run approach.. And of course you won't get alot of comps... After doing this a couple of sessions, you'll always have the money to pay for everything you need..

The data above pretty much shows why the 3rd roll is the is the most optimal roll to start your betting...the 2nd roll is a guaranteed 10 percent.. That guarntee is higher over time because it does not change.. but eliminating that PSO (never betting on it) you are also cutting your loses by 10 percent over time because you have completely eliminated the 2nd roll... You will never be victim to a PSO again. That is a HUGE feat.... It would literally be a butterfly effect..

.But the 3rd roll is a determining factor of a roll... Would you not take those odds
At the worst (absolutely worst) it comes at 23%
But at it's best, it's a whopping 77-87%!!!! that's dam near guaranteed money...

It might not be popular, but this data proves that even over time, it's a sweet spot for money..

Quote: treetopbuddy

not trying to be a jerk here but are you saying you have cracked the game of craps?

Quote: TheWolf713

Lol , oh no no no.... I'm not that arrogant lol... It's just an option for some people to look into. I just see people standing at tables for hours teetering on their money.. I just wanted to throwthat perspective out there...

But the math favors it and at a table of only 16 guys that you physically can see, it can't be a bad idea... Even if you don't believe the concept will work just look at the percentage of PSOs you will dismiss.. That stat alone is a butterfly effect to success... Cutting 10 percent of your losses over time by not betting the 2nd roll...

Quote: treetopbuddy

if you wait until #3 to bet and get wacked by the 7 it's still going to feel like a PSO........hey, your trying, can't fault you for that....

Quote: TheWolf713

furthermore I wish there was a way to determine the stats of a 3 and out that immediately followed a PSO....it would probably be super low

Quote: 7craps

For the very next two shooters.
(counts all rolls of a shooters hand)

1st shooter 7out on 2nd roll: 0.111111111
then 2nd shooter 7out on 3rd roll: 0.116769547
(or reversed, out on 3rd roll followed by out on 2nd roll)

we multiply the two probabilities = 0.01297 or
1 in 77 sets of 2 shooters

If we look at the probability of any shooter to 7out on either the 2nd or 3rd roll
= 22.7880658436%

So over the next (say) 20 shooters, or any set of 20 shooters,
99.4329% chance of having at least 1 shooter going out on his 2nd or 3rd roll
96.0852% chance of having at least 2 shooters going out on his 2nd or 3rd roll
86.6990% chance of having at least 3 shooters going out on his 2nd or 3rd roll
70.0778% chance of having at least 4 shooters going out on his 2nd or 3rd roll
49.2293% chance of having at least 5 shooters going out on his 2nd or 3rd roll

So it is basically a coin flip to see 4 or less or 5 or more
relatively big numbers by expectation

Quote: TheWolf713

Here's a old post from the forum a live play....
Even if you do not keep betting with the shooter, over 40 rolls you would still be up.

This is without even going with the long rolls... If you went with one, you would already have reached a win goal of a profit.. (hit and run)

In this data, more than likely i would have been gone after the second roller or perhaps The 22 roll. (I just leave after decent rolls.. I feel that is about as good as it will get. And if you are betting right your profit will show.) no need to stick around

This is just an example in small setting of what I mean

shooter #1	
cor	8,6,9,9,5,7,out	(6,#)	
shooter #1	6 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
4 # Place Hits

shooter #2	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	10,8,9,8,3,9,6h,10,win	(8,#)	
cor	4,2,3,4,win	(4,#)	
cor	8,9,5,6,10,8,win	(6,#)	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	10,8,10,win	(3,#)	
cor	9,5,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #2	26 roll hand
7 # COR
4 # Point Wins
3 # Fire Bets
6,1 shooter score: pass,miss
11 # Place Hits

shooter #3	
cor	6,5,3,5,7,out	(5,#)	
shooter #3	5 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
2 # Place Hits

shooter #4	
cor	8,3,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #4	3 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #5	
cor	5,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #5	2 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #6	
cor	6,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #6	2 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #7	
cor	6,8h,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #7	3 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
1 # Place Hits

shooter #8	
cor	6,8,12,8,10,9,7,out	(7,#)	
shooter #8	7 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
4 # Place Hits

