Craps betting strategies

I am looking this year and beyond to do one thing: win more money playing craps.

I started playing craps New Years Eve 2011. I won $286 betting the 4, 6, 8 and 10 that night. For last year though... I ended down for the year $5K.

I want to become a much better craps player.

I purchased a copy of WinCraps a year ago and have logged a couple hundred hours teaching myself how to make sense of the game.

I primarily play in the two Indian casinos here in CT where I live. I did make three trips down south last year and played multiple sessions in casinos from Louisiana to Mississippi.


What I want to do is learn to throw the dice in a much more controlled manner and combine that with improving my betting strategies.

Thanks for your help and insight!

Quote: imaginal

I am looking this year and beyond to do one thing: win more money playing craps.

I started playing craps New Years Eve 2011. I won $286 betting the 4, 6, 8 and 10 that night. For last year though... I ended down for the year $5K.

I want to become a much better craps player.

I purchased a copy of WinCraps a year ago and have logged a couple hundred hours teaching myself how to make sense of the game.

I primarily play in the two Indian casinos here in CT where I live. I did make three trips down south last year and played multiple sessions in casinos from Louisiana to Mississippi.

I have some bad news for you: it doesn't matter what bets you make, they all carry a house advantage*. On New Years Eve you bucked the edge with variance, which is how they hook you and keep you coming back. But the more you play, the less likely it is you will come out ahead. Stick to the lowest-edge bets (pass line/come+odds or don't pass/come+odds) and you will lose the least amount of money over time. Unless...

Quote:

What I want to do is learn to throw the dice in a much more controlled manner and combine that with improving my betting strategies.

Dice controlling, if possible, is the only legal way to win money at craps over the long term. Good luck with that. Most of the people on this board don't believe it is possible.

*EDITED TO ADD: of course the odds behind line bets don't carry a house advantage, as everyone knows. But you must place a line bet at a disadvantage to earn the privilege to place these bets. The net result is that the house always has the best of it, as it goes in casino games.

You are absolutely right...I am hooked!

Craps is a very exciting game to play. I am a very competitive man by nature so I want to manage my bankroll and put myself in the best position possible to win.

I do profoundly understand that all of my bets carry a house advantage, yet I have been at tables where based on the rolls of the dice from all types of shooters a lot of money was won by the players at the table. I could have and should have won more myself but I was caught playing conservatively trying to win money back that I was down.

I appreciate your help and advice.

AcesAndEights is right. If you want to get serious about actually making money, Craps is not your game! Blackjack or Video Poker I think are the way to go.

If you want to enjoy your play time and not lose very much money as a ratio of your action on the felt, craps is where it's at.

I'm trying very hard to prove that AP is possible.

Speaking for myself, even if I have a roll that could be exploited, OH MY GOD it would be boring!

Gamble and have fun, and if you want to win money or make money, don't gamble.

If you INSIST on making money gambling (more like a job than having fun) try VP or BJ.

Even the best AP players on BJ and VP would probably admit craps is more fun for the average player than the game that they exploit for their own edge.

But if you want a low edge to employ a system, there's nothing wrong with doing the line with no odds like I said before. Just know that it will work until it doesn't, and eventually it will fail like all systems.

Ahigh,

Thanks for your advice. To add some clarity; I don't need gambling to make money, but your point is well taken.

Gambling to live or living to gamble is not where I am at.

I have experienced some winning sessions and losing sessions at craps... I just want to be a better craps player. I understand the HA will always be my opponent but that is OK... I have no intention of suffering gamblers ruin. I am down $5K at the moment but I was even in August after playing a lot over an 8 month period.

Your advice to play the 4 and 10 for $25 each is a great example that is based on math to at least give me a chance. That is a start and I will implement that strategy right away and begin to look to see how I can build on that.

I tried playing VP and it is not for me. Blackjack is not on my radar right now either.

Thanks again,

I respect your posts and your insight into the game.

Quote: imaginal

Ahigh,

Thanks for your advice. To add some clarity; I don't need gambling to make money, but your point is well taken.

Gambling to live or living to gamble is not where I am at.

I have experienced some winning sessions and losing sessions at craps... I just want to be a better craps player. I understand the HA will always be my opponent but that is OK... I have no intention of suffering gamblers ruin. I am down $5K at the moment but I was even in August after playing a lot over an 8 month period.

Your advice to play the 4 and 10 for $25 each is a great example that is based on math to at least give me a chance. That is a start and I will implement that strategy right away and begin to look to see how I can build on that.

I tried playing VP and it is not for me. Blackjack is not on my radar right now either.

Thanks again,

I respect your posts and your insight into the game.

Hey might not have any rain man math tactics, but I will give you one of the simplest ways to instantly increase your overall winning per session.. Its straight forward, and you already know it... Here it goes... Learn to turn your bets off more frequently.. It's not a popular habit, but it is an effective habit..

Most craps players love to star gaze over the big press strategies and old data they run through their programs.. But a program doesn't have the one thing that you have, a choice... You have the choice to place bets and after so many rolls, turn them off... How many times have you honestly look at the table and said "dam i had X amount of money. Had i pulled it off i would have been good..." do you know what that feeling is.. Its intuition.... Its apart of your play. Use it. Its the most under-used cognitive feature of your mind on a craps table... It makes you react quicker...but logic causes you to waste time think about a decision that you've technically already made...if you want want to win, try it out. But if you're sitting around trying to be a math wiz and you know dam well you barely made it out of calculus and statistics by the skin of you chin, you will continue to lose... Play in the now... Every casino doesn't have a 30 roll guy coming through every day... They have these 5 to 6 roll chumps and PSO kings.
Play the table. You'll get better with time but you need to start somewhere. And I believe that recognizing that all of those place bets is YOUR MONEY until the seven comes, is. a good place to start. Learn to turn them off. Use Spatial awareness

Unless you kn

Quote: Ahigh

I'm trying very hard to prove that AP is possible.

Ahigh my friend, it is possible. What you should be saying is that you are trying to do it -- control or influence the dice. That would be more accurate.

To the original poster -- craps as it is played is an unbeatable game unless two things happen:

1. you get very lucky
2. you somehow are able to influence or control the dice

If you practice throwing a controlled throw on your bed at home, I PROMISE YOU that you will lose less money during that time than if you were trying your controlled throw at a casino.

