REALLY blew out my bankroll

This is hard for me to write, but I am not the kind of person to hide from big losses and keep them secret.

I am down over five figures playing craps since October 1, 2012. I have no more bankroll to speak of.

I never make a bet more than the table minimum on anything other than a free bet. Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200. My actual loss is about 50 times that. I always take max odds on the passline with a couple come bets, also max odds. Usually I end up making a come bet every roll, with max odds.

If you said this was playing optimally you would be correct. However, it was a stupid method for me. I was making bets way out of proportion to my bankroll, and just never saw any upside. I lost just about every session I played. If there are no good or even mediocre shooters, you get cleaned out incredibly quickly.

For someone who always make optimal bets on video poker and any other game, this is incredibly embarrassing as well as psychologically troubling for me. I am beginning to wonder if I can control myself and live a healthy lifestyle here in Las Vegas. To try to repair things a little, I will not be playing for the next 6 to 8 weeks while I pursue other life goals (like passing the bar exam). Financially, I am still solvent, but there's just no room for recreational playing anymore until I get my stuff together.

Sorry for this solipistic rant, but it needed to be said. I've already found it helpful talking with other people on the board about it privately. I still enjoy playing with forum members and meeting people who come to town, but this is going to be on hold for the near future. I will still be doing the Wizard's radio show on Jan. 17th.

Teddys,

I stopped gambling a few months ago because the losses were getting out of hand due to a lack of discipline. I estimate a $10K loss last year, from playing VP, Pai Gow, and Blackjack. I stopped playing craps a couple of years ago because I "beat the game" -- hit a six point fire for $4K, and it was no longer interesting to me and found that when I did play craps, my bets were just stupid and undisciplined.

For me, if I was ahead, I still wouldn't leave: rather I'd keep on pressing bets until a loss was inevitable. And when we were behind, I'd keep betting, looking for a good break to come back, and never getting it. No discipline and spending too much time in the casino makes for great casino customers.

And for you, you've just had an incredible streak of bad variance. And at a $5 table with max odds and two come bets up, you're looking at a $70-$75 exposure every PL. Your session bankroll would probably need to be about $2 - 3K to even out the inevitable periods of bad shooters.

My finances are out of order because of gambling, and I needed to take a step back to reprioritize my financial priorities and to clean things up again. I hope to take a break for a year and then establish a recreational budget for gambling if I still enjoy it.

I fear for alot of people on this forum who gamble alot and lose much more than they are willing to admit. If you are going to gamble, you have to be disciplined, play with a bankroll (an amount you can afford, but is big enough to handle most session variances), and play smartly. For me, that went out the window about 18 months ago and I finally did something about it (stopped gambling) a few months ago out of necessity.

Security is your ability to produce. You're a smart guy, so I'm sure you have this covered.
No doubt, many people would jump at the chance to trade places with you right now.

Probably won't make you feel any better, but I also play optimally, and I lose every
freaking time! Hang in there.

Quote: boymimbo

Teddys,


And for you, you've just had an incredible streak of bad variance. And at a $5 table with max odds and two come bets up, you're looking at a $70-$75 exposure every PL. Your session bankroll would probably need to be about $2 - 3K to even out the inevitable periods of bad shooters.

10x odds here in Vegas. So, typical exposure of $150-$200 per shooter. Still bad variance; I estimate two standard deviations to the left.

I was retarded to throw that kind of money on the felt and I admit it -- free bet or not that is a ridiculous sum to wager considering my finances.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

There's no reason for you to feel embarrassed.

I think a lot of us were somewhat jealous when we learned months ago that you were "homeless", and again when Mike started his thread about questions to ask you.

Frankly, I had no idea that your Vegas Comp life was going to be a long-term thing, and feel bad that things didn't work out as well as you hoped.

But embarrassed? Nah. Just unlucky.

Quote: teddys

I never make a bet more than the table minimum on anything other than a free bet.
Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200.
My actual loss is about 50 times that.

