Curse you stats board

e-Craps (electronic everything but the Dice are real), 3/4/5x odds.
I was playing Dark.

Point was 8 and i had max odds. then i look up at the stats board. omg... 8's hit 20times out of the past 100 rolls!!
I immediately took the 8 down, and of course the 7 rolls.

an hr later, the point was 4. the stats board shows that 4s hit 15times out of the past 100 rolls!!! (8's were down to 15 out of 100rolls.)
i took the 4 down, and of course the 7 comes in the next roll.


Curse you stats board! :)

i was up 75% and decided to leave Per the Wizards question of "Was I having any fun?"
The answer was no because of being burned by second guessing myself.

next time i should pick my seat where i cant see the stats board... lol

I have only seen one Organic Craps in CA and the stats it showed were way off, all wrong.
And I compared that to the rolls I copied from each roll on a notepad. It as so obvious.

The Shoot to Win Craps display is better, but still filled with errors.
A simple 100 rolls tracked shows this to be true every time I tested the machine. I have over 30 hours of play on STWCraps.

I only believe what I know to be true.
There may be no gaming regulations stating that any display of past events have to be 100% accurate.
If I was creating a Caps machine, I would purposely make the history data show errors based from the bets on the table.
Many more players out there just like you.

And you took down the whole 8? flat too?
Give away 9% advantage many times, the universe will quickly collapse on all Craps players.

Your mistake was using a 100 roll distribution to determine the very next outcome.
That is the same as comparing an apple to a pile of dog poop

you have to look at the stats board as an explanation of the past, not a prediction of the future.

But you knew that.

7craps:
yes i even took down the flat bet on the 8.
my advantage was 9%?! Link to Wizards calcs?

Quote: odiousgambit

you have to look at the stats board as an explanation of the past, not a prediction of the future.

But you knew that.

yup i knew that but i couldnt ignore it. :(
at least i was diciplined enough to realize it was influcing my play and quit.

Quote: 100xOdds

7craps:
yes i even took down the flat bet on the 8.
my advantage was 9%?! Link to Wizards calcs?

Think of how the free odds play, 2:1 on the 4 and 10, 3:2 on the 5 and 9, 6:5 on the 6 and 8. Gives you an idea what you are giving up darkside to blow it off.

Quote: 100xOdds

yup i knew that but i couldnt ignore it. :(
at least i was diciplined enough to realize it was influcing my play and quit.

I know what you mean. Playing the darkside, there are many times I pile up my betting thinking "the 7 has been missing and is overdue" ... a very powerful fallacy.

Quote: 100xOdds

7craps:
yes i even took down the flat bet on the 8.
my advantage was 9%?! Link to Wizards calcs?

A Wizards link.
Many articles in his Craps section have disappeared or have been moved.
I have NOT gone back thru them because of that.
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/other-bets/
"What would be the house edge of a pass and don’t pass bet after a point is established?
— A.B. from Zion, IL
Answer:
After a pass bet, on a point of 4 or 10, the house edge swings to 33.33%. On a 5 or 9, it is 20%, and on a 6 or 8, it is 9.09%. The player has these same advantages on a don’t pass bet, once a point has been established."
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/

Also:
"In craps, does the house edge change if you make a don’t pass bet then remove it if the point is 6 or 8?
What if you remove it if the point is 6,8,5,or 9?"
— Jon Moriarty from Danville, New Hampshire
Wizard Answer
"You should never remove a don’t pass bet after a point is made!
Likewise you should never made [sic] or add to a pass line bet once a point is made."

I see he did not actually show what the HE is by removing a don't bet after the point has been established.
I can do that here below

First
The math showing the advantage that one is giving up by removing a don't bet is very simple to do.
Once a point is established for the don't
6&8
win: 6/11
lose: 5/11
edge: 1/11 (9.09%)

5&9
win: 6/10
lose: 4/10
edge: 2/10 (20%)

4&10
win: 6/9
lose: 3/9
edge: 3/9 (33.3%)

The answers to the question of the HE if one always removes the 6&8 or the 5,6,8 &9 don't bets

"In craps, does the house edge change if you make a don’t pass bet then remove it if the point is 6 or 8? "

Regular house edge for don't pass (including pushes) = 3/220 (0.013636364)
If one always takes "No Action" on the don't pass 6 & 8 (and many don't players do just that)
The house edge increases to 7/130 (0.053846154) about a 395% increase in the expected loss.

A great move and rationalized by many don't bettors.
Of course this creates an advantage for one that will buy that don't bet.


"What if you remove it if the point is 6,8,5,or 9?"
If one always takes "No Action" on the don't pass 5,6, 8 & 9 (rare to see this type of don't bettor)
The house edge increases to 1/6 (16.67%)
Those that attempt this style of play will lose money very very quickly.



summary:
you gamble with your own money, do as you please.

some can show that actions over time can make one have less fun by winning less and/or losing more.

some have more fun by losing more and winning less