Hedging bets ...

I more than fully agree with our Wizard that "thou shalt never hedge your bets", and I absolutely subscribe to this.

Now a seemingly ignorant,ironic question based on that.

I bet the Don'ts ... $5.00 flat, $20 odds on the 4 or 10.

Dealers are always suggesting to put $3 or $4 on the hardway to 'cover' that bet... covering it only 1/3 of the 4/10 outcomes.

Does anyone consider this hardway bet to be a 'good bet' or a 'bad hedge' ?


Now another one for betting the right side with Come bets... I have 3 come bets with odds playing when the point hits... a new Come-Out roll.

Dealers are always suggesting a $3 HOP-7 bets to cover the flat bets on that 7 appearing on the Come-Out.

Does anyone consider this HOP-7 bet to be a 'good bet' or a 'bad hedge' ?

No on the hardway.
Tentative yes on the 3wayHop or whatever its called.

Quote: jkluv7

Now another one for betting the right side with Come bets... I have 3 come bets with odds playing when the point hits... a new Come-Out roll.

Dealers are always suggesting a $3 HOP-7 bets to cover the flat bets on that 7 appearing on the Come-Out.

Does anyone consider this HOP-7 bet to be a 'good bet' or a 'bad hedge' ?

All bad hedges
if and only if you plan on making more than a few of them over your lifetime.
The dice do not know it is a come out roll.
And if that 3way7 is so good on the come out roll, why not also make it on the next roll to protect against the point7?

Again simulate this for 50 to 100 bets and see how much more you lose when these type of hedge bets are made.
Prove it to yourself
Craps Dealers are good at giving advice when it is about gambling with other people's money (OPM).

Quote: jkluv7

Now another one for betting the right side with Come bets... I have 3 come bets with odds playing when the point hits... a new Come-Out roll.

Dealers are always suggesting a $3 HOP-7 bets to cover the flat bets on that 7 appearing on the Come-Out.

Does anyone consider this HOP-7 bet to be a 'good bet' or a 'bad hedge' ?

We all have stupid bets that we make in craps. I do a hardway occasionally... and place the 4/10. If you really feel the need to bet on a 7, the 3-way hop is better than "big red" - assuming they pay 30 TO 1, aka 31 for 1. 3 for 16 (3-way hop) vs. 3 for 15 (big red). If they pay 30 for 1 (fucking CET) - then hopping/big red are the same payout.

Quote: jkluv7

I more than fully agree with our Wizard that "thou shalt never hedge your bets", and I absolutely subscribe to this.

I think that "thou shalt never hedge your bets" is a bit of an overstatement by the Wiz. There are certainly times that it's correct to hedge. It's generally good advice, though, since most hedge opportunities are terrible, and general mathematically-challenged well-accepted gambler "logic" is to hedge likely winners (eg, to insure good hands in blackjack). A more precise rule would be harder to remember so I think it's a good rule.

To actually answer your question, the dealer advice is terrible. I think that the Wizard says something somewhere about never listening to anyone who is making bets in the middle of the table. The edge on those bets is just too high.

Moreover: the main reason that you would generally (correctly) hedge is that the variance is too high for you to handle. This should not come up in craps. If it does, you are betting too much for your bankroll (or for your psychological limits). Just bet less, and don't hedge. By hedging with middle-of-the-table bets, all you are doing is reducing your variance and increasing your expected loss. To me, this is a double-whammy. Craps is a -EV game, so you are going to lose in the long term no matter what. The higher your variance, the more of a chance that you will be ahead after some period of time, so it makes no sense to try to lower it.

Thank you all for reaffirming my beliefs. While I have never used these bets, and I have seen a few occasions where they actually paid off for others, the math behind them certainly decries a losing bet in the long run.

Hedge bets do have a high house edge, but more importantly, what is a hedge but a way to protect yourself from variance? You're playing a losing game. You want as much variance as you can stomach.

Although I can't argue too hard against hedging multiple come bets on the come-out roll, just so you're on the side of the table - although part of me recommends you just make a large enough pass line bet to cover it, but that would become an expensive strategy quite quickly - a $5 table at 5x odds, you could end up with $1,260 on the table. (...which probably wouldn't be allowed at a $5 table. So yeah, don't do that, or if you do, take double odds on the pass. Or none - it's still better than the hop, with a $2.55 expected loss on a $180 pass regardless of odds vs. $3.33 on a $30 hop.)

Quote: jkluv7

Thank you all for reaffirming my beliefs. While I have never used these bets, and I have seen a few occasions where they actually paid off for others, the math behind them certainly decries a losing bet in the long run.

In fairness, they are all losing bets in the long run. The question is, how fast do they suck your money, and do you get adequate entertainment value out of the money you are losing?

Hedging in craps increases loss rate and decreases variance (which is the only thing that I find enjoyable about the game) so it is basically paying more for less entertainment.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Moreover: the main reason that you would generally (correctly) hedge is that the variance is too high for you to handle. This should not come up in craps.