That is to be totally expected.
You expected something different??, like losing close to the EV? I hope not.
Won't happen as you lose close to the HE as a percentage and not actual $$$s as you should know.
There is standard deviation also on that HE value for any number of trials.

Someone has to end 2SDs or more to the left of the mean
I am glad it was not me

And it is always possible that your bankroll, as a random walk, is ready to move up.
Guess you will have to wait until you start to play again to see where it goes

Good Luck

Quote: boymimbo

I fear for alot of people on this forum who gamble a lot and lose much more than they are willing to admit.
If you are going to gamble, you have to be disciplined, play with a bankroll (an amount you can afford,
but is big enough to handle most session variances), and play smartly.

But one still can not control variance while making bets on independent events.
Almost Everyone thinks that after playing N sessions and N# of hands they will lose X EV$s.(or very close to it)
Not so.

It is net $win(loss) / total $action resolved = HE
the longer we play we get closer to HE as a %

Everyone wants instead

Total action * HE = EV
to be their ending bankroll after N plays.

more than likely ain't going to happen. and not even close the more one plays and more bets are made.

one needs more luck to win(lose less) the longer one plays
or have your bet selection win more than average.
still an up-hill climb on an icy slope.

EV just tells the center point of a distribution (all the possible outcomes of many bets)
standard deviation tells us where we might fall under the curve after making many bets.
we are along for the ride

Yes, somebody has to be on the left side of that bell-shaped curve. I feel your pain; been there.

My totally indefensible position has always been, once the dice or cards know you are pushing the limit on your bankroll [for the session, or total gambling budget either one] they get a monstrous hard-on for the balance. That's a crude thing to say, my apologies; and superstitious too, not scientific, but there it is.

More factually, one's bankroll will describe a sine wave every time; check it out with Wincraps. If you had a limited bankroll, and I would say you did with low 5 figures playing 10x odds, sooner or later ruin was coming, except for the very luckiest out there. You were really trying to get lucky, I would say, to expect your bankroll to last.

My sympathies though! I know what losing streaks are like! And, geez, bad timing just before going on the radio. Hope you don't cancel, looking forward to it!

deleted

Quote: teddys

I never make a bet more than the table minimum on anything other than a free bet. Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200. My actual loss is about 50 times that. I always take max odds on the passline with a couple come bets, also max odds. Usually I end up making a come bet every roll, with max odds.

I am sorry this happened to you and this kind of thinking is something I have tried to argue and fight for more than 15 years on craps discussion forums.

For years everyone proclaims there is "no house advantage" on the odds bets. But they overlook that there is no player advantage either.

For years everyone proclaims that max odds reduces the house edge -- but they fail to mention it never elininates the house edge.

There is NO betting formula or system or regimen or routine that will make anyone win at the craps table.

The only way to win at craps is to somehow -- someway -- alter the random distribution of the numbers that show when two dice are thrown down the table.

Until you somehow can master that skill, there is no point in doing anything but make the minimal bet with the minimum financial exposure.

But teddys you are not alone. You just admitted what has happened to all of us.

Quote: teddys

10x odds here in Vegas. So, typical exposure of $150-$200 per shooter. Still bad variance; I estimate two standard deviations to the left.

I was retarded to throw that kind of money on the felt and I admit it -- free bet or not that is a ridiculous sum to wager considering my finances.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

wow! so sorry to hear about your bad varaince.

like you, i play 'optimally' too with passline and continuous come.
my bankroll = avg $ at risk x 10. since there are 6 #s, i guess-timate I have $ on 3 of them on avg per shooter.

on $10min 3/4/5x table, i will have $50/number on avg.
$50 x 3 = 150 x 10 = $1500 bankroll

for $5min/10x odds, it's $55/number. thus 55 x 3 = 165 x 10 = 1650 would have been my bankroll.

What do you mean it's a ridiculous sum to wager considering your finances?
if you lost 5 figures, then you easily have the $1650 bankroll covered???

or do you mean you should have stopped once you lost your initial 1650 bankroll? and losing 6x that is the ridiculous sum considering your finances?

and again.. WOW super bad variance :(

Quote: 100xOdds

What do you mean it's a ridiculous a sum to wager considering your finances?
if you lost 5 figures, then you easily have the $1650 bankroll covered???