What I've started doing is playing pass, then after a point is established I play a come( no odds yet on the pass). You want get rich playing conservative like this but you will be surprised how many times that come bet saves you when the next roll is a seven out. If the next roll is a different number then i evaluate which of my 2 are better to put odds on. I tend to turn my odds off at random times as well as immediately following the dice going off the table. Basically I am playing for the table excitement and free drinks, so my goal is longevity with minimum losses.

Quote: imaginal

I am looking this year and beyond to do one thing: win more money playing craps.

IMO this is the wrong goal to have; earning enough, saving enough. investing correctly, keeping control of yourself along with maintaining and enjoying the support of your spouse and family so that you have such a sufficient bankroll, with family support, for your recreation that the ups and downs won't matter.

This is the right goal for Craps play if I may be so flattered as to think anyone cares for my opinion. [a bunch of stuff deleted here] I think I will blog about this instead of hijacking the thread. You've got me going!

As to trying to address your question, you need to get the best chances at variance while keeping an eye on HE at the same time. Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds and if you in fact do *not* like experiencing the variance, dial down the odds to 3x4x5x or even 2x or so. You want the HE less than one percent. Beyond that, it is just luck, so good luck to you!

Quote: odiousgambit

IMO this is the wrong goal to have; earning enough, saving enough. investing correctly, keeping control of yourself along with maintaining and enjoying the support of your spouse and family so that you have such a sufficient bankroll, with family support, for your recreation that the ups and downs won't matter.

This is the right goal for Craps play if I may be so flattered as to think anyone cares for my opinion. [a bunch of stuff deleted here] I think I will blog about this instead of hijacking the thread. You've got me going!

As to trying to address your question, you need to get the best chances at variance while keeping an eye on HE at the same time. Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds and if you in fact do *not* like experiencing the variance, dial down the odds to 3x4x5x or even 2x or so. You want the HE less than one percent. Beyond that, it is just luck, so good luck to you!

I will add to this that I fall outside of the norm when it comes to asking variance to come along to your party to increase your wins.

Variance does NOT increase your wins. Variance increases your CHANCE to win at the cost of increasing your chance to LOSE at an equal amount.

When people get on this forum and they start following the advice about minimizing the edge by asking variance to come over to the party, they often have no concept of what variance is until they have lost.

Then they get back on the forum and say, "I LOST WHAT DID I DO WRONG."

And the answer is, "YOU WANTED A CHANCE TO WIN, RIGHT? YOU LOST!"

Listen, even if you have no shot at all to win from profits at the table, there is value to much more than winning a few chips from a few bets.

1) Free drinks
2) Comps
3) Socializing with people that might be above your normal social circles (not at the 10x and 20x tables, but at the 3x4x5x tables usually)

There are a lot of factors to going out and feeling like a winner. And winning at the tables is just one of many factors to consider when you want to feel like a successful person who happens to play craps.

Even the guy who follows all of the advice given by the geniuses nerds on the WOV with math that checks out with every gambling math guy in the world AND who wins thousands of dollars following that advice .. will keep playing .. and guess what? He hasn't won more money, he just had more ups and downs on his inevitable path to losses.

If you stick with low variance play and you enjoy the other things that are a win ... like going out and having a great time and winning a LITTLE BIT of money and coming home no poorer than when you left, you might find you can be a winner more OFTEN by employing strategies with LESS VARIANCE.

Stomaching the ups and downs is absolutely the profession of financial geniuses, but if you're just starting out, don't blindly take the advice of math guys who fancy themselves knowledgeable who have less playing experience than Ahigh has.

Low variance can be a good thing for a new guy.

And trust me, if you put $100 on the pass line for your first bet and you take no odds, some guys/dealers/whoever might .. and I mean MIGHT say "save it for your odds buddy" if you happen to have a four roll on the comeout.

But when the yo rolls on the comeout, YOU can be jumping up and down and saying, "awwww, what happened math genius?" And then say "COLOR" and leave.

It's a game, and treat it as such. The difference between 1.41% and ANYTHING lower in an edge takes thousands of events to matter. Enjoy your 20 to 500 events with any edge between 1.41% and 0.00% with a full knowledge of the variance that can take you down JUST AS EASILY as it can take you up.

IE: bold play works even better if you want to win, and free bets require that you bet MORE THAN ONCE.

One more statement: the best way to be a lifetime winner at ANY game in ANY casino is to bold play the game for a single event and never play the game again. I am a lifetime winner at blackjack because I played for one hand on a $50 coupon and I won. If I enjoyed playing that game, I would be much less likely to be beating the pants off many other people who know much more about that game than I do.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Unless you know when the 7 is coming, turning off your place bets will not "instantly increase your overall winning per session". You will just lose more slowly since you have less money in action. Heck, for that matter you could simply withhold all of your bets and not lose any money at all..........which is probably what every craps player would be better off doing. ;)

To the OP, a popular craps strategy is to make a Pass Line bet with double odds and then one or two Come bets also with double odds. This will provide you with the lowest HA (assuming that you don't opt for 3x odds, or more).

I agree with using come bets but honestly, if it isn't max odds, you are not really making that much more than if you place a regular place bet

It is that true you don't know when the 7 is coming... But turning your bets off is a contol measure that can be used to remind a player that it's THEIR money on the table at all times....

For example, i bet hard, quick, and early. So I'll make a decent amount on a shooter, before 8-9 rolls.. I'll turn my bets off and pull them down and guys around begin to look at me, and think about dong it, but they don't. All they see is that potential long roll.. So they'll leave it up. They will have 1200 bucks across and 3 rolls AFTER I turned off, a seven comes... Sure they caught 3 more rolls but in reality they would have had an additional 600 bucks by simply taking the money off the table...

This might sound conservative, and this should not be your whole game...but I don't want to spend a whole weekend trying to do something I can do in 2-3 hours.. I'm a time guy... And I believe that minimizing your time there is the best asset a player has. I'm not just fascinatined with rolling the dice.

Alot of people on this forum are lifetime losers. They are professionals at making their observations look and sound correct.. It takes time to learn the game and I'm just a young outlier just trying to throw the guy a jewel about money management and being aware.... We all play for fun.

Im pretty sure you play alot, and you might not believe it helps.... But even You should try it as well... I truly respect your comments above

TheWolf713,

You are very smart! You have already shown a lot more knowledge in this thread about the game of Craps than almost everyone on this forum!

Don't be disillusioned by the naysayers who know nought about the game we play.

This is NOT the forum to discuss anything remotely related to playing craps a smarter way...

Respectfully,

CrapsForever

I have received discussion points from eight different Craps players so far and I want to say thanks!