shooter #9	
cor	6,12,9,6,win	(4,#)	
cor	10,3,8h,4h,7,out	(5,#)	
shooter #9	9 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
3 # Place Hits

shooter #10	
cor	6,9,6h,win	(3,#)	
cor	5,6,3,9,8h,7,out	(6,#)	
shooter #10	9 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
4 # Place Hits

shooter #11	
cor	8,8h,win	(2,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	10,8,4,8h,10,win	(5,#)	
cor	10h,8,9,7,out	(4,#)	
shooter #11	12 roll hand
4 # COR
2 # Point Wins
2 # Fire Bets
3,1 shooter score: pass,miss
5 # Place Hits

shooter #12	
cor	8,8,win	(2,#)	
cor	8,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #12	4 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #13	
cor	6,5,2,8,9,4h,3,6,win	(8,#)	
cor	8,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #13	10 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
4 # Place Hits

shooter #14	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	6,10,11,12,6h,win	(5,#)	
cor	3,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	6,11,5,12,10h,4,5,8,7,out	(9,#)	
shooter #14	17 roll hand
5 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
3,2 shooter score: pass,miss
6 # Place Hits

shooter #15	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #15	3 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #16	
cor	3,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,6h,4,9,win	(4,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	10,10,win	(2,#)	
cor	6,6,win	(2,#)	
cor	2,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	6,6,win	(2,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	6,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #16	17 roll hand
10 # COR
4 # Point Wins
3 # Fire Bets
7,3 shooter score: pass,miss
2 # Place Hits

shooter #17	
cor	9,5,9,win	(3,#)	
cor	2,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	9,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #17	6 roll hand
3 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,2 shooter score: pass,miss
1 # Place Hits

shooter #18	
cor	2,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	6,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #18	3 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,2 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #19	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	6,8,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #19	4 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
1 # Place Hits

shooter #20	
cor	5,5,win	(2,#)	
cor	10,5,11,6,6,9,8,4,7,out	(9,#)	
shooter #20	11 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
6 # Place Hits

shooter #21	
cor	5,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #21	2 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #22	
cor	10h,4h,5,9,9,11,12,10h,win	(8,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,6,5,11,6,11,8,8,8h,9,win	(10,#)	
cor	4,9,9,6,9,11,9,7,out	(8,#)	
shooter #22	27 roll hand
4 # COR
2 # Point Wins
2 # Fire Bets
3,1 shooter score: pass,miss
15 # Place Hits

shooter #23	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,6,4,7,out	(4,#)	
shooter #23	5 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
2 # Place Hits

shooter #24	
cor	9,10,2,3,5,6,8,8,7,out	(9,#)	
shooter #24	9 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
5 # Place Hits

shooter #25	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	6,5,5,7,out	(4,#)	
shooter #25	5 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
2 # Place Hits

shooter #26	
cor	10h,8,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #26	3 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
1 # Place Hits

shooter #27	
cor	2,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	12,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	5,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #27	6 roll hand
5 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
2,3 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #28	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	4h,11,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #28	4 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #29	
cor	9,10,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #29	3 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
1 # Place Hits

shooter #30	
cor	5,10,6,2,4,3,5,win	(7,#)	
cor	6,9,4,7,out	(4,#)	
shooter #30	11 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
5 # Place Hits

shooter #31	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #31	3 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #32	
cor	4h,8,6,7,out	(4,#)	
shooter #32	4 roll hand
1 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
0,1 shooter score: pass,miss
2 # Place Hits

shooter #33	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,10,8,9,win	(4,#)	
cor	5,4,7,out	(3,#)	
shooter #33	8 roll hand
3 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
2,1 shooter score: pass,miss
3 # Place Hits

shooter #34	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	10h,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #34	4 roll hand
3 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
2,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

shooter #35	
cor	5,8,6,5,win	(4,#)	
cor	9,4h,6,12,4h,11,7,out	(7,#)	
shooter #35	11 roll hand
2 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
5 # Place Hits

shooter #36	
cor	8h,8h,win	(2,#)	
cor	9,6,9,win	(3,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	3,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	10h,12,3,4h,11,6h,11,8h,9,6h,9,7,out	(12,#)	
shooter #36	19 roll hand
5 # COR
2 # Point Wins
2 # Fire Bets
3,2 shooter score: pass,miss
7 # Place Hits

shooter #37	
cor	4,6,11,5,6,6,2,4,win	(8,#)	
cor	12,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	5,12,6,9,8,7,out	(6,#)	
shooter #37	15 roll hand
3 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
1,2 shooter score: pass,miss
7 # Place Hits

shooter #38	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	11,win	(1,#)	
cor	5,3,8,5,win	(4,#)	
cor	9,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #38	9 roll hand
5 # COR
1 # Point Wins
1 # Fire Bets
4,1 shooter score: pass,miss
1 # Place Hits

shooter #39	
cor	3,crap out	(1,#)	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	6,6,win	(2,#)	
cor	9,12,5,11,9,win	(5,#)	
cor	10,5,5,7,out	(4,#)	
shooter #39	13 roll hand
5 # COR
2 # Point Wins
2 # Fire Bets
3,2 shooter score: pass,miss
3 # Place Hits

shooter #40	
cor	7,win	(1,#)	
cor	9,7,out	(2,#)	
shooter #40	3 roll hand
2 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
1,1 shooter score: pass,miss
0 # Place Hits

Quote: TheWolf713

Here's an example..

Come out roll point us 8....
1st roll after comeout: skip
2nd roll: turn on bets.. This a committed roll.. Place bets no less than 100 bucks.. I.e 380 inside (100 on the 5 & 9 and 90 on the 6 & 8) or whatever you choose... You can't worry about winning or losing.. Just commit
3rd roll: hopefully you have hit one or two numbers if not it's okay.
4th roll: this is on you whether to take all bets down or continue.. Your money will be negative if you continue (meaning you will be trying to get back what place bets you have to get even), but if you come down with everything, you will already have a winning roll regardless
5th roll: all on you if you committed to the shooter or if you committed to banking your win..

Does anybody have a program capable of this simulation

Starting bank roll 2000
400 on 4 place bets
Skip first roll after come out and turn off after 4 or 5 rolls

Quote: 7craps

I probably already have a few sims like this.
I did a few on what I think you want. ( you will be disappointed if I understand the system)


You are saying once there is a new shooter, do not bet on his first 2 rolls (including his first come out roll)
Only the 3rd and 4th rolls of his hand (maybe the 5th - maybe is hard to simulate)

Shooter#1, roll 1,2, no bets working
rolls 3,4 work bets
rolls 5 and until 7out off wait til next shooter.

Option
Shooter#1, roll 1,2,no bets working
3,4 and 5 work bets
rolls 6 and until 7out off wait til next shooter.

or are you not betting any come out roll for any shooter?
Example: 6,6 two rolls just went by. a point winner
the next roll is the same shooter's 3rd roll and a come out roll
Do you bet now?
I would guess so as the dice do not know or even care it is a come out roll.
It is the shooter's 3rd roll

If you wants, update your method, and
I update my sims and post the results for your 20 shooter sessions and the session above (the 40 shooter)
I did a few sims already on the above methods
(betting on only roll 3,4 (or 3,4 and 5) per shooter)

Quote: FleaStiff

The house edge applies to each and every roll.
You put up a humungous amount and it is "at risk"... no matter what your hopes and expectations are, that very next roll can be a layout-clearing "Seven Out".
"430 Across" may make you feel brave and happy but every now and then: ... Up Jumps The Devil.

Make a big bet and the very next thing out of the stickman's mouth is Seven Out. It happens. You may not get that first hit much less the second one you were secretly going to try for too.

Quote: TheWolf713

Yes that's pretty much the gist off it...Off for 1 & 2 (the come and first roll)... On for 3-4 maybe 5 sometimes... I know it won't be as accurate but the numbers would be good to see...

Quote: TheWolf713

7craps thanks for the data... I wouldn't do what most people do and try argue with numbers.. Numbers don't lie...

With that being said... When someone can put in a instinct program into the data... I'll go with it... The computer will do exactly what we tell it to do, but it won't know when to take the risk.. For example, on the Shooter 22, the computer can't use a instinct to keep playing... That is an example of a win that probably would not be calculated..

Quote: TheWolf713

Question: when you say 48 percent ended up, you mean with the win correct?

Quote: TheWolf713

One more note... In real play I honestly would have left after shooter 2... Instinct probably would have kicked in.. Unlike most guys in the casino,, I have no problems leaving after 5-20 mins..