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100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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January 14th, 2013 at 5:44:04 AM permalink
The HE is ~1.4% for both Pass and Dont Pass.

But on a long roll with Passline/Come, you leave $ on the table when the 7 eventually shows up.
That *HAS* to increase the HE from the players perspective. You're not taking in all the $.

It's like tipping the dealers 5% when you leave.

Example:
Excluding the odds bets, the house edge on the pass line is 3.88% and the house edge on the don't pass is 3.76% if you tip the dealers 5%.

Example2:
Banker in baccarat = 1.06% HE
5% tip on winning bets ups the HE to 3.35%

Thread about how tipping affects the HE:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10935-house-edge-if-you-include-5-tipping/


In my lastest thread about a long roll, i left 1/3 of what I won on the table when the 7 came.
That's like giving the casino a 33% tip!

When playing Dont Pass, there's no $ left on the table. When you win, all $ comes to you.


If I'm wrong, where's the hole in my logic?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
darthvader
darthvader
Joined: Jul 7, 2012
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January 14th, 2013 at 6:06:13 AM permalink
The LONG TERM mathematical HE are as you have stated. However, I believe the point to which you are alluding is exactly what I have seen in practice: that the variance on the right side is typically much worse than that of the darkside. This comes from that fact that most players press any winnings that they get. On a hot roll, this results in a big win. However, on most rolls, this simply gives most, if not all, of the winnings right back to the casino. You will even hear banter about "playing with the casino's money" as a rationalization for the pressing. No such thing. Chips in the rack are the player's money, and each bet is independent.

At the end of the day, there are very few right side players that leave the table in the black, and most have losses that far exceed 1.4%. But such is the cost of entertainment. Can you guess how I play?
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
darthvader
darthvader
Joined: Jul 7, 2012
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January 14th, 2013 at 6:27:32 AM permalink
Using a sports analogy, playing the right side with pressing is swinging for the fences at every at bat. Once in a while, you will hit a home run. Most of the time, you will strike out. Playing the darkside results in lots of singles and a higher % of winning sessions. Neither is fundamentally better (ignoring a very small diff in the HE). It just depends on what you want out of your casino experience.

Ask yourself this, however. When the casino "teaches" you how to play in those free sessions, what do they "teach?" What makes them the most money.
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 14th, 2013 at 6:40:24 AM permalink
Quote: darthvader

... most players press any winnings that they get. On a hot roll, this results in a big win. However, on most rolls, this simply gives most, if not all, of the winnings right back to the casino. You will even hear banter about "playing with the casino's money" as a rationalization for the pressing. No such thing. Chips in the rack are the player's money, and each bet is independent.


Yes. Although there are many "grinders" who just stand there making endless minimum bets against the house edge, most players seem to "press their luck" by using winnings to increase their bets and referring to this as "the casino's money" is a way of providing themselves some comfort as they hope for the big win to materialize.

Of course even someone who has their money in the Don't, when they get that dealer's fist next to the bet rarely take "their" money back, they just leave it there as another bet on the Dark Side. Dark Side bettors often comfort themselves by thinking they are betting on the side of the casino and gleefully lay odds for the more-likely event. All the while hoping for a fairly short roll to take place.

Neither "Right Siders" nor "Wrong Siders" have any of the casino's money to bet with. That "casinos money" are prior winnings that the bettor has already purchased through exposing the funds to risk. Its the Bettor's money ... but neither Right Side nor Wrong Side bettors seem to act that way soon enough.
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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January 14th, 2013 at 3:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

The HE is ~1.4% for both Pass and Dont Pass.

But on a long roll with Passline/Come, you leave $ on the table when the 7 eventually shows up.
That *HAS* to increase the HE from the players perspective. You're not taking in all the $.

In my lastest thread about a long roll, i left 1/3 of what I won on the table when the 7 came.
That's like giving the casino a 33% tip!

When playing Dont Pass, there's no $ left on the table. When you win, all $ comes to you.

If I'm wrong, where's the hole in my logic?



At the end of a long roll with bets on pass/come, yes one leaves $$ on the table, but during the same long roll a DP/DC player has been losing all along, finally winning when the seven-out comes. The ev's are almost exactly the same.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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January 14th, 2013 at 3:07:39 PM permalink
Quote: darthvader

Using a sports analogy, playing the right side with pressing is swinging for the fences at every at bat. Once in a while, you will hit a home run. Most of the time, you will strike out. Playing the darkside results in lots of singles and a higher % of winning sessions.



