BAD DICE: the saga CONTINUES
And every brand new car gets the ash tray filled up.... so you realize that you need to empty the ash tray not buy another brand new car.Quote: AhighEvery die is biased.
The bias is so ultra minute that it is not even exploitable. By the time the bias becomes exploitable they've been lying in the gift shop for weeks.
The casino wants a fair game and replacing the dice after just one roll is simply not required any more than they replace the tray lizards after just one night.
.jpeg "Bohemian"){kind=small}
Quote: AlanMendelsonBefore I bother to do that I have to be shown that casinos have bias dice. Sorry.
Seems like this whole issue could be put to rest if either AlanMendelson did his job as a self proclaimed Consumer Advocate or Wizard of Odds did his job with either Las Vegas Caesar's dice or Gold Coast dice or Aria dice or Downtown Las Vegas Golden Nugget, preferably from a Saturday night shift it looks like.
Quote: FleaStiffAnd every brand new car gets the ash tray filled up.... so you realize that you need to empty the ash tray not buy another brand new car.
The bias is so ultra minute that it is not even exploitable. By the time the bias becomes exploitable they've been lying in the gift shop for weeks.
The casino wants a fair game and replacing the dice after just one roll is simply not required any more than they replace the tray lizards after just one night.
FleaStiff - do you have proof for your casino dice fairness allegations?
Quote: BohemianSeems like this whole issue could be put to rest if either AlanMendelson did his job as a self proclaimed Consumer Advocate or Wizard of Odds did his job with either Las Vegas Caesar's dice or Gold Coast dice or Aria dice or Downtown Las Vegas Golden Nugget, preferably from a Saturday night shift it looks like.
I have no reason to investigate this. I have been at tables where the same dice have produced point-sevens and have also produced monster rolls.
But please, be my guest and do whatever research you like and if you have proof (and I mean real proof that will hold up in a court of law) I will be the first to put it on TV.
But before he will bother to download a spreadsheet and punch in a couple of numbers, I need to prove to him something or another.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI will be the first to put it on TV.
LO freaking L. Yeah, and I'm sure it would be an in depth and quality coverage.
Quote: AhighLO freaking L. Yeah, and I'm sure it would be an in depth and quality coverage.
^5 Ahigh
Investigative reporter Bob Woodward nor Carl Bernstein he is not, but if someone gave AlanMendelson the story on a silver platter.
For those who are flush with time here in Vegas, get a clicker counter and show up and keep 'em honest. Exploiting the don't pass you have to wade through volatility, but you can exploit the free lay odds bets too if you can characterize a bias for a particular kind of die and know what to look for.
Quote: Bohemian^5 Ahigh
Investigative reporter Bob Woodward nor Carl Bernstein he is not, but if someone gave AlanMendelson the story on a silver platter.
Quote: AhighLO freaking L. Yeah, and I'm sure it would be an in depth and quality coverage.
Perhaps both of you misunderstood me. I said if you bring me proof -- your proof -- I will put it on TV. I am not going to investigate your claims. But if you have the proof -- proof that will stand up in court -- I will put it on my TV show. And Ahigh, I have a few more viewers than you do. Just a few. Not many more. Just a few.
Quote: AlanMendelsonPerhaps both of you misunderstood me. I said if you bring me proof -- your proof -- I will put it on TV. I am not going to investigate your claims. But if you have the proof -- proof that will stand up in court -- I will put it on my TV show. And Ahigh, I have a few more viewers than you do. Just a few. Not many more. Just a few.
I have a hard 8.
I looked at our you tube video views. You have 18 times as many total video views as I do.
I have 71 subscribers 43,828 views in 93 videos
You have 453 subscribers 888,612 views in 920 videos
So with ten times as many videos you have 18 times as many views, or about twice as many viewers per video as I have.
But I will give you credit for being right about that. I'm new at this, too, so it's not surprising you've got me beat on number of viewers.
Also, your viewers are from a wider audience than mine. Mine actually are interested in the subject being discussed.
Quote: AhighFWIW The Wiz is also taking the position that there is nothing to the possibility that dice could be designed in a way that's compatible with having an edge on mathematically free bets. Just randomness. I mean he hasn't given anything but a scoff to the notion.