I would bet that most gamblers will pick a bankroll figure that is actually higher than they really can afford to lose, they just don't 'really' expect to lose it!
I am hoping teddy recovers his bankroll by March 10, when I am making my return trip to Vegas.

Quote: AlanMendelson

There is NO betting formula or system or regimen or routine that will make anyone win at the craps table.

It is ALL about luck. especially when the game is -EV.
Some say better bet selection, especially never bet against a trend.
Are they wrong???

Quote: AlanMendelson

The only way to win at craps is to somehow -- someway -- alter the random distribution of the numbers that show when two dice are thrown down the table.

If 1 million others played exactly like T,making many HIGH VARIANCE TYPE BETS, the odds at 10x,
not ALL would have been losers.
Come on. get real

The curve is not shaped that way. Period.
People win by luck, that is what it is called. A series of Independent events follow a random walk.

Bet on it, you are just walking with it,
not telling it where to go.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Until you somehow can master that skill, there is no point in doing anything but make the minimal bet with the minimum financial exposure.
But teddys you are not alone. You just admitted what has happened to all of us.

Again, many win after playing the number of bets T made.

But many just see a few trees and not the whole forest.

Quote: teddys

This is hard for me to write, but I am not the kind of person to hide from big losses and keep them secret:

That shows character.

>I never make a bet more than the table minimum ...
So you were a Grinder... constantly butting up against the House Edge. Never pressing bets, just a constant grind.

>Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200.
Oh no, .... much much more than that. You go look at those tables for 90 percent avoidance of Gamblers Ruin... they are for ONE passline bet with no odds, no come bets, no tips to dealers, no tips to waitresses, no errors.

>I always take max odds on the passline with a couple come bets, also max odds.
>Usually I end up making a come bet every roll, with max odds.
So which is it. You have the discipline to do just two come bets or you are continually lapsing into a come bet for every roll.

>If you said this was playing optimally you would be correct.
Optimally from the casino's point of view! You were not able to define a system nor were you able to stick to it. You made no allowance for hot or cold tables.

I know that darned article is based on only 200 rolls for each system, but why don't you look at the twenty dice systems and select one that is "your style" ... then comes the hard part: stick to it.!!

You've heard of those "walked into Binions and put the entire suitcase on the PassLine" stories. You know that is so much better than the constant grind of table minimum bets.

Free rooms and free meals... what pit boss would be so foolish as to not give them to you.

Teddy,
I feel your pain man...about two years ago, I lost $5000 over the course of 8 hours of playing "the best bets" at dice...(I stuck $2000, then rebought for $3000 in an attempt to recoup the first session...err, wrong!)
Its easier to play small and regret not betting when the big hand comes along....than it is to play big and regret that the big hand never came...

Quote: 7craps

Again, many win after playing the number of bets T made.

Wake up. Everybody loses at craps. Everybody. It's only a matter of how much you have to lose and how quickly you will lose it.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Wake up. Everybody loses at craps. Everybody. It's only a matter of how much you have to lose and how quickly you will lose it.

It's possible to win at craps if you get lucky. Do a simple test on a million rolls at x5 odds, and you'll see a percentage of players will end up in the positive.

Quote: thecesspit

It's possible to win at craps if you get lucky.
Do a simple test on a million rolls at x5 odds, and you'll see a percentage of players will end up in the positive.

AlanM has already made up his mind.
Excellent.

Plus, never tell a Real Craps player, like AlanM, to simulate a craps game.

A computer can NEVER, 100% of the time, produce craps numbers the same as they are on a real craps table.
That is because some dice rolls are less random than others.
Right?

Those short rolls only 3 feet and the stick calls it a roll is as random as when both dice go all the way down and hit the wall?
Dice hitting objects other than the far wall have to be less random.

