pitchers, dart throwers, craps shooters
I don't know much about dart throwers, but there are pro dart throwers (in England) who are so good it is scary.
The existence of these two types of people, through years and years of training, tells me it is possible to influence dice if one put in as much time. The guys who think they can do it after a week, a month, a year's worth of practice are kidding themselves. They couldn't win a pro dart tournament in the UK with a year's worth of practice. They couldn't even get to AA minor leagues with a year's worth of pitching. It needs a lifetime's worth of training to get to that level.
I think it is possible to influence dice throws, but you have to start really young. Say as a teenager, and then keep practicing it for 1-2 hours a day for a decade. Then maybe you could influence your throws in a casino setting.
So, yes, a darts player, a pitcher and a quarterback all can hit small, precise targets from a distance. A quarterback can hit a small, precise and moving target from 50 yards away.
Dice, on the other hand, are not aerodynamic and not regular. That is, the faces are very different from the edges and corners. And their shape means that they spipn on more than one axis easily.
For all that, I've no doubt with practice one could consistently hit a particualr spot on the table consistently. and if that was all it took, then dice control would be not only real and possible but relatively easy, too.
Alas, it doesn't matter at what angle a dart hits the board, so long as it hits the desired spot. It doesn't matter what part of the football's surface makes contact with the reciver's hands, so long as it amkes contact. But it does matter what faces on the dice end right side up.
And then there's that back wall...
Quote: WupperYou can practice throwing dice all your life. After all the years of practice- you will throw a random number just like I would.
Awwww. Spoil sport !
Quote: WupperYou can practice throwing dice all your life. After all the years of practice- you will throw a random number just like I would.
How do you know it isn't possible?
People do amazing things with years of practice and talent.
It boggles my mind that people are so against the idea...it just really baffles me that people are so hell-bent against believing in the possibility that someone can learn this ability. I can't keep saying how incredible it is to me that people are so closed-minded in this matter. It serioiusly is strange....
But if someone does claim the ability, I think they should prove it.
I spelled it out how they could easily do the test on another thread.
Quote: slackyhackyBut if someone does claim the ability, I think they should prove it.
That's the hang up: no proof.
Counting methods, for games or for side bets, can be proven mathematically. Likewise the advantage gained by hole-carding. Not so dice control. That has to be proven experimentally. That is, by tracking the shots made by dice controllers and comparing them to random throws.
No one, as far as I know, has presented such proof.
On the other hand, the biggest propponents of dice control make money selling DVDs, seminars and books about dice control. You'd think if the techinique was so good an advantage play, they'd be out in the casinos throwing dice in a controlled manner.
And on the gripping hand <w>, most casinos don't mind if you set the dice and throw as you like, so long as you hit the back wall most of the time. Given they'll back off card counters and that they take precautions against hole-carding, if there was anythign to dice control they'd simply forbid setting the dice, or back off all those dice controllers who are out there.
Another possibility is that some people can control the dice, but not very well and not very many people can do so. Anyone can throw a football, but elite QBs in the NFL at any given time are never more than three or four.
That's why.
But I'm open to see proof.
Quote: NareedThat's the hang up: no proof.
Counting methods, for games or for side bets, can be proven mathematically. Likewise the advantage gained by hole-carding. Not so dice control. That has to be proven experimentally. That is, by tracking the shots made by dice controllers and comparing them to random throws.
No one, as far as I know, has presented such proof.
On the other hand, the biggest propponents of dice control make money selling DVDs, seminars and books about dice control. You'd think if the techinique was so good an advantage play, they'd be out in the casinos throwing dice in a controlled manner.
And on the gripping hand <w>, most casinos don't mind if you set the dice and throw as you like, so long as you hit the back wall most of the time. Given they'll back off card counters and that they take precautions against hole-carding, if there was anythign to dice control they'd simply forbid setting the dice, or back off all those dice controllers who are out there.
Another possibility is that some people can control the dice, but not very well and not very many people can do so. Anyone can throw a football, but elite QBs in the NFL at any given time are never more than three or four.
That's why.
But I'm open to see proof.
Absence of proof does NOT equal absence of effect.
But I think we are close to our thoughts on this....I wouldn't believe someone could do it until they did the proof.
However, I am not comfortable with the blanket statement that says it can never be done, or it is impossible. That requires proof as well. Where is that proof? You can't have it both ways.
What is wrong with saying the answer is unknown at this point? Why are people so uncomfortable with that idea?
