Digitalbuddha
Digitalbuddha
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
Joined: Oct 1, 2012
October 1st, 2012 at 11:36:54 AM permalink
First time poster and I couldn't find how to search threads, so forgive me if this has already been discussed.

I will be in LV later this month and will be playing craps at Casino Royale because of the location, minimums and free odds amounts.

This is the strategy I was hoping to employ:

$3 pass line bet with max odds (20x)

$3 put bet with max odds on the 6&8 immediately after the point is established

My reasoning behind not doing come bets is two fold:

1) 6 & 8 come out most frequently
2) I will miss out potentially winning on the first roll after the point is established.

Am I wrong in my reasoning?

Also, what bankroll would I need for a session? I imagine I would want 10x my maximum bet ($63 x 3 = $189) so would $2000 be enough?

Thanks!
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
October 1st, 2012 at 11:51:03 AM permalink
>I will be in LV later this month and will be playing craps at Casino Royale because of the location, minimums and free odds amounts.
Enjoy it and good luck to you, but realize that 20x is available in several places. That 1000x at Somewhere seems to have been revoked.

>$3 pass line bet with max odds (20x)
Fine.

>$3 put bet with max odds on the 6&8 immediately after the point is established
WHY? Isn't a place bet better?

>My reasoning behind not doing come bets is two fold:
Come bets are virtual Pass Line bets... so whats the diff?

>Also, what bankroll would I need for a session? I imagine I would want 10x my maximum bet ($63 x 3 = $189) so would $2000 be enough?
That will probably be just fine.
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
October 1st, 2012 at 11:57:45 AM permalink
Quote: Digitalbuddha

This is the strategy I was hoping to employ:

$3 pass line bet with max odds (20x)

$3 put bet with max odds on the 6&8 immediately after the point is established

Excellent! Low EV and high variance. Action and Bankroll swings are in your future.
The EV for the $3 put bet is higher than just a come bet, but you need to work that out on your own.
Quote: Digitalbuddha

My reasoning behind not doing come bets is two fold:

1) 6 & 8 come out most frequently

compared to what? I say the 4,5,9,10 roll more often.
Quote: Digitalbuddha

2) I will miss out potentially winning on the first roll after the point is established.

But since the 3rd and second roll for any shooter is the most likely roll to 7 out on, per the distribution of the length of a shooters hand,
you are increasing your chances for a greater loss.
Wins and Losses

Quote: Digitalbuddha

Am I wrong in my reasoning?

depends on your craps religion and what side of the coin you prefer to look at

Quote: Digitalbuddha

Also, what bankroll would I need for a session? I imagine I would want 10x my maximum bet ($63 x 3 = $189) so would $2000 be enough?

Thanks!

Nice question.
I would myself calculate the Expected Value and Standard Deviation for each bet, plan out how many total bets I would make, say over 2 hours of play and work from there.
I do not do Risk of Ruin calculations for others.

There are many threads that already do that and most contain accurate info.
here's one
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/10123-risk-of-ruin/#post154053

Good Luck and have fun!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Digitalbuddha
Digitalbuddha
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
Joined: Oct 1, 2012
October 1st, 2012 at 12:10:42 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff


>$3 put bet with max odds on the 6&8 immediately after the point is established
WHY? Isn't a place bet better?

>My reasoning behind not doing come bets is two fold:
Come bets are virtual Pass Line bets... so whats the diff?



Well, as far as I know, the put bet should pay out better, right?

A place bet on the 6 or 8 of $63 would theoretically pay out $73.50 (7:6)
Whereas a put bet of $3 with max odds would pay out $75 ($3 flat bet plus $72 on my $60 odds)(6:5)

Perhaps I'm wrong.

As far as the second part, the difference between come vs. put is as follows:
My reasoning of not simply placing come bets is I feel I'm "missing out" on the first roll after the point and I also get to chose my number(s).
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
October 1st, 2012 at 12:21:49 PM permalink
Quote: Digitalbuddha

Well, as far as I know, the put bet should pay out better, right?

