How much cash do I need

I have what I think is a relatively straight-forward question, but not the formulas of information necessary to get the answer. Hopefully somebody can help me out.

I am going to the casino. I want to play craps for ~3 hours. I plan to make $5 pass line bets with 10X odds and have one $5 come bet with 10x odds at all times. So, I'll have about $110 on the table at all times. I want to be 95% certain I will be able to play for 3 hours without going bust.

How much cash do I need?


Thanks.

deleted

Although the math does not agree, my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets, because place bets only need to hit once, and come bets need to hit twice.

Quote: NicksGamingStuff

Although the math does not agree, my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets, because place bets only need to hit once, and come bets need to hit twice.

Tell your Dice teacher that statement IS 100% FALSE and misleading.
"What a fool believes..."

Come bets and place bets are apples and oranges.

Come bets, once a point is established for that bet, the number has to ONLY HIT ONE TIME to win, not two times.

"What a fool believes..."

Make 600 come bets, 200 NEVER even make it to the point round.
And of those bets, more win than lose on a 7 or an 11, something those Place bets can NEVER do.

Come bets with 10X odds run winning circles around Place bets any day of the year.

Once a come bet is on a number, that bet and the same Place bet has the same chance of winning.
And for the same action, the come bet because of the 0% HE on the odds pays more than the Place bets.

Place bets are better than the Horn bet, the hardway bets and the over/under 7 bet, IMO.
But at times I will bet all of them at the same time.
"What a fool believes..."

and come bets need to hit twice (to win)
is an all out lie and total BS.
(just like the pass line has to hit twice to win... another sucker bet)

Have a Nice Day!

Quote: craigrow

I have what I think is a relatively straight-forward question,
but not the formulas of information necessary to get the answer. Hopefully somebody can help me out.

I am going to the casino. I want to play craps for ~3 hours. I plan to make $5 pass line bets with 10X odds and have one $5 come bet with 10x odds at all times. So, I'll have about $110 on the table at all times. I want to be 95% certain I will be able to play for 3 hours without going bust.

How much cash do I need?


Thanks.

In 3 hours, depending on how busy the table is, as already mentioned,
you can have a very wide range of bets made and resolved.
This is the key for you.

I have to find my links to my come bet per hour (100 rolls) data.

What kind of bankroll do you think you need??

Someone has given an opinion of being safe at $2k bank.
My sim for this $2k bank shows a bust rate of 0.75% and of losing between $1900 and $2k about 1.2%
Looks to be very safe.
for $1k bank, a bust rate of 14.22% and of losing between $900 and $1k about 18.90%

I know I have more sims already done for this, but I am tired right now to look at them.

Too much MLB and South Park.

This is very easy to calculate once the variance and number of bets is known or to simulate.
See what other answers pop up.

added:

Quote: craigrow

I am going to the casino...
I plan to make $5 pass line bets with 10X odds and have one $5 come bet with 10x odds at all times.
So, I'll have about $110 on the table at all times.

Not quite.

Per 100 rolls, only 57 rolls, on average,
will have the $110 total wagers working.
This is because a come bet has to wait.
And if you only make one of them max,
you still have to wait for the current come bet point to be resolved before making another and having that one move to a come point number.

resolved bets per 100 rolls:
30 pass line bets
20 pass line odds bets
24 come bets
16 come bets odds bets

some info here. I have my data that matches Alan's
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1130-how-many-come-bets-is-too-many/#post8852

This can still be accurately calculated for RoR,
the average number of bets and the standard deviation,
Your average resolved bet is only $38.33
($5*1/3 + $55*2/3) = (5/3 + 110/3) = 115/3

but I have to clean up my come bet folder first.

New shooter's initial comeout roll: $50 four working $50 ten working, $5 on the line.

Take down one of those bets to fund your $50 odds bet after a point is established.

Take down the second one of those to fund the odds on the come bet.

After that always work your odds on the comeout roll.

This is the easiest way to reduce the amount of money you need to last longer.

The danger in not having two numbers covered on the comeout is if your best box numbers all happen to fall on comeout rolls and you miss getting paid and the sevens then fall on the non-comeout rolls, and it's seven out instead of seven winner.

