Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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February 23rd, 2013 at 6:55:18 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

IMO this is the wrong goal to have; earning enough, saving enough. investing correctly, keeping control of yourself along with maintaining and enjoying the support of your spouse and family so that you have such a sufficient bankroll, with family support, for your recreation that the ups and downs won't matter.

This is the right goal for Craps play if I may be so flattered as to think anyone cares for my opinion. [a bunch of stuff deleted here] I think I will blog about this instead of hijacking the thread. You've got me going!

As to trying to address your question, you need to get the best chances at variance while keeping an eye on HE at the same time. Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds and if you in fact do *not* like experiencing the variance, dial down the odds to 3x4x5x or even 2x or so. You want the HE less than one percent. Beyond that, it is just luck, so good luck to you!



I will add to this that I fall outside of the norm when it comes to asking variance to come along to your party to increase your wins.

Variance does NOT increase your wins. Variance increases your CHANCE to win at the cost of increasing your chance to LOSE at an equal amount.

When people get on this forum and they start following the advice about minimizing the edge by asking variance to come over to the party, they often have no concept of what variance is until they have lost.

Then they get back on the forum and say, "I LOST WHAT DID I DO WRONG."

And the answer is, "YOU WANTED A CHANCE TO WIN, RIGHT? YOU LOST!"

Listen, even if you have no shot at all to win from profits at the table, there is value to much more than winning a few chips from a few bets.

1) Free drinks
2) Comps
3) Socializing with people that might be above your normal social circles (not at the 10x and 20x tables, but at the 3x4x5x tables usually)

There are a lot of factors to going out and feeling like a winner. And winning at the tables is just one of many factors to consider when you want to feel like a successful person who happens to play craps.

Even the guy who follows all of the advice given by the geniuses nerds on the WOV with math that checks out with every gambling math guy in the world AND who wins thousands of dollars following that advice .. will keep playing .. and guess what? He hasn't won more money, he just had more ups and downs on his inevitable path to losses.

If you stick with low variance play and you enjoy the other things that are a win ... like going out and having a great time and winning a LITTLE BIT of money and coming home no poorer than when you left, you might find you can be a winner more OFTEN by employing strategies with LESS VARIANCE.

Stomaching the ups and downs is absolutely the profession of financial geniuses, but if you're just starting out, don't blindly take the advice of math guys who fancy themselves knowledgeable who have less playing experience than Ahigh has.

Low variance can be a good thing for a new guy.

And trust me, if you put $100 on the pass line for your first bet and you take no odds, some guys/dealers/whoever might .. and I mean MIGHT say "save it for your odds buddy" if you happen to have a four roll on the comeout.

But when the yo rolls on the comeout, YOU can be jumping up and down and saying, "awwww, what happened math genius?" And then say "COLOR" and leave.

It's a game, and treat it as such. The difference between 1.41% and ANYTHING lower in an edge takes thousands of events to matter. Enjoy your 20 to 500 events with any edge between 1.41% and 0.00% with a full knowledge of the variance that can take you down JUST AS EASILY as it can take you up.

IE: bold play works even better if you want to win, and free bets require that you bet MORE THAN ONCE.

One more statement: the best way to be a lifetime winner at ANY game in ANY casino is to bold play the game for a single event and never play the game again. I am a lifetime winner at blackjack because I played for one hand on a $50 coupon and I won. If I enjoyed playing that game, I would be much less likely to be beating the pants off many other people who know much more about that game than I do.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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February 23rd, 2013 at 8:56:13 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Unless you know when the 7 is coming, turning off your place bets will not "instantly increase your overall winning per session". You will just lose more slowly since you have less money in action. Heck, for that matter you could simply withhold all of your bets and not lose any money at all..........which is probably what every craps player would be better off doing. ;)

To the OP, a popular craps strategy is to make a Pass Line bet with double odds and then one or two Come bets also with double odds. This will provide you with the lowest HA (assuming that you don't opt for 3x odds, or more).



I agree with using come bets but honestly, if it isn't max odds, you are not really making that much more than if you place a regular place bet

It is that true you don't know when the 7 is coming... But turning your bets off is a contol measure that can be used to remind a player that it's THEIR money on the table at all times....

For example, i bet hard, quick, and early. So I'll make a decent amount on a shooter, before 8-9 rolls.. I'll turn my bets off and pull them down and guys around begin to look at me, and think about dong it, but they don't. All they see is that potential long roll.. So they'll leave it up. They will have 1200 bucks across and 3 rolls AFTER I turned off, a seven comes... Sure they caught 3 more rolls but in reality they would have had an additional 600 bucks by simply taking the money off the table...