A place bet on the 6 or 8 of $63 would theoretically pay out $73.50 (7:6)
Whereas a put bet of $3 with max odds would pay out $75 ($3 flat bet plus $72 on my $60 odds)(6:5)

Start looking at the EV for the 2 bets and one can really see a difference.
A $63 Place6 EV = (-1/66)*63 = -$0.95 per decision
A $63 put bet EV = (-1/11)*3 = -$0.27 per decision

The edge is over the total Place bet $
where the put bet is just over the $3, the $60 odds has 0% house edge.

Enjoy your sessions!

Quote: Digitalbuddha

As far as the second part, the difference between come vs. put is as follows:
My reasoning of not simply placing come bets is I feel I'm "missing out" on the first roll after the point and I also get to chose my number(s).

OK.
How will you feel when the first roll a point is established and you get all your bets out and the very next roll is the 7out?
You lost 3 bets instead of one if you had made a come bet.

One can keep going on this way.

Just have fun.
No bet is really better than the rest if they all lose.
Just lose less of them.

added: I looked thru some old sims I had run, playing until bust out,
and found a few that were like your style of play.
Lowest # of rolls to bust a $2k bankroll was 98 (ouch) and highest was 709,640
3% of the bust outs happened between 98 and 200 rolls. Hope you miss those.
The median is 1508.
So you have a 50/50 chance of lasting that long.

Hope you go high and far and show a profit, the high odds gives you the best chance to do just that.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ahigh
Ahigh
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 5197
Joined: May 19, 2010
October 1st, 2012 at 1:28:29 PM permalink
It's my experience that casinos that offer 10x or better odds disallow put bets. I'm not sure about Casino Royale, though. But in either case, you may be having to modify your strategy to do place bets on the 6 and 8.

Getting a better pay by utilizing a put bet is a great strategy, but there's also the thing about every time a new dealer comes in, you're potentially slowing down the table and getting into a conversation about put bets which can possibly not be worth the hassle.

The edge per roll on the 6/8 is already sufficiently low; and I'd say the strategy sounds fine to me.
aahigh.com
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
October 1st, 2012 at 3:14:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

It's my experience that casinos that offer 10x or better odds disallow put bets. I'm not sure about Casino Royale, though. But in either case, you may be having to modify your strategy to do place bets on the 6 and 8.

Getting a better pay by utilizing a put bet is a great strategy, but there's also the thing about every time a new dealer comes in, you're potentially slowing down the table and getting into a conversation about put bets which can possibly not be worth the hassle.

The edge per roll on the 6/8 is already sufficiently low; and I'd say the strategy sounds fine to me.



Once again, I guess it depends on your experiences :-)

I was allowed put bets in Tunica at 10x and 20x odds. I did not try it at the 100x odds Gold Strike. I saw PUT bets made at Cherokee in NC this past weekend at 10x as well.

On the 6,8 there is little difference in the payout of the PUT versus the Place bet.

$5 PUT 6 with $25 odds (5x) pays $35. $30 Place 6 pays $35. Net $0 gain.

$5 PUT 6 with $50 odds (10x) pays $65. $55 Place 6 bet pays $63, so at 10x odds you would gain $2

$5 PUT 6 with $100 odds (20x) pays $125. $105 Place 6 bet pays $199, so at 20x odds you would gain $6

There have been many 'discussions' on this topic, some pretty heated. The math says the way to play the game and lose the least is only play the pass line with full odds and the Come bet with odds, assuming your bankroll can handle the high variance. (Don't Pass and Don't Come for the dark siders).

7craps points out that there is a strong chance of the 7 rolling in the first couple of rolls. When this happens, the Place/Buy/PUT bettor takes it on the chin for a big loss.
However, if a shooter sets a point, rolls a 6, and/or rolls an 8, and then 7 outs, the PUT bettor looks like a genius, and now it is the Come bettor who took it on the chin.
Going back to the math, it is more likely the 7 shows up, rather than the 6 or 8, but not by much. For the number of rolls I will play in my lifetime, anything can and will happen.
(I have donned my fireproofed suit and head sock, so I am impervious to the flames surely headed my way............LOL.)