Every piece of insight and advice has real merit in some way, and if applied at the right moment can certainly provide more winnings at the table.

I have scoured the internet this past year learning from all of you at one time or another. I copied great threads from different forums (Gamblers Glen anyone?) and saved them and applied strategies that I learned to my play. After all of this knowledge and accelerated Craps education I am convinced that I need to improve my betting skills and perhaps my throw to increase my chance of winning more money this year and in the future.

I can honestly say I had big losses (for me) last year by refusing to change my betting strategy in the face of the numbers being rolled right in front of me at the moment. Why did I play that way? Inexperience I guess. I have made great strides in correcting those tendencies in me and now I am getting better trying to be fluid in the moment.

This past year I played:

All even numbers nothing else no matter what and had my biggest losing session
Underfunded at the table because I didn't think I needed a bigger bankroll
Played the Darkside with a couple of successes and then lost sessions refusing to change
Played a modified FIBO on the Field and lost up to my loss limit more than once
(I love the action playing the field)

These are just a few examples to help someone understand some of my mistakes.

Please be assured I have no expectation to win every session I play.

I am enjoying sitting around the "virtual" table engaged with you all in this discussion.

Here are some excerpts from replies you have gotten, and my responses:

"But the more you play, the less likely it is you will come out ahead. Stick to the lowest-edge bets (pass line/come+odds or don't pass/come+odds) and you will lose the least amount of money over time."

The first statement is absolutely true, assuming you play the same way. This is because the edge increases with the number of bets, but the variance (standard deviation) increases with the square root of the number of bets. The expected loss divided by the standard deviation tells you how lucky you have to be (i.e. how much positive variance you have to experience) to overcome the expected loss and break even or be ahead.

The second sentence is not necessarily true, because it says "you WILL" instead of "you EXPECT". Expect to lose; hope to win.

"I do profoundly understand that all of my bets carry a house advantage, yet I have been at tables where based on the rolls of the dice from all types of shooters a lot of money was won by the players at the table. I could have and should have won more myself but I was caught playing conservatively trying to win money back that I was down."

"But if you want a low edge to employ a system, there's nothing wrong with doing the line with no odds like I said before. Just know that it will work until it doesn't, and eventually it will fail like all systems."

"Most craps players love to star gaze over the big press strategies and old data they run through their programs.. But a program doesn't have the one thing that you have, a choice... You have the choice to place bets and after so many rolls, turn them off... How many times have you honestly look at the table and said "dam i had X amount of money. Had i pulled it off i would have been good..." do you know what that feeling is.. "

So, on the one hand, you didn't make as much money as you "should have" because you were betting conservatively. Then Wolf713 says to call off your bets sometimes and not leave money on the table when the seven hits. Of course, playing conservatively works when players are not having long rolls, and progressing your bets works on long hands; the trick is to know when to do one or the other. And, IMO, there is NO SUCH TRICK. Intuition, clairvoyance, predictive dreams have all been touted on various boards over the years.

BTW, playing the pass with no odds isn't really a "system", in my view. It has very low variance, so it is designed to keep you in the game, and it has one of the lowest house edges. It is not CERTAIN to fail eventually, because even after 5000 bets you only need to be one standard deviation to the "good" side of expectation to break even.

"To the OP, a popular craps strategy is to make a Pass Line bet with double odds and then one or two Come bets also with double odds. This will provide you with the lowest HA (assuming that you don't opt for 3x odds, or more)."

Of course, any money NOT bet on come bets, but rather on odds bets, lowers your expected loss while increasing variance.

"As to trying to address your question, you need to get the best chances at variance while keeping an eye on HE at the same time. Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds and if you in fact do *not* like experiencing the variance, dial down the odds to 3x4x5x or even 2x or so."

One idea is to start off with a pass bet and single odds, increasing the odds multiple when/if you get ahead. High variance means you can win or lose money faster.

"Variance does NOT increase your wins. Variance increases your CHANCE to win at the cost of increasing your chance to LOSE at an equal amount."

Higher variance increases the effect of luck, good and bad. If two players are betting the pass line, and one takes odds while the other doesn't, what will happen? If they come out to exactly expectation, each will lose the same amount. If they have good luck, the one taking odds will win more; if they have bad luck, the one taking odds will lose more. You can even calculate a breakeven point along the "luck axis" where one player will come out ahead of the other.

"Even the guy who follows all of the advice given by the geniuses nerds on the WOV with math that checks out with every gambling math guy in the world AND who wins thousands of dollars following that advice .. will keep playing .. and guess what? He hasn't won more money, he just had more ups and downs on his inevitable path to losses."

Here again, this is not CERTAIN at all. I agree however, that it is VERY important for a player to understand that variance cuts both ways. There is no free lunch in craps; to increase your chances of winning you have to accept the "dark side" of variance.

"I can honestly say I had big losses (for me) last year by refusing to change my betting strategy in the face of the numbers being rolled right in front of me at the moment. Why did I play that way? Inexperience I guess. I have made great strides in correcting those tendencies in me and now I am getting better trying to be fluid in the moment.

This past year I played:

All even numbers nothing else no matter what and had my biggest losing session
Underfunded at the table because I didn't think I needed a bigger bankroll
Played the Darkside with a couple of successes and then lost sessions refusing to change
Played a modified FIBO on the Field and lost up to my loss limit more than once
(I love the action playing the field)"

You need to understand that your own experiences at the table are almost meaningless as far as teaching you how to play "better". As much as you have played, ANYTHING could have happened.

Changing one's betting strategy when losing: unless you believe in DI, which I do not, the "temperature" of the table tells you nothing about the future, so there is no reason to switch, nor not to switch. Whether you're betting rightside line bets/place bets or darkside/lay bets, the next decision is totally unpredictable, so it's no different from betting even or odd numbers. (Actually, I have never heard of that in craps.)

Underfunded: the NEED for a bigger bankroll is a function of the amount of variance in your play, how long you want to play and how much you are willing to lose. Even if your bankroll is inadequate to give you a, let's say, 80% chance of playing for two hours, if your luck starts out good you can be OK.

You say you have WinCraps; do you know how to autobet? As little as your own play tells you about what you can expect, running substantial simulations tells you a lot. For example, program your modified FIBO on the Field into WinCraps and run 20,000 sessions. You will see a graph of all the net outcomes; you will find out how often you should expect to reach your loss limit, how often you should expect to double your bankroll, etc. etc. It takes the guesswork out. Trying something out in a casino and drawing conclusions from one or a few sessions is futile.