Quote: slackyhackyHow do you know it isn't possible?
Of course, I don't KNOW it isn't possible.
But, my opinion is strong enough that I would be willing to wager a large sum of money against a "dice controller."
In both Darts and Baseball, there are specific distances and sizes that are consistent in the playing field. The pitcher is 60' from the plate, the mound is supposed to be so high....in darts, the board usd in competition is uniform in dimension and the players are exactly X feet and Y inches away from the board.
The bounce or rebound off the back wall is another big problem with dice that is not factored in to pitching or darts. If the surface was flat and you could practice against a flat back wall, I could see the ability to get the dice to hit the wall in a certain orientation consistently producing a certain rebound effect.
But since the craps tables are not uniform in felt surface, back wall design, etc. I don't know how you could practice from a young age in the exact set of measurements that will be reproduced in a live casino. The back wall with diamond shaped foam represents a particular difficulty since being off even a 1/4" would result in a vastly different angle in the foam being hit by the dice.
If you didn't have to hit the back wall and simply had to loft the dice in the air having them land on a flat surface at least 6-8 feet away from you, I could see how this could be a practiced skill that you could get better at. I would even go along with the liklihood that one could adapt to the particular felt/foam combination used on the floor of the carps table at your local casino (since it is still a flat uniform surface).
It is the rebounding off the back wall at a non uniform distance (depending on the size of the craps table & manufacturing process, i.e. it could be a 12' 2" table or a 11' 11" table and they would both look to the player like a normal 12' craps table) against a non-flat surface where accuracy to 1/4" changes the angle against which the dice rebound that makes the ability to practice and improve this skill impossible to me.
http://manneli.com/movies/fun/Pool%20skills.htm
Yes, I think it is very very unlikely, but I can see it being done IF IF IF practice starts very early in age, and the shooter is very skilled. Take 3 million 10-year old U.S. boys. Have them practice and eliminate half every year. After 15 years, when they are 25, we are left with 180 in the majors, or 16,000 to 1. That doesn't even include the foreigners.
If you take 10 craps shooters, very unlikely that any of them could make it after 10 years of daily practice. But that's the same as taking 10 10-year old boys, very unlikely any of them will make it to the majors, they just don't have the skill.
How many true dice shooters do we have that started at an early age and has rolled every day for 10 years? Likely very few. So it is all a thought experiment.
Quote: slackyhackyHowever, I am not comfortable with the blanket statement that says it can never be done, or it is impossible. That requires proof as well. Where is that proof? You can't have it both ways.
There is indirect proof:
1) The advocates of dice control seem to be amking their money by selling sminars and ancillary paraphernalia teaching dice control, rather than at the craps tables.
2) No big advocate of dice control, as far as I know, has ever submitted as much as a log of his throws.
From these two facts we can deduce that the way to make money at dice control is to sell the system that teaches it. Ergo even if it's possible it's not profitable.
Quote:What is wrong with saying the answer is unknown at this point? Why are people so uncomfortable with that idea?
The fact that we are faced with an unlikley assertion, and are then told to take it on faith. Or, worse yet, are told to pay a grand or two to find out.
And then there's Stanford Wong...
Quote: hhhcccPeople can get incredibly skilled at something. Check these pool shots, they wouldn't seem possible if you hadn't seen people make similar shots before:
http://manneli.com/movies/fun/Pool%20skills.htm
None of those shots had you described them to me before seeing them would I have said were impossible to practice at and get good at.....flat surface with flat bumpers.....when someone can do those shots with diamond foam rail surfaces and also have the cue ball always contact the target ball with the same 1/6th of its surface and I will be impressed.
Quote: ParadigmI can see several problems comparing Darts & Baseball Pitching to shooting dice.
In both Darts and Baseball, there are specific distances and sizes that are consistent in the playing field. The pitcher is 60' from the plate, the mound is supposed to be so high....in darts, the board usd in competition is uniform in dimension and the players are exactly X feet and Y inches away from the board.
The bounce or rebound off the back wall is another big problem with dice that is not factored in to pitching or darts. If the surface was flat and you could practice against a flat back wall, I could see the ability to get the dice to hit the wall in a certain orientation consistently producing a certain rebound effect.
But since the craps tables are not uniform in felt surface, back wall design, etc. I don't know how you could practice from a young age in the exact set of measurements that will be reproduced in a live casino. The back wall with diamond shaped foam represents a particular difficulty since being off even a 1/4" would result in a vastly different angle in the foam being hit by the dice.
