Optimum pressing strategy

3/4/5x odds, $5 min

in doing more spreadsheet calcs, i came across this idea:
when you hit a #, keep an amount equal to what you risked on the table as profit. use any $ above that to press.

4/10: $5flat, $15 odds.
payout = $35 on $20 risked thus press by $15 worth.
ie: Buy the 4/10 for $15 in addition to the Come bet (assuming the Vig is paid after the win)

5/9: $5flat, 20 odds.
payout= 35 on 25 risked. thus press by $10.
ie: Buy for $10

6/8: 5flat, 25odds.
payout=35 on 30 risked thus press by $5.
ie: Place for $6


I think it's a nice balance.

What do you think of my Optimum pressing strategy? Any holes in my logic?

I doubt there is anything optimal about the way I press but I go:

6/8: 30, 42, 60, 84, 120, 168, 240, 300, 420 etc
5/9: 25, 35, 50, 70, 100, 140, 200, 250, 350 etc

People are using the term "optimal" a lot in this thread. What, exactly, are you trying to optimize for?

OPTIMAL = Having a negative expectation on each bet, but overcoming that with volume of bets.

That would be pretty optimal....

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

People are using the term "optimal" a lot in this thread. What, exactly, are you trying to optimize for?

ok.. maybe i should have titled it "Balanced pressing strategy" but i cant change titles of my threads on this site :(

Quote: 100xOdds

ok.. maybe i should have titled it "Balanced pressing strategy" but i cant change titles of my threads on this site :(

What are you trying to balance?

Seriously, if you define your goals precisely then we can start answering the question of whether your strategy accomplishes its goals or not. If you throw words around without defining anything then we are not going to get anywhere.

dont press unless you know your distribution with DI, (if its even possible) if you do know then dont press more than full kelly

Quote: 100xOdds

What do you think of my Optimum pressing strategy? Any holes in my logic?

It has much to recommend it.

I like the agressive continuous press coupled to taking an ever-increasing profit on repeating numbers.

Of course, a cold / choppy table will clean your clock ...

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What are you trying to balance?

Seriously, if you define your goals precisely then we can start answering the question of whether your strategy accomplishes its goals or not. If you throw words around without defining anything then we are not going to get anywhere.

balance making $ on a good roll (hitting 8-10 #s) and on a great roll (15+ numbers).

press too hard in the beginning, you wont make any # till u hit those rare great rolls.
press too light (or not press at all) and you wont make the killing if it's a great roll.

I don't know how "optimal" this strategy is, but when it's getting close to time to wrap up my session (the wife is getting antsy to leave the casino and my fun is almost over), I will place the 6 and 8 for $6 each. After a hit, I pocket the $1 and press it to $12. Another hit, I pocket the $2 and press it to $24. If it hits again, I stop. 3 press limit.

I throw this on top of my $5 DP with odds strategy. If I can get 3 6's and 8's each and then hit the 7, which we all know is inevitable, I'll have a pretty nice win.

Like I said though, I only press late in the session going for a homerun. I usually only play DP with odds.

Quote: mwalz9

I will place the 6 and 8 for $6 each. After a hit, I pocket the $1 and press it to $12. Another hit, I pocket the $2 and press it to $24. If it hits again, I stop. 3 press limit

I always "same bet" on the 1st hit and then I start pressing on the second hit.

That way, I am paying myself first.

I am working on a pressing strategy that allows me to press very aggressively, but when I have hit a big number, take it all down, and start it over. Here is the 6 press

Bet $60 , so you are -$60

1.) 60 pays 70 , you are -$50
2.) 120 pays 140, you are -$30
3.) 240 pays 280, you are +$10
4.) 480 pays 560, you are +$150
5.) 900 pays 1050, you are +$1200
6.) 900 pays 1050,down to $120. you are +$3030
7.) 120 pays 140. rinse and repeat above.