One thing is nearly certain: you will have experiences where you will say, "I could have won more if I had been more aggressive"; "I would have lost less if I had just pulled my place bets before the seven hit", etc. I am a pass/odds player, occasionally DC/odds; I rarely make other bets, so I have times when I am standing there waiting for the point to be resolved while people playing "$xx across" are raking in money; OTOH, at other times the point is made quickly, or lost and those players lose all their bets at once. I like to watch how other players bet, but I try not to be concerned about their winning/losing, just my own.

Cheers, and good luck,
Alan Shank

Gotacabin.. I appreciate you replying and totally respect your comments... Let me elaborate on what I mean when say intuition..

I use intutuiton to make it easy for players to understand. But what really lies behind it is the power of your mind. Let me explain..

When you are standing at a table watching a player throw, your mind has already asseessed the whole situation... Your eyes have observed what numbers the person set on the dice, it has noticed the distance the player is from the back wall... It has assessed if the guy might be a wimpy thrower or wild thrower and After doing a rough estimate of the probability of the dice based on the set, it has made a decision to either go with it or not... NOW HERE'S the funny part.. Now YOUR MIND has to convince you!!!! It's Already done the math, but because we have what is called ego of logic in our consciousness.. It has to take time to convince you that this is the best decision... And alll of this is going on before the dice is thrown...

If I throw a ball straight toward your face, you don't have to think about catching it.. You brain has already initiated your fight or flight system and made the decision for you.. This is the same system that will help you to make better craps decisions... It's not always right, but i promise you over time, you will see improvements.

I'm just trying to get people to get out of their own way and use instinct and intuition....Just some stuff I learned. Not trying to give some bs magic.. I just want people to understand how to make better decisions while playing....

"Timing is not everything, it's the ONLY thing."

What makes craps such a good game is that it is the only game where you have any control over the outcome.... bj is fine if
you are an excellent card counter, however when counting cards there are a couple of things to keep in mind, casino rules
as well as deck penetration. The casino can make it hard. Also when card counting, one thing to keep in mind is that when
the count is your favor... since the dealer has a hand just like you do..... he has the same advantage in terms of getting
10 count cards.


IN craps they give you the dice and you throw them.... now i know there are tables you cant get an advantage on..... a 16 table
is truly hard, a very bouncy table is hard..... but i fyou look you can find decent tables...... now think.... if a guy picks up the dice
and flings them down the table they hit and run all the way back to him and he gets a result...... a good dicesitter throws a very soft
roll with 2-3 revolutions, they hit the table. up to the wall and then die within 6-8 inches... now those throws are not equal, and if you
think about it, it has to make sense that throwing the same throw thousands and thousands of times, leads to muscle memory, just
like the bowling shot , or casting a fishing lure to a spot 1 foot from the weeds time after time.....it is practice

Pick up a pair of dice.... set them with 5's on tops and 4 facing back at you..... hardway set...... one quarter roll from perfect is a
5/4 or 5/3 ....both of which you see alot....any 55, 44, 33,22 is a perfect roll in that both dice did the same thing..... the 7 you will
see most often from a dicesitter is 3/4 4/3 that means each dice was 1/4 turn off perfect.... with the hardway set if one of the
dice goes off access.... that is a 1 or 6 you cant make a 7....

NOw to the demonstrate dice influence........ take the dice in front of you and place 3 on top and 5 at you on the left die, and 3 on
top and 1 at you on the right side.... the 3/v set.... notice what changes..... 1/4 turn on 1 die and you have a 3-1 or 3/6 or2/3 or 5/3
if your dice are perfect you will have a 33, 51,2/6, 44..... i get many 2-6 1-5 or 3-1... completed different result than a hardway set.

If dice control were not possible, it would not matter what set you had , it would all be random, you would never see the trends
in the number you throw bepending on the set you start with.

When i am on, i use the 3v because it gives me a highest percentage of 6 , 8's and i feel good about placing the 4.

I have a friend that is very good and when he is on many times he will use the 3v and all the bets is a very high bet on the 6, .

I have been taught by the best people in the country.....anyone can learn, but it takes a fairly large investment $5000-$6000
and hundreds of hours....then after all that you still have to stop being a gambler, and become a craps player.

Most of my friends think i am out of my frickin mind.....that thought has also crossed my mind...

But the feeling you have when you hit the table and you know you have an advantage is cool.


Dicesitter

I hear what you are saying and I know what you mean. How many times have we "felt one coming" and sure enough, there it is. There is a "funny feeling" or an "I thought so", that's not what we're talking about here. There are things which we can't prove which are true none the less.

Quote: dicesitter

What makes craps such a good game is that it is the only game where you have any control over the outcome....

IN craps they give you the dice and you throw them....

and this is why everyone should TRY to influence or control the dice. It doesn't mean you can, but the game is designed so you can try everything that goes into a legal throw.

Quote: petroglyph

I hear what you are saying and I know what you mean. How many times have we "felt one coming" and sure enough, there it is. There is a "funny feeling" or an "I thought so", that's not what we're talking about here. There are things which we can't prove which are true none the less.

Okay the best craps betting strategy is... Not having a set strategy..... It's not Blackjack... you won't get two 8s and know to split.. It's going to be roll to roll... The last roll is history, the next is a mystery... And the only choice you have lies between some jack ass holding up the table with a dollar YO bet and your 700 bucks on the table... Making a quick decision is better than a well thought out one in this game.... So be quick or the next words will seal the fate... NO BETS DICE OUT!!!!

As far as shooting...
You can TRY keyword "TRY" to DI , but if you don't treat yourself like a random shooter, you'll spend the entire day chasing your money...
When betting on other shooters, just remember this.... There are only good shooters and bad shooters... For every 1 DI there are a 1000 wannabes who know all the sets and mechanics standing right by the stick man like the YouTube videos shows them... They might as well work for the casino, because they are going to try to work your bankroll and your mind..It will look like a duck, sound like a duck, and be a got dam Sasquatch!!!

The only Ally you have in the casino are your car keys.. And the quicker you are able to use them, the better..

Excellant words wolf! Players and base dealers easily get lulled into complacency on place bets. Like the buy and hold forever strategy with stocks. The dealers are bored often and like to strike up a conversation with one or more players, after all it's not their money at risk. The time factor of the dice at rest in the prop area changes as we all know from a minute down to just a few seconds, Dice are out "they roll". I like to tell the base dealer to take me off or down just so they know I will and keep their head in the game. I don't mind missing a pay or two because of a change [dice down, chip fill etc.], greed kills as does inattention to the ebb and flow.