This might sound conservative, and this should not be your whole game...but I don't want to spend a whole weekend trying to do something I can do in 2-3 hours.. I'm a time guy... And I believe that minimizing your time there is the best asset a player has. I'm not just fascinatined with rolling the dice.

Alot of people on this forum are lifetime losers. They are professionals at making their observations look and sound correct.. It takes time to learn the game and I'm just a young outlier just trying to throw the guy a jewel about money management and being aware.... We all play for fun.

Im pretty sure you play alot, and you might not believe it helps.... But even You should try it as well... I truly respect your comments above
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
  • Threads: 27
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February 23rd, 2013 at 1:18:17 PM permalink
TheWolf713,

You are very smart! You have already shown a lot more knowledge in this thread about the game of Craps than almost everyone on this forum!

Don't be disillusioned by the naysayers who know nought about the game we play.

This is NOT the forum to discuss anything remotely related to playing craps a smarter way...

Respectfully,

CrapsForever
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
imaginal
imaginal
Joined: May 13, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 17
February 23rd, 2013 at 2:57:28 PM permalink
I have received discussion points from eight different Craps players so far and I want to say thanks!

Every piece of insight and advice has real merit in some way, and if applied at the right moment can certainly provide more winnings at the table.

I have scoured the internet this past year learning from all of you at one time or another. I copied great threads from different forums (Gamblers Glen anyone?) and saved them and applied strategies that I learned to my play. After all of this knowledge and accelerated Craps education I am convinced that I need to improve my betting skills and perhaps my throw to increase my chance of winning more money this year and in the future.

I can honestly say I had big losses (for me) last year by refusing to change my betting strategy in the face of the numbers being rolled right in front of me at the moment. Why did I play that way? Inexperience I guess. I have made great strides in correcting those tendencies in me and now I am getting better trying to be fluid in the moment.

This past year I played:

All even numbers nothing else no matter what and had my biggest losing session
Underfunded at the table because I didn't think I needed a bigger bankroll
Played the Darkside with a couple of successes and then lost sessions refusing to change
Played a modified FIBO on the Field and lost up to my loss limit more than once
(I love the action playing the field)

These are just a few examples to help someone understand some of my mistakes.

Please be assured I have no expectation to win every session I play.

I am enjoying sitting around the "virtual" table engaged with you all in this discussion.
"I am always doing that which I can not do, in order that I may learn how to do it." - Pablo Picasso
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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February 23rd, 2013 at 5:23:24 PM permalink
Here are some excerpts from replies you have gotten, and my responses:

"But the more you play, the less likely it is you will come out ahead. Stick to the lowest-edge bets (pass line/come+odds or don't pass/come+odds) and you will lose the least amount of money over time."

The first statement is absolutely true, assuming you play the same way. This is because the edge increases with the number of bets, but the variance (standard deviation) increases with the square root of the number of bets. The expected loss divided by the standard deviation tells you how lucky you have to be (i.e. how much positive variance you have to experience) to overcome the expected loss and break even or be ahead.

The second sentence is not necessarily true, because it says "you WILL" instead of "you EXPECT". Expect to lose; hope to win.

"I do profoundly understand that all of my bets carry a house advantage, yet I have been at tables where based on the rolls of the dice from all types of shooters a lot of money was won by the players at the table. I could have and should have won more myself but I was caught playing conservatively trying to win money back that I was down."

"But if you want a low edge to employ a system, there's nothing wrong with doing the line with no odds like I said before. Just know that it will work until it doesn't, and eventually it will fail like all systems."

"Most craps players love to star gaze over the big press strategies and old data they run through their programs.. But a program doesn't have the one thing that you have, a choice... You have the choice to place bets and after so many rolls, turn them off... How many times have you honestly look at the table and said "dam i had X amount of money. Had i pulled it off i would have been good..." do you know what that feeling is.. "

So, on the one hand, you didn't make as much money as you "should have" because you were betting conservatively. Then Wolf713 says to call off your bets sometimes and not leave money on the table when the seven hits. Of course, playing conservatively works when players are not having long rolls, and progressing your bets works on long hands; the trick is to know when to do one or the other. And, IMO, there is NO SUCH TRICK. Intuition, clairvoyance, predictive dreams have all been touted on various boards over the years.

BTW, playing the pass with no odds isn't really a "system", in my view. It has very low variance, so it is designed to keep you in the game, and it has one of the lowest house edges. It is not CERTAIN to fail eventually, because even after 5000 bets you only need to be one standard deviation to the "good" side of expectation to break even.

"To the OP, a popular craps strategy is to make a Pass Line bet with double odds and then one or two Come bets also with double odds. This will provide you with the lowest HA (assuming that you don't opt for 3x odds, or more)."

Of course, any money NOT bet on come bets, but rather on odds bets, lowers your expected loss while increasing variance.