Obviously, it takes 3 repeaters on the same number to break even, but when you get 6 repeaters, you are up big.
I am searching for some way to get big action in play, but not have all of the money still in play when the 7 out finally shows.
I am getting nice rolls, with big paydays, but seeing $2000 or more go back to the house when the roll ends, and that is money I WANT. lol

Quote: RaleighCraps

I am working on a pressing strategy that allows me to press very aggressively, but when I have hit a big number, take it all down, and start it over. Here is the 6 press

Bet $60 , so you are -$60

1.) 60 pays 70 , you are -$50
2.) 120 pays 140, you are -$30
3.) 240 pays 280, you are +$10
4.) 480 pays 560, you are +$150
5.) 900 pays 1050, you are +$1200
6.) 900 pays 1050,down to $120. you are +$3030
7.) 120 pays 140. rinse and repeat above.

Obviously, it takes 3 repeaters on the same number to break even, but when you get 6 repeaters, you are up big.
I am searching for some way to get big action in play, but not have all of the money still in play when the 7 out finally shows.
I am getting nice rolls, with big paydays, but seeing $2000 or more go back to the house when the roll ends, and that is money I WANT. lol

I think it would be very educational for you to do the other side of that list, i.e. where you are when you lose at each stage, then weight with probabilities.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: Buzzard

OPTIMAL = Having a negative expectation on each bet, but overcoming that with volume of bets.

This, of course, is impossible.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: RaleighCraps

I am working on a pressing strategy that allows me to press very aggressively, but when I have hit a big number, take it all down, and start it over. Here is the 6 press

Bet $60 , so you are -$60

1.) 60 pays 70 , you are -$50
2.) 120 pays 140, you are -$30
3.) 240 pays 280, you are +$10
4.) 480 pays 560, you are +$150
5.) 900 pays 1050, you are +$1200
6.) 900 pays 1050,down to $120. you are +$3030
7.) 120 pays 140. rinse and repeat above.

Quote: goatcabin

I think it would be very educational for you to do the other side of that list, i.e. where you are when you lose at each stage, then weight with probabilities.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

In essence, isn't that what I have already done above? I will concede that I am not treating money on the table as my money won, which many people will argue is a bad viewpoint. However, I personally prefer to measure my win/loss at the END of the roll. Money gained or lost during the roll is only the mechanism that is utilized to get to the final result.
So if you look at where I am at after a SIX has been rolled twice, I am down $30 from when the roll started, and I have a $240 bet on the table for the Place 6.

Or, are you suggesting I lay out the whole across to see where I am ?

I get to Buy the 4,5,9,10, vig on win. So I will start with $50 on each, $60 on the Place 6,8. Total = $320

Buy 4/10 pay schedule:
1.) $50 pays $98, bet goes to $100, $48 into rail, now at -$2.
2.) $100 pays $195, bet goes to $200, $95 into rail, now at +$93
3.) $200 pays $390, bet goes to $500, $90 into rail, now at +$183
4.) $500 pays $975, bet goes to $1000, $475 into rail, now at +$658
5.) $1000 pays $1950, bet goes to $2000, $950 into rail, now at +$1608
6.) $2000 pays $3900, bet goes to $100, $5800 into rail, now at +$7408
7.) $100 pays $195 , bet goes to $200...

Buy 5/9 pay schedule:
1.) $50 pays $73, bet goes to $100, $23 into rail, now at -$27
2.) $100 pays $145, bet goes to $200, $45 into rail, now at +$18
3.) $200 pays $290, bet goes to $400, $90 into rail, now at +$108
4.) $400 pays $580, bet goes to $800, $180 into rail, now at +$288
5.) $800 pays $1160, bet goes to $1600, $$360 into rail, now at +$648
6.) $1600 pays $2320, bet goes to $100, $3820 into rail, now at +$4468
7.) $100 pays $145, bet goes to $200...

Place 6/8 pay schedule:
1.) $60 pays $70, bet goes to $120, $10 into rail, you are -$50
2.) $120 pays $140, bet goes to $240, $20 into rail, you are -$30
3.) $240 pays $280, bet goes to $480, $40 into rail, you are +$10
4.) $480 pays $560, bet goes to $900, $140 into rail, you are +$150
5.) $900 pays $1050, bet goes to $1200, $750 into rail, you are +$900
6.) $1200 pays $1400, bet goes to $120, $2480 into rail, you are +$3380
7.) $120 pays$ 140. bet goes to $240...