Well put on the 1000 wannabe's, that ratio sounds about right. I've wondered if some of dice shooter teacher's might just be working for a casino, what better way to draw new blood to the rails. Nothing like a true believer, buy in after buy in just trying to get their range right or adjust to the bounciness of the table. Meahwhile the security behind the bubble cams are laughing so hard their in danger of a coronary.

Quote: petroglyph

Excellant words wolf! Players and base dealers easily get lulled into complacency on place bets. Like the buy and hold forever strategy with stocks. The dealers are bored often and like to strike up a conversation with one or more players, after all it's not their money at risk. The time factor of the dice at rest in the prop area changes as we all know from a minute down to just a few seconds, Dice are out "they roll". I like to tell the base dealer to take me off or down just so they know I will and keep their head in the game. I don't mind missing a pay or two because of a change [dice down, chip fill etc.], greed kills as does inattention to the ebb and flow.

Well put on the 1000 wannabe's, that ratio sounds about right. I've wondered if some of dice shooter teacher's might just be working for a casino, what better way to draw new blood to the rails. Nothing like a true believer, buy in after buy in just trying to get their range right or adjust to the bounciness of the table. Meahwhile the security behind the bubble cams are laughing so hard their in danger of a coronary.

Exactly the perfect perception of a DI is the biggest deception... You see them set, you hear 6, 8, 5, hard six and you are immediately sucked in because math guys tell you those numbers have the most combos and DI guys tell you he's 'on axis' .... The casino absolutely loves these guys. There's nothing like false hope hiding behind mathematical Data. It will always sell.. No disrespect to those gentlemen...

Thanks everyone for your sincere generosity!

I have more questions, answer if you want to:

Aces and Eights "Stick to the lowest-edge bets (pass line/come+odds or don't pass/come+odds)"

------------------How do you decide when to play the do or don't?


odiousgambit "Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds"

-----------------Always? No other bets ever? If you add other bets...why?


TheWolf713 "Play the table. You'll get better with time but you need to start somewhere. And I believe that recognizing that all of those place bets is YOUR MONEY until the seven comes, is. a good place to start. Learn to turn them off. Use Spatial awareness"

--------------------Big problem of mine! I try to win and when I get my initial bets back in my rack I say "OK now I am playing with Casino money".


TheWolf713 "This might sound conservative, and this should not be your whole game...but I don't want to spend a whole weekend trying to do something I can do in 2-3 hours.. I'm a time guy... And I believe that minimizing your time there is the best asset a player has. I'm not just fascinated with rolling the dice."

----------------------I try to have two to three hour sessions max. Sometimes I leave the Casino down for the session instead of playing more.

TheWolf713 "I'm just trying to get people to get out of their own way and use instinct and intuition"

--------------------I use instinct but I need to do a much better job of developing Craps instinct.


TheWolf713 Okay the best craps betting strategy is... Not having a set strategy..... It's not Blackjack... you won't get two 8s and know to split.. It's going to be roll to roll... The last roll is history, the next is a mystery...

--------------------when you walk up to the table how do you assess what your first bet will be? How do wins and losses on hands\shooters determine the way to bet?


Beethoven9th "a popular craps strategy is to make a Pass Line bet with double odds and then one or two Come bets also with double odds. This will provide you with the lowest HA (assuming that you don't opt for 3x odds, or more)."

-----------------you are right this is definitely a popular strategy, how do you play?

AlanMendelson "craps as it is played is an unbeatable game unless two things happen:

1. you get very lucky
2. you somehow are able to influence or control the dice

---------------------I know you apply some sort of control to the dice when you throw, You have written that it "can't hurt". Any noteworthy results of you doing this?


CrapsForever "This is NOT the forum to discuss anything remotely related to playing craps a smarter way..."

-----------------------I am committed to playing craps in a smarter way can you provide insight to point me in the right direction?

Alan Shank "I am a pass/odds player, occasionally DC/odds; I rarely make other bets"

------------------------How do you decide which way to play that session? If things aren't going your way do you make any changes? Do you leave the Casino and wait for another day?

dicesitter "then after all that you still have to stop being a gambler, and become a craps player"

--------------------------I can only hope that I can accomplish just that.


petroglyph "There are things which we can't prove which are true none the less"

---------------------I too agree and believe this. How does this (or not) apply to your Craps playing?

Thanks everyone for participating and trying to help. Hopefully others can benefit from our discussion.

Quote: goatcabin

You say you have WinCraps; do you know how to autobet? As little as your own play tells you about what you can expect, running substantial simulations tells you a lot. For example, program your modified FIBO on the Field into WinCraps and run 20,000 sessions. You will see a graph of all the net outcomes; you will find out how often you should expect to reach your loss limit, how often you should expect to double your bankroll, etc. etc. It takes the guesswork out. Trying something out in a casino and drawing conclusions from one or a few sessions is futile.


Alan Shank

Alan,

Thank you for your response to my post.

The way I use WinCraps is as if I am playing in the Casino. I will test different Craps bets on 30, 50, 75, 100 and 200 rolls to simulate real play as close as I can. I have put together dozens of Word documents of betting strategies that I have developed based off of a lot of historical craps information on the internet. I probably haven't used the Autobet feature because of this. I probably need to utilize this tool going forward...thanks again.

Quote: imaginal

Alan Shank "I am a pass/odds player, occasionally DC/odds; I rarely make other bets"

------------------------How do you decide which way to play that session? If things aren't going your way do you make any changes? Do you leave the Casino and wait for another day?

I head to the casino with an idea of how I'm going to play. I do not change my strategy based on what is going on, because there is no reason to do so. What has happened tells you nothing about what will happen. If you switch to the "other" side, it may work or it may not; you cannot know. As far as DI goes, most of my play over the past few years has been in California, where they have to use cards to give the final result, although dice are used to "point" to the cards, so even if you could perfectly control the dice, it wouldn't do you any good.

I generally buy in for $200, and I am prepared to lose it all, but I never go to the ATM for more. I may have an amount in mind that would cause me to stop short of my usual two-hour session. However, I never quit after a win. If I reach my win goal, I will set aside my initial stake and most of the winnings and continue to play with the rest (the new "stake") until I reach the next goal or lose the new stake. I actually have written a computer program algorithm for this that I use in some of my simulations.