I disagree. I imagine MOST people who have hit 5 points on the fire bet will hedge to some degree. I could be wrong....

Quote: SOOPOO

I disagree. I imagine MOST people who have hit 5 points on the fire bet will hedge to some degree. I could be wrong....

Ok, fair enough, I forgot about the high-payout side bets. Those multi-part bets are essentially forced parlays, and I can see where you'd be willing to give up some EV to not have to continue to parlay.

I think my point stands for the "main game", though.

Quote: 7craps

Craps Dealers are good at giving advice when it is about gambling with other people's money (OPM).

"Good" isn't quite right to describe that. "Generous" or "forthcoming" or some less charitable term might be better.

Quote: SOOPOO

I disagree. I imagine MOST people who have hit 5 points on the fire bet will hedge to some degree. I could be wrong....

...out of curiosity, how would you hedge that? I suppose if the last point has been set, you could put a big lay on it, but until then...

I hedged the fire bet after 4 points were hit. I got lucky, the 5th point was set.

You could hedge by don't passing, but you're right, it could end up backfiring.

Quote: 24Bingo

...out of curiosity, how would you hedge that? I suppose if the last point has been set, you could put a big lay on it, but until then...

You can start after 5th point is set.
on a $10 fire bet

after 5th point is set you have already won $250 with a chance to win $2500.
laying $1200 against the point leaves you $1300 if it hits
seven out wins
6,8 $1000
5,9 $800
4,10 $600

after 6th point is set you've won $1300($2500-$1200 losing hedge) with a chance at $10000
laying $3600 against the point leaves you $5200($10,000-$4,800 losing both hedges) if it hits
seven out wins
6,8 $3000
5,9 $2400
4,10 $1800

I think all those numbers are right. Of course hedging is for NPCs! I've tossed two 5 point fire bets this year and didn't hedge any of it! Never did set that 6th point so it remains to been seen how PCish I am.

Quote: dfwbird

You can start after 5th point is set.
on a $10 fire bet

after 5th point is set you have already won $250 with a chance to win $2500.
laying $1200 against the point leaves you $1300 if it hits
seven out wins
6,8 $1000
5,9 $800
4,10 $600

after 6th point is set you've won $1300($2500-$1200 losing hedge) with a chance at $10000
laying $3600 against the point leaves you $5200($10,000-$4,800 losing both hedges) if it hits
seven out wins
6,8 $3000
5,9 $2400
4,10 $1800

I think all those numbers are right. Of course hedging is for NPCs! I've tossed two 5 point fire bets this year and didn't hedge any of it! Never did set that 6th point so it remains to been seen how PCish I am.

I almost think it would be fun to get the five point fire bet and lay the remaning number for so much money that you would _lose_ money if you made that point .. and make MORE money if you didn't hit it.

IE: If your last point is a four or a ten, just go ahead and lay it for $1000 for every dollar on the fire bet. Insist they use green chips!

The game is supposed to be fun. Why do what everyone else does? Pushing out on a six point fire from a $1000 lay would just be just as great a story as winning an extra $500 to $855 from not hitting the last point I think.

...you want to turn a spread of +999/+249 into one of +724/-1? Cool story, bro.

(Admittedly, it makes more sense on a 6 or 8.)

Quote: SanchoPanza

"Good" isn't quite right to describe that. "Generous" or "forthcoming" or some less charitable term might be better.

Yeah Sancho you are right about that.
The craps dealer who told me I was an idiot for not having been betting the horn when it kept coming up all the time went on to explain how, if he was playing this table, he would already be up $3500 or more. He kept on me about it, so finally I started pointing out how the horn was one of the worst bets house edge wise on the table. He had no clue what I was talking about. After a few minutes I just gave up.

Quote: jkluv7

I more than fully agree with our Wizard that "thou shalt never hedge ....",

I wonder if the Wiz buys car insurance.

These are my calculations for how much to lay on the 5th and 6th points, per dollar bet on the Fire Bet. For example, 4 is the fifth point and you have a $5 Fire Bet, lay $150 times 5. For the 6 and 8 the calculation does not result in a number evenly divisible by 6; I use $120 and $420. Of course these calculations do not include the cost of the commission.

x is the amount of the lay bet, $24 is the amount already won on the 4 point Fire Bet, $249 is the amount that may be won on the 5 point Fire Bet. I want to win the same amount whether the 5th point is made or not. In this first calculation, I will lay $750 on the 4 to win $375. If the shooter sevens out, I get $375 on the lay bet and $125 on the Fire Bet, total $500. If the shooter makes the 4, I lose $750 but now have won $1,250 on the Fire Bet, total $500.