"As to trying to address your question, you need to get the best chances at variance while keeping an eye on HE at the same time. Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds and if you in fact do *not* like experiencing the variance, dial down the odds to 3x4x5x or even 2x or so."

One idea is to start off with a pass bet and single odds, increasing the odds multiple when/if you get ahead. High variance means you can win or lose money faster.

"Variance does NOT increase your wins. Variance increases your CHANCE to win at the cost of increasing your chance to LOSE at an equal amount."

Higher variance increases the effect of luck, good and bad. If two players are betting the pass line, and one takes odds while the other doesn't, what will happen? If they come out to exactly expectation, each will lose the same amount. If they have good luck, the one taking odds will win more; if they have bad luck, the one taking odds will lose more. You can even calculate a breakeven point along the "luck axis" where one player will come out ahead of the other.

"Even the guy who follows all of the advice given by the geniuses nerds on the WOV with math that checks out with every gambling math guy in the world AND who wins thousands of dollars following that advice .. will keep playing .. and guess what? He hasn't won more money, he just had more ups and downs on his inevitable path to losses."

Here again, this is not CERTAIN at all. I agree however, that it is VERY important for a player to understand that variance cuts both ways. There is no free lunch in craps; to increase your chances of winning you have to accept the "dark side" of variance.

"I can honestly say I had big losses (for me) last year by refusing to change my betting strategy in the face of the numbers being rolled right in front of me at the moment. Why did I play that way? Inexperience I guess. I have made great strides in correcting those tendencies in me and now I am getting better trying to be fluid in the moment.

This past year I played:

All even numbers nothing else no matter what and had my biggest losing session
Underfunded at the table because I didn't think I needed a bigger bankroll
Played the Darkside with a couple of successes and then lost sessions refusing to change
Played a modified FIBO on the Field and lost up to my loss limit more than once
(I love the action playing the field)"

You need to understand that your own experiences at the table are almost meaningless as far as teaching you how to play "better". As much as you have played, ANYTHING could have happened.

Changing one's betting strategy when losing: unless you believe in DI, which I do not, the "temperature" of the table tells you nothing about the future, so there is no reason to switch, nor not to switch. Whether you're betting rightside line bets/place bets or darkside/lay bets, the next decision is totally unpredictable, so it's no different from betting even or odd numbers. (Actually, I have never heard of that in craps.)

Underfunded: the NEED for a bigger bankroll is a function of the amount of variance in your play, how long you want to play and how much you are willing to lose. Even if your bankroll is inadequate to give you a, let's say, 80% chance of playing for two hours, if your luck starts out good you can be OK.

You say you have WinCraps; do you know how to autobet? As little as your own play tells you about what you can expect, running substantial simulations tells you a lot. For example, program your modified FIBO on the Field into WinCraps and run 20,000 sessions. You will see a graph of all the net outcomes; you will find out how often you should expect to reach your loss limit, how often you should expect to double your bankroll, etc. etc. It takes the guesswork out. Trying something out in a casino and drawing conclusions from one or a few sessions is futile.

One thing is nearly certain: you will have experiences where you will say, "I could have won more if I had been more aggressive"; "I would have lost less if I had just pulled my place bets before the seven hit", etc. I am a pass/odds player, occasionally DC/odds; I rarely make other bets, so I have times when I am standing there waiting for the point to be resolved while people playing "$xx across" are raking in money; OTOH, at other times the point is made quickly, or lost and those players lose all their bets at once. I like to watch how other players bet, but I try not to be concerned about their winning/losing, just my own.

Cheers, and good luck,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
  • Threads: 20
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February 23rd, 2013 at 6:09:33 PM permalink
Gotacabin.. I appreciate you replying and totally respect your comments... Let me elaborate on what I mean when say intuition..

I use intutuiton to make it easy for players to understand. But what really lies behind it is the power of your mind. Let me explain..

When you are standing at a table watching a player throw, your mind has already asseessed the whole situation... Your eyes have observed what numbers the person set on the dice, it has noticed the distance the player is from the back wall... It has assessed if the guy might be a wimpy thrower or wild thrower and After doing a rough estimate of the probability of the dice based on the set, it has made a decision to either go with it or not... NOW HERE'S the funny part.. Now YOUR MIND has to convince you!!!! It's Already done the math, but because we have what is called ego of logic in our consciousness.. It has to take time to convince you that this is the best decision... And alll of this is going on before the dice is thrown...

If I throw a ball straight toward your face, you don't have to think about catching it.. You brain has already initiated your fight or flight system and made the decision for you.. This is the same system that will help you to make better craps decisions... It's not always right, but i promise you over time, you will see improvements.