AlanM statement is actually correct.
"Everybody loses at craps. Everybody"
Yep, I have never won every bet I have made and have never seen anyone else do it.

here is where he is not 100% correct
"It's only a matter of how much you have to lose and how quickly you will lose it."
But if that makes him feel better, have fun.

Again,
many see only a few trees and never sees the whole forest.

almost forgot,
1 million rolls is about 300,000 pass line bets

2X odds is ev/sd: -2.710251004
or 0.003361615 chance of being even or coming out ahead
out of 1 million players, making that many bets, on average,
3,162 will be invited to be on the Oprah show.

5X odds is ev/sd: -1.329939852
or 0.091769045 chance of being even or coming out ahead for those with a large enough bankroll
out of 1 million players, making that many bets, on average,
91,769 will be invited to be on the Oprah show.

Of course, AlanM will just say all of them will be losers. The math is never right in reality.
Only he will be on the Oprah show and that can not be all that bad.

Sucks man, better luck to you in the future. Major props for admitting it.

Teddy,

Been there done that. I can sympathize with you. Last year I had a three month stretch playing $20-$25 Pai Gow Poker where I lost close to $4,000 and had to stop for a while to replenish my account, which I thought was practically impossible. On one hand, I had a full house with Jacks over Aces dealer had full house kings over aces. The dealer felt so bad he apologized for the next hour. This past weekend I hit a $2,000 payout in VP my first of three nights. I proceeded to lose it all by the end of my trip playing banker on mini-baccarrat, PGP and full pay VP.

One fails to point out that we are much more LIKELY to finish up on the left side of the bell curve because our bankrolls are limited while the casino's bankrolls are infinite from our perspective.

Therefore, if our variance (EV x # bets x betsize) > bankroll, there is no opportunity to head to the right side of the variance distribution. We've reached a limit: our bankroll. On the other hand, if our variance goes to the right side of the variance distribution, there is an opportunity and a likelihood that we will head left again, and there is nothing stopping us except our personal discipline to tell us: "well, you're about 2 sigmas to the good of variance, time to quit". We are far (generally) more likely to keep playing.

That's what makes it possible to play a number of sessions and end up 2 sigmas away from normal. Our session limit is much less than the sum of the sessions and therefore, we hit the limit quicker because the session is shorter and our bankroll doesn't support the short term variance.

Quote: 7craps

AlanM has already made up his mind.
Excellent.

Plus, never tell a Real Craps player, like AlanM, to simulate a craps game.

A computer can NEVER, 100% of the time, produce craps numbers the same as they are on a real craps table.
That is because some dice rolls are less random than others.
Right?

Those short rolls only 3 feet and the stick calls it a roll is as random as when both dice go all the way down and hit the wall?
Dice hitting objects other than the far wall have to be less random.

Really? I'm pretty sure I could produce a string of craps rolls from a live table and a string from a decent computer RNG and you'd not be able to tell the difference.

I hear this all the time "a computer RNG is nothing like reality", but I'm yet to be shown that this is any way true. Just a lot of hand waving about the true nature of randomness.

Quote:

5X odds is ev/sd: -1.329939852
or 0.091769045 chance of being even or coming out ahead for those with a large enough bankroll
out of 1 million players, making that many bets, on average,
91,769 will be invited to be on the Oprah show.

Of course, AlanM will just say all of them will be losers. The math is never right in reality.

With x10 odds I think it's about 20% winners. Of course, there's a whole bunch of bigger losers

The math is always right in reality, unless the model being used is wrong. I am yet to be satisfied that the model is incorrect. One persons particular results are just a single data point in a vast cloud that a probability function models.

Quote: thecesspit

It's possible to win at craps if you get lucky. Do a simple test on a million rolls at x5 odds, and you'll see a percentage of players will end up in the positive.

Yep, even over long periods of time, proved this many times using Wincraps, even with merely 3x4x5x. With 10x or more, simulation shows Lifetime winners, Super Lifetime even [enduring more rolls than humanly possible]. It's funny, though, that we only seem to hear disaster stories at craps. I think one reason is we all underestimate the bankroll needed for the style of play we have.