1/2x + 24 = 249-x
.5x = 225 - x
225 = 1.5x
x=150

2/3x + 24 = 249-x
.666667x = 225 - x
225 = 1.666667x
x=135

5/6x + 24 = 249-x
.833333x = 225 - x
225 = 1.833333x
x=122.73

1/2x + 249 = 999-x
.5x = 750 - x
750 = 1.5x
x=500

2/3x + 249 = 999-x
.666667x = 750 - x
750 = 1.666667x
x=450

5/6x + 249 = 999-x
.833333x = 750 - x
750 = 1.833333x
x=409.09

Personally, I will lay the fifth and sixth points if I have $5 or more on the Fire Bet. I have been disappointed several times when I did not lay the fifth point and the shooter failed to make the point. If the shooter makes the point, I lose the lay bet but I'm still a winner.

I look at it this way; if the fifth point is a 6 or 8, I have a 6/5 chance of winning nothing, 5/6 chance of winning $1,250, or a 100% chance of winning $625. I like the 100% chance.

Quote: slackyhacky

I wonder if the Wiz buys car insurance.

He even says that "exceptions can be made for insuring life-changing amounts of money" - in everyday bets on the casino floor, which you're making again and again and again, a hedge will only steepen the edge while decreasing the variance.

Quote: Ahigh

I almost think it would be fun to get the five point fire bet and lay the remaning number for so much money that you would _lose_ money if you made that point .. and make MORE money if you didn't hit it.

IE: If your last point is a four or a ten, just go ahead and lay it for $1000 for every dollar on the fire bet. Insist they use green chips!

The game is supposed to be fun. Why do what everyone else does? Pushing out on a six point fire from a $1000 lay would just be just as great a story as winning an extra $500 to $855 from not hitting the last point I think.

Well... Just got back from trip to fabulous Bossier city. $5 on the fire, Set the 5th point 4... After a few rolls thought what the hell lets see how this feels... $500 no 4. seven out a few rolls later... I can't say what exactly sucked about the play. But it sucked. From not taking down my $150 PL odds to wondering if I was hoping for a 4 or a 7. Probably just can't wrap my mind around the situation. Or I was drunk. sniff.. Shrug.. I won't be laying 5th point when shooting.

Quote: dfwbird

Well... Just got back from trip to fabulous Bossier city. $5 on the fire, Set the 5th point 4... After a few rolls thought what the hell lets see how this feels... $500 no 4. seven out a few rolls later... I can't say what exactly sucked about the play. But it sucked. From not taking down my $150 PL odds to wondering if I was hoping for a 4 or a 7. Probably just can't wrap my mind around the situation. Or I was drunk. sniff.. Shrug.. I won't be laying 5th point when shooting.

Not taking down the pass line odds before hedging makes no sense. Taking the odds down is a commission-free hedge. The no-4 is a hedge with a 5% commission. You could have had the same action by taking down the odds and betting only $200 on the no-4, except that you would have saved $15 in commission on a 7 (I'm assuming that they take commission on the full bet amount, but on wins only, which seems to be standard on the vegas strip)

Ignoring the fire bet and the pass line bet, with either method, you lose $200 on a 4 (either losing the $200 no-4 bet, or losing $500 but winning back $300 on the odds). But on a 7, you win $75 your way ($250 - $25 commission - $150 odds bet) and $90 my way ($100 - $10 commission)

Quote: dfwbird

Well... Just got back from trip to fabulous Bossier city. $5 on the fire, Set the 5th point 4... After a few rolls thought what the hell lets see how this feels... $500 no 4. seven out a few rolls later... I can't say what exactly sucked about the play. But it sucked. From not taking down my $150 PL odds to wondering if I was hoping for a 4 or a 7. Probably just can't wrap my mind around the situation. Or I was drunk. sniff.. Shrug.. I won't be laying 5th point when shooting.

Yeah, with $150 odds, that's equivalent to a $200 no 4 and a $7 tip to the casino. Sort of like betting red for $180 black for $180 and zero, for $10, and double zero for $20. If you bet for all outcomes, you are absolutely sure to cancel out any win and still have to pay the vig.

I was thinking about making a topic on bet optimization. Lots of people know about this in general, but there are more optimizations on a craps table than most people realize:

$5 red? No! $3 three-way red and $2 red pays $26 instead of $25.

horn high ace-deuce plus a dollar yo? No! 4 dollar crap check and 2 dollar yo pays $32 and down on hi/lo instead of 31.

$15 max odds on a four point and place the four for $15 more? No! $5 odds and $25 buy bet pays $59 instead of $57

Laying odds on a number and taking odds on the number is a little more straightforward how to optimize the bet if either side has a commission involved.

Optimizations are a plenty on the table if you know what to look for.

I will place a 3 hoppin' 7s bet on the come out after hitting the point to hedge my four place bets on a no craps craps table.

The reason is purely psychological.

The psychological reaction I have to losing the four flat bets is much worse than the reaction to losing $12.

I react worse to losing those four come bets than I do to a normal seven out, and there is no logical reason for that, but there it is.