hook3670
hook3670
Joined: May 17, 2011
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:19:58 PM permalink
I have been gambling many many years at VP and card games but I am fairly new to craps and really enjoy the game. If there is a slight house edge to playing the game on the players side, would there not be the equal advantage play for betting with the house in craps? If not I would love to know why not.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:22:30 PM permalink
There would be if you won on the 12 on the comeout.

When they don't pay you when the 12 rolls, that is the house advantage.

For almost a zero edge, they could pay the don'ts half their bet and take away half the do bet.

The fact that they take the pass line and don't pay the don't pass line is where the edge "lives" so to speak.
hook3670
hook3670
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:47:04 PM permalink
Thank you. Embarrassingly, the whole time I have been playing, I never realized you do not get paid on the 12 if you bet on the house(granted 99% of the time I have bet on the players side). That explains it. Just out of curiosity, what does that make the HE for Don't players?
sodawater
sodawater
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:52:43 PM permalink
House edge for craps:

Pass line, no odds: 1.41%

Don't pass, no odds: 1.40%
Ahigh
Ahigh
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:54:11 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

House edge for craps:

Pass line, no odds: 1.41%

Don't pass, no odds: 1.40%



That's right. There some discussion that if you count a tie as resolved, the don't is 1.36%. Either way, for the same number of rolls, you will last longer on the don't pass line as you get into the millions of rolls because of the push.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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February 7th, 2013 at 2:13:39 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

That's right. There some discussion that if you count a tie as resolved, the don't is 1.36%. Either way, for the same number of rolls, you will last longer on the don't pass line as you get into the millions of rolls because of the push.


A very long time ago I figured out the number of trials that would be necessary to determine that one's bankroll results were less negative as a result of betting don't pass than betting pass (as opposed to just getting lucky). I can't remember the exact final result, but it was on the order of more bets than anyone could make in several lifetimes.

In other words, don't sweat the 0.01%. You'll never be able to tell the difference.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ahigh
Ahigh
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February 7th, 2013 at 2:31:08 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

A very long time ago I figured out the number of trials that would be necessary to determine that one's bankroll results were less negative as a result of betting don't pass than betting pass (as opposed to just getting lucky). I can't remember the exact final result, but it was on the order of more bets than anyone could make in several lifetimes.

In other words, don't sweat the 0.01%. You'll never be able to tell the difference.



Now, THAT ... is an intelligent post. I also want to point out that I generally agree that the edges can be considered to be the same on the do and don'ts. But oh how the arguments about how Scarne had it all wrong can take up a weekend's worth of arguing for those with time to talk about it.
7craps
7craps
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February 7th, 2013 at 3:15:18 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

That's right. There some discussion that if you count a tie as resolved, the don't is 1.36%.
Either way, for the same number of rolls, you will last longer on the don't pass line as you get into the millions of rolls because of the push.

If one looks at the EV over say 1000 $5 pass line bets resolved for the don't pass using both HE values, the EV should be the same.

Player A makes 1000 pass line bets
at the same time
Player B makes 1000 don't pass line bets.

Their EV for the 1000 bets is???

we can easily see which value is easier to "use" for the don't pass EV calculations.

1000 $5 pass line bets resolved.
How many don't pass bets will be resolved as a win or a loss???
Ah, that is a random variable.Yes? We can get an average.


EV 1000 pass line bets = -7/495 (1.41%) * 1000 *$5 = -$70.71
EV 1000 don't pass line bets = -3/220 (1.36%) * 1000 * $5 = -$68.18 (we count the ties as resolved bets from the #12 pushes)

Now to "not count" the ties =
-27/1925 (1.40%) * (1000 - (1000/36)) * $5 = -68.18

Huh? The EV is the same.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
ewjones080
ewjones080
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February 7th, 2013 at 4:56:57 PM permalink
I think it's important to count the 12 for "regular" play over a lifetime.. But important NOT to count it if your playing some kind of "system" that only depend on wins and losses. Aren't pushes counted in Blackjack when figuring house edge?
Ahigh
Ahigh
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February 7th, 2013 at 6:01:11 PM permalink
For the purpose of culling off conversation, the differences between the do and don't side of the game (especially without considering odds) are negligible.

The only way there is any difference at all is when you start making come or DC bets on top when it comes to comparing the two. Combining pass line with come bets or don't pass line with DC bets has more of an effect on your up-and-down action than doing the pass line versus the don't pass line when you're just doing one bet at a time with no odds.

If you only want one single bet on the felt at a time (like a Baccarat player) .. it makes NO MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE what side of the table you play on in terms of chance of winning that one bet out there in the long run.

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