Quote: SOOPOO

I would bet that most gamblers will pick a bankroll figure that is actually higher than they really can afford to lose, they just don't 'really' expect to lose it!.

That too.

See my blog too

I'd like to see someone do a WinCraps simulation with a loss limit. For example, set me up with a $5 table, max odds, two come bets, max odds, and a $1,000 session.

For each session, make the session = hit loss limit or 150 pass lines (about 400 rolls which represents four hour sessions).

Assume 2,000 sessions (50 sessions a year x 40 years) to make up a lifetime.

What are the results over 1,000 different lifetimes given these parameters.

Repeat the above with a $2,000 bankroll and a $500 bankroll.

I maintain that the session bankroll makes the distribution of winners skew to the left side of variance.

Quote: 100xOdds

like you, i play 'optimally' too with passline and continuous come.
my bankroll = avg $ at risk x 10. since there are 6 #s, i guess-timate I have $ on 3 of them on avg per shooter.

on $10min 3/4/5x table, i will have $50/number on avg.
$50 x 3 = 150 x 10 = $1500 bankroll

for $5min/10x odds, it's $55/number. thus 55 x 3 = 165 x 10 = 1650 would have been my bankroll.

100x, I'd have to say you seem to be touting a session bankroll. If you find a session bankroll also sufficient for your overall bankroll, you have been quite lucky at craps.

It's good to hear from someone who has been winning!

Quote: boymimbo

I'd like to see someone do a WinCraps simulation with a loss limit.

I'll give it a go

edit: it occurs to me I wouldnt know how to make wincraps say how each game was stopped for what reason. Perhaps someone else should try this.

Teddys

Like everybody else sorry to hear that you are losing at playing craps.

Now everybody on this forum can jump all over me and I'll throw Alan under the bus too, because you have been making the worst bets on the table. Just like Alan, I've been trying to get players to wake-up to the fact that the pass-line bet with full odds is nothing more then a sucker bet.

From a strictly math viewpoint, I can see why those bets are so easy to sell to the players and why there have only been a few writers challenge what most writers write about playing craps!

Quote:

AlanMendelson
For years everyone proclaims there is "no house advantage" on the odds bets. But they overlook that there is no player advantage either.

For years everyone proclaims that max odds reduces the house edge -- but they fail to mention it never elininates the house edge.
Now for what
There is NO betting formula or system or regimen or routine that will make anyone win at the craps table.

Now what Teddys has to say about how he bets the game.

Quote:

I never make a bet more than the table minimum on anything other than a free bet. Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200. My actual loss is about 50 times that. I always take max odds on the passline with a couple come bets, also max odds. Usually I end up making a come bet every roll, with max odds. .

To start with does anybody on this forum really believe that the casinos would give you a good bet, when they give you the so-called free odds bet?

I've only heard one dealer tell a player the worst bet they could make was the pass-line bet with full odds, when that happened I couldn't believe that he told them that, as they were new players in a very small casino. The dealers there make nothing, unless their players are winning. They get a lot of new players that are just passing through while heading to Vegas. The dealers want to see their players winning so they can make money!

Teddys you are making three bets that I consider the worst bets you can make on a craps table, the pass-line, the so-called free odds and lets not forget the come bet!

Lets look at the pass-line bet, it only pays even money and you lock yourself into that bet until it either wins or loses. Then we have to look at your come betting, again you are locking yourself into a bet that can't be taking down. Basically every come bet you make is just one more pass-line bet!
Everybody that Is on this forum should know by now that most shooters never get past 4 rollers of the dice.

So you bet the pass-line take your full odds when you are playing, after the shooters first roll; the shooter established his point, then you put out one or two come bets so you add two more rolls to the roll count!
Guess what the next roll may be, that's right the 7 out! You lose sorry to tell you this sucker.
That is what all the casinos want to see, they got you to bet more money on the so-called free odds bet, that is not free, and you are paying for it with the pass-line bet that they are locking you into it.

One more thing to think about the next time you belly up to a craps table that has a fire bet on it or any other bonus bet on it, why does the casino make you have a pass-line bet to make a fire bet, or any other stupid bet that you want to make, could it be that they are just greedy, they sucked you into that bet, why not just one more bad bet and make you bet the pass-line bet too.
Do you really think if the pass-line bet was such a good bet they would be forcing you into making that bet too, when they already have about a 25% advantage on you when you made the fire bet? Do you think that they would want to dilute the sucker bet they got you to make, by forcing you into betting the pass-line bet, which every book out there says is the best bet in the house, your wrong if you are thinking that!

Sorry Alan, for using your name but you are one of the few that understand what a bad bet the so-called free odds bet is, or just how bad a craps game is to play, without understanding all the bets on the table and why the casinos want you to bet on them!

Quote: boymimbo

I'd like to see someone do a WinCraps simulation with a loss limit. For example, set me up with a $5 table, max odds, two come bets, max odds, and a $1,000 session.
...
I maintain that the session bankroll makes the distribution of winners skew to the left side of variance.

You don't need a simulation (well, others might to believe it), this is true.

The loss limit does change the distribution of outcomes. The variance skews to the left, with more -ve results. However, you eliminate the really large -ve results, replacing them with more at the loss limit. Paradoxically, your expectation is actually higher (!) compared to just 150 rolls. It's just like a loss rebate, you have to hit your loss limit to experience the expectation benefit, which arises from not playing anymore! Weird.

EDIT: reading superrick's new post: whaaat?

Quote: odiousgambit

100x, I'd have to say you seem to be touting a session bankroll. If you find a session bankroll also sufficient for your overall bankroll, you have been quite lucky at craps.

It's good to hear from someone who has been winning!

never gave a thought at overall bankroll?

if i dont have enough for the session, then i dont play till i have MORE than enough for the session.
dont have enough = less than 1yr expenses in the bank.

and reading all the comments here, i guess i've been lucky.
playing craps everyweek at Md Live from Aug-Nov, I've had a few +/- $1000 days on a $1000 bankroll.
I'm currently break-even.

plan to go back this weekend. they're giving me $75 freeplay in addition to the standard $20.
gives me a chance to look for that Castle slot machine that guarentees to win a jackpot within X freeplays.

Quote: teddys

I was retarded to throw that kind of money on the felt .

Yup. You had no edge, this was bound to happen. Had
to happen. You can't recover your BR, you have no choice
but to move on to something else. You're a very bright
guy, deep down none of this surprises you. If you don't
have an edge that lets you profit every week, Vegas has
two words for you: Hello! and Goodbye....

(my advice is to hit those radio show geeks up for
your appearance, a couple hundred anyway)

Quote: superrick

Like everybody else sorry to hear that you are losing at playing craps. Now everybody on this forum can jump all over me and I'll throw Alan under the bus too, because you have been making the worst bets on the table. Just like Alan, I've been trying to get players to wake-up to the fact that the pass-line bet with full odds is nothing more then a sucker bet.

Why would you feel "sorry?"

I don't; it's gambling.

He's a big boy, with his eyes wide open.

Superrick, your little rant against the line w/odds bet shows your loyalty to John Patrick.

That is the same thing JP tells any who read his books and who, like you, post regularly on his board.

Patrick says it is a rotten bet.

He says a lot of other stupid sh*t, too.

FWIW, it is NOT a bad bet, in my opinion, although I personally prefer to place six and eight.

Quote: superrick

Everybody that Is on this forum should know by now that most shooters never get past 4 rollers of the dice.

You might want to take another look at basic math before coming up with your expert theories. On average the shooter will roll a 7 once every six rolls, and some of these will be 7 winners. To say that most shooters only roll 4 times has no mathematical basis.