Here's a typical betting strategy that I might use, either for pass or Don't Come betting:

start $200
when bankroll is between 150 and 250, take/lay single odds
when bankroll is 250+ or <150, take/lay double odds
when bankroll is 300+ or <100, take/lay 3, 4, 5X odds

Of course, this can backfire on you, but it is designed to take advantage of a good roll or to allow you to recoup prior losses more quickly. Of course, this would called "chasing losses" by "The Dice Doctor", but I am perfectly willing to do so, up to my $200 stake.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Everyone here seems to be talking about pass line or placing numbers. As a long time gambler with spotty success(like the rest of us!) I have found the only consistent way over time to make money in craps is to become a wrong way bettor. You are betting with the house and hoping for the 7 - the exact same thing everyone is fearing -yet everyone knows will come around sooner or later. There's a reason the house pays you poor odds. Because it hits more. Believe me. I have gotten absolutely hammered playing the wrong way at a hot table so stubbornness is not a plus here it is a hinderance. But at a cold table betting the don't pass with full odds along with a don't come every roll, that is optimal strategy for a shooter that hits a few numbers and then sevens out. Sure you're the grinch of the table but who cares. You're here to take the houses' money and to try and beat the odds a little. I have converted dozens of right way craps players once they see me cover all of the numbers and then a 7 hits. I go from o chips in my rack to virtually full!
Thoughts?

Quote: Ericcraps

You are betting with the house and hoping for the 7 - the exact same thing everyone is fearing -yet everyone knows will come around sooner or later.

Betting don't in no shape, manner of form is "betting with the house." Don't bettors have virtually the same 1.+ percent edge against them. Any don't player who thinks that is seriously misguided.

Quote: imaginal

Alan,

Thank you for your response to my post.

The way I use WinCraps is as if I am playing in the Casino. I will test different Craps bets on 30, 50, 75, 100 and 200 rolls to simulate real play as close as I can. I have put together dozens of Word documents of betting strategies that I have developed based off of a lot of historical craps information on the internet. I probably haven't used the Autobet feature because of this. I probably need to utilize this tool going forward...thanks again.

Of course, using WinCraps that way is fun and, to a certain extent, educational, but you are utilizing only a tiny fraction of its capabilities. I cannot emphasize enough the futility of drawing any conclusions from your own playing experience, whether in the casino or on WinCraps. BTW, WinCraps Pro is coming soon, and the AutoBet engine is vastly improved, using plain text files that are very easy to share. I would be glad to provide you with some AutoBet files for 5.1, but they are much more difficult to modify than the new ones. Of course, it helps to know something about programming in either case.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote:

odiousgambit "Playing the line bets with odds is the way to go. Max the odds"

-----------------Always? No other bets ever? If you add other bets...why?

Note that my opinion is to get the HE below 1%, you may not need to max the odds [see full previous]. The only other bets I consider are placing the 6 and 8 when a shooter just can't do anything wrong and I want as many bets going as possible, and the 6 or 8 isnt covered. Even that is rare, it's $30 placed when I do. The odd $1 chips I might use up at the end of the session trying to lucky on a Yo bet. That really is it!

Quote: imaginal

TheWolf713 "Play the table. You'll get better with time but you need to start somewhere. And I believe that recognizing that all of those place bets is YOUR MONEY until the seven comes, is. a good place to start. Learn to turn them off. Use Spatial awareness"

--------------------Big problem of mine! I try to win and when I get my initial bets back in my rack I say "OK now I am playing with Casino money".


TheWolf713 "This might sound conservative, and this should not be your whole game...but I don't want to spend a whole weekend trying to do something I can do in 2-3 hours.. I'm a time guy... And I believe that minimizing your time there is the best asset a player has. I'm not just fascinated with rolling the dice."

----------------------I try to have two to three hour sessions max. Sometimes I leave the Casino down for the session instead of playing more.

TheWolf713 "I'm just trying to get people to get out of their own way and use instinct and intuition"

--------------------I use instinct but I need to do a much better job of developing Craps instinct.


TheWolf713 Okay the best craps betting strategy is... Not having a set strategy..... It's not Blackjack... you won't get two 8s and know to split.. It's going to be roll to roll... The last roll is history, the next is a mystery...

--------------------when you walk up to the table how do you assess what your first bet will be? How do wins and losses on hands\shooters determine the way to bet?

First I would like say, this information I am sharing is only a small fraction of this game of craps.. Trust me, the more hours you put in, the better you will be... And don't ever forget practice is the key. (which is why most people on the forum use their software and practice rigs...

Everyone has their own approach, and i dont want to give too much info so ill keep it quick, youll fill in the holes later (just remember i said that when you start thinking)...here's the big 3 everything else is cosmetic...Bank roll, discipline, and the door..
When I walk into a casino, my goal literally is to get back to my truck as fast as possible... Why would I use that as a goal?? Because it's very simple. It has nothing to do with money, the game, and I can touch my keys. (you'll understand that when you're up alot of money, you need something to pull you back to the table out of your dream of big money, kinda like inception lol) but i digress, back to the keys.. Now I want you to Think about a casino. The first thing they try to do is to strip your keys from you at the door by using a valet. This plays on your mind to take you out of your everyday train of thought... It's so convienient doesn't cost anything (that you can see) and yet they have already started stripping you of your freedom.. The freedom to leave... When you want.. And there's a big difference between leaving when the valet comes and literally bolting out of the door. Time is still on their side. An extra 2 minutes are all they need for you to turn around and go play another game... Time is not your friend around those lights...


When I walk up to a table... Nothing that happened before I came matters... I wasn't there. It doesn't concern me. Don't care If it's "cold or hot". Honestly there is no such thing... Now look at the brain power I just saved by deleting all of that nonsense...I'm already saving you time and energy. Wow!!

I make my own assessments of players throwing.. Everyone is given a blank slip, they are all random until I see otherwise.. So all I see 4-6 rolls or a PSO.. until they go further. Have you ever heard somebody say "hey bet on that guy, he's been hot all night"... Now the young money hungry guy will do it.. But a savvy veteran would say... If he's been here all night, his fatigue should be about to set in. that is what you call PLAYING in the NOW. Don't speculate too much or go into the future too hard either...

next which shooters... You will never forget this once I say this I promise.....

"If he's such a good shooter why doesn't he have any freaking MONEY!!!"-Rockstar
One of my favorite old timers told me this and it has stuck with me through the years.... If You wanna know if that guy who is setting the dice can really throw, you only have to see one thing.... Jerry maguire.... Show me the money...

I will message you about the bankroll stuff. I'm don't want to flood the forum with too much random stuff.