For those who are flush with time here in Vegas, get a clicker counter and show up and keep 'em honest. Exploiting the don't pass you have to wade through volatility, but you can exploit the free lay odds bets too if you can characterize a bias for a particular kind of die and know what to look for.
You mean the Wiz of Odds refuses to test the odds on live casino dice? Sounds like a fraud to me.
Quote: BohemianYou mean the Wiz of Odds refuses to test the odds on live casino dice? Sounds like a fraud to me.
Harley, is that you?
Quote: AhighFWIW The Wiz is also taking the position that there is nothing to the possibility that dice could be designed in a way that's compatible with having an edge on mathematically free bets. Just randomness. I mean he hasn't given anything but a scoff to the notion.
I don't think that is quite fair, nor accurate. Of course the dice can be designed in a way to favor certain bets over others. What most of the 'disbelievers' have been saying is that there are no casinos that would risk the conspiracy necessary to use such either manufactured or post manufacture altered dice. It is pretty easy to show mathematically that a single alteration which increases the "5" from showing up on each die will tremendously favor a right way bettor. The converse would be true of a "2".
Aaron's statement that 'all dice are biased' is of course true. But the biases are probably so small as to be totally insignificant in the real world. And if these miniscule biases are random, that makes them 'insignificanter' (I like making up words).
Just to humor me, at what level of management does the 'order' come in to use cheating dice? CEO? Casino table games supervisor? Pit boss? Stick man?
Do you think the manufacturer of these loaded dice charges more to the casino for them than regular dice?
Quote: SOOPOOI don't think that is quite fair, nor accurate. Of course the dice can be designed in a way to favor certain bets over others. What most of the 'disbelievers' have been saying is that there are no casinos that would risk the conspiracy necessary to use such either manufactured or post manufacture altered dice. It is pretty easy to show mathematically that a single alteration which increases the "5" from showing up on each die will tremendously favor a right way bettor. The converse would be true of a "2".
Aaron's statement that 'all dice are biased' is of course true. But the biases are probably so small as to be totally insignificant in the real world. And if these miniscule biases are random, that makes them 'insignificanter' (I like making up words).
Just to humor me, at what level of management does the 'order' come in to use cheating dice? CEO? Casino table games supervisor? Pit boss? Stick man?
Do you think the manufacturer of these loaded dice charges more to the casino for them than regular dice?
Your making a critical assumption that the casinos have to be "in on it" so to speak in order for this to be true.
I believe this is a happy ignorance of "if it ain't broke don't fix it."
There are two cases: the dice are biased against the common free bets or they aren't.
It's a simple math problem after doing the very difficult labor of counting faces to assert that they are not. But nobody wants to do the work because they can't fathom that it's possible from their limited view on how this might be possible.
It's possible.
Quote: BohemianI don't wear a mask. I just don't understand how someone can claim to be the Wizard of Odds and put himself out there as testing odds on everything casino and even have a Blacklist of violators, but refuses to test live casino dice without a valid reason, unless he is either a fake, a fraud or on the take?
Quote: Bohemiantest live casino dice without a valid reason
I think you just answered your own question. I don't think there is a valid reason.
With the exception of Ahigh and Harley is there anyone on this forum who suspects biased dice? Please speak up.
Quote: SOOPOOJust to humor me, at what level of management does the 'order' come in to use cheating dice? CEO? Casino table games supervisor? Pit boss? Stick man?
Simple answer, depends on the casino. It is the person that whoever benefits from the increased profits that the use of unbalanced dice would give them. That usually involves someone outside and above the Pit Boss area. Follow the money.
Quote: SOOPOODo you think the manufacturer of these loaded dice charges more to the casino for them than regular dice?
I doubt it, but why don't you ask them if they charge less for unbalanced dice than they do for balanced dice. A simple call to a dice factory revealed that one dice factory even offers a twisted axis dice which is popular among Mississippi River boat casinos.
http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/p/cheating-casinos.html
Now I'm wondering if it's Harley.
All I want to say is that I did all the work to prove that Harley was full of shit, and as I followed through that work, it turns out everything I found supports his theories rather than refutes them.
I hate the work of counting faces, and I have other things to do.
Other people should love this stuff. The spreadsheet is there and it's easy work. Just time consuming and boring to me.
But it's simple work to profit from any bias you can accurately characterize no matter where it comes from (mirror slamming, grinding, etc, even works).
Quote: BohemianA simple call to a dice factory revealed that one dice factory even offers a twisted axis dice which is popular among Mississippi River boat casinos.
Would you please tell me who I should simply call and what dice factory offers twisted axis dice to which Mississippi River boat casinos? Let's go-- name names.
Quote: AhighYour making a critical assumption that the casinos have to be "in on it" so to speak in order for this to be true.
I believe this is a happy ignorance of "if it ain't broke don't fix it."
There are two cases: the dice are biased against the common free bets or they aren't.
It's a simple math problem after doing the very difficult labor of counting faces to assert that they are not. But nobody wants to do the work because they can't fathom that it's possible from their limited view on how this might be possible.
It's possible.
Sure it's possible. It's also possible that earthlings were created when Martians visited this planet 20 million years ago and impregnated fish while bathing in the Red Sea.
Ahigh you work for the biggest manufacturer and supplier of gaming terminals to casinos not only in Nevada but also the USA and probably the world. And for you to raise speculation that the customers and clients of your employer are openly engaged in unlawful activities probably puts your own personal welfare at high risk. So I would suggest to you that you stop suggesting things that are "possible" and start to think about coming up with proof before you make allegations on the Internet that might ruin the livelihood that supports you, your family, and your well known habit of daily craps play. Just a bit of advice: watch out.
Quote: BohemianFleaStiff - do you have proof for your casino dice fairness allegations?
I linked dice fairness after one night of use to Tray Lizards after one night of being bedded.
Now just which of those two topics do you think I would prefer to spend time gathering proof about?
Quote: AlanMendelsonSure it's possible. It's also possible that earthlings were created when Martians visited this planet 20 million years ago and impregnated fish while bathing in the Red Sea.
Ahigh you work for the biggest manufacturer and supplier of gaming terminals to casinos not only in Nevada but also the USA and probably the world. And for you to raise speculation that the customers and clients of your employer are openly engaged in unlawful activities probably puts your own personal welfare at high risk. So I would suggest to you that you stop suggesting things that are "possible" and start to think about coming up with proof before you make allegations on the Internet that might ruin the livelihood that supports you, your family, and your well known habit of daily craps play. Just a bit of advice: watch out.
I don't know of any laws relating to ensuring that the outcomes of the dice have even distributions that pass any chi-squared tests.
The opinions that I express on this message board are my own and do not reflect the opinions of my employer. However, my employer has VERY high standards when it comes to these types of things as they should and as the casinos should. We have very strict whistle blower policies that protect people who are in this position, and I have absolutely no fear whatsoever.
If anything, the fact that I am inside the industry should lend credibility to the research that I am doing in this area. The cat is out of the bag, and if I worked at a casino that had a lucky player in the field, I would be doing my homework not just changing from paying triple to double on the 12 like the Cosmopolitan and the LVH did last year.
The fact remains, however, that there is no person continuing research into this area as there is no person concerned about this being an opportunity for a player (EG: to exploit the don't with max lay odds or the field).
I expect that if this is real, someone will exploit the don't or the field. But it won't be me!!! I might poke at it, but I'm not making and financial windfalls as a result of anything I learn here. There are plenty of other people who's character falls into exploiting this possibility. It's easy to do if it's real. If it's not real it will never happen.
Either way, it's boring stuff to me.
But research into gambling stuff is what I do, and while I appreciate your concern, direct it elsewhere.
1 face: 29
2 face: 30
3 face: 32
4 face: 30
5 face: 36
6 face: 25
The get a "pass" rating for fair dice. The 5 faces reflected the fact that we saw an unusually high number of hard tens.
I shot the dice and just shook 'em up and rolled 'em from the don't side. I did one controlled shot the entire day after I was loaded up with lay odds behind every number except the four. I rolled a 4-3 and it wedged right into corner at the base of the wall with absolutely no bounce.
Everybody lost but me.
The crew at Gold Coast was very entertained by my having the counter on the rail.