I'm just trying to get people to get out of their own way and use instinct and intuition....Just some stuff I learned. Not trying to give some bs magic.. I just want people to understand how to make better decisions while playing....

"Timing is not everything, it's the ONLY thing."
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 1157
February 23rd, 2013 at 8:12:09 PM permalink
What makes craps such a good game is that it is the only game where you have any control over the outcome.... bj is fine if
you are an excellent card counter, however when counting cards there are a couple of things to keep in mind, casino rules
as well as deck penetration. The casino can make it hard. Also when card counting, one thing to keep in mind is that when
the count is your favor... since the dealer has a hand just like you do..... he has the same advantage in terms of getting
10 count cards.


IN craps they give you the dice and you throw them.... now i know there are tables you cant get an advantage on..... a 16 table
is truly hard, a very bouncy table is hard..... but i fyou look you can find decent tables...... now think.... if a guy picks up the dice
and flings them down the table they hit and run all the way back to him and he gets a result...... a good dicesitter throws a very soft
roll with 2-3 revolutions, they hit the table. up to the wall and then die within 6-8 inches... now those throws are not equal, and if you
think about it, it has to make sense that throwing the same throw thousands and thousands of times, leads to muscle memory, just
like the bowling shot , or casting a fishing lure to a spot 1 foot from the weeds time after time.....it is practice

Pick up a pair of dice.... set them with 5's on tops and 4 facing back at you..... hardway set...... one quarter roll from perfect is a
5/4 or 5/3 ....both of which you see alot....any 55, 44, 33,22 is a perfect roll in that both dice did the same thing..... the 7 you will
see most often from a dicesitter is 3/4 4/3 that means each dice was 1/4 turn off perfect.... with the hardway set if one of the
dice goes off access.... that is a 1 or 6 you cant make a 7....

NOw to the demonstrate dice influence........ take the dice in front of you and place 3 on top and 5 at you on the left die, and 3 on
top and 1 at you on the right side.... the 3/v set.... notice what changes..... 1/4 turn on 1 die and you have a 3-1 or 3/6 or2/3 or 5/3
if your dice are perfect you will have a 33, 51,2/6, 44..... i get many 2-6 1-5 or 3-1... completed different result than a hardway set.

If dice control were not possible, it would not matter what set you had , it would all be random, you would never see the trends
in the number you throw bepending on the set you start with.

When i am on, i use the 3v because it gives me a highest percentage of 6 , 8's and i feel good about placing the 4.

I have a friend that is very good and when he is on many times he will use the 3v and all the bets is a very high bet on the 6, .

I have been taught by the best people in the country.....anyone can learn, but it takes a fairly large investment $5000-$6000
and hundreds of hours....then after all that you still have to stop being a gambler, and become a craps player.

Most of my friends think i am out of my frickin mind.....that thought has also crossed my mind...

But the feeling you have when you hit the table and you know you have an advantage is cool.


Dicesitter
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
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February 23rd, 2013 at 8:28:36 PM permalink
I hear what you are saying and I know what you mean. How many times have we "felt one coming" and sure enough, there it is. There is a "funny feeling" or an "I thought so", that's not what we're talking about here. There are things which we can't prove which are true none the less.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 92
  • Posts: 3415
February 23rd, 2013 at 8:50:58 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

What makes craps such a good game is that it is the only game where you have any control over the outcome....

IN craps they give you the dice and you throw them....



and this is why everyone should TRY to influence or control the dice. It doesn't mean you can, but the game is designed so you can try everything that goes into a legal throw.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 315
February 23rd, 2013 at 10:12:15 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

I hear what you are saying and I know what you mean. How many times have we "felt one coming" and sure enough, there it is. There is a "funny feeling" or an "I thought so", that's not what we're talking about here. There are things which we can't prove which are true none the less.




Okay the best craps betting strategy is... Not having a set strategy..... It's not Blackjack... you won't get two 8s and know to split.. It's going to be roll to roll... The last roll is history, the next is a mystery... And the only choice you have lies between some jack ass holding up the table with a dollar YO bet and your 700 bucks on the table... Making a quick decision is better than a well thought out one in this game.... So be quick or the next words will seal the fate... NO BETS DICE OUT!!!!

As far as shooting...
You can TRY keyword "TRY" to DI , but if you don't treat yourself like a random shooter, you'll spend the entire day chasing your money...
When betting on other shooters, just remember this.... There are only good shooters and bad shooters... For every 1 DI there are a 1000 wannabes who know all the sets and mechanics standing right by the stick man like the YouTube videos shows them... They might as well work for the casino, because they are going to try to work your bankroll and your mind..It will look like a duck, sound like a duck, and be a got dam Sasquatch!!!

The only Ally you have in the casino are your car keys.. And the quicker you are able to use them, the better..
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain

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