It's an issue of balance. Effectively you can win faster and lose faster when the phase of when the sevens occurs goes against or for you. If you just want to play longer (still having a great chance to win!), make sure you have a chance to get paid for two out of four box numbers at all times, not just after the first two box numbers occur after the initial comeout roll.

It may be counter intuitive, but you're more likely to win in the short run with this strategy than with waiting to get $110 working on the felt until after two box numbers occur with no red's after the comeout roll.

On the comeout roll you will have a 50/50 chance of losing $100. But you also have a 50/50 chance of winning $98. It may seem frightening to lose $100 on sevens during the comeout, but in the long run it actually prevents you from making a bunch of crappy points (4 and 10) that end up not getting made over and over eating up your bank. The 0.33% per roll on the 4 and 10 for $50 each is $0.33 per roll when you have $100 total money working on the four and ten compared to $0.04 per roll when you have two nickel line bets with max odds. But you get a good service on your short-term volatility reduction for that very short term 33 cents per roll cost if you need that at the time and are worried about getting blown out of the water with a quick drawdown. You can stop doing this once you start winning or if you're just feeling lucky.

You can alternately do the six and eight for $48 each and have a greater chance of winning in exchange for a slightly higher edge per roll and a slightly lower pay. But if you plan on winning, I recommend the 4 and 10.

If they allow put bets with max odds, there are opportunities to reduce the cost, but in my opinion it's just not worth the hassle of upsetting other people (and confusing dealers) compared to just working some place or buy bets.

You may choose numbers from the 4, 6, 8, and 10 from whatever numbers were lost on the previous shooter if you want to let the dice decide which ones to cover. But just stay away from placing the 5 and 9 if you ask me.

You can do the exact same thing on the don'ts at Mandalay Bay with commission on the win only for paying behind for a lay bet, and you won't have to worry about working your lay odds on the comeout as that's how they do it anyway. But same thing, you can lay the 6 and 8 for $56 each on the initial comeout roll (even aligned with the right side!) collecting 46 in pay each with commission on the win of $2 on the comeout roll, then take those $56 lay bets down one at a time when you fund the $60 lay on the four or ten, $60 lay on the five/nine or $60 lay on the six/eight (they are 345x on $10 minimums). And you won't have to keep saying "work the comeout with my odds" each time a new dealer appears. Of course your cost for three hours at this is $32 instead of $16 because of the $10 minimums, but you're much more likely to win a little money on the don't side this way without much fear at all of losing if low edge and low volatility are what you're looking for.

Quote: craigrow

How much cash do I need?

My experience has been that you can be up or down 10 times your average bet very easily in a session. So I'd say the $2000 is roughly accurate, but I would add a cushion of another $1000 [minimum].

I would also be sure to be emotionally prepared to shrug off a loss of 2 grand or more, and find yourself also repeating such losses before wins. It isn't enough to just bring the money.

Quote: NicksGamingStuff

my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets

You have a dice teacher?

I just wanted to agree that two grand sounds right. I know people have provided you simulations and all that jazz, but I think if you go in with $1500 that would be good for all but the "fuck the world" sessions.

A $1000 bankroll is where you're getting into dicey waters.

Optimally, I would suggest bringing 200X the Minimum Pass Line Bet on the table:

$5 Minimum = $1,000
$10 Minimum = $2,000
$25 Minimum = $5,000

I think one of the most critical elements of the game is playing with only a small % of your total bankroll and adjust up/down depending on your total bankroll during play. Some suggest playing with 1% of your total bankroll; others suggest playing with as much as 10%. I suggest never having more than 5% of your bankroll in play.

Quote: CrapsForever

I suggest never having more than 5% of your bankroll in play.

Can I ask, why? Your risk of ruin is 100% either way (assuming that your bankroll is fixed). Is it just that you want your money to last a certain amount of time before it runs out (or gets to the point where you can no longer make a minimum bet?)

I would usually suggest to people that they have an "entertainment budget" of how much they are willing to spend on -EV gambling, and use that money. Of course how much is reasonable depends on your income, expenses, and financial goals, but I think that it's probably a good idea for most people to spend SOME money on entertainment. All work and no play is not a good way to live :)

[ edit: added quote ]

Quote: odiousgambit

You have a dice teacher?