So shooter sets a point, I bet $320 across. I am at -$320.
1.) One number hits, I get back $10, or $23, or $48
2.) Second number hits, I get back $10, or $23, or $48, or if a repeater ($20, or $45, or $90).
3.) Third number hits, I get back $10, or $23, or $48, or if a repeater ($20, or $45, or $95), or if a threepeat ($40, or $90, or $90)
At this point, I am somewhere from -$290 to -$140
About the 5th hit, I am pretty close to break even.
After that, there is money to be made, and if any one number hits 6 times, I am ahead somewhere between $3380 to $7408.

What I need to do now is code a WinCraps autobet that counts how many times each box number is rolled for each shooter. Each shooter will be one game. I want to see how often does any one number get rolled at least 6 times.

RaleighCraps,

i used to do something similiar.
Passline, place 6/8, buy 4/10 (vig on win), continuous Come.

i cant bring myself to pay 2% HE for the buy 5/9.

i stopped because i hated the PSO.
so i compromised and just do pass, place 6/8, come.

What is your bankroll for $320 across?

It would have to be a $4k buy in, which is over my limit right now.
But should I get a good session and get $4k in my rack, I can give this a crack.

Quote: RaleighCraps

What I need to do now is code a WinCraps autobet that counts how many times each box number is rolled for each shooter.
Each shooter will be one game.
I want to see how often does any one number get rolled at least 6 times.

Compare your data to mine. (old sim)
# of shooters only 1 million. (10 million would be better for the 6 times and higher)
It is a start.
I did not count the come out rolls or the point winners.
Most place bettors that bet across also bet the pass line and do not work the place bets on the cor.

4/10: 0.0009425 or 1 in 1,061
5/9: 0.00285625 or 1 in 350
6/8: 0.005705 or 1 in 175

Quote: RaleighCraps

In essence, isn't that what I have already done above? I will concede that I am not treating money on the table as my money won, which many people will argue is a bad viewpoint. However, I personally prefer to measure my win/loss at the END of the roll. Money gained or lost during the roll is only the mechanism that is utilized to get to the final result.
So if you look at where I am at after a SIX has been rolled twice, I am down $30 from when the roll started, and I have a $240 bet on the table for the Place 6.




Place 6/8 pay schedule:
1.) $60 pays $70, bet goes to $120, $10 into rail, you are -$50
2.) $120 pays $140, bet goes to $240, $20 into rail, you are -$30
3.) $240 pays $280, bet goes to $480, $40 into rail, you are +$10
4.) $480 pays $560, bet goes to $900, $140 into rail, you are +$150
5.) $900 pays $1050, bet goes to $1200, $750 into rail, you are +$900
6.) $1200 pays $1400, bet goes to $120, $2480 into rail, you are +$3380
7.) $120 pays$ 140. bet goes to $240...

Just figuring the six vs. the seven. The probability of losing the initial $60 is .54545, so over half the time.
One hit, then seven, p = .24793 down $50 cumulative probability .79338
Two hits, then seven, p = .11270 down $30 cum. prob. .90608
Three hits, then seven, p = .05123, up $10 cum. prob. .95731
Four hits, then seven, p = .02329, up $150 cum. prob. .98060
Five hits, then seven, p = .01058, up $900 cum. prob. .99118
Six hits, then seven, p = .00481, up $3380
etc. etc.

For the whole $320, p(lose it all before any hits) = .2, or once in five.

Quote: RaleighCraps

What I need to do now is code a WinCraps autobet that counts how many times each box number is rolled for each shooter. Each shooter will be one game. I want to see how often does any one number get rolled at least 6 times.

Why not just simulate your whole strategy?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

...Why not just simulate your whole strategy?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Because seeing how often I would probably lose, and how much I should lose, is too damn depressing ?

I am trying to learn the new syntax for WinCrapsPro. So far I have proved pretty adept at mostly crashing it.
This betting pattern will get a go in Pro.

Actually, once I get the bet file correct, this is a perfect way to test how the size of the buy-in has a direct affect on the session outcome. Just code 4 players, all playing the same bet pattern, all with a buy in from $1K to $4K.

I like to do each shooter is a game, and each session goes for 100 shooters, or if the player goes broke.
Run that a couple hundred times, and repeat.

Another thread about the top rolls brings up a pretty good point. I have WinCraps set to 100 rolls / hour, but the long rolls were 11x and 15x rolls, for 3 and 4 hours respectively. That is SERIOUSLY under 100 rolls / hour.

the "problem" I have with any pressing strategy is that so few shooters ever repeat a number. What's the average -- six throws and 7 out?

My first goal would be to put back in my rail my initial bet amount, plus a small profit, and then to press slowly so that I keep putting more in my rail than on the table.

Quote: AlanMendelson

the "problem" I have with any pressing strategy is that so few shooters ever repeat a number.
What's the average -- six throws and 7 out?

The median (50/50) is 6 throws for all shooters 7out.

Some sim data I have sitting around. Another 1 million shooter group

Place Bet Hit repeats per shooter is a "wait and be patient" thing.
About 3 out of 5 shooters do not even get one place repeat. (This is for all 6 box #s)
3 out of 4 get 0 or 1.
1 out of 20 on average gets 6 or more, not especially on just one number, but over all 6.
remember: 1 in 20 means about a 35% chance of getting 0 repeats in 20 attempts(shooter)

(come out rolls and point wins were not counted. Place bets OFF on the cor as normal play)
added: average per shooter: 1.1

Hits	relative	or less	or more
0	0.610031525	0.610031525	1
1	0.152635382	0.762666907	0.389968475
2	0.082702707	0.845369613	0.237333093
3	0.049862625	0.895232238	0.154630387
4	0.031730079	0.926962317	0.104767762
5	0.021362553	0.948324871	0.073037683
6	0.014755037	0.963079908	0.051675129
7	0.010340026	0.973419934	0.036920092
8	0.007212518	0.980632452	0.026580066
9	0.005225013	0.985857465	0.019367548
10	0.00387001	0.989727474	0.014142535
11	0.002850007	0.992577481	0.010272526
12	0.001907505	0.994484986	0.007422519
13	0.001522504	0.99600749	0.005515014
14	0.001047503	0.997054993	0.00399251
15	0.000745002	0.997799994	0.002945007
16	0.000580001	0.998379996	0.002200006
17	0.000435001	0.998814997	0.001620004
18	0.000317501	0.999132498	0.001185003
19	0.000245001	0.999377498	0.000867502
20	0.00016	0.999537499	0.000622502

Quote: AlanMendelson

My first goal would be to put back in my rail my initial bet amount, plus a small profit, and then to press slowly so that I keep putting more in my rail than on the table.

Exactly what most pass/place bettors do, or attempt to do. But...
Press too fast, 7out, not happy
Press too slow, 7out, not happy
Press just right, 7out, not as happy

Quote: 7craps

The median (50/50) is 6 throws for all shooters 7out.

Some sim data I have sitting around. Another 1 million shooter group

Place Bet Hit repeats per shooter is a "wait and be patient" thing.
About 3 out of 5 shooters do not even get one place repeat. (This is for all 6 box #s)
3 out of 4 get 0 or 1.
1 out of 20 on average gets 6 or more, not especially on just one number, but over all 6.
remember: 1 in 20 means about a 35% chance of getting 0 repeats in 20 attempts(shooter)
.
.
.
Exactly what most pass/place bettors do, or attempt to do. But...
Press too fast, 7out, not happy
Press too slow, 7out, not happy
Press just right, 7out, not as happy

Your wealth of stats is simply amazing 7craps. I really need to follow superrick and start writing down every throw for later referral and fact checking.

Although, when I was playing with Rick, and we were talking about the rolls later, my recall of the rolls was pretty accurate. But that was fairly short sessions, so my accuracy across a 4 hour craps session I am sure would be less.

3 out of 5 shooters not even getting one place repeat seems low to my recollection, but I guess when you factor in all of the PSO shooters, it probably is right.
I have known for quite a while now that in the sessions where I make money, I usually make it all on 1 or 2 really good rolls. Occasionally, you get one shooter who always seems to make 10-15 rolls and a couple of points, but they are not often.
But it seems to me that I press numbers more than once, way more often than 2 out of every 5 shooters. However, seeing as I have no data to back up my claims, I must accept the 3 out of 5.

My wife hates to come near a craps table when a big roll is going on. As soon as she sees how much money I may have on one number, she gets too nervous (anything over $100 is above her threshold). But as I have tried to explain to her, if I bet $500 on a number, and it hits, I have just paid for that bet. Sure I can take the $500 back down, but I thought I was playing to try and win money. If I take my bets down every time I win one, what's the point in playing?
And as you concluded in the end, pressing too hard and not taking any winnings, stinks. But press too slowly, and you rue the money you missed out winning. Ideally you press hard and fast, and then take it all down immediately before a 7 is rolled. Oh to have that kind of timing. :-)

Quote: RaleighCraps

3 out of 5 shooters not even getting one place repeat seems low to my recollection, but I guess when you factor in all of the PSO shooters, it probably is right. ...
But it seems to me that I press numbers more than once, way more often than 2 out of every 5 shooters. However, seeing as I have no data to back up my claims, I must accept the 3 out of 5.

The average per shooter is about 1.1 repeats, so that shows just how non-normal this distribution is.
And it is not like you will ever get to play during 100 shooters per hour, or even 100 shooters per 2 hours.
One may only average 10-12 shooters per hour, + or - a few

So, the very next 10 shooters you play, see if they all hit at least 1 place bet repeat.
Do not count the pass line winners in that group. That is a totally different bet.
chance of success would be around .39^10

Some really do not care what to expect out of any one session.
They know variance rules in just a few played sessions.
They play each hand and each game as their last one here on Earth.
Yep, Whatever is more fun.

But many others bitch and moan because shooter after shooter can not make them any money on their place bets.
Hit 2 or 3 #s then 7out... blame the shooter, not expectation.

True, some shooters cant get both dice to the end of the table, sometimes just one makes it.
Those less than random rolls.
Yuck

Quote: 7craps

The average per shooter is about 1.1 repeats, so that shows just how non-normal this distribution is.
And it is not like you will ever get to play during 100 shooters per hour, or even 100 shooters per 2 hours.
One may only average 10-12 shooters per hour, + or - a few

I am Off Topic: This stat is my argument as to why I personally do not like the Come Bet. In my experience, I set way more Come Bets than I ever seem to get paid on. At least with the bet Across, I am getting something back. In the end, the math says I will probably lose more betting across, but the mini payouts makes me 'feel' better.

Quote: 7craps

So, the very next 10 shooters you play, see if they all hit at least 1 place bet repeat.
Do not count the pass line winners in that group. That is a totally different bet.
chance of success would be around .39^10

I'm not sure I have ever seen 10 shooters in a row make even 1 box number, let alone a repeat. Even when I throw alone, I usually manage either a PSO, or even worse one of those craps, yo, craps, craps, yo, 7 out rolls at least once every 10 tries.

Quote: 7craps

Some really do not care what to expect out of any one session.
They know variance rules in just a few played sessions.
They play each hand and each game as their last one here on Earth.
Yep, Whatever is more fun.

Guilty your honor. IT's no excuse, but I was just trying to have me some fun, and boy was it fun when dem numbers was a hittin.

Quote: 7craps

But many others bitch and moan because shooter after shooter can not make them any money on their place bets.
Hit 2 or 3 #s then 7out... blame the shooter, not expectation.