It really depends on your goals. I am trying to win high amounts of money, rather than play to lose the least amount. I avoid the bets >4% House Edge as much as possible, although I will own up to an occasional hardway and the Fire bet when available.

Personally, I like the more frequent action of the Place/Buy/PUT bets, but use your head. Don't make a PUT bet, if the same amount of money bet would pay you better as a place or Buy bet.

My personal rule is, I decide what numbers I want to play, at what amount, and then strive to make the bet in the way that maximizes my payout. And the bet method changes, always dependent on the current casino's rules. It may mean betting slightly more, or slightly less, so that I can take advantage of vigs being rounded down on Buy bets. Perhaps I add $5 to a pass line, so I can increase my free odds (essentially a $5 PUT bet on a $10 table). I can usually find ways to extract an extra $1 or $3 on most of the payouts to me. I still will most likely lose, but I could have an extra $100 or more in 'winnings' along the way.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
October 1st, 2012 at 3:35:58 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

On the 6,8 there is little difference in the payout of the PUT versus the Place bet.

The OP example $63 place vs. put $3/$60odds
Sure there is little difference in ONE bet.
(But a BIG difference in the EV)

The win diff is $1.50 if one gets paid with 50cents, or $1 if not.
Wow
$1 big difference
who cares.

PlayerA - she wins 2000 put bets in her lifetime for the 6&8
PlayerB - he wins 2000 place 6&8 bets in his lifetime.

PlayerA wins 2000*$1 or 2000*1.5 more than PlayerB

What... $2000 to $3000 is little difference?

The Wizard himself says to make put bets instead of place bets when the odds allowed are large enough.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
"6 and 8: Bettor must combine a put bet with 5X odds to have the same overall house edge of 1.52% as a place bet.
5 and 9: Bettor must combine a put bet with 4X odds to have the same overall house edge of 4.00% as a place bet."

So a put bet, with 6X odds or more is a better bet, by HE, than a regular Place6 or 8.
Care to prove the Wizard wrong on this?

Place 5&9 needs 5X or more.

Come on RC. I see you can do the math.
Prove the Wizard is correct or not correct.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
teddys
teddys
  • Threads: 150
  • Posts: 5527
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
October 1st, 2012 at 3:58:30 PM permalink
Put bets CAN be better than place bets if the odds multiple is high enough. (>5x for 6/8, >4x for 5/9, >19x for 4/10)
----------------------
Put bets are NEVER better than come bets + odds. Much of the advantage in the come bet is in the natural (7/11) winner.
---------------------
That said, putting the 6 and 8 after the comeout is not a bad bet if you take >5x odds. You could do really well if the 6/8 is hitting, and get paid better than a place bet.
---------------------
I am not sure if Casino Royale allows put bets. I've always found them to be too much of a hassle. Fiesta Henderson DID allow put bets the last time I was there, and they have $3 minimums with 10x odds. Sam's Town has $3 minimums with 20x odds, but I don't know if they allow put bets. Good dealers at both places, and a helluva nicer place to play than Casino Royale.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
October 1st, 2012 at 9:21:39 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Quote: RaleighCraps

On the 6,8 there is little difference in the payout of the PUT versus the Place bet.


The OP example $63 place vs. put $3/$60odds
Sure there is little difference in ONE bet.
(But a BIG difference in the EV)

The win diff is $1.50 if one gets paid with 50cents, or $1 if not.
Wow
$1 big difference
who cares.

PlayerA - she wins 2000 put bets in her lifetime for the 6&8
PlayerB - he wins 2000 place 6&8 bets in his lifetime.

PlayerA wins 2000*$1 or 2000*1.5 more than PlayerB

What... $2000 to $3000 is little difference?