He's a dealer.

Quote: NicksGamingStuff

Although the math does not agree, my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets, because place bets only need to hit once, and come bets need to hit twice.

I think I know your dice teacher...

A word of warning: I did exactly this at Main Street Station recently. $1000 buy-in, $5 come bets with 10x odds on everything. (Even though they allow 20x odds). Busted out in less than one dealer push. So there, that's a "fuck you world" session for ya'. I had to dig for the tip.

Quote: teddys

I think I know your dice teacher...

A word of warning: I did exactly this at Main Street Station recently. $1000 buy-in, $5 come bets with 10x odds on everything. (Even though they allow 20x odds). Busted out in less than one dealer push. So there, that's a "fuck you world" session for ya'. I had to dig for the tip.

That is obviously very unlucky, but I believe that the OP said he would only have 2 numbers working at once. It would be VERY difficult to bust out that quickly with that limitation.

Without such a limit, you can have a lot more money in correlated bets out at once, so the swings will be a lot bigger.

This is great stuff. I was going to try out the following system on my next trip:

10 pass with 3x4x5x odds
Buy the 4 and 10 for 25
30 dollar 8 (6 if 8 is the point)

So it's between 100-150 per roll but the key difference is that the 4 and 10 are going to be tougher to hit.

1) same question as op - what do you think is a good bankroll for a session?

2) anyone with any thoughts on the betting strategy. I used to do 15 on 4-6-8-10 and buy to 25 when it hit the first time but I am strongly considering just going right to the buy at the beginning because the odds are better than the placed 4 and 10. That said, I'm going to have about 10k for a 4 day trip and don't want to go broke 5 hours into it. Anyone with any advice would be appreciated.

Figuring out this type of stuff is where WinCraps really has some value.
You can create the autobet file to play the exact way you are going to bet, and then run simulations.

I run a 'session' for 100 shooters. I figure this to be about 8 hours of play.
With your betting strategy coded, set your starting bankroll for $1000, and run 10,000 sessions of 100 shooters.
You can see a graph that shows you how many sessions went bankrupt, and what your mean net loss was.
Now increase your bankroll to $2000 and do it again.

The neat thing about WinCraps is you can seed the starting value, so you can run the EXACT SAME roll sequence, to see how you would have fared with a bigger starting bankroll.
It was very surprising to me the effect of a bigger bankroll, when I tested some of my betting strategies. Sure I had some bigger losses, but I also had less loss in total, which tells me I had some rolls where I lost over $1,000 at some point, but then worked my way back towards even, and perhaps even made it back to positive.

One of my strategies is close to what you are discussing. If I recall correctly, I think I decided $2500-$3000 buy-in was what I needed, to keep my chance of busting out low. However, that is generally my trip bankroll amount, not what I have for a single session.

There is value in picking a bankroll buyin that makes it unlikely you will bust out, BUT, it is not worth it if it causes you to put more money at risk than you are comfortable losing.
I read on here somewhere that people over betting their bankroll is one of the biggest gambler mistakes. I know this is certainly true for me. But that is a risk I understand and am willing to take. It is a necessary evil for wanting to triple my stake.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Figuring out this type of stuff is where WinCraps really has some value.
You can create the autobet file to play the exact way you are going to bet, and then run simulations.

I really need to figure out WinCraps.

I have it, but it is Greek to me.

I would like to figure out the chances of busting out a $1,000 bankroll on a $5 table, 10x max odds every throw. Eyeballing it, I figure it will happen 7-8 out of 10 sessions, with the other 2-3 sessions having a very high upside.

Quote: teddys

I really need to figure out WinCraps.

I have it, but it is Greek to me.

I would like to figure out the chances of busting out a $1,000 bankroll on a $5 table, 10x max odds every throw. Eyeballing it, I figure it will happen 7-8 out of 10 sessions, with the other 2-3 sessions having a very high upside.

I am not very good with WinCraps either, but I think I got this one right.

I set it up to play 10,000 sessions. $1,000 Buy in each session.
EDIT: I set it up to play 1,000 sessions.