Great fun. I almost never play the don't, but I have to admit delivering a controlled shot for that red was very satisfying.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13I can't believe this is all coming up again. Ahigh is going to be in heaven. Now he can talk about his fake control, fake biased dice and fake consistant wins at the casino. And it seems he's got a previously booted friend joining in on the fun. I doubt he'll be here that long though.
ZCore13
Hey since it's okay to call people names according to your recent post where you flagrantly call the policies of this board "lame" how does it feel to be a certified _________? (Be creative people!!!)
ZCore13
Even when you talk about my elevator not stopping at every floor, you're not talking about what I wrote, you're making a derogatory comment about me.
And that's what is against the policy of the forum.
And lame or not, you have a tendency to make derogatory comments about other people whether you skirt the rules or not you want to paint the person with descriptive words that indicate that you think that person has issues.
The policy here is to address the writing not the person. That's what you seem to not understand.
I didn't call you a name up there, and I skirted the rules just like you have a habit of doing. But consider it tit for tat as you seem to think it's funny to insult people and imply things about them that are not pleasant.
That's what you do in your writing.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13That's not the only one.
ZCore13
Right, you're talking about me, not what I write. You fail to understand the spirit behind the rules. And you fail to understand many other things as well.
So even if my elevator doesn't "stop on every floor" .. you fail to understand very basic things that I explain to you.
That's why I don't like the things that you write. That's why I don't value your input as much as others. And that's why I think if you don't want to follow the rules, you are more than welcome to simply stop posting on the forum and go somewhere else.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13Thank you oh important one.
ZCore13
Sarcastically implying that I am unimportant. Here's my sarcastic reply: Wow what an improvement.
You have failed. You fail frequently. In fact, I don't even see evidence that you are trying. With anything.
I can understand why you have a hard time relating to someone who puts forth as much effort as I do.
But flagrantly posting about how anything is "lame" as it relates to the rules that are set up to prevent people from doing what you enjoy doing frequently seems like a plea for you to be dealt with from a moderator.
GOOD LUCK!
Quote: AhighEvery die is biased. Let's not argue about this please. You are wrong if you think a single fair die exists anywhere except in theory.
This is all a measure of how much not if it's there or not.
I think the disconnect is between a theoretical bias and a practical one. Nothing is perfect, not dice, not roulette wheels, not Big Six wheels, etc. That doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is whether a bias in a die is sufficient to make a meaningful difference to any aspect of the game. That's a practical bias, and nobody's ever demonstrated that a practical bias exists. To be clear, a shifted center of mass in a die that leads to a 1.414141413% house edge on the passline is not a practical bias.
Quote: MathExtremistI think the disconnect is between a theoretical bias and a practical one. Nothing is perfect, not dice, not roulette wheels, not Big Six wheels, etc. That doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is whether a bias in a die is sufficient to make a meaningful difference to any aspect of the game. That's a practical bias, and nobody's ever demonstrated that a practical bias exists. To be clear, a shifted center of mass in a die that leads to a 1.414141413% house edge on the passline is not a practical bias.
These are astute observations. But when you employ 20x odds or higher, it easily is the dominant effect.
The issue is one of protection more than increased revenue, IMO. The game is a low edge game. Double zero roulette makes craps seem like a game where the casino just gives away money with free bets in comparison.
So it's not like biased dice make craps like double-zero roulette.
Stupid bets from stupid players handle that.
But the issue is more about casinos that employ higher than the typical 345x odds and might, as a result, prefer to use dice that demonstrate better holds. Just a trial an error process could lead them to using biased dice without knowing why the holds are better.
That's about it.
I think this is less likely to be a problem at a casino that uses higher quality dice and employ 345x odds on a felt that pays triple in the field and has plenty of casual field betters (or big bankroll large bet field players).
The places that have 10x odds on a $3-$5 table are really the only places that might find that there are too many players doing 5x or higher odds and taking too much money. But it's still not going to be as bad as games with seriously high edges like double zero roulette.
Quote: AhighSarcastically implying that I am unimportant. Here's my sarcastic reply: Wow what an improvement.
You have failed. You fail frequently. In fact, I don't even see evidence that you are trying. With anything.
I can understand why you have a hard time relating to someone who puts forth as much effort as I do.
But flagrantly posting about how anything is "lame" as it relates to the rules that are set up to prevent people from doing what you enjoy doing frequently seems like a plea for you to be dealt with from a moderator.