True, some shooters cant get both dice to the end of the table, sometimes just one makes it.
Those less than random rolls.
Yuck

Of course we blame the shooter. He/She was the one that threw the dice. Although, if a player had their hands in the tub, then we have a different fall guy. ;-)

Quote: RaleighCraps

I am Off Topic:
This stat is my argument as to why I personally do not like the Come Bet.
In my experience, I set way more Come Bets than I ever seem to get paid on.

Everyone else does too.
The come bets only wins on average 49.3% of the time.
(45% of that is with no odds bet, never makes it to the "point" round)
The best place bet is stuck at 45.45%

I am sure many believe it should be 80% to 90% or even higher.

Quote: RaleighCraps

At least with the bet Across, I am getting something back.
In the end, the math says I will probably lose more betting across, but the mini payouts makes me 'feel' better.

For a Place bettor it still is not all that great.
Place Bet Hits per shooter table

23% of shooters 7out without even 1 place # rolled. Ouch.
65% (almost 2 out of 3) 7out hitting at most 3 #s.
Close to break even.
about 1 out of 11 shooters, on average, can hit 9 or more numbers b4 the 7out. Now were are talking.
Better make your BIG money on them, if you can't, way past time to go home

Of course, most Craps players think every shooter should roll multiple point winners every hand, many place hits and hardways every hand, and just place the blame on it NOT happening right on every shooter instead of just expectation.

Place Bet Hits (box #s) per shooter table
(place bets again not working or counted on the cor)

hits	relative prob	or less	or more
0	0.23194308	0.23194308	1
1	0.178405446	0.410348526	0.76805692
2	0.136455341	0.546803867	0.589651474
3	0.104977762	0.651781629	0.453196133
4	0.080280201	0.73206183	0.348218371
5	0.062332656	0.794394486	0.26793817
6	0.047687619	0.842082105	0.205605514
7	0.036965092	0.879047198	0.157917895
8	0.027657569	0.906704767	0.120952802
9	0.021335053	0.92803982	0.093295233
10	0.016887542	0.944927362	0.07196018
11	0.012647532	0.957574894	0.055072638
12	0.009900025	0.967474919	0.042425106
13	0.007597519	0.975072438	0.032525081
14	0.005582514	0.980654952	0.024927562
15	0.004525011	0.985179963	0.019345048
16	0.003535009	0.988714972	0.014820037
17	0.002590006	0.991304978	0.011285028
18	0.001982505	0.993287483	0.008695022
19	0.001545004	0.994832487	0.006712517
20	0.001132503	0.99596499	0.005167513

All of this discussion is the reason why I changed my entire betting strategy at craps to a passline bet and the fire bet. The chance of getting "lucky" is so slim that it's not worth the effort or the money. So why not just bet the max on the fire bet so that if you do get lucky your have the biggest possible return for the least amount of money at risk?

With just a passline bet you can enjoy the game along with everyone else, and cheer the shooter on with everyone else, but when the 7-out comes you don't have to cry along with everyone else.

And if one or two shooters in the day has a monster roll, you probably also did well with your passline bets getting paid and the fire bet getting paid too.

Oh, and you still get the free drinks.

Quote: AlanMendelson

So why not just bet the max on the fire bet... when the 7-out comes you don't have to cry along with everyone else.

Why would the 7-out not be what you would also not want to see on the fire bet? I've never bet it, I must be missing something.

Quote: 7craps

23% of shooters 7out without even 1 place # rolled. Ouch.
65% (almost 2 out of 3) 7out hitting at most 3 #s.
Close to break even.
about 1 out of 11 shooters, on average, can hit 9 or more numbers b4 the 7out. Now were are talking.
Better make your BIG money on them, if you can't, way past time to go home

Of course, most Craps players think every shooter should roll multiple point winners every hand, many place hits and hardways every hand, and just place the blame on it NOT happening right on every shooter instead of just expectation.

Place Bet Hits (box #s) per shooter table
(place bets again not working or counted on the cor)

hits	relaive prob	or less	or more
0	0.23194308	0.23194308	1
1	0.178405446	0.410348526	0.76805692
2	0.136455341	0.546803867	0.589651474
3	0.104977762	0.651781629	0.453196133
4	0.080280201	0.73206183	0.348218371

What is the source of those numbers, 7Craps? Theoretically, shouldn't it be .2 to not make any point numbers, because you have 24 ways to roll a box number and six to roll a seven, so 6/30 - .2?