Quote: Ericcraps

Believe me. I have gotten absolutely hammered playing the wrong way at a hot table so stubbornness is not a plus here it is a hindrance.

Eric,

Thanks for joining the thread. How exactly do you play the Don't?

I played a 3 chip DP game where I would parlay the win and after that second win go back to 3 chips. After every loss I would bet 3 chips.

I did OK betting green chips for two back to back sessions (won over $1K each) and then ran into a table with multiple hot shooters and got hammered. My reaction to that event was to make me step back and ask why didn't I take advantage of the action that was happening in front of me? I am fully aware there is no way to know the future but I am trying to understand the best betting strategy I can use ... in the moment...to play smarter.


Thanks again.

Quote: dicesitter

What makes craps such a good game is that it is the only game where you have any control over the outcome.... bj is fine if
you are an excellent card counter, however when counting cards there are a couple of things to keep in mind, casino rules
as well as deck penetration. The casino can make it hard. Also when card counting, one thing to keep in mind is that when
the count is your favor... since the dealer has a hand just like you do..... he has the same advantage in terms of getting
10 count cards.

Of course I'm preaching to the choir with this board, but I just have to point out that this portrayal of card counting is misleading. Yes the dealer has the same probability of getting 10 count cards in their hand, but they don't have the option to stand on a 16 like the player does. They also only win even money on naturals, while the player gets paid 1.5...that, in a nutshell, is what makes card counting viable.

Quote: TheWolf713

...The last roll is history, the next is a mystery...

What a great line! I think I gotta use that one in my sig...

Quote: imaginal

Aces and Eights "Stick to the lowest-edge bets (pass line/come+odds or don't pass/come+odds)"

------------------How do you decide when to play the do or don't?

That's a great question :).

I started out as a right-way bettor. Then I learned about the don't pass and it pulled me in...had some good results at first, and I just enjoyed being contrarian. Although some of my favorite sessions playing the don't have been when a small group of 2-3 players all join in on the dark side, the table sure looks weird!

Nowadays I kind of waffle back and forth...if I'm playing with friends, I usually just go with the flow and play pass+come. If I'm at a table all by myself, I will almost always play the don't, because I tend to be a "horrible" shooter in terms of setting up a bunch of numbers and rolling the 7 (this is, of course, over a small sample size). If I'm not with friends but on a table with other people, I tend to stick to the don'ts, but will sometimes switch. I'm very non-superstitious, so I don't feel like the "Craps gods" hate it when you switch during a session. But in any case, I don't do it very often anyway. Sometimes I will play the pass line for all the other shooters, but play the don't on my own rolls.

The bottom line is that the house has the advantage both ways. Play to have fun and don't gamble with the rent money. Hope you get some good variance.

Quote: AcesAndEights

I started out as a right-way bettor. Then I learned about the don't pass and it pulled me in

It sounds like the OP, imaginal, likes various bets, so it comes back to whether or not he buys into the 'line with odds' betting or not, right or dark. Darkside is allowed only for the line plus you may lay the numbers [if the latter is allowed]. Can't lay the field or middle-table bets. Also it is fairly important to know if you pay 5% on losses laying numbers.

I guess my point is that a player can consider the darkside if he buys into the idea that there are only a few bets worth making in the first place. Otherwise he will be hedging and the house benefits.

My craps strategy is pretty basic. I havent played much, but when I have its turned out pretty well, as long as theres a good group of shooters. Basically before the come out I will throw $5 on the pass line, $5 on the field, $5 on the 9, and $6 on the 6 and 8 (I think thats the way it sets up to get even payouts) If the point ends up on a 6.8. or 9, Ill throw $5 on my odds, and move the bet I had on the # that became the point to the 5. That way, anything other than hitting the "dont pass" pays me. I only leave my original bets out there, and never press anything. If a bet for some reason comes down, (for instance a 6 hits and gets rid of my field bet) I still get $7 from the 6 bet, put $2 into my stack, and put the $5 back onto my field bet. Its not a system thats going to instantly make you rich, but its safe, and can be done fairly cheaply, especially with the low limits here in Colorado

thanks for the correction.... but you and i both know what my point was.......i have seen many people and i know i have lost tons of money
when the count was very much in my favor... I have played long hours with no blackjack on my higher dollar bets,
and have played the remainder of a shoe or cut with the count in my favor and lost every hand...

the point being is not that card counting does not work, it is that you still dont have control.

In craps a good dicesitter has "some" control

dicesitter.

deleted

My strategy for betting the don't is as follows:
Come out roll - 15 dollars on the Don't Pass Line. Number established (if it is 6,8,9 I back up with 150. if it is 4,10 I back up with 90. If it is a 5, I move my bet to the Don't Come since I have lost thousands on a 5 and I refuse to bet it in any way shape or form - yes, I am superstitious). I then put 15 onto the Don't Come and wait for more and more numbers to hit. Same rules apply to the odds as above. Ideally, I cover all the numbers and pray for the 7. My rationale on the wrong way / dark side of betting is that it is like you are betting with the house (sancho panza you are correct that there is no better edge) - but presumably 95% of bettors want their numbers to hit while the table is taking the inverse to it to make money. I want to go with the contrarian thought and go where they are penalizing you with odds - because it hits more often. I often debate starting with a 15 initial bet, then 20, 25, 30 and changing the odds along with those numbers to get true odds but I find that just can get more painful if a shooter starts to get "hot" and before I know it I am down 700 dollars on a single shooter. Being more "conservative (relatively speaking)" allows more time to ride out streaks and i would rather regret later not betting enough than realizing I bet too much for my trip's bankroll.

I used to get stupid with horn hi yo / world bets but those are absolute sucker bets that at best pay me back 30% of my bets over time. Translation - the middle of the table is still the devil. That's why the give you the whacky odds!

I am very depressed - as a seasoned degenerate, I don't know what a 3 chip game is?

Quote: Ericcraps

My strategy for betting the don't is as follows:
Come out roll - 15 dollars on the Don't Pass Line. Number established (if it is 6,8,9 I back up with 150. if it is 4,10 I back up with 90. If it is a 5, I move my bet to the Don't Come since I have lost thousands on a 5 and I refuse to bet it in any way shape or form - yes, I am superstitious).
I used to get stupid with horn hi yo / world bets but those are absolute sucker bets that at best pay me back 30% of my bets over time.

By moving your DP with a point of 5 to the DC, you are losing almost $200 per 60 bets! And you say the prop bets are sucker bets?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

if it was only $200.00 over 60 bets, i would take it all day long. Trust me. The 5 finds me (I know this is not true, but it sure feels like it).