A session ended when either:
- the Bankroll dropped below $5
- Or 100 shooters threw the dice - (About 6 hours)

For the 10,000 sessions:
611 sessions - Busted Out
661 sessions lost money

339 sessions won money
245 sessions won >$1010 (.5 SD)
168 sessions won >$1730 (1 SD)
061 sessions won >$3360 (2 SD)
015 sessions won >$5020 (3 SD)
002 sessions won >$6668 (4 SD)
Biggest win $8,050

Thanks.

What happened the other 8,000+ sessions?

Quote: teddys

I really need to figure out WinCraps.

I have it, but it is Greek to me.

I would like to figure out the chances of busting out a $1,000 bankroll on a $5 table, 10x max odds every throw. Eyeballing it, I figure it will happen 7-8 out of 10 sessions, with the other 2-3 sessions having a very high upside.

Okay, I just ran it a second time, but this time I seeded the RNG so that I could run the exact same rolls. (I don't think it worked right though. I would have expected the top win to have been the same every time, if the same roll sequence was occurring.............)

Same conditions.
$5 PL w 10x odds, and a $5 Come bet every time w 10x odds. (Odds were NOT working on Come Out Rolls)

1,000 sessions.
A session ended when either:
- the Bankroll had <$5
- 100 shooters had rolled

$1000 Bankroll
699 sessions lost money
645 sessions busted out
355 sessions won money
217 sessions won >$1000 (.7 SD)
181 sessions won >$1400 (1 SD)
058 sessions won >$2895 (2 SD)
013 sessions won >$4385 (3 SD)
002 sessions won >$5885 (4 SD)
Biggest win $7735

$2000 Bankroll
558 sessions lost money
329 sessions busted out
440 sessions won money
271 sessions won >$1000 (.5 SD)
157 sessions won >$1850 (1 SD)
045 sessions won >$3805 (2 SD)
006 sessions won >$5765 (3 SD)
Biggest win $9420

$3000 Bankroll
546 sessions lost money
124 sessions busted out
452 sessions won money
291 sessions won >$1000 (.5 SD)
150 sessions won >$1975 (1 SD)
037 sessions won >$4000 (2 SD)
005 sessions won >$6017 (3 SD)
Biggest win $9305

$4000 Bankroll
524 sessions lost money
035 sessions busted out
476 sessions won money
303 sessions won >$1000 (.5 SD)
160 sessions won >$2180 (1 SD)
036 sessions won >$4315 (2 SD)
003 sessions won >$6555 (3 SD)
Biggest win $8495

Quote: teddys

Thanks.

What happened the other 8,000+ sessions?

Neither one of us is very good at math ! LOL

I was missing 9,000 sessions.........

I had started the coding at 10,000 but later changed it to 1,000 sessions.

Post about WinCraps RNG seed moved to its own thread by author.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Neither one of us is very good at math ! LOL

I was missing 9,000 sessions.........

I had started the coding at 10,000 but later changed it to 1,000 sessions.

D'oh! I got it now. Sincerely, thanks!

Quote:

A word of warning: I did exactly this at Main Street Station recently. $1000 buy-in, $5 come bets with 10x odds on everything. (Even though they allow 20x odds). Busted out in less than one dealer push. So there, that's a "fuck you world" session for ya'. I had to dig for the tip.

Now that sounds eerily familiar. In a jaeger bomb fueled "I gotta gamble haze" I experienced the same result at the same property. Dropping 2.5k on $5 max odds $5 come max odds spiral of fire bet winnings destruction. I'd say I stumbled away shell schocked but really I just stumbled away another drunk fool!

Quote: dfwbird

Now that sounds eerily familiar. In a jaeger bomb fueled "I gotta gamble haze" I experienced the same result at the same property. Dropping 2.5k on $5 max odds $5 come max odds spiral of fire bet winnings destruction. I'd say I stumbled away shell schocked but really I just stumbled away another drunk fool!

Well, like the Wizard says, "It's not whether you win or lose, it's whether you had a good bet."

Although after I lost, I was thinking more along the lines of "F--- the Wizard!"

:-) :-) :-)