If you didn't have to hit the back wall and simply had to loft the dice in the air having them land on a flat surface at least 6-8 feet away from you, I could see how this could be a practiced skill that you could get better at. I would even go along with the liklihood that one could adapt to the particular felt/foam combination used on the floor of the carps table at your local casino (since it is still a flat uniform surface).
It is the rebounding off the back wall at a non uniform distance (depending on the size of the craps table & manufacturing process, i.e. it could be a 12' 2" table or a 11' 11" table and they would both look to the player like a normal 12' craps table) against a non-flat surface where accuracy to 1/4" changes the angle against which the dice rebound that makes the ability to practice and improve this skill impossible to me.
How about a tennis comparison then?
The tennis balls are non uniform. The conditions are changing all the time (wind direction, sun, humidity, etc) and the courts are always different. Yet the very skilled hit the line or very close to it - on the run, jumping or sliding or whatever - very consistently.
I think hhhccc's post makes an excellent point - take 3 million kids, train them from age 6, maybe by the age of 20, 2 or 3 of them could do it well.
I'm just baffeled (as I have said) that so many seem to think that throwing dice in a consistent manner as to ever so slightly change the way they fall - is so much beyond everying thing else amazing professional players do.
But I agree with paradigm - if you are going to pay for a system where someone claims they can do it - let's see the proof first.
Quote: hhhcccPeople can get incredibly skilled at something. Check these pool shots, they wouldn't seem possible if you hadn't seen people make similar shots before:
http://manneli.com/movies/fun/Pool%20skills.htm
Yes, I think it is very very unlikely, but I can see it being done IF IF IF practice starts very early in age, and the shooter is very skilled. Take 3 million 10-year old U.S. boys. Have them practice and eliminate half every year. After 15 years, when they are 25, we are left with 180 in the majors, or 16,000 to 1. That doesn't even include the foreigners.
If you take 10 craps shooters, very unlikely that any of them could make it after 10 years of daily practice. But that's the same as taking 10 10-year old boys, very unlikely any of them will make it to the majors, they just don't have the skill.
How many true dice shooters do we have that started at an early age and has rolled every day for 10 years? Likely very few. So it is all a thought experiment.
A couple months back, I argued the same point in relation to highly competitive basketball players who average more than 40% from the three-point arc during ACTUAL GAME COMPETITION. The physics are astounding as to this achievement.
Controlled craps throwing, to achieve a meaningful statistical result, need only be 'successful' in a small fraction of one's throws. The paradox is everyone who argues against the skill seems to presuppose that the controlled throw should effect the desired result in a high proportion of events. Not necessary.
I'll report back in 11 years with the results.
With that said, I also doubt that person exists today. But I don't think it is impossible that someone can exist with that type of skill level. Maybe not now, maybe in the future.
Quote: hhhcccNo, if you could control dice, you would keep it quiet. Travel from casino to casino, an hour a day and make your 2 grand and go home and masturbate the rest of the day.
Wouldn't all that masturbating have a negative impact on you ability to control the dice?
Quote: hhhcccTravel from casino to casino, an hour a day and make your 2 grand and go home and masturbate the rest of the day. There is no need to let the world know your skill.
Also what "skill" are you referring to? The ability to control the dice for an hour a day? Or being able to to masturbate for the rest of the day? Not sure which one would be more impressive.....
Quote: hhhcccPeople can get incredibly skilled at something. Check these pool shots, they wouldn't seem possible if you hadn't seen people make similar shots before:
http://manneli.com/movies/fun/Pool%20skills.htm
Yes, I think it is very very unlikely, but I can see it being done IF IF IF practice starts very early in age, and the shooter is very skilled. Take 3 million 10-year old U.S. boys. Have them practice and eliminate half every year. After 15 years, when they are 25, we are left with 180 in the majors, or 16,000 to 1. That doesn't even include the foreigners.
If you take 10 craps shooters, very unlikely that any of them could make it after 10 years of daily practice. But that's the same as taking 10 10-year old boys, very unlikely any of them will make it to the majors, they just don't have the skill.
How many true dice shooters do we have that started at an early age and has rolled every day for 10 years? Likely very few. So it is all a thought experiment.
I DID NOT SEE ANYTHING IN THAT VIDEO THAT 10's of THOUSANDS OF POOL PLAYERS CAN NOT DO.
JUMP SHOTS MASSE SHOTS ARE YOU KIDDING ? EQUATING THAT WITH DICE SETTING GET REAL !!!
Quote: midwestgbControlled craps throwing, to achieve a meaningful statistical result, need only be 'successful' in a small fraction of one's throws. The paradox is everyone who argues against the skill seems to presuppose that the controlled throw should effect the desired result in a high proportion of events. Not necessary.
There's an easy way to measure success in dice control: what change to the house edge and EV?
If you get a small player advantage, then it may not be worth it. Kind of like the famous DW machine at the Ditz that pays 101+%, but plays slowly and only plays nickels. It wuold be wroth it for a recreational player, sure. it would be worth it in that sense even if it weren't a player advantage. If you're going to play craps anyway, you may as well get the lowest HE possible.
But it woudln't be worth spending the money and time requried to achieve the skill. Which leads me back to why so many dice controllers sell their method.
In any case, I'm making a firm commitment to myself not to get into any more dice control threads. We've beaten the horse enough to kill it twice already :)
Quote: ParadigmI can see several problems comparing Darts & Baseball Pitching to shooting dice.
In both Darts and Baseball, there are specific distances and sizes that are consistent in the playing field. The pitcher is 60' from the plate, the mound is supposed to be so high
To play devil's advocate, pitchers in baseball are 60' 6" from home plate. Also, I'm not completely sold against DI either, but I wouldn't bet on anyone who brags about being able to control the dice. Anyone who is foolish enough to brag about their abilities at dice probably can't control them very well. to hcc's point, if they could actually control the dice, I'd think they would be very hush-hush about the matter and as he so eloquently put it, have a lot of time to masturbate.
Quote: NareedAnd on the gripping hand <w>, most casinos don't mind if you set the dice and throw as you like, so long as you hit the back wall most of the time. Given they'll back off card counters and that they take precautions against hole-carding, if there was anythign to dice control they'd simply forbid setting the dice, or back off all those dice controllers who are out there.
Some casinos have started doing this. Reference this post.
Quote: Nareed1) The advocates of dice control seem to be amking their money by selling sminars and ancillary paraphernalia teaching dice control, rather than at the craps tables.
IMO this is a red herring and not overly relevant to the discussion. Just because someone does teach seminars and sell books and DVDs, doesn't mean they're not also making a killing at the tables themselves. If I had the skill, I wouldn't hesitate to make as much money on it both ways.
I am just playing devils advocate here. I'm not claiming that I have seen positive proof of dice influencing, but I think the skeptics play it a little bit too hard. I think it may be possible with a lot of practice and a certain amount of innate ability.
Quote: WupperWouldn't all that masturbating have a negative impact on you ability to control the dice?
with that skill level, it shouldn't be hard to learn to be ambidextrous
Quote: buzzpaffI DID NOT SEE ANYTHING IN THAT VIDEO THAT 10's of THOUSANDS OF POOL PLAYERS CAN NOT DO.
JUMP SHOTS MASSE SHOTS ARE YOU KIDDING ? EQUATING THAT WITH DICE SETTING GET REAL !!!
How much time did those 10s of thousands of pool players practice?
Now show me a guy that spent that much time throwing dice. You can't.
Quote: midwestgbA couple months back, I argued the same point in relation to highly competitive basketball players who average more than 40% from the three-point arc during ACTUAL GAME COMPETITION. The physics are astounding as to this achievement.
Ray Allen is really amazing.
Quote: AcesAndEightsIMO this is a red herring and not overly relevant to the discussion. Just because someone does teach seminars and sell books and DVDs, doesn't mean they're not also making a killing at the tables themselves. If I had the skill, I wouldn't hesitate to make as much money on it both ways.
I woulnd't. You risk alerting the casinos to shut you down. You'd be like the dog with the two bones who winds up with nothing.
Quote:I am just playing devils advocate here. I'm not claiming that I have seen positive proof of dice influencing, but I think the skeptics play it a little bit too hard.
Look, this isn't something either complicated or intractable like M theory or the workings of the human brain, nor is it open to interpretation. Any dice controller can easily gather a record of throws and present them as evidence. I'd be satisfied with reliable records of wins. But merely claiming it works while supplying no evidence, it's them who are playing it hard. A lot harder than it need be.
Point, Blank, Period!
Quote: hhhcccHow much time did those 10s of thousands of pool players practice?