The Wizard himself says to make put bets instead of place bets when the odds allowed are large enough.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
"6 and 8: Bettor must combine a put bet with 5X odds to have the same overall house edge of 1.52% as a place bet.
5 and 9: Bettor must combine a put bet with 4X odds to have the same overall house edge of 4.00% as a place bet."

So a put bet, with 6X odds or more is a better bet, by HE, than a regular Place6 or 8.
Care to prove the Wizard wrong on this?

Place 5&9 needs 5X or more.

Come on RC. I see you can do the math.
Prove the Wizard is correct or not correct.



Sorry 7craps, but I have to call you out on this one.

Please quote MY WHOLE POST, not a little snippet that does not correctly portray what I wrote!
Let's compare what I wrote in that section to what you have insinuated I was saying in your quotes above. Does it look the same?

Quote: RaleighCraps


On the 6,8 there is little difference in the payout of the PUT versus the Place bet.

$5 PUT 6 with $25 odds (5x) pays $35. $30 Place 6 pays $35. Net $0 gain.

$5 PUT 6 with $50 odds (10x) pays $65. $55 Place 6 bet pays $63, so at 10x odds you would gain $2

$5 PUT 6 with $100 odds (20x) pays $125. $105 Place 6 bet pays $199, so at 20x odds you would gain $6



Seems to me I am in absolute agreement with supporting a PUT bet over a Place bet, IF one is playing enough odds to get a gain in payout.

I see I missed one little letter in my statement. It WAS SUPPOSED to say,

On the 6,8 there is a little difference in the payout of the PUT versus the Place bet.

Again, later in my post
Quote: RaleighCraps

Personally, I like the more frequent action of the Place/Buy/PUT bets, but use your head. Don't make a PUT bet, if the same amount of money bet would pay you better as a place or Buy bet.


Assuming the total bet amount of a Place bet and a PUT bet are the exact same, AND the payout is the same, you are better off taking the Place bet. Why would I say this? If I decide to pull the bet down, I can take down ALL of my Place bet, but the PUT bet base amount must stay up. Only the odds portion can be pulled down.
I know you know this, but I get paid by the number of words typed. :-)

Quote: RaleighCraps


My personal rule is, I decide what numbers I want to play, at what amount, and then strive to make the bet in the way that maximizes my payout. And the bet method changes, always dependent on the current casino's rules. It may mean betting slightly more, or slightly less, so that I can take advantage of vigs being rounded down on Buy bets. Perhaps I add $5 to a pass line, so I can increase my free odds (essentially a $5 PUT bet on a $10 table). I can usually find ways to extract an extra $1 or $3 on most of the payouts to me. I still will most likely lose, but I could have an extra $100 or more in 'winnings' along the way.



I would have to dig, but a year or more ago, I posted the break even point at which a put bet is favorable over the place bets. I play PUT bets myself, if I get to a point where I am playing 10X odds. I wrote that after watching a guy who was playing the 'perfect' Pass line and Come bet only strategy. He was taking 2x odds. He would have 2 to 5 Come Bets out there, there would be a Come Out winner 7 which meant he lost all of his Come Bets, but he would pay to PUT them back up. He thought he was playing perfectly! NOT! He was giving away money. He would have been better off placing the bets, if he was only taking 2x odds.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote: 7craps


The win diff is $1.50 if one gets paid with 50cents, or $1 if not.
Wow
$1 big difference
who cares.



Really 7craps? You don't care if you get paid $1 more or not? You do realize that over a lifetime of craps, say 5,000 bets resolved, that would mean $5,000 more in your pocket? You can do the math. I am shocked you would have written this statement, but I quoted you directly from your post!

Peace brother. I extend the olive branch. I need you to keep me honest on the math, as I tend to make mistakes, overlook some things, but mostly I don't understand a lot of the statistics and probabilities. But thanks to this site, and a dozen good posters, I am slowly learning. Ultimately, most of us here have the same motive when it comes to craps threads. Help people understand the game of Craps, and ENJOY the BEST game in the casino.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
  • Jump to: