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AlanMendelson
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January 11th, 2013 at 1:37:13 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

I'm not disagreeing with you - the edge will most likely catch up with me, and everyone. But there are lifetime winners out there that have played more than me - they're just rare. Preaching that everyone, 100% of everyone who plays, will lose, is just incorrect.



Well you're right. Someone does win megabucks. But I wouldn't risk my retirement fund on it.
Ayecarumba
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January 11th, 2013 at 1:47:40 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Well you're right. Someone does win megabucks. But I wouldn't risk my retirement fund on it.



For what it's worth, I agree with you Alan. Even the rare winner of a longshot jackpot like Megabucks has a good chance to lose it all if they don't stop playing. Same with craps winners. Trying to successfully Martingale for your whole craps career? Not going to happen. Lack of bankroll will catch even the highest of rollers. This is why the vast majority of whales play Blackjack, a game they hope to have an edge on by counting. I have only heard of one whale who played craps, and even then, not all the time.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
GH
GH
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January 11th, 2013 at 1:58:40 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

For what it's worth, I agree with you Alan. Even the rare winner of a longshot jackpot like Megabucks has a good chance to lose it all if they don't stop playing. Same with craps winners. Trying to successfully Martingale for your whole craps career? Not going to happen. Lack of bankroll will catch even the highest of rollers. This is why the vast majority of whales play Blackjack, a game they hope to have an edge on by counting. I have only heard of one whale who played craps, and even then, not all the time.


I seem to recall the last Megabucks winner did it entirely using freeplay.
thecesspit
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January 11th, 2013 at 2:21:42 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Well you're right. Someone does win megabucks. But I wouldn't risk my retirement fund on it.



The difference between saying "this WILL happen" and "this is likely to happen", and estimating the likelihood of that something. Even it being more likely than not doesn't tell us anything much in and of itself.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
RaleighCraps
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January 11th, 2013 at 2:26:41 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

...
In other words, this has been said B4, and many will just never agree,
A 1,000 roll session 10 months ago, another 9 months ago, another 8 months ago... and another last month for the last 10 months.

You have just finished one, 10,000 roll session.
Yep. It don't feel like it, but that is exactly what just happened.



Yes, I agree with you 100% that whether you play your life session at one time, or spread across many years, does not alter the math. Although 1000 rolls would be about a 12 hour session, and I doubt you would do that too many times. :-)
But I already have a good idea what my life session end result is going to be (and I still wish to be in denial <g>).
What I am more interested in, is what can my NEXT session look like. So I chose to run 1,000 simulations of my next session. Will my buy in last for 6 hours, or 15 minutes? Out of 1,000 chances, can I make 5,000 in any of them? etc.

Quote: 7craps

...
But, your sim methods are good. Just do not run one or two sessions with the same parameters, you and many others may get a false picture of what to expect from the many possible outcomes.


To me that is understood, but it is a fair point to make because I suppose others may not understand that. Yes, I am running very small samples,and just because I see great results at times, doesn't mean I will ever see that result in real life. One of the scenarios where I make a big bet and then regress it to play solely on the house money has actually ended with a positive mean. Meaning on average, I won money EVERY game. I have done that a dozen times. I KNOW that is an anomaly that I am not likely to ever see in real life. But the results are meaningful as I compare those results to other results with the same parameters, to understand how different betting schemes behave, in relation to each other.

Quote: 7craps

...
I just tossed a fair coin 10 times and got 6 heads.
Does that mean the real probability of Heads IS 60%.
I just did it again. This time I got 7 heads.
I did it one more time, got that same 6 heads.
So then, in a coin toss from my 3 simulations I say heads shows about 60% of the time.

A larger Sample size could give me more results and averages that are closer to reality
for many experiments.
But I am now bored flipping a coin.



My point is why even go through flipping it a million times. We all already know how it is going to come out.
BUT, do you know how the next 10 flips are going to come out? Pretty small sample. Anything could happen. Could this be the time it goes 10-0, instead of 5-5?
This is the way we play craps in real life. Short micro bursts, where anything can happen for that one game. And yep, add all those games together at the end of 30 years, and just like the million coin flips, we already know where we are likely to fall.
But if we play the micro burst craps game by putting 25% of our buy in on the table on the fire bet each roll, we don't have to guess how that is going to turn out for us. Very short sessions, and not much to smile about.


Quote: 7craps

...
WinCraps Pro in Beta test this week. Nice.
It tracks way more data, that slows down the simulation speed.



Can't wait for the autobet file to complete. Then I can run 8 different betting schemes all against each other at the same time, and see how they each fare, against the same rolls of the dice. REAL world baby, just as if you and I were standing next to each other at Main Street Station and putting our money down at the same time. Exact same throws, one walks away up 3 grand, another walks away even, and one guy leaves half way through, busted out. All playing the same game, same throw, same time.

WHAT A GAME !
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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January 11th, 2013 at 2:59:35 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Can't wait for the autobet file to complete. Then I can run 8 different betting schemes all against each other at the same time, and see how they each fare, against the same rolls of the dice. REAL world baby, just as if you and I were standing next to each other at Main Street Station and putting our money down at the same time.


And drinking tasty tasty microbrews...
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
RaleighCraps
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January 11th, 2013 at 3:04:40 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights


And drinking tasty tasty microbrews...



Jack Daniels makes my microbrew of choice when playing craps, metered very slowly I might add.

Tipsy craps play makes for smaller bankrolls.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
teddys
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January 11th, 2013 at 6:26:26 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Quote: RaleighCraps

Can't wait for the autobet file to complete. Then I can run 8 different betting schemes all against each other at the same time, and see how they each fare, against the same rolls of the dice. REAL world baby, just as if you and I were standing next to each other at Main Street Station and putting our money down at the same time.


And drinking tasty tasty microbrews...

And spilling it on other peoples' shoes . . . LOL :) !
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Ahigh
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January 11th, 2013 at 6:42:46 PM permalink
I have this functionality (what you refer to as autobet) in my software and it operates in real time as I enter roll data.

I can alter the betting strategy's parameters as I got along as well and back-test.

When you visit next time, you should come by and check out my setup.

Maybe I will make a you tube video to explain how it works.
aahigh.com
teddys
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January 11th, 2013 at 6:52:31 PM permalink
I just realized I've completely disregard the maxim that I've put in my signature with this thread.

Oy, what would Mr. Kipling say...?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
100xOdds
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January 13th, 2013 at 8:12:49 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

100x, I'd have to say you seem to be touting a session bankroll. If you find a session bankroll also sufficient for your overall bankroll, you have been quite lucky at craps.

It's good to hear from someone who has been winning!



went over my records. Had a 4week straight losing period last year:
-500, -850, -450, -1750
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
thefish2010
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January 20th, 2013 at 11:41:45 AM permalink
Losing time after time can really mess with your head. In 2012 I went roughly 50 sessions with only 2 winning sessions. That made for a negative outlook on gambling in general for a while. Whenever I experience something like this, I remember that Vegas exists because the math always bears itself out. You won't win at craps, but the odds will eventually play themselves out.

That said, you should try to play games where you have an advantage - you will eventually lose every dollar you choose to bet at craps.
Ahigh
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January 20th, 2013 at 3:20:12 PM permalink
Last come is a winner!
aahigh.com
teddys
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January 21st, 2013 at 9:39:07 AM permalink
I'm sitting here in my bed beset with almost crippling depression because of these losses. It really came to a head this week when I tried studying for the bar exam, and had to put a bunch of things on credit cards that I could have paid cash for. I JUST CAN'T BELIEVE I BLEW THROUGH $10,000+. I ground and ground at video poker for years and kept track of every dollar meticulously -- all that "work," gone.

Craps has absolutely destroyed me and left me curled up and crying like a newborn baby. For the life of me I can't understand what made me do this or why I did what I did. It's hard to sleep nights. I know I have to get over it and start looking into the future, but damn, it's hard to take.

Considering professional counseling--at least I need a drug that will help me sleep. Got about 4 hours of sleep in the last 5 nights.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
kmumf
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January 21st, 2013 at 9:50:04 AM permalink
Sometimes going into your darkest place inside make you come out a better person in the long run. I did for me there was a year where I was someone I did not know or want to be. Came out of it alive and it made me a much better person today.

Fight trough it. Good luck
superrick
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January 21st, 2013 at 10:00:53 AM permalink
Teddys
You should go back out with your buddy Ahigh he’s got his bankroll back playing at Jokers Wild, after all it’s only a $1 table it shouldn’t take that long to make up your $10,000 loss there, Ahigh has done a $2000, bankroll rebuilding there, in a few weeks!!!!!!!!!!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
CrapsForever
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January 21st, 2013 at 10:07:23 AM permalink
The Internet is a COLD place where most people don't recognize a call for help. Teddys, by responses you receive on this thread; you should begin to realize the people that are truly in your corner and the ones who don't give two bits about you.

You know where I stand....the rest of you not willing to support Teddys by giving helpful advice but choose to stand on your soapbox and chastise a man when he's down can KICK ROCKS!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
GH
GH
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January 21st, 2013 at 10:19:12 AM permalink
Would it be considered condescending if I posted this phone number, (800) 522-4700 -- NV Council On Problem Gambling?
teddys
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January 21st, 2013 at 10:22:23 AM permalink
Quote: GH

Would it be considered condescending if I posted this phone number, (800) 522-4700 -- NV Council On Problem Gambling?

Called it and they actually connected me to the wrong state (phone is still registered in Ohio). Got through to Nevada and they were somewhat, though not very, helpful. I am going to call and schedule an appointment with a counselor.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
rudeboyoi
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January 21st, 2013 at 11:01:58 AM permalink
i suggest taking a trip out to red rock canyon/calico basin to get your mind off everything.
MrV
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January 21st, 2013 at 11:18:26 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

I'm sitting here in my bed beset with almost crippling depression because of these losses. It really came to a head this week when I tried studying for the bar exam...Craps has absolutely destroyed me and left me curled up and crying like a newborn baby. For the life of me I can't understand what made me do this or why I did what I did.



While I don't claim to have paid attention to your earlier posts outlining your recent history, I assume you went to law school outside of Nevada?

If so, why did you choose to come to Las Vegas BEFORE passing the bar exam?

Immediately after graduation you should have signed up for and taken a bar exam prep course, e.g. BARBRI.

I certainly hope that you at least have acquired the written materials from a bar review course and that you are studying them now: although that would seem futile if you are as depressed as you claim.

Get your ass OUT of Las Vegas if practical: the temptation will be too strong to gamble otherwise, and your ONLY PRIORITY is preparing for and passing the bar.

Delete the bookmark to this board, and all such boards, NOW.

Quit f*cking around and get to work.

*so says the smug "Dutch Uncle"*
"What, me worry?"
EvenBob
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January 21st, 2013 at 1:01:39 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

I'm sitting here in my bed beset with almost crippling depression because of these losses. .



Ted, you're experiencing classic signs of addiction.
Not understanding why you behave like you do, and
experiencing debilitating depression over your actions.
This usually sends the addict even farther into his
addiction. The fact that you're expressing your feelings
on a very public forum is an indication that you're ready
for some kind of professional help.

You need get into a group situation like they have at
Gamblers Anon, and express yourself to them. This
really works in the short term to make you feel
better. You won't regret doing it. I bet a place like Vegas
has meetings somewhere every day of the week.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
midwestgb
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January 21st, 2013 at 1:18:17 PM permalink
Ted,

You are a very talented guy and you are doing the right thing by getting some counselling and continuing to evaluate your life priorities.

Whenever I get the urge to gamble and something tells me to stay out of the casino, I find the nearest clothes store and go shopping. I basically hate to shop, and I spend very little or nothing on such trips. If I do buy something, I leave the place thinking about all the money I just saved... ;-)

Stay the course.
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2013 at 1:45:01 PM permalink
Besides a counselor, you need to see a shrink for some meds. Once a brain starts causes depression, it tends to keep doing so.
Don't want to hear from the religious zealots, OK But we are all nothing but a bunch of chemicals. That's why drugs work.

As a chief shop steward, I saw lots of lives and families destroyed by addiction. And gambling is as tough if not tougher to beat than drugs. On a personal level, I had to sign for ECT treatments for the love of my life, Josie.

It will get better, but YOU are the one who has to make it so.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2013 at 1:54:05 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

While I don't claim to have paid attention to your earlier posts outlining your recent history, I assume you went to law school outside of Nevada?

If so, why did you choose to come to Las Vegas BEFORE passing the bar exam?

Immediately after graduation you should have signed up for and taken a bar exam prep course, e.g. BARBRI.

I certainly hope that you at least have acquired the written materials from a bar review course and that you are studying them now: although that would seem futile if you are as depressed as you claim.

Get your ass OUT of Las Vegas if practical: the temptation will be too strong to gamble otherwise, and your ONLY PRIORITY is preparing for and passing the bar.