Personally, I like to just BUY the 4 for $30 and let it hit....if you don't work it on the come-out, then your exposure to 7's goes down (less rolls counting towards a desicion, while still having it on the felt couting towards comps)
Also, for every 1 hit it pays double (of course, dropping $1), so if it hits 2x per 1 7-out (as it should) then you're golden...now, when it hits more frequently, you rake in the cash...

deleted

For a website that is supposed to cater to math followers, what is so hard to understand that craps is a negative expectation game and that you are destined to lose? Of course there will be some winners but even the winners are doomed to lose as they keep playing.

And this talk about betting on variance? Well sure... someone will win the lottery drawing.

Craps is nothing more than a lottery, except on a smaller scale. But unfortunately except for the Fire Bet there is no "big jackpot" in a game of craps that can turn you into a long term winner.

In the lottery, that $100+ million just might. LOL

I will say it again: there is no math system, no betting scheme, no betting plan that can turn you into a winner. The only way to beat the game is to change the distribution of the dice. Sure, you might get "lucky" along the way... but you will lose.

For someone who mocks the math followers, you don't seem to understand the math very well.

There is no WILL about it. Your just more and more likely to lose as time goes on.

So Ted, when the Wiz says you've been eating and
staying in Vegas for free the last 4 months, its not
true at all. In fact, it sounds like you overpaid for
the hotels and meals. Or is it a wash, maybe you
broke even.

Quote: EvenBob

So Ted, when the Wiz says you've been eating and
staying in Vegas for free the last 4 months, its not
true at all. In fact, it sounds like you overpaid for
the hotels and meals. Or is it a wash, maybe you
broke even.

how did he accomplish free room/meals EVERYDAY for 4months straight?
link to thread?

The average length of a shooter's roll once a point is established is (36/9*6/24+36/10*8/24+36/11*10/24) = 3.563636 rolls and the odds of making a point is .406061. The actual length to resolve a first point is 4.0636 rolls. That's because there might be a streak of craps and 7s (odds 1/3). It takes 0.5 rolls on average to establish a point (1/3^n -> .5)

The average length therefore of a roll per shooter is about 6.85 rolls/shooter.

Quote: 100xOdds

how did he accomplish free room/meals EVERYDAY for 4months straight?
link to thread?

Thats what he'll be discussing on the radio show tomorrow,
how he's lived for free in Vegas for the last 4 months.

Quote: superrick

Sorry Alan, for using your name but you are one of the few that understand what a bad bet the so-called free odds bet is, or just how bad a craps game is to play, without understanding all the bets on the table and why the casinos want you to bet on them!

What makes the free odds bad -- and it is not necessarily the worst bet on the table -- is that the house is more likely to win it every time.

Free odds on the four and ten are worse bets than free odds on the six and eight (for right way shooters). Because you are less likely to win the bets on the 4 and ten than the 6 and 8. It means diddly squat if the free odds bet are paid at true odds if you don't win the damn bet.

If the casinos thought for a moment that you could come out ahead with odds betting they wouldn't offer odds betting.

And why don't all casinos offer 1,000X odds? Because the fact is, the average odds bet in Vegas is only double odds, so why bother with anything else such as 100x odds or 1000x odds?

Little casinos offering 100x odds and 1000x odds don't seem to be going out of business, are they?

I don't get the calculation. On a 4 and 10, you win 2x units 1/3 of the time and lose 1x units 2/3s of the time. (1/3*2 - 2/3) = 0. Free odds.

Or on all the points, the odds of winning a point is .40606 paying on average 0 units. The issue is bankroll and variance. Because points are hit much less than 50% of the time, there is a much higher likelihood of long streaks of hitting no points and draining one's bankroll.

It's startling how much bad information and beliefs are on this board which is supposed to be about smart gambling.

Quote: AlanMendelson

What makes the free odds bad -- and it is not necessarily the worst bet on the table -- is that the house is more likely to win it every time.

Free odds on the four and ten are worse bets than free odds on the six and eight (for right way shooters). Because you are less likely to win the bets on the 4 and ten than the 6 and 8. It means diddly squat if the free odds bet are paid at true odds if you don't win the damn bet.

Free odds on the four and ten are actually a "better deal" than the other odds bets. Craps is a negative expectation game and everyone knows it. So the only reason to play is for entertainment. What provides entertainment on a negative game? It's variance. In the gambling, you are paying for variance. The cost is the house edge. That's why you can win even money on the pass line, and it costs a little over 1 percent. But you can win 35 to 1 on the roulette wheel, but it costs 5.26 percent. And you can win 1 million to 1 on the lottery, but it costs 50 percent in house edge.

Free odds bets are considered a good deal because they provide free variance with zero cost. The fact that you are 2/3 likely to lose your odds bet on the four or ten is EXACTLY outweighed by the fact that it pays 2 to 1. That's how odds work.

I suspect that if there were a game where you could bet $1 to win $999 on a truly 1 in 1000 chance, that would be the most popular game in the casino. But it wouldn't show any profit for the house.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And why don't all casinos offer 1,000X odds? Because the fact is, the average odds bet in Vegas is only double odds, so why bother with anything else such as 100x odds or 1000x odds?

There's a lot of reasons casinos don't offer 1000x odds. It all boils down to the fact that it would be bad for profits. Casinos have fixed and variable costs like dealers, electricity, security, insurance, logistics, etc, etc, that are not at all related to the math of the games they offer. If they were to offer 1000x odds, these costs would go up and the revenue would not.

Finally, let me say this about using the odds bet in relation to your flat bet:

FIRST, figure out exactly how much you want to bet, per roll. THEN, get as much as that into odds bets as possible. That's the only way the odds are going to reduce your house edge W/R/T your total action.

If you bet $10 flat with $10 odds, or bet $10 flat with $1000 odds, your expected loss is exactly the same, to the penny. The key is never to bet more than you have to on the line.

Sorry to hear about your losses. I have enjoyed reading about your lifestyle and still look forward to you on the Wizards show.

So now that you know what you did wrong from a bet size to bankroll standpoint, do you think you will try it again with what you have learned?

Quote: sodawater

FIRST, figure out exactly how much you want to bet, per roll. THEN, get as much as that into odds bets as possible. That's the only way the odds are going to reduce your house edge W/R/T your total action.

THIS. If you have a small bankroll, but have $75 on the table with 3 $5 come bets and x4 odds behind, you are a $75 better, regardless of the cost being around a 15c.

The variance works both ways, and the casino does not win any more because of your fixed bankroll, but it does get you playing more action and more comfortable with money spread across the table.

Quote: 100xOdds

how did he accomplish free room/meals EVERYDAY for 4months straight?
link to thread?

He moved a LOT. Like a nomadic AP, shuffling from the Strip to Downtown to the outskirts of town, toting his belongings with him all the while. And on the bus system, no less.

Presumably he didn't have a wife and kids in tow?

I hate when that happens!

That doesn't seem like too big a stretch to me, as long as you're playing in the right places and don't have particularly high standards (not staying at the Cosmo, for instance...). Me and my mother hit Vegas together and, as of the mailings I have up to yesterday, we have enough days to book through the end of April, excluding 3 weekend days and one weird anomaly in February I can't figure out why most places have blacked out. Food comps, adequate for 2 people for the duration, are included in about a quarter of them and if I'm on Fremont, I can easily pick up enough comps for food for two in a day. Admittedly, pulling freebies from two people probably makes it a lot easier though. If I cashed in saved up comp dollars, I might be able to get those gaps filled in.

She's pretty much exclusively 5$ BJ/UTH, I'm 5$ craps/machine craps and penny slots that have a high (if not positive) EV.

Quote: Venthus

one weird anomaly in February

Well I'm intrigued...Super Bowl? Valentines Day? President's Day?

Quote: rdw4potus

Well I'm intrigued...Super Bowl? Valentines Day? President's Day?

The patch from Valentine's to President's is the rough patch that I had to dance around to fit as best I could. I actually have a mailer specifically inviting me down for the Superbowl. Never did any sports bets or indicated ANY interest in sporting events so it seemed like an interesting time to invite me down. I'd've thought it was a premium time slot.