GOOD LUCK!
$100 says you are dealt with by a moderator (once again) before I ever am. I'm pretty sure I was here well before you and will be well after.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13$100 says you are dealt with by a moderator (once again) before I ever am. I'm pretty sure I was here well before you and will be well after.
ZCore13
Paypal it to the Wizard and send me proof. I would be surprised for you to cough up a dime, and if you do, I wouldn't be surprised to have your money tomorrow.
Quote: BohemianI don't wear a mask. I just don't understand how someone can claim to be the Wizard of Odds and put himself out there as testing odds on everything casino and even have a Blacklist of violators, but refuses to test live casino dice without a valid reason, unless he is either a fake, a fraud or on the take?
He doesn't "put himself out there" if you actually read what he's doing. Everything (to my knowledge) that Mike has ever tested has been software. The requirements for testing software are (a) having a computer and (b) knowing what you're doing. Large, well-equipped organizations such as GLI or BMM are engaged in the testing of physical casino equipment such as slot machines, dice, or roulette wheels, and they charge meaningful fees for their services to account for their physical plant requirements.
It is foolish to suggest that Mike should -- for free -- spend his time and effort setting up the requisite infrastructure for the purposes of running statistical tests on physical dice. I'm sure if he were offered sufficient compensation he'd be happy to open up a "physical dice testing lab" but I won't begin to hazard a guess as to what that compensation might be.
Quote: AhighThese are astute observations. But when you employ 20x odds or higher, it easily is the dominant effect.
You have no way of quantifying this. Neither you nor anyone else has actually run a statistical test on an intentionally and quantifiably biased die to determine the resultant probability distribution, and therefore you cannot substantiate the notion that there is a practical bias on a 20x odds bet. It doesn't matter if a bias in a die may result in the house edge of the odds bet being 0% +/- 0.00001%. In other words, the "dominant effect" is not necessarily a relevant or practical effect.
"Biased dice?!"
What's next?
Are you lads going to chart the casinos for theri "prevailing wind currents" which can affect the "biased dice?"
What, will some of you prefer a "north-south" over and "east-west?"
Quote: MathExtremistYou have no way of quantifying this.
Yeah, I do. If one face comes up a fraction of a percentage higher, it skews the edge of a free bet towards or away from a player's advantage.
The effect of the skew is easily higher than combined odds on 20x.
I quantify this effect with a spreadsheet (earlier in this thread.)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13148-bad-dice-the-saga-continues/28/#post227534
I also recently posted a thread that has the combined edge of passline with odds for every combination of maximum number of line bets and odds multiple.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13842-expected-loss-per-hour/4/#post239795
Putting those two things together, you can easily see that dice that favor a given face easily outweighs the math for 20x odds in a majority of situations .. and especially when you get a lot of action on every roll working the comeout and betting the come every roll with 20x odds and so on.
Quote: AhighYeah, I do. If one face comes up a fraction of a percentage higher, it skews the edge of a free bet towards or away from a player's advantage.
That's obvious, but it's not the issue. The question is whether you have demonstrated that any actual die in any actual casino exhibits the theoretical bias you have modeled. You used, I recall, a 9/8/8/8/8/9 face distribution, or in other words, the probability of 1 and 6 increases to 18% while the probability of 2-5 decrease to 16%. That is, in my estimation, an extremely unlikely level of bias to be found in any casino die and one that you have not supported by any empirical research or evidence.
I am willing to be proven wrong, of course, but in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, it seems unreasonable to conclude that dice games are necessarily using biased dice merely because the odds would change if the dice were biased.
Oh, that magical voodoo again, the process that can't be described here.Quote: AhighExploiting the don't pass you have to wade through volatility, but you can exploit the free lay odds bets too if you can characterize a bias for a particular kind of die and know what to look for.
Quote: MathExtremistI am willing to be proven wrong, of course, but in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, it seems unreasonable to conclude that dice games are necessarily using biased dice merely because the odds would change if the dice were biased.
FWIW, I don't conclude that. But if the evidence is there, I have all of the tools necessary for anyone to exploit it right there in those two links.
It's a ton of work to get evidence of biased dice. And if you get the evidence, once those dice are retired you have to start all over again.