Now show me a guy that spent that much time throwing dice. You can't.
Just to be clear, you are saying that given enough practice, someone can:
throw two 3/4" cubes 10' onto a flat surface have them land in such a manner as to control the bounce from the flat surface onto a verticle wall, with a diamond foam surface, both cubes hitting a particular angle on the diamond foam such that they ricochet back down on the flat surface, bounce again and settle in such a manner that a particular side (or sides.....I don't want to be limiting here) of the cubes are favored over other sides based on the orientation of the cubes in the thrower's hand at the beginning of the sequence?
Go for it.....start practicing now......stop wasting time here, you got work to do!
Quote: NareedQuote: AcesAndEightsIMO this is a red herring and not overly relevant to the discussion. Just because someone does teach seminars and sell books and DVDs, doesn't mean they're not also making a killing at the tables themselves. If I had the skill, I wouldn't hesitate to make as much money on it both ways.
I woulnd't. You risk alerting the casinos to shut you down. You'd be like the dog with the two bones who winds up with nothing.
How could they shut down your seminars and DVDs and the like? Dice influencing is not cheating, so there's no legal basis to do so. Sure, they might start backing you off from craps so you can't play in casinos anymore, but you'd still have the ancillary income. The way I see it, the dog would lose one bone, but still have the other.
Quote: AcesAndEightsHow could they shut down your seminars and DVDs and the like?
If casinos ban dice setting, and you can't control the result if you don't set the dice first, then who's going to spend money to learn a method they can't even use? Suppose all casinos shuffled the deck after each hand of BJ. Who'd bother to learn card counting then?
Quote: WupperWouldn't all that masturbating have a negative impact on you ability to control the dice?
Dunno, but it makes you go blind... [I quit when I started needing glasses]
Quote: hhhcccHow much time did those 10s of thousands of pool players practice?
Now show me a guy that spent that much time throwing dice. You can't.
I can teach the average person to do jump shots in less than an hour. Masse may take a little longer, a get a few rips in the felt. But 40 hours max to teach the average pool player.
You don't think that video was shot in one take do you ? And the shots with cue sticks in them , talk about easy with the right person setting them up !
I am slow on the uptake, so please explain.
I am a dice setter who can travel the world and make millions. I sell DVD's and have seminars. If my seminars are successful, not only will I and my students be backed off, or in some other manner prevented by the casinos from winning. But I can recover those losses but having more seminars. ???? What am i missing here ?
Quote: NareedIf casinos ban dice setting, and you can't control the result if you don't set the dice first, then who's going to spend money to learn a method they can't even use? Suppose all casinos shuffled the deck after each hand of BJ. Who'd bother to learn card counting then?
Quote: buzzpaff
I am slow on the uptake, so please explain.
I am a dice setter who can travel the world and make millions. I sell DVD's and have seminars. If my seminars are successful, not only will I and my students be backed off, or in some other manner prevented by the casinos from winning. But I can recover those losses but having more seminars. ???? What am i missing here ?
Okay, we're talking about too different scenarios here.
1) Casinos get wise to it and ban dice setting across the board. This is the scenario both of you have described. Sure, in this case you are SOL and no one is going to pay for your seminars or DVDs.
2) Casinos institute case-by-case backoffs (much as they do currently for blackjack) for known skilled players, but don't ban dice-setting or attempted dice influencing. In this scenario you still have your business even if you get backed off.
I find (2) to be much more realistic (of course both scenarios are in a hypothetical world where dice-influencing is possible and profitable for at least some set of people). Think about all the people who think they can influence the dice, but can't? Same with people who think they can count cards but don't have the discipline: the casinos welcome their action with open arms!
What , you dare question my integrity. You want to bet me $100,000 I can not set dice and win. Well, I would take you up on that, but I have a $200 seminar this week. I am using my last week of vacation from Walmart to teach it.
Quote: buzzpaffStill the same old BULLSHIT. I can will millions doing this, send me $400 and i will teach you how. ROFLMA
What , you dare question my integrity. You want to bet me $100,000 I can not set dice and win. Well, I would take you up on that, but I have a $200 seminar this week. I am using my last week of vacation from Walmart to teach it.
Who wants your money in this thread? Not me.
And at the mercy of some very observant Box Men who are paid to make sure the games stay honest at all cost.Quote: Gabes22One factor you are not stating that a dice setter has to deal with that pitchers and dart throwers don't is that you are at the mercy of the bounce off the back wall.