It occurs to me that maybe those numbers are counting only five box numbers, i.e. not placing the point. On average, then, this would remove four ways, so 6/26 = .23076.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: AlanMendelson

All of this discussion is the reason why I changed my entire betting strategy at craps to a passline bet and the fire bet. The chance of getting "lucky" is so slim that it's not worth the effort or the money. So why not just bet the max on the fire bet so that if you do get lucky your have the biggest possible return for the least amount of money at risk?

With just a passline bet you can enjoy the game along with everyone else, and cheer the shooter on with everyone else, but when the 7-out comes you don't have to cry along with everyone else.

And if one or two shooters in the day has a monster roll, you probably also did well with your passline bets getting paid and the fire bet getting paid too.

Oh, and you still get the free drinks.

I have to hand it to you if you can stand at a craps table for any length of time and only make a passline and a fire bet. I would go out of my mind with boredom.
I am definitely seeing a difference in the tolerances of people who have daily access to a casino, vs most of us who have to take a lengthy trip to get to a casino. I think it changes our tolerances and betting patterns.

Quote: odiousgambit

Why would the 7-out not be what you would also not want to see on the fire bet? I've never bet it, I must be missing something.

I wouldnt be crying when the 7-out comes because I wouldn't have so much money on the table. Whether the 7 comes on the first roll or the 50th roll, my exposure on the table would be the same: fire bet plus passline bet. In the interim, I might have made some money.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I have to hand it to you if you can stand at a craps table for any length of time and only make a passline and a fire bet. I would go out of my mind with boredom.
I am definitely seeing a difference in the tolerances of people who have daily access to a casino, vs most of us who have to take a lengthy trip to get to a casino. I think it changes our tolerances and betting patterns.

You may be right about the "tolerances" of those of who have daily access and those who visit a casino rarely. I've played so much craps over the past 15 years I couldn't even count the number of sessions. There was a time when I would go to Caesars twice a week -- Wednesday nights for about four hours of play, and then again on the weekends.

So to me craps is not the exciting game that others feel it is.

Of course, my feelings would change if I was at a table with a precision shooter who could deliver profits by contolling the dice. I am waiting for that day.

Quote: goatcabin

Quote: 7craps

23% of shooters 7out without even 1 place # rolled. Ouch.
65% (almost 2 out of 3) 7out hitting at most 3 #s.
Close to break even.
about 1 out of 11 shooters, on average, can hit 9 or more numbers b4 the 7out. Now were are talking.
Better make your BIG money on them, if you can't, way past time to go home

Of course, most Craps players think every shooter should roll multiple point winners every hand, many place hits and hardways every hand, and just place the blame on it NOT happening right on every shooter instead of just expectation.

Place Bet Hits (box #s) per shooter table
(place bets again not working or counted on the cor)

hits	relaive prob	or less	or more
0	0.23194308	0.23194308	1
1	0.178405446	0.410348526	0.76805692
2	0.136455341	0.546803867	0.589651474
3	0.104977762	0.651781629	0.453196133
4	0.080280201	0.73206183	0.348218371

What is the source of those numbers, 7Craps? Theoretically, shouldn't it be .2 to not make any point numbers, because you have 24 ways to roll a box number and six to roll a seven, so 6/30 - .2?

It occurs to me that maybe those numbers are counting only five box numbers, i.e. not placing the point. On average, then, this would remove four ways, so 6/26 = .23076.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

Still waiting for an answer on this.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

Still waiting for an answer on this.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I thought the explanation was clear.

Place Bet Hits (box #s) per shooter
(place bets again not working or counted on the cor)

This was done by simulation (as were the other tables in my posts)
and only counted the Place bets hit (all the box numbers) that happen on the "point rolls" not the come out rolls.

