craigrow
Joined: Dec 16, 2011
• Posts: 11
October 12th, 2012 at 10:20:54 PM permalink
I have what I think is a relatively straight-forward question, but not the formulas of information necessary to get the answer. Hopefully somebody can help me out.

I am going to the casino. I want to play craps for ~3 hours. I plan to make \$5 pass line bets with 10X odds and have one \$5 come bet with 10x odds at all times. So, I'll have about \$110 on the table at all times. I want to be 95% certain I will be able to play for 3 hours without going bust.

How much cash do I need?

Thanks.
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3321
October 12th, 2012 at 10:57:03 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
NicksGamingStuff
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
• Posts: 828
October 12th, 2012 at 11:10:47 PM permalink
Although the math does not agree, my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets, because place bets only need to hit once, and come bets need to hit twice.
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
October 12th, 2012 at 11:56:28 PM permalink
Quote: NicksGamingStuff

Although the math does not agree, my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets, because place bets only need to hit once, and come bets need to hit twice.

"What a fool believes..."

Come bets and place bets are apples and oranges.

Come bets, once a point is established for that bet, the number has to ONLY HIT ONE TIME to win, not two times.

"What a fool believes..."

Make 600 come bets, 200 NEVER even make it to the point round.
And of those bets, more win than lose on a 7 or an 11, something those Place bets can NEVER do.

Come bets with 10X odds run winning circles around Place bets any day of the year.

Once a come bet is on a number, that bet and the same Place bet has the same chance of winning.
And for the same action, the come bet because of the 0% HE on the odds pays more than the Place bets.

Place bets are better than the Horn bet, the hardway bets and the over/under 7 bet, IMO.
But at times I will bet all of them at the same time.
"What a fool believes..."

and come bets need to hit twice (to win)
is an all out lie and total BS.
(just like the pass line has to hit twice to win... another sucker bet)

Have a Nice Day!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
October 13th, 2012 at 12:05:09 AM permalink
Quote: craigrow

I have what I think is a relatively straight-forward question,
but not the formulas of information necessary to get the answer. Hopefully somebody can help me out.

I am going to the casino. I want to play craps for ~3 hours. I plan to make \$5 pass line bets with 10X odds and have one \$5 come bet with 10x odds at all times. So, I'll have about \$110 on the table at all times. I want to be 95% certain I will be able to play for 3 hours without going bust.

How much cash do I need?

Thanks.

In 3 hours, depending on how busy the table is, as already mentioned,
you can have a very wide range of bets made and resolved.
This is the key for you.

I have to find my links to my come bet per hour (100 rolls) data.

What kind of bankroll do you think you need??

Someone has given an opinion of being safe at \$2k bank.
My sim for this \$2k bank shows a bust rate of 0.75% and of losing between \$1900 and \$2k about 1.2%
Looks to be very safe.
for \$1k bank, a bust rate of 14.22% and of losing between \$900 and \$1k about 18.90%

I know I have more sims already done for this, but I am tired right now to look at them.

Too much MLB and South Park.

This is very easy to calculate once the variance and number of bets is known or to simulate.
See what other answers pop up.

Quote: craigrow

I am going to the casino...
I plan to make \$5 pass line bets with 10X odds and have one \$5 come bet with 10x odds at all times.
So, I'll have about \$110 on the table at all times.

Not quite.

Per 100 rolls, only 57 rolls, on average,
will have the \$110 total wagers working.
This is because a come bet has to wait.
And if you only make one of them max,
you still have to wait for the current come bet point to be resolved before making another and having that one move to a come point number.

resolved bets per 100 rolls:
30 pass line bets
20 pass line odds bets
24 come bets
16 come bets odds bets

some info here. I have my data that matches Alan's
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1130-how-many-come-bets-is-too-many/5/#post8852

This can still be accurately calculated for RoR,
the average number of bets and the standard deviation,
Your average resolved bet is only \$38.33
(\$5*1/3 + \$55*2/3) = (5/3 + 110/3) = 115/3

but I have to clean up my come bet folder first.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5114
October 13th, 2012 at 12:28:35 AM permalink
New shooter's initial comeout roll: \$50 four working \$50 ten working, \$5 on the line.