Each stick of dice is unique. That is something that I know and something that I can prove. Very very easily.
But biased dice being used? Absolutely!
Can you take advantage of the bias? Probably if you have enough of a bankroll and enough time and resources to profile.
Would it be worth it?
Depends on how much bias you could assert for a pair or a stick and how much bankroll you have to throw at the problem.
The bias from two specific dice if you could quantify it would very easily be in the 0.1% edge per roll though. You would just need a ton of time and bank to turn it into something worthwhile.
I have no idea how big the most biased dice you might exploit might be.
But the entire thing is very real and plausible to me, anyway, regardless of whoever says it's not real, I think it can be done and all the evidence that I have says it can be done. Time, labor, energy, and patience are the hardest parts of the equation. And I get bored very easily with this stuff.
Someone else that has all the time and money to throw into a bankroll I'm more than willing to let them try to do the exploit by telling them what I know and what I think they should do.
One of the great things for this exploit is that you want the game to go super duper fast and random roll! So it COULD be really fun if you got good at it.
The law of New Jersey regulating dice, whose precise specifications to the thousandths of an inch has been posted here, has never been challenged or even technically or legally questioned in its entire existence.Quote: AhighI don't know of any laws relating to ensuring that the outcomes of the dice have even distributions that pass any chi-squared tests.
Quote: SanchoPanzaThe law of New Jersey regulating dice, whose precise specifications to the thousandths of an inch has been posted here, has never been challenged or even technically or legally questioned in its entire existence.
Not sure what you're point is, but what I'm saying is that there is no law for a casino to put what it believes to be a fair stick of dice into play that happens to have outcomes that are statistically unlikely to occur from a fair stick of dice. IE: there is no penalty for dice that seem fair by measurements but don't behave fairly in practice.
Measurements and even balance are the most commonly perceived things to affect fairness.
But what do the laws say about the rigidity of the pips relative to the rigidity of the rest of the die?
What do they say about the symmetry of the holes drilled in the cubes?
What do they say about dice that exhibit outcomes that are statistically unlikely to be that from fair dice?
I'm saying they say nothing about these things. Measurement and less often balance are the only things that are ever discussed by the law. But it's conceivable that other things play a role in fairness when it comes to the outcomes, but the outcomes are not monitored at all on a long-term scale.
Quote: AhighCan you take advantage of the bias? Probably if you have enough of a bankroll.
This is where we disagree. I don't believe there is any exploitable, practical bias in a casino craps game despite whatever bias may exist in today's casino dice. In order to exploit such a bias, one would need to identify it, quantify it, and wager properly on it, all during the eight-hour time allotted for those dice to be used. I do not believe anyone has the capability of exploiting any inherent defects of the die manufacturing process during the working lifetime of any stick of casino dice.
In fact, I would be surprised if someone could exploit the (obviously much larger) inherent defects of the non-casino die manufacturing process over an 8 hour period. To test this, get a stick of 5 drug store dice, the kind with dimpled pips and rounded edges. Play craps for 8 hours, recording your bets, and see if you win. If you do, demonstrate that your winnings were due to exploiting your perception of bias in the drugstore dice.
Quote: AhighNot sure what you're point is, but what I'm saying is that there is no law for a casino to put what it believes to be a fair stick of dice into play that happens to have outcomes that are statistically unlikely to occur from a fair stick of dice. IE: there is no penalty for dice that seem fair by measurements but don't behave fairly in practice. Measurements and even balance are the most commonly perceived things to affect fairness. But what do the laws say about the rigidity of the pips relative to the rigidity of the rest of the die?
What do they say about the symmetry of the holes drilled in the cubes? What do they say about dice that exhibit outcomes that are statistically unlikely to be that from fair dice? I'm saying they say nothing about these things.
Then you have not bothered to read what was posted and instead continue to post sweeping and mistaken generalizations.
Quote: SanchoPanzaThen you have not bothered to read what was posted and instead continue to post sweeping and mistaken generalizations.
No I probably read what you are thinking of, I just have no clue what you're talking about. Maybe you could be clearer in whatever point it is that you are trying to make.
But if there continues to be interest, like the previous times, I will publish more stuff about this.
If you guys don't want to talk about this, don't, though.
ZCore13