Delete the bookmark to this board, and all such boards, NOW.

Quit f*cking around and get to work.

*so says the smug "Dutch Uncle"*




Know where you are coming from MR. V. Everytime I tried that approach, the person would agree with me, but nothing changed.

Even started an office pool for a young lady, mid 20's battling drugs. Had 30 days on it and showed her no one bought a square
past 20 days. She cried, called her Mom back home, and made an appointment with the drug counselor. 14 days was the winner. SIGH !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
MrV
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January 21st, 2013 at 2:14:00 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Know where you are coming from MR. V. Everytime I tried that approach, the person would agree with me, but nothing changed. Even started an office pool for a young lady, mid 20's battling drugs. Had 30 days on it and showed her no one bought a square past 20 days. She cried, called her Mom back home, and made an appointment with the drug counselor. 14 days was the winner. SIGH !



The sad reality is that some of us can pull it off while others crash and burn.
"What, me worry?"
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2013 at 2:36:07 PM permalink
Gambling can created the same happy chemicals in the brain that drugs and/or meds can. Sometimes meds just stop working and while Doc's tried new one I would self medicate Josie at casino's.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 21st, 2013 at 2:43:04 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Know where you are coming from MR. V. Everytime I tried that approach, the person would agree with me, but nothing changed.

Even started an office pool for a young lady, mid 20's battling drugs. Had 30 days on it and showed her no one bought a square
past 20 days. She cried, called her Mom back home, and made an appointment with the drug counselor. 14 days was the winner. SIGH !



wait.. she died on day 14?!
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
MakingBook
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January 21st, 2013 at 2:47:42 PM permalink
Teddys-
Indeed, $10k losses can be devastating, but I can promise you many of my ex-customers would be thrilled to have only lost $10k. And these guys had a much less-promising income producing ability than you. Yeah, you fk'd up; but you're single and have a bright future.

You should probably get the hell out of Vegas though.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2013 at 2:52:49 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

wait.. she died on day 14?!



14 days after I started the pool she lost her good paying job. 2 weeks later security was tightened on the building. Her boss was
a short mexican and someone spray painted on the wall outside his office a picture of a stick figure sitting on a chair. His feet did not go halfway to the floor. LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2013 at 2:54:43 PM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

Teddys-
Indeed, $10k losses can be devastating, but I can promise you many of my ex-customers would be thrilled to have only lost $10k. And these guys had a much less-promising income producing ability than you. Yeah, you fk'd up; but you're single and have a bright future.

You should probably get the hell out of Vegas though.



Thomas Wolfe was wrong. You CAN go home again ! ! !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
tringlomane
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January 21st, 2013 at 3:07:17 PM permalink
It really sucks that you're going through this Teddy. Whatever you do, don't let depression/insomnia/gambling issues interfere with your job...you still have that law job right? I unfortunately know to never do that again from personal experience. :(
Ahigh
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January 21st, 2013 at 4:10:47 PM permalink
Hey, bud. I enjoyed watching you make those mondo sized bets while it lasted, and I know you enjoyed it too. You got something out of it.

Was it worth $10,000? Maybe, maybe not! The future has yet to unfold.

But the only way you can turn that experience into $10,000 worth of value is to learn from it.

It doesn't have to be an expensive lesson if you can learn enough from it to make much more money in the next few months!

I had a HUGE WINDFALL (not gambling related .. from investments and working hard) after I blew out my bankroll. Consider that you are riding the same roller coaster as I was, and just bide your time and keep yourself busy.

When I was where you are now, I was watching you win really big at the Fiesta and Sams and calling you the Chameleon, and I was building a dice throwing machine.

Think back on that and think about what I was doing at that time.

I think I was gambling $1 as if it were $100!!

I just dusting myself off at this point and feeling normal, but more important than what to do now is what are you going to do when you get back to $10,000? I hope not the same thing all over again!

One other thing to consider is that you have already had more lifetime wins than most people will ever have in their life. Look on the bright side! You have had plenty of success so don't be too hard on yourself for paths that were not chosen.
aahigh.com
Mission146
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January 21st, 2013 at 5:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

I'm sitting here in my bed beset with almost crippling depression because of these losses. It really came to a head this week when I tried studying for the bar exam, and had to put a bunch of things on credit cards that I could have paid cash for. I JUST CAN'T BELIEVE I BLEW THROUGH $10,000+. I ground and ground at video poker for years and kept track of every dollar meticulously -- all that "work," gone.