Take down one of those bets to fund your \$50 odds bet after a point is established.

Take down the second one of those to fund the odds on the come bet.

After that always work your odds on the comeout roll.

This is the easiest way to reduce the amount of money you need to last longer.

The danger in not having two numbers covered on the comeout is if your best box numbers all happen to fall on comeout rolls and you miss getting paid and the sevens then fall on the non-comeout rolls, and it's seven out instead of seven winner.

It's an issue of balance. Effectively you can win faster and lose faster when the phase of when the sevens occurs goes against or for you. If you just want to play longer (still having a great chance to win!), make sure you have a chance to get paid for two out of four box numbers at all times, not just after the first two box numbers occur after the initial comeout roll.

It may be counter intuitive, but you're more likely to win in the short run with this strategy than with waiting to get \$110 working on the felt until after two box numbers occur with no red's after the comeout roll.

On the comeout roll you will have a 50/50 chance of losing \$100. But you also have a 50/50 chance of winning \$98. It may seem frightening to lose \$100 on sevens during the comeout, but in the long run it actually prevents you from making a bunch of crappy points (4 and 10) that end up not getting made over and over eating up your bank. The 0.33% per roll on the 4 and 10 for \$50 each is \$0.33 per roll when you have \$100 total money working on the four and ten compared to \$0.04 per roll when you have two nickel line bets with max odds. But you get a good service on your short-term volatility reduction for that very short term 33 cents per roll cost if you need that at the time and are worried about getting blown out of the water with a quick drawdown. You can stop doing this once you start winning or if you're just feeling lucky.

You can alternately do the six and eight for \$48 each and have a greater chance of winning in exchange for a slightly higher edge per roll and a slightly lower pay. But if you plan on winning, I recommend the 4 and 10.

If they allow put bets with max odds, there are opportunities to reduce the cost, but in my opinion it's just not worth the hassle of upsetting other people (and confusing dealers) compared to just working some place or buy bets.

You may choose numbers from the 4, 6, 8, and 10 from whatever numbers were lost on the previous shooter if you want to let the dice decide which ones to cover. But just stay away from placing the 5 and 9 if you ask me.

You can do the exact same thing on the don'ts at Mandalay Bay with commission on the win only for paying behind for a lay bet, and you won't have to worry about working your lay odds on the comeout as that's how they do it anyway. But same thing, you can lay the 6 and 8 for \$56 each on the initial comeout roll (even aligned with the right side!) collecting 46 in pay each with commission on the win of \$2 on the comeout roll, then take those \$56 lay bets down one at a time when you fund the \$60 lay on the four or ten, \$60 lay on the five/nine or \$60 lay on the six/eight (they are 345x on \$10 minimums). And you won't have to keep saying "work the comeout with my odds" each time a new dealer appears. Of course your cost for three hours at this is \$32 instead of \$16 because of the \$10 minimums, but you're much more likely to win a little money on the don't side this way without much fear at all of losing if low edge and low volatility are what you're looking for.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8309
October 13th, 2012 at 5:35:45 AM permalink
Quote: craigrow

How much cash do I need?

My experience has been that you can be up or down 10 times your average bet very easily in a session. So I'd say the \$2000 is roughly accurate, but I would add a cushion of another \$1000 [minimum].

I would also be sure to be emotionally prepared to shrug off a loss of 2 grand or more, and find yourself also repeating such losses before wins. It isn't enough to just bring the money.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8309
October 13th, 2012 at 5:36:09 AM permalink
Quote: NicksGamingStuff

my dice teacher suggests doing place beats instead of come bets

You have a dice teacher?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
• Posts: 2101
October 13th, 2012 at 6:42:31 AM permalink
I just wanted to agree that two grand sounds right. I know people have provided you simulations and all that jazz, but I think if you go in with \$1500 that would be good for all but the "fuck the world" sessions.

A \$1000 bankroll is where you're getting into dicey waters.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012