This is important to many place bettors as you know their place bets are off on the cor
and they really want box numbers to roll!

Damn the horns (what place bettor loves horn numbers on a regular craps table? maybe on valentine's day)
and they will take the pass line winners as they come.

I heart hearts

Quote: 7craps

I thought the explanation was clear.

Place Bet Hits (box #s) per shooter
(place bets again not working or counted on the cor)

This was done by simulation (as were the other tables in my posts)
and only counted the Place bets hit (all the box numbers) that happen on the "point rolls" not the come out rolls.

But did your simulations include bets on the point? If so, I would expect 20% no hits, i.e. 6/30, rather than 6/26 (weighted average of ways to roll one of five point numbers) = .2307.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

But did your simulations include bets on the point?

I got you now.
(too many days sick this past month)

No.
counting only the box numbers hit, per shooter, during the point rolls.

I figured it was about 23% but had to do the sim to prove it.(and see the distribution while not counting the come out rolls)

just like the % of shooters that PSO at any time. (point seven out)
Not just 24/36 * 1/6 = 1/9 = 11.1%
but from all shooters
(495/196) * 1/9 = 55/196 = 28.06%

The distribution is even more interesting from the sim.

The math looks a bit more challenging for that distribution. More on this later

Quote: RaleighCraps

I get to Buy the 4,5,9,10, vig on win. So I will start with $50 on each, $60 on the Place 6,8. Total = $320

Buy 4/10 pay schedule:
1.) $50 pays $98, bet goes to $100, $48 into rail, now at -$2.
2.) $100 pays $195, bet goes to $200, $95 into rail, now at +$93
3.) $200 pays $390, bet goes to $500, $90 into rail, now at +$183
4.) $500 pays $975, bet goes to $1000, $475 into rail, now at +$658
5.) $1000 pays $1950, bet goes to $2000, $950 into rail, now at +$1608
6.) $2000 pays $3900, bet goes to $100, $5800 into rail, now at +$7408
7.) $100 pays $195 , bet goes to $200...

Buy 5/9 pay schedule:
1.) $50 pays $73, bet goes to $100, $23 into rail, now at -$27
2.) $100 pays $145, bet goes to $200, $45 into rail, now at +$18
3.) $200 pays $290, bet goes to $400, $90 into rail, now at +$108
4.) $400 pays $580, bet goes to $800, $180 into rail, now at +$288
5.) $800 pays $1160, bet goes to $1600, $$360 into rail, now at +$648
6.) $1600 pays $2320, bet goes to $100, $3820 into rail, now at +$4468
7.) $100 pays $145, bet goes to $200...



Place 6/8 pay schedule:
1.) $60 pays $70, bet goes to $120, $10 into rail, you are -$50
2.) $120 pays $140, bet goes to $240, $20 into rail, you are -$30
3.) $240 pays $280, bet goes to $480, $40 into rail, you are +$10
4.) $480 pays $560, bet goes to $900, $140 into rail, you are +$150
5.) $900 pays $1050, bet goes to $1200, $750 into rail, you are +$900
6.) $1200 pays $1400, bet goes to $120, $2480 into rail, you are +$3380
7.) $120 pays$ 140. bet goes to $240...

So shooter sets a point, I bet $320 across. I am at -$320.
1.) One number hits, I get back $10, or $23, or $48
2.) Second number hits, I get back $10, or $23, or $48, or if a repeater ($20, or $45, or $90).
3.) Third number hits, I get back $10, or $23, or $48, or if a repeater ($20, or $45, or $95), or if a threepeat ($40, or $90, or $90)
At this point, I am somewhere from -$290 to -$140
About the 5th hit, I am pretty close to break even.
After that, there is money to be made, and if any one number hits 6 times, I am ahead somewhere between $3380 to $7408.

What I need to do now is code a WinCraps autobet that counts how many times each box number is rolled for each shooter. Each shooter will be one game. I want to see how often does any one number get rolled at least 6 times.

This is very close to what do, I don't take as many hits on each number.... I may go up to 4 hits. But I've done really well with it