Craps has absolutely destroyed me and left me curled up and crying like a newborn baby. For the life of me I can't understand what made me do this or why I did what I did. It's hard to sleep nights. I know I have to get over it and start looking into the future, but damn, it's hard to take.

Considering professional counseling--at least I need a drug that will help me sleep. Got about 4 hours of sleep in the last 5 nights.



Teddys,

Okay...

So, I consider you a friend and genuinely one of the nicest fellas on here, so if this starts to sound preachy or anything like that, just stop reading and call me an asshole. I'll let the Statler and Waldorf Standard insult go on a one-time basis for the purpose of calling me an asshole on this one occasion only.

This is a point that you have reached where you must decide whether or not you want to live in a fantasy world or believe in mathematical facts. I can't help but be reminded of a really good friend of mine who was having a serious gambling problem annd an event that took place with him:

I went to his house one day and he was talking to me about how he liked to gamble, how he did not know that I also like to gamble is beyond me, but he was honestly not aware of that...I guess it just never came up. (We're, "Football Friends," as I like to call it)

Anyway, we get to talking about that and he asks me whether or not I want to go to the casino with him. There will be some dialogue in a minute, but I'm going to avoid meaningless dialogue by stating that he basically wanted to try to turn $150 into at least $550 because he couldn't make the rent that month. The guy lives alone and makes about 125% of what I do...

Me: Okay, let's go.

Him: Sweet, let me grab my wallet.

Me: No, you won't be needing that, come to my car immediately.

Him: (Nervously)...Okay


We get to the casino and I ask him to take me to the machines that he likes to play, he marches me straight to the, "High-Roller," room of $1.00/$5.00 slots, which are the highest denomination at Wheeling Island Racetrack and Casino.

Him: (Pointing at a row of $5.00 machines) Pretty much any of these.

I cocked my head at the machines and began looking on top of them and on the sides, I circled the row of $5.00 machines as a shark might circle its prey.

Me: Where's the Progressive Meter?

Him: It's not a Progressive machine.

Me: Oh, I see, well, you're going to lose...but you firmly believe you can win...I'd never set foot in this building again, if I were you.


The problem that he had, Teddy, is the same problem that you seem to have. You think that you can win or, "Make a comeback," against a negative expectation game. You actually believe that, if you play long enough, you should approach the EV of the game, which, in your case, now means winning.

So, you look at bankroll requirements, Variance, Standard Deviation and RoR which are all very useful tools in determining how you should do in the long run, or in any individual session...

7Craps, for one example, runs some excellent simulations and generally does a helluva job posting his results and making observations. I especially love the new addition to his signature.

The thing, Teddy, that you must realize about the simulations is that they don't represent real people, they are real people. The simulations are people walking/playing in the Silverton, MGM Grand, Excalibur, El Cortez etc. etc. etc. casino as we speak. They're making the bets, some of them are ahead...some of them are behind...some of them are two SD to the right, some are two SD to the left and there's probably a handful exactly where they probabilistically should be.

Long-Term Gambler's Fallacy

How's that for a term? I think I could put that on a T-Shirt.

Okay...

So, with session bankroll of x betting 1,000 rolls, you have a 60% chance of profit betting in such-and-such a fashion with a 10% RoR...or whatever.

I think you're a victim of the Long-Term Gambler's Fallacy which is the same as the Gambler's Fallacy that caused the Martingale System to come into existence, and states, if I play enough sessions, I must have a profitable session eventually.

You're surprised to lose, you're surprised to have lost $10,000 making x, y and z bets and pressing with a and b while using c, d and e strategies of bankroll management.

All that means is that you are a real person. You exist both physically and in the simulation...and while you may be a worst-case scenario (or something close to it) with your losing streak, the thing is, someone has to be.

Let's Look at KewlJ

KewlJ had a recent post in which he stated that his worst year as an AP resulted in a profit of under 10K. I want to tell you, not that I know much about AP, but the detail and attitude that KewlJ takes towards his profession...he impresses me, at worst, as much as anyone on this Forum. Now, you look at that about and say, "Well, he did profit," but you have to consider that this dude probably makes around 20k-30k/day, on average, in bets at +EV.

Long story short, he should win while you, on the other hand, should lose.

Craps is a negative expectation game. It may sound crazy, but that should be your mantra, something that you should repeat to yourself whenever a situation arises in which you believe you are going to win. Just keep saying it to yourself:

Quote:

Craps is a negative expectation game. I should lose.