Quote: Ericcraps

if it was only $200.00 over 60 bets, i would take it all day long. Trust me. The 5 finds me (I know this is not true, but it sure feels like it).

Quote: Beethoven9th

The 7 and 11 will find you faster once you take your bet off the DP and put it on DC.

The ev of a $15 DC is -$.21; the ev of a $15 DP on a 5 is +$3.00.
However, superstition trumps logic.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: Ericcraps

I am very depressed - as a seasoned degenerate, I don't know what a 3 chip game is?

Eric,

Thanks for explaining how you play the DP/DC.

...As far as the 3 chip game... an old retired Craps dealer suggested this play to my brother years ago. It is just a reverse Martingale where you try to get two wins in a row:

bet 3 chips /Win
Parlay bet 6 chips /Win... start over
Any loss start back at 3 chips

For a 3 chip bet you win 9 chips and start over...choose any color chip you like.

Thanks again.

Quote: goatcabin

Changing one's betting strategy when losing: unless you believe in DI, which I do not, the "temperature" of the table tells you nothing about the future, so there is no reason to switch, nor not to switch. Whether you're betting rightside line bets/place bets or darkside/lay bets, the next decision is totally unpredictable, so it's no different from betting even or odd numbers. (Actually, I have never heard of that in craps.)

Cheers, and good luck,
Alan Shank

Thanks Alan I sincerely appreciate your insight.

In regards to place betting the even box numbers...it is just combining the 6 and 8 (best chance of a hit) with the 4 and 10 (highest paying)...I had limited success with this strategy and realized I should get smarter.

Thanks again

Quote: imaginal

Thanks Alan I sincerely appreciate your insight.

In regards to place betting the even box numbers...it is just combining the 6 and 8 (best chance of a hit) with the 4 and 10 (highest paying)...I had limited success with this strategy and realized I should get smarter.

Thanks again

I forgot to ask, What is your normal bankroll you use when you play?

Great question.

I try to buy in for 1200 to 1500. I also like a lot of green chips the Casino always wants to give me black chips.

I pick that number because it gives me chips to play with and it allows me to navigate the session so I decide when I am done for that session.

I never have lost my complete buy in. I refuse to do it. Money management? I hope so, because I haven't figured out any other way at the moment.

By the way I do plan on increasing my buy in sometime in the near future.

As far as superstitions go, some of you may have noticed I have my own. However, I'd like anyone to point out one of mine that can be patently shown to be disadvantageous. If I hated the five as my number to resolve darkside I'd have to convince myself my luck would turn eventually. I'd just skip laying the odds if I had been treated badly by that number like Ericcraps evidently has been. A case can be made that free odds don't help you win more.

Quote: odiousgambit

As far as superstitions go, some of you may have noticed I have my own. However, I'd like anyone to point out one of mine that can be patently shown to be disadvantageous. If I hated the five as my number to resolve darkside I'd have to convince myself my luck would turn eventually. I'd just skip laying the odds if I had been treated badly by that number like Ericcraps evidently has been. A case can be made that free odds don't help you win more.

The house edge per roll in craps is 0.4% or higher on no fewer than 22% of the rolls on the table. Period.

IE: no math in the world will give you a free bet when the puck says off. There are no free bets available on about 22.2% the time.

If you were to look at the average percentage house edge per roll, it never goes below 1/5th of 0.4% or 0.08%. So if you want to talk about the lowest house edge, there are no craps tables anywhere that have house edges per roll that average lower than 0.08%. That is as low as the average house edge percentage will ever go on any craps table that I know of besides possibly the Santa Anta Star.

To calculate the true average house edge per roll, you have to realize that the percentage of free bets is less than half. In fact, you can only get an average of about two free bets per roll even if you try as hard as you can! And even in that case, you have an average of three non-free bets in that case.

If you only cover one point, 20% of the time you have no free bets, and 80% of the time you have two non free bets and one free bet. Here's the details of the best case scenarios on average:

(output updated, not sure I have it right yet though)

==> out/do,1p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 0.544
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 45.585%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 54.415%
Non free bets: 1.544 free bets 0.544

==> out/do,2p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 0.954
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 28.437%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 47.755%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 23.808%
Non free bets: 1.954 free bets 0.954

==> out/do,3p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 1.348
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 24.198%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 30.727%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 31.167%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 13.909%
Non free bets: 2.348 free bets 1.348

==> out/do,4p,w,10x.txt <==
Bet $50 odds on the 10
Taking down $10 in bets
Average number of points covered was 1.647
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 23.108%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 24.958%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 23.358%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 21.318%
Percentage of rolls with 4 points covered was 7.259%
Non free bets: 2.647 free bets 1.647

==> out/do,5p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 1.839
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 22.748%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 23.148%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 20.608%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 17.338%
Percentage of rolls with 4 points covered was 13.309%
Percentage of rolls with 5 points covered was 2.850%
Non free bets: 2.839 free bets 1.839

==> out/do,6p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 1.942
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 22.698%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 22.968%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 19.658%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 15.848%
Percentage of rolls with 4 points covered was 11.309%
Percentage of rolls with 5 points covered was 5.999%
Percentage of rolls with 6 points covered was 1.520%
Non free bets: 2.942 free bets 1.942

So about 26.66% (.54 / (1.54+.54)) to 39.76% (1.92 / ( 2.92 + 1.92 ) ) of your bets are allowed to be free bets depending on how many points you decide to cover.

Does anyone know if the wizard uses these fractional ranges to come up with the combined house edges that everyone references so often, or is a 50% number used where it's assumed that half the bets are free and half the bets are not free?

Quote: Ahigh

The house edge per roll in craps is 0.4% or higher on 1/6th of the rolls on the table. Period.

IE: no math in the world will give you a free bet when the puck says off.
The puck says off on average about 20% the time.

20% sounds too low.
The Wizard shows higher and I agree. Almost 50% higher.
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/general/
"So the percentage of come out rolls is 2.5255/8.5255 = 29.6%"

1671/196 is the average number of rolls per shooter = 8.5255
557/165 is the average number of rolls per decision = 3.375
495/196 = 2.5255 decisions per shooter (come out rolls)
=165/557
check

Some Empirical evidence
The Zumma Craps system tester book
that contains 35,097 actual casino dice rolls had
10,612 come out rolls for an average of 3.307 rolls per decision
That is 30.24% (1/3.307)*100
check