Actually, there is very little difference between pass and DP, in terms of ev, standard deviation or skew. The odds bets are skewed oppositely, but this difference decreases pretty fast as you have more decisions.

Of course, if a "rightside" player tends to bet progressively and a "wrongside" player doesn't, the skews will be very different, but it's not inherent in the bets themselves.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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January 14th, 2013 at 3:11:21 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

The HE is ~1.4% for both Pass and Dont Pass.

But on a long roll with Passline/Come, you leave $ on the table when the 7 eventually shows up.
That *HAS* to increase the HE from the players perspective. You're not taking in all the $


If I'm wrong, where's the hole in my logic?



Yes the 7 has to come eventually, just like the hard 6 has to come eventually, just like any roll has to come eventually. It doesn't affect the house edge at all.

Pass/come bets will be profitable if the 7 comes later than expected and will lose if the 7 comes as expected or sooner than expected. Hard 6 bets will be profitable if the 3/3 comes sooner than expected and will lose if it comes as expected or later than expected.

Just because a Pass/come player has bets out when the 7-out hits doesn't affect the house edge one bit. Having multiple bets up means you win more when you win and lose more when you lose.

Of course, it will increase TOTAL money lost but the RATIO of money lost stays the same (which is house edge)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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January 14th, 2013 at 3:27:30 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

In my latest thread about a long roll, I left 1/3 of what I won on the table when the 7out came.
That's like giving the casino a 33% tip!

Takes money to make money.
Just like a business.

Gots incomes and expenses.

And
not all businesses make money the longer they are in business
not all craps players make money the longer they play craps
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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January 14th, 2013 at 3:35:23 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Quote: 100xOdds

The HE is ~1.4% for both Pass and Dont Pass.

But on a long roll with Passline/Come, you leave $ on the table when the 7 eventually shows up.
That *HAS* to increase the HE from the players perspective. You're not taking in all the $.

In my lastest thread about a long roll, i left 1/3 of what I won on the table when the 7 came.
That's like giving the casino a 33% tip!

When playing Dont Pass, there's no $ left on the table. When you win, all $ comes to you.

If I'm wrong, where's the hole in my logic?



At the end of a long roll with bets on pass/come, yes one leaves $$ on the table, but during the same long roll a DP/DC player has been losing all along, finally winning when the seven-out comes. The ev's are almost exactly the same.
Cheers,
Alan Shank



WELCOME back Alan ! You have been sorely missed.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
January 14th, 2013 at 3:37:22 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

The HE is ~1.4% for both Pass and Dont Pass.

But on a long roll with Passline/Come, you leave $ on the table when the 7 eventually shows up.
That *HAS* to increase the HE from the players perspective. You're not taking in all the $.

It's like tipping the dealers 5% when you leave.

Example:
Excluding the odds bets, the house edge on the pass line is 3.88% and the house edge on the don't pass is 3.76% if you tip the dealers 5%.

Example2:
Banker in baccarat = 1.06% HE
5% tip on winning bets ups the HE to 3.35%

Thread about how tipping affects the HE:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10935-house-edge-if-you-include-5-tipping/


In my lastest thread about a long roll, i left 1/3 of what I won on the table when the 7 came.
That's like giving the casino a 33% tip!

When playing Dont Pass, there's no $ left on the table. When you win, all $ comes to you.


If I'm wrong, where's the hole in my logic?



You're wrong.

If you are pressing when you play right side and not when you play dark side, then of course you will lose more money in the long run. This is not because the house edge is higher; it's because you are betting more money with that edge.

If you press the same amount (or don't press at all) and you bet about the same amount of money then you will lose about the same amount. You long-term losses will be house edge multiplied by amount bet. You can't change that by structuring your betting patterns differently -- this is exactly what all the betting system crackpots are trying to do.

Expected loss = house edge x total amount bet. That is all that there is to it. If you get something different, you are making a mistake.

It is true that the distribution of your results will be different when playing right way vs dark side, but this has nothing to do with expectation. Leaving the money on the table when you lose is not "like tipping"; it's losing a bet that you made. The fact that when you lose playing dark side you lose one bet at a time over several rolls, vs losing all your bets at once on one roll is irrelevant. This does not change the EV.

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