The problem is that, somewhere in your mind, you believe that you should win, or that you should approach the EV over time.

Well...yes and no.

The problem is that the money you have lost playing Craps is money lost, it's gone, it no longer factors in. Thus, if you have 10k in total losses, then to experience results of 98+% overall would actually require that you experience results of well over 100% in the short-term...in a negative expectation game.

It's like those simulations with the probability of hitting $15,000 with x betting strategy and a starting bankroll of $10,000. What we sometimes forget viewing those results is the player whose session amount (at some point) drops to $5,000 is far less likely to hit that $15,000 then the guy starting with $10,000.

Here's a page...

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/

That you've looked at before.

Look at the House Edge on all of those bets, I don't see any negatives anywhere. I see some 0.00%, which of course require a bet with a positive edge...for the House...to be able to make at the first place.

Expect to Lose

That's what I usually do. It's a negative expectation game.

I occasionally play Poker in which I am at an inherent advantage by being a better-than-average player, and I often play slots at a +ER, but I understand that the +ER should as opposed to will manifest in the long-term.

I also play slots at -ER, Craps, Roulette and Video Keno (which I absolutely love and have no idea why) and I expect to lose. It is that expectation that separates a dude having fun from an addict.

Addicts expect to, "Win," or, "Recover," or what have you.

The difference between you and I, right now (and I mean you no offense) is where I finish up a losing Video Keno session, purse my lips, then smile and say, "Maybe next time," you are saying, "Damnit, I can't believe this happened again."

I play a negative expectation game and expect to lose. I do not expect to recover my losses from those games. You do.

That, not the gambling, needs to stop immediately. However, some people cannot stop that mentality without stopping the gambling, so figure out where you are and act accordingly.

Remember that there is never anything to be ashamed about. Some really good and intelligent people have had this problem, so you're not alone. I'm here if you ever want to talk, and if you're ever in Ohio again, we'll go grab a bite, or you're welcome in my house if you want a homecooked (vegetarian) dinner, whichever you prefer. I just made some homemade Buckeyes earlier today and they are f***ing outstanding!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Calder
Calder
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January 21st, 2013 at 7:48:04 PM permalink
You're smart enough to recognize you might have a problem, but it's just as important that you get help in following though with the solution.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 23rd, 2013 at 10:07:17 PM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

Teddys-
Indeed, $10k losses can be devastating, but I can promise you many of my ex-customers would be thrilled to have only lost $10k. And these guys had a much less-promising income producing ability than you. Yeah, you fk'd up; but you're single and have a bright future.

You should probably get the hell out of Vegas though.



I think that the actual amount is less important than its value to you. If you turn into a successful lawyer, $10k will be no big deal. I recently lost $10k in a weekend and I was ok with it. Mentally I was ok with it because I knew that it was on the extreme negative variance end of things (ie, with the amounts that I bet, a result like that is going to happen only once in a blue moon, and I will have weekends that are significantly above expectation too) and financially I could afford it, so I didn't let it get to me,
sodawater
sodawater
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January 23rd, 2013 at 10:52:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146



he basically wanted to try to turn $150 into at least $550 because he couldn't make the rent that month.



well if the consequences of his not making rent were way worse than losing that $150, I'd say he made a good decision to try to run it into rent money.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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January 24th, 2013 at 2:51:24 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You need get into a group situation like they have at
Gamblers Anon... I bet a place like Vegas
has meetings somewhere every day of the week.



Excuse me for pointing out the irony.

My cousin not so many years ago went through more than $60K making illegal sports bets through bookies and was threatened with physical harm when he couldn't pay up. My Aunt bailed him out this one last time and he went to GA. Today, words such as "bet" are stricken from his vocabulary. If I happen to say to him, "I bet the rain won't let up for another hour" he will respond "I don't bet."

There is no "half way" with GA, I learned. It's either "all out" or nothing.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 24th, 2013 at 4:14:12 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

well if the consequences of his not making rent were way worse than losing that $150, I'd say he made a good decision to try to run it into rent money.



You could make that argument, except he very simply could have cash-advanced $400 off of one of his credit cards and added that to the $150 to pay the rent.

Except his credit cards were already maxed out, for having been cash advanced at the casino...with money that was lost.

The reason that he only had $150 leftover for that month to begin with also had to do with gambling...

I do see your point, though. I think he ended up going to a cash advance place, but I'm not sure. In any event, advancing $400 and paying the interest on that is definitely better than advancing $550 and paying the interest on that, I would imagine.

Besides, even if he had ran it up to $550, who is to say that would have stopped him? Maybe he decides that while his spins are going well, he should change his win goal as he has another bill or two he would like to get paid...

He no longer gambles, in any event.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
superrick
superrick
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January 24th, 2013 at 8:40:38 AM permalink
Teddys

We haven’t heard from you in a while, we know that you are busy with your Bar Exam. So did you find help and are you staying out of the casinos?

When you first posted about blowing out your bankroll, it sounded like it wasn’t no big deal, the way you and Ahigh was carrying on about it.
You get a different perspective of what casinos do when you live in some place like Vegas.

For some players like Ahigh its all about the fun of the game, risking their money to see if they can beat the casinos at their own game. I personally have never seen the fun in risking money playing a negative game. You need to know as soon as you walk into a casino that they only reason they are there is to take your money the easy way. They know every trick in the book to do just that, casinos are set up to play on all your sensory faculties! When playing craps they have the drink girls who’s job it is to get you drunk, then there the screaming players that make you feel like nobody can do anything wrong, if there is a hot roll going on. You use to have all the slot machines making all kind of noise when someone hit a jackpot.

Now days you have to other players in the pit area screaming when they hit a black jack or something like that, but it’s not like the old days when you stood a chance of winning anything, casinos and the corporations that run them have honed their skills over the years on how they go about taking your money, the slot machine now play off with a lot of small wins, that they know the players well keep putting their wins back into the machine hoping for that big win.

They made BJ a joke, they do everything they can to stop anybody that is on a roll on the craps tables, but the one thing they do best is to make someone that is losing feel good when they are doing it. The players are so rapped up in that good time feeling, they forget about losing their money, until it’s all over with!

The one thing I can say to do if you didn’t find help already is to read Whale Hunt In the Desert By Deke Castleman The story of superhost Steve Cyr! You can pick it up in any of the libraries around town. That book should open your eyes to why casinos are on the face of this earth and what they do to naïve players.

I’ve seen way to many players lose everything they own, because they couldn’t control their gambling, most of them have all moved away from Vegas, I have one of my craps playing buddies that is doing that right now, he start to lose and started to chase his money and now his only hope is to move out of Vegas.

The problem with living in Veags, is if you are a player most of your friends are too, unless you have different things that you do besides gambling. I’m very fortunate that we have many friends that do not gamble, so our lives do not revolve around the casinos. If I’m not playing craps in the casinos, I do not go into them for any reason by myself. I look at comps as a way for the casinos to get you into their money making machine. Everything is geared to taking your money, if you start to play anything in there.

The way I look at the casinos is everybody that comes into Vegas knows that they are going to lose so much money and that is what they are happy losing, it use to be around $600, they stay and play for two or three days then go back home to earn more money to play again, the next time they come.

If you want to call it entertainment to lose your money, so be it. If you think you have a problem stay away from the casinos, if you are spending hours in the casinos just about everyday it’s a good indication that you might have a problem.

Personally I think that you could do a lot of good writing about how you are dealing with your problem, and at the same time find some answers to your problem. I hope that you did find the help you need and if you did, please tell everybody where you found it at!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
teddys
teddys
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January 24th, 2013 at 4:59:49 PM permalink
Okay, folks, more updates from my life (which I swear is not usually this drama-filled):

I am currently unemployed.

I was fired from my job with [redacted] at 3:04 P.M. this afternoon. I did not sign a confidentiality agreement with the firm, nor do I feel like keeping them anonymous. However, I will not say anything bad about them other than the uncontroverted facts:

  • I started with the firm as a paralegal on Nov. 5, 2012. During the interview process, I made it absolutely clear that I would need to take time off for two things: (1) The Ohio Bar Exam, and (2) to move stuff from Ohio to here.
  • I requested and was granted three unpaid days off around Thanksgiving for moving activities.
  • Employees are not entitled to any paid time-off during their first 90 days of employment. Even after that period, paid time-off must be approved. Employees at the firm for less than ninety days are not entitled to paid time-off, but time off without pay may be granted with management approval.
  • On Tuesday, Jan. 22nd, I requested unpaid time-off for Friday, Jan. 25th to fly to Ohio and interview with the local bar association. This is an in-person interview and a prerequisite for sitting for the bar. It can only be scheduled for weekdays, because it is given by two practicing lawyers. I booked a red-eye flight specifically to only miss one day of work.
  • My request for time off was granted by my immediate supervisor. However, it was rejected by the managing partner, and the HR department in California.
  • I told my immediate supervisor, that if my request was not granted, I nevertheless would not be showing up for work on Friday, the 25th.
  • At 3:04 this afternoon, I was called into my immediate supervisor's office and was put on conference call with HR in California. Both my immediate supervisor and HR said I was fired. They did not give a reason for termination. I was escorted out of the office and a secretary brought my personal belongings to me in a box. I was not allowed to go back to my cubicle.
  • I was offered a severance package of a week's pay, and benefits extended until February 28th. They will send the severance package in the mail for me to sign.

Obviously, this is disconcerting, but not entirely unexpected. It is also my first time being fired from any job. I have some decisions to make. I still have to take the bar exam at the end of February. There is no reason to be in Nevada anymore, so I could theoretically just fly home, not return on the flight back, and spend my time studying there and reevaluate after taking the exam.

The other option is to fly back here, remain unemployed,yet study full-time, and then fly back to Ohio to sit for the bar and reevaluate once more. This raises the possibility of more psychological trauma like I was experiencing earlier. I'd like to think I could control myself and just study, and not gamble or be wayward, but it's hard to say . . . I'd also like to think I have a future here in Las Vegas, although of course it won't be with this firm, but in some other (better?) job . . .

Either way, the sacking was a blessing to some extent. The job was good and I enjoyed the work, but the atmosphere had its downsides and it was by no means a long-term proposition for me. Now once again I find myself on a precipice, looking out over the edge . . .
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Mission146
Mission146
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:13:30 PM permalink
It seems that there are a ton of Paralegal jobs in Ohio at this time, specifically, Columbus:

http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=Paralegal&l=Ohio&rbl=Columbus%2C+OH&jlid=8ddf8cac9ee9aa9d&start=20
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
superrick
superrick
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:23:21 PM permalink
teddys

Life has a way of taking many turns and there are a lot of bumps along the way, but you will get over them. I always look at everything as it happened for the best. I've had many things happen in my life that most people would run away from not wanting to deal with them, if you want to talk about what is happening to you now, you can PM me with your phone number, maybe I can help you out with some wisdom that I learned the hardway. The main thing for you right now is to get back to your Ohio Bar Exam! That would be my main priority, getting out of Vegas will give you a chance to clear your head, we all learn from the mistakes we make along the way.

Even though you lost your bankroll, you still have friends that you can fall back on, to help you out. Being that you are young you have a lot of things going for you, don't give up. Take what happened to you and use it to move forward in your life.
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
Buzzard
Buzzard
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Thomas Wolfe was wrong. You CAN go home again ! ! !



Seems like the thing to do ! Meant it as advice, not prophesy !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:45:36 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Okay, folks, more updates from my life (which I swear is not usually this drama-filled):

I am currently unemployed.
<snip>


Wow, that SUCKS. Seems really lame to fire someone over 1 unpaid day off, especially when you told them ahead of time. But hey, free weeks pay!
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
GH
GH
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:48:19 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Wow, that SUCKS. Seems really lame to fire someone over 1 unpaid day off, especially when you told them ahead of time. But hey, free weeks pay!


Not lame at all. Law firms are like Indian tribes; there can only be one Chief.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 24th, 2013 at 6:01:24 PM permalink
You'll know what to do when you get home to Ohio.
You'll know if you want to go back to Vega to
live. You'll just know. If you feel a huge amount
of relief to be gone from Vegas, don't go back.
You're subconscious is telling you something.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
Ahigh
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January 24th, 2013 at 6:04:35 PM permalink
I would hate to see you move, but you need to look out for your own well being first and foremost.

If it were me with what you have in your noggin', I would be wanting to go full time AP VP.
aahigh.com
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 24th, 2013 at 6:23:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



If it were me with what you have in your noggin', I would be wanting to go full time AP VP.



Hmm, a career in law or sitting in front of a
VP machine for hours a day. Gee, thats a
tough one...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MrV
MrV
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January 24th, 2013 at 6:59:54 PM permalink
There is only one right answer to your question.

If you cannot see it, well then, you have my sympathy.
"What